Graeme Chamberlin’s research while affiliated with Office for National Statistics and other places

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Publications (27)


Data Uncertainty, the Output Gap and Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom
  • Article
  • Full-text available

December 2014

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19 Reads

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1 Citation

International Journal of Economics and Finance

Graeme Chamberlin

It is now widely accepted that early vintages of GDP data are likely to undergo a series of revisions as more information becomes available to National Statistics Institutions. This, however, creates a trade-off between timeliness and accuracy for data users such as monetary policy-makers. This article investigates the importance of data revisions for the operation of monetary policy in the UK. I find data revisions have been smaller in the last decade and early data vintages provide a relatively good signal of data released at a later date. There is though evidence of cyclicality and structural breaks in the data revision process which should caution data users against assuming data revisions are predictable. I also look at the role of the output gap in the practical implementation of monetary policy through the Taylor rule. While revisions to GDP data account for some of the mismeasurement of the output gap, I conclude that it is a relatively small culprit. The main cause of output gap revisions is due to the difficulty in estimating the level of potential output towards the end of the sample where statistical filter methods are generally unreliable.

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Gross domestic product, real income and economic welfare

May 2011

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80 Reads

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13 Citations

Economic & Labour Market Review

As a measure of economic activity, gross domestic product (GDP) is a useful indicator of output and suitable for using in estimates of productivity. However, as a measure of welfare, it has several limitations. This article follows Sefton and Weale (1996, 2005) in producing an estimate of real income ‐ a corrected or adjusted version of GDP ‐ that is linked to current and future consumption possibilities. This measure of real income differs from real (money) GDP by taking account of capital consumption, net income and transfers from overseas, and uses a consumption deflator rather than a general GDP deflator so that output is valued in terms of consumption units.


Table 2 Goods imports from China by SITC classification
Table 5 Composition of China-UK trade in services
China and the UK‐ Changing patterns of international trade and investment

May 2011

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499 Reads

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1 Citation

Economic & Labour Market Review

China's economic growth over the last two decades has been truly remarkable. Averaging near double‐digit percentage growth each year, it is now the second largest economy in the world based on gross domestic product (GDP) and is expected, one day, to overtake the USA and become the largest. China's growth has been predominantly export driven and centred in manufacturing, especially since joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001. This article looks at how the rise of China has impacted on the UK's international trade and investment and also how the continuing development of China may affect these in the future.


Monitoring the coherence between ONS and PMI data - An update

March 2011

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24 Reads

Economic & Labour Market Review

In the last couple of years there has been strong interest in economic statistics as the UK economy recovers from its deepest post war recession. This article updates previous work examining the coherence between official economic data published by the Office for National Statistics and widely-used business survey data in the form of the Purchasing Managers Index to include this latest period.


Okun's Law revisited

February 2011

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99 Reads

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13 Citations

Economic & Labour Market Review

The relationship between changes in output and the unemployment rate is of significant interest around times of recession and economic recovery. This article looks at various aspects of this relationship over time, across various constituents of the labour market and across different countries. The article also explores the interactions between changes in the unemployment rate with the household population, economic activity rate, average hours and labour productivity in accounting for recent output movements in the UK economy and how these compare to previous recessions and recoveries.


Googling the present

December 2010

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63 Reads

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38 Citations

Economic & Labour Market Review

Google Trends data provides weekly reports on the number of search queries made by people in a geographical area and by category. As over three quarters of those who access the Internet regularly are looking for information on goods and services ‐ this information may be a useful indicator of economic activity. For example, the volume of queries may relate to future patterns of spending. This article investigates this use of Google Trends data for various search categories, looking at its correlation with official data on retail sales, property transactions, car registrations and foreign trips.


Methods Explained: Temporal disaggregation

November 2010

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94 Reads

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13 Citations

Economic & Labour Market Review

National statistics institutions often face the task of producing timely data, such as monthly and quarterly time series, even though sources are less timely. Temporal disaggregation is the process of deriving high frequency data from low frequency data, and is closely related to benchmarking and interpolation. This article describes and demonstrates some of the available techniques.


Output and expenditure in the last three UK recessions

August 2010

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42 Reads

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11 Citations

Economic & Labour Market Review

This article describes the main features of the last three UK recessions using the output and expenditure measures of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to reflect supply and demand activity in the economy. The most recent recession saw a similar peak to trough fall in GDP as the early 1980s recession. Both these recessions, which coincided with a period of downturn in the global economy, were more severe than the early 1990s recession where the peak to trough fall in output was relatively modest. The services sector made a larger contribution to the latest recession than before, perhaps reflecting the growing share of the sector in total UK output and its strong growth in the years leading up to the downturn. Falling output of business and financial services were a particular feature of the most recent recession. Looking at the expenditure side, gross fixed capital formation, and in particular business investment, was a greater contributor to the fall in GDP in the most recent recession than in the early 1980s and early 1990s recessions.


