Gorica Stanojević’s research while affiliated with Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts and other places

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Publications (40)


Zagađenje vazduha u Srbiji (Air Pollution in Serbia)
  • Book

December 2024

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21 Reads

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Gorica Stanojević

Monografska studija obrađuje temu zagađenja vazduha na prostoru Srbije. Urađena je sveobuhvatna analiza stanja kvaliteta vazduha na osnovu raspoloživih podataka i procena. U prvom delu studije su prikazani osnovni pojmovi i fizičko-hemijske odlike atmosfere, pregled istorijata zagađenja vazduha, izvora zagađenja i zagađujućih materija, uticaj meteoroloških uslova na zagađenje vazduha, kao i zakonodavstvo i standardi u oblasti zaštite kvaliteta vazduha. U drugom delu predstavljeni su rezultati analize koncentracija zagađujućih materija za period od 10 godina (2011–2020.) na osnovu raspoloživih podataka iz državne mreže monitoringa na prostoru Srbije. Takođe, prikazani su i rezultati modelovanja uticaja meteoroloških uslova na raspodelu koncentracija zagađujućih materija za isti period. Obrađeni su i podaci o izvorima emisija, sektorskim doprinosima i trendovima, kao i zdravstvenim rizicima od zagađenja vazduha u vezi sa mortalitetom i morbiditetom i percepciji stanovništva o zagađenju vazduha u Srbiji.


Using Machine Learning in Studying the Impact of Solar Activity on Earth
  • Conference Paper
  • Full-text available

October 2024

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43 Reads

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[...]

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Gorica Stanojević

Solar activity can significantly impact the Earth’s atmosphere through variations in electromagnetic radiation and solar energetic particles (SEPs). While the investigation of connections between electromagnetic radiation and Earth’s atmosphere has a long history, recently, there has been a growing interest in research on the rapid impact of SEPs on the weather and climate of the Earth. Entering the atmosphere, fast SEPs originating from a coronal mass ejection and coronal holes can increase ionization rates and affect the atmosphere’s processes. Although the penetration of SEPs into the magnetosphere in the Earth’s polar area is recognized, how exactly they spread and disperse over air masses and move toward the Earth’s surface is still unclear. The recent availability of a large amount of satellite data monitoring the processes between the Sun and the Earth and the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have made it possible to process massive amounts of data and to find precise patterns and trends that are not recognizable using traditional techniques based on known physical laws. Several studies using different ML techniques have been conducted at the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijic” (GIJC) SASA to investigate the functional dependence between factors characterizing solar activity and the occurrence of forest fires, hurricanes, and precipitation-induced floods. The underlying premise of these investigations is that Earth’s atmosphere is affected by any magnetic field energy and particles ejected from the Sun’s geoeffective position. Due to the high risk to people and their property, as well as indications that floods will become more frequent in the future, the investigation of a possible link between solar activity parameters and precipitation-induced floods is of particular interest. In GIJC, floods in the United Kingdom and across Europe have been investigated. Studies used classification ML modeling and took into account the time delay between outbreak SEPs and the effect on the atmosphere. It has been shown that classification ML algorithms are valuable tools for establishing the nonlinear relationship between SEPs and precipitation-induced floods, and they can explain the appearance of the precipitation that may cause floods up to nine days in advance with accuracy between 81% and 91%.

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Intensification of thermal risk in a changing climate: findings from prominent tourism destinations along the eastern Adriatic coast

October 2024

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49 Reads

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1 Citation

International Journal of Biometeorology

The climate and thermal comfort of а destination greatly influence the tourism industry. Therefore, this study was focused on researching thermal comfort changes and their impacts on visitors in four highly visited coastal destinations along the eastern Adriatic coast (Pula, Zadar, Split, and Dubrovnik) from 1996 to 2020, using the modified physiologically equivalent temperature index (mPET). The specific objective was to assess how the thermal comfort conditions are distributed spatially and temporally and how they are suitable for beach and sightseeing tourism. Results showed that monthly mean mPET values have increased, except in May. In the summer season, tourists were often exposed to uncomfortable heat stress, especially in the middle of the day. Strong and extreme heat stress frequency significantly increased in all sites except in Pula, particularly in July and August. Prevailing neutral and slightly warm/cold conditions were concentrated in two periods, between April and June and in September and October. The maximum occurrence of optimal climatic conditions for enjoying the beach was in the summer, with a decreasing tendency from May to August. The occurrence of favorable conditions for sightseeing significantly increased in April and November while it decreased from July to September. Although the eastern Adriatic coast is primarily a summer tourist area, a relatively small number of tourists take advantage of the period with optimal thermal comfort. Despite the fact that the number of tourists in the shoulder seasons has increased significantly in the past 25 years, the increasing favorable thermal comfort in the changing climate conditions will make these seasons even more appealing in the future, especially for sightseeing activities. New strategies for adapting to a changing climate are therefore needed.



