Graeme Chamberlin’s research while affiliated with Office for National Statistics and other places

Revised estimates of GDP report that the UK economy grew by 0.3 per cent in the final quarter of 2009. In the services sector, growth was driven by the motor trades, wholesale distribution and other business activities industries. In the production sector, positive growth contributions came from the engineering and allied industries. In terms of the expenditure measure of GDP the main positive impact was in inventories as the rate of de-stocking declined. Household consumption and government spending also grew during quarter four, but gross fixed capital formation and net trade weighed on GDP growth. Retail sales fell due to a large fall in the purchase of automotive fuels in January, partly due to the impact of bad weather on the amount of travelling. However, excluding automotive fuels retail sales continued to be supported by Internet spending and discounting. In the labour market there was a small reduction in unemployment in 2009 Q4, but average durations of unemployment continue to rise. Evidence continues to suggest that younger people have been particularly affected by tighter labour market conditions, showing the strongest rise in unemployment and inactivity rates. Both CPI and RPI inflation picked up strongly in January due to rising motor fuel prices and also the reversion of VAT from 15 per cent to 17.5 per cent.

There has been considerable attention paid in recent months to Office for National Statistics early estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). These estimates provide a timely indication of the evolution of the economic cycle, and there has been particular interest in their reliability, given the potential for theestimates to be revised.This article describes the context in which the offi cial estimates of GDP are produced, and examines the reason for revisions to early estimates. It goes on to discuss how these revisions can best be analysed over different maturities of the estimates and points out some potential pitfalls. Based on this discussion, itoffers guidance on the best approach to understanding the revisions cycle and for interpreting the published information on revisions.The article then presents the results of analysis of a new real time database for GDP growth in the UK, which contains a time series of estimates back to 1961. Over the period since the mid-1990s, revisions have been much smaller than previously, perhaps reflecting the relative stability of the economy over this time.The article concludes by discussing the issues surrounding the use of bias adjustments for GDP.

Flash estimates are early or advance estimates of statistics, usually based exclusively or partly on forecasts. Theyare demanded by policy-makers and analysts who have to make decisions in real time and before enough informationis collected to publish the data conventionally. As such there is a tradeoff between timeliness and accuracy. Thisarticle outlines the approach taken by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to produce flash estimates of Europeanlabour costs, as part of a wider Eurostatled project on flash estimates in Europe. A general-to-specific methodology is used to select the best combination of indicators to use in a forecast model. Flash estimates are presented for the groups of Euro-Zone 15 and European Union 27 countries.

During the last year the global economyhas experienced its most severe recessionsince the Great Depression. This articlecompares the UK experience with thatof OECD member countries – a group ofthe major industrialised economies. Whileimportant economies such as Japan andGermany saw a larger fall in output, thedepth of the UK recession was larger thanthe OECD average. Recent data shows theglobal economy beginning to emerge fromrecession, but the projections are for aweak and fragile recovery as households,businesses and governments continue topay off debts and rebuild their balancesheets. In fact, the major economies couldbe susceptible to a further downturnresulting in a double-dip recession. Thesecond part of this article looks at thefactors underlying recent growth forecastsmade by the OECD and the IMF.

Methods explained is a quarterly series of short articles explaining statistical issues and methodologies relevant to ONS and other data. As well as defining the topic areas, the notes explain why and how these methodologies are used. Where relevant, the reader is also pointed to further sources of information.

This article investigates the impact of the significant rise and fall in UK house prices over the last decade on the balance sheets and behaviour of households – specifically relating to consumption, saving, indebtedness and wealth. Data is taken from the quarterly UK Economic Accounts which records income, spending and saving flows as well as the household sector’s holdings of financial assets and liabilities. This article is intended to follow up on the ‘Recent developments in the UK housing market’ article published in last month’s Economic and Labour Market Review.

This article uses publicly available statistics to describe recent key developments in the UK housing market. These include trends in UK house prices, indicators of affordability, availability of housing finance and the impact of demographic changes on housing needs. A future ELMR article will attempt to explain what impact these housing market developments have had on the balance sheets and behaviour of the household sector. Economic & Labour Market Review (2009) 3, 29–38; doi:10.1057/elmr.2009.141

Core inflation attempts to capture the underlying inflationary pressures in the economy by excluding or down-weighting the more erratic and transitory components of consumer prices indices. Recent volatility in food and energy prices, along with the monetary policy regime of inflation targeting, has increased interest in these measures. However, the Office for National Statistics does not produce estimates of core inflation and neither does the Bank of England target them. This article outlines several ways in which core inflation can be calculated and discusses the issues and judgements involved. Economic & Labour Market Review (2009) 3, 48–57; doi:10.1057/elmr.2009.45

Describes how the commodity flow model can be used for such estimates and discusses advantages and disadvantages of this approachThe UK is unusual among membercountries of the Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and Developmentin using business surveys on investmentexpenditure to estimate almost all nonresidentialinvestment: a demand-sideapproach. More commonly, estimates ofinvestment (or more precisely, gross fi xedcapital formation) are generated usingavailable data on the supply of capitalgoods to the economy – a commodityfl ow model. This article describes howthe commodity fl ow model can be usedto form supply-side estimates of UKinvestment and discusses some of theadvantages and disadvantages of thisapproach. Economic & Labour Market Review (2008) 2, 52–56; doi:10.1057/elmr.2008.155

Develops an estimate for the UK and discusses recent trends in what could be a relevant statisticGross domestic product (GDP) measuresthe volume of goods and servicesproduced by a nation. By adjusting thismeasure to reflect movements in theterms of trade, command GDP describesthe purchasing power of a nation’soutput. For an open economy such as theUK, and given recent developments in theglobal economy such as the introductionof low-cost emerging market producers,large increases in commodity prices andexchange rate volatility, it could be arelevant statistic. This article develops anestimate of command GDP for the UK anddiscusses recent trends. Economic & Labour Market Review (2008) 2, 26–29; doi:10.1057/elmr.2008.136