Methods Explained: Real time data

June 2010

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17 Reads

Economic & Labour Market Review

Real time data are snapshots of unrevised data available at different points in time. This article provides a literature review on how real time databases can be used to better understand the nature of revisions to economic data, and are also a fairer basis on which to evaluate forecasts and policy–decisions made in the past.


Economic Review

April 2010

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10 Reads

Economic & Labour Market Review

New National Accounts data consistent with Blue Book 2010 shows that the total peak to trough fall in GDP during the latest recession was 6.4 per cent, compared to the previous estimate of 6.2 per cent. Preliminary estimates report that GDP growth was 1.1 per cent in the second quarter of the year, with the strong pickup in growth being driven by the business services and finance and construction sectors – which both contributed 0.4 percentage points to the overall growth rate. New data on non-financial balance sheets shows that net worth in the UK fell during the recession, predominately reflecting lower asset prices (such as for equities and residential properties). New Workforce Jobs estimates show that over 1 million jobs were lost in the recent recession, and a more detailed breakdown by industry, especially in the services sector, is provided. Finally, CPI inflation continues to exceed 3.0 per cent, but around 1.7 percentage points is accounted for by the January rise in the rate of VAT.


Citations (16)


... 4. Discover the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Iraq. 5. Study the current mechanism by which government resources are allocated, and trying to correct them. ...

Reference:

Productive Government Expenditures and Economic Growth
Macroeconomics
  • Citing Book
  • March 2006

... Total economic output of a city or region, reflecting its economic size. This is a measure of the economic prosperity of a country or region, reflecting the economic level of an average resident 46 . GDP is included as a control variable to control for the influence of city size on urban consumption. ...

Gross domestic product, real income and economic welfare
  • Citing Article
  • May 2011

Economic & Labour Market Review

... If the GDP or output decreases, it means the labor demand also decreases in the market, resulting in the growth of unemployment. Okun's theory states that when GDP drops by 2 percent, unemployment should rise by one percentage point (Chamberlin, 2011). However, theoretically, the relation between economic growth and unemployment was described in the early 1930s by Keynes, who stated that "changes in employment should result from changes in economic growth due to aggregate demand and low growth leads to an increase in unemployment" (Meyer, 2017). ...

Okun's Law revisited
  • Citing Article
  • February 2011

Economic & Labour Market Review

... developed a more revised and even shorter scale or instrument with a basic factor structure. They developed one of the latest instruments having four factors ATMI consisting of 40-items, a 5-points Likert scale ranging from 'strongly agree' to 'strongly disagree'(Chamberlin, 2010). Both positive and negative items were incorporated in the instrument. ...

Googling the present
  • Citing Article
  • December 2010

Economic & Labour Market Review

... This was inspired by Cecchetti et al. (2000) who suggested that large and unexpected price changes carry relatively little information about price trends as they are likely to be followed by large idiosyncratic shocks. A notable example of this was suggested by Chamberlin (2009) who noted that highly volatile food and energy prices are often excluded items as they have only transitory effects on the rate of inflation. ...

Methods Explained
  • Citing Article
  • March 2009

Economic & Labour Market Review

... GRDP is the aggregate of gross value added of all resident producer units in the region. It is an important indicator that can be used to measure the size of the economy of the region (Chamberlin, 2010). Hence, the variables that impact the GRDP will be similar to those that influence the GDP. ...

Output and expenditure in the last three UK recessions
  • Citing Article
  • August 2010

Economic & Labour Market Review

... There were hundreds of billions of dollars in the housing market (Stiglitz 2008). The existence of financial innovations such as derivatives encouraged lending (Chamberlin 2009), and a bubble formed in the housing market. Bankers packaged the risky assets as a safe assets and resold them (Mishkin 2009). ...

The housing market and household balance sheets
  • Citing Article
  • September 2009

Economic & Labour Market Review

... Real-time data is a collection of different vintages of GDP which shows the actual data available to users at specific points in time. I use the real-time data set referenced in Brown, Buccellato, Chamberlin, Dey-Chowdhury and Youll (2009) which shows a snapshot of UK GDP taken from monthly ONS publications from 1961 to the current day. The dataset allows us to see how revisions have affected the measured path of the economy over time. ...

Understanding the quality of early estimates of Gross Domestic Product
  • Citing Article
  • December 2009

Economic & Labour Market Review

Gary Brown

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Graeme Chamberlin

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Robin Youll

... Nickell (2006) describes the UK as essentially behaving like a successful venture capitalist by borrowing cheaply in short-term interest-bearing assets and lending longer-term in riskier but higher yielding direct investments. Chamberlin (2009) has also commented on this issue. The US has also experienced a similar phenomenon and various explanations for it have been suggested (see Chamberlin 2008c)-some of which may or may not apply to the UK. ...

Methods explained: Balance of Payments
  • Citing Article
  • September 2009

Economic & Labour Market Review