An Assessment of the Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of the Glacial Relict Woodpecker Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus

June 2024

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151 Reads

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1 Citation

Animals

The Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus is a rare and endangered woodpecker on the Balkan Peninsula. Despite being widely distributed in Northern Europe, its distribution on the Balkan Peninsula is limited to high-altitude forest habitats, where it represents a glacial relict. Assessing the climate change impacts on its distribution can be crucial for improving the conservation and future survival of this specialist species on the Balkan Peninsula. We used species distribution modelling (SDM) to identify its potential distribution in the past (last interglacial and last glacial maximum), present, and future (2050 and 2070). Our results indicate that this species had the greatest distribution during the last glacial maximum, after which its distribution contracted to areas where suitable environment persisted (high altitudes). The largest territory of the Balkan Peninsula has an unsuitable environment for the species to inhabit, while highly suitable habitats have the smallest share in the total area of suitable habitats. All future models show a decrease in the area of suitable habitats compared with the current period, indicating that global warming has a negative effect on the distribution of the species. We recommend that conservation activities must be of greater extent to ensure the species’ survival in the Balkans.


Program and Abstract Book-Porto-2024

For decades, Serbia has been struggling with cardiovascular mortality (CVM) as the leading cause of death. The unfavorable age structure of the population, lifestyle habits, access to health care, and increasingly pronounced temperature amplitudes contributed to this unenviable situation. Serbia is characterized by certain physical-geographic and socio-economic spatial disparities, so the differentiation of CVM is noticeable at lower territorial levels. The mentioned differences may influence spatial variations in the intensity of the associated factors' effects on CVM. This paper used Geographically Weighted Regression modeling to determine spatial variation in relationships between factors (demographic, socio-economic, and health), as explanatory variables, and cardiovascular mortality, as a dependent variable. The study was carried out with data from 2022, as the most recent available, at the municipality level (LAU 1). The findings revealed the variations in the relationships between explanatory variables and CVM at the local level, as well as differences in direction and strength in those relationships. The cartographic visualization of the obtained results enabled us to identify the leading factors influencing the CVM in each municipality (168 units). The findings are significant because they focus on the lower territorial levels, providing insight for decision-makers to develop place-specific (local) strategies for CVM prevalence and reduction.


IMPORTANCE OF SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELLING IN NATURE CONSERVATION: CASE STUDY OF GLACIAL RELICT THREE-TOED WOODPECKER „PICOIDES TRIDACTYLUS“

January 2024

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12 Reads

Identifying geographic areas with habitats suitable for the presence of priority species is of essential importance in conservation planning. A useful tool to identify these areas is a species distribution modelling (SDM), which is a method that defines statistical relationship between species records and environmental variables in the localities where the species is present. To test the possibility of applying this method in conservation planning, this study focused on the Three-toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus (Linnaeus, 1758) (Piciformes: Picidae) because it is a glacial relict on the Balkan Peninsula that is distributed only in montane coniferous and mixed forests with significant amounts of dead wood. As a habitat specialist, it is vulnerable to environmental changes, making it a suitable indicator species for forests with natural properties. These forests are threatened by modern forestry which removes the dead wood necessary for the Three-toed Woodpecker’s survival, and land-use changes, such as urbanisation of mountains. Moreover, as a glacial relict, this species is threatened by global warming which represents a challenge for its future survival. The results show that highly and moderately suitable habitats (habitat categories essential for specialist species) have the smallest areas in total suitability of the Balkan Peninsula. Along with their limited presence, what makes conservation of these habitats more difficult is the fact that their distribution is mostly fragmented. For these reasons, ensuring their preservation and connectivity of given habitats should become a conservation priority. Geographic areas deemed important by SDM, such as the Dinarides mountain range in our case study, can be used as a focus for further research and field trips, thereby saving both time and resources. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on species distribution by creating future projections using global climate models. Distribution models can also be used to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas. These examples demonstrate that using SDM can produce the knowledge necessary for conservation, which makes this method useful in nature conservation and planning.


An Assessment of the Multidimensional Drivers and Determinants of Public Risk Perception of and Behaviors Related to Exposure to Air Pollution in Serbia

December 2023

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132 Reads

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2 Citations

Sustainability

This study investigates factors contributing to public perception of and behaviors related to air pollution in Serbia. A range of multidimensional indicators, including demographic and socioeconomic features, health status data, and living environment factors, were utilized to evaluate observed awareness and exposure activities. Air pollution is a serious health concern in many areas of Serbia, particularly during the cold season when emissions from the heating sector contribute to high levels of particulate matter. In the period from March to May 2023, a nationwide survey was conducted to gather empirical data and insights that can assist policymakers in the creation of public-health strategies. A set of research questions included the perception of air-pollution impact and citizens’ responses to eight pre-defined exposure-reduction activities. Statistical procedures (a chi-square test of independence, a Mann–Whitney U test, and a Kruskal–Wallis H test) were applied to isolate driving factors in the public response to increased air-pollution levels. The findings suggest a “gap” between risk understanding and risk-reducing behaviors. To address this issue and to ensure that regulations are implemented effectively, it is crucial to prioritize education, develop communication strategies, increase local interventions, and target vulnerable population groups.


Health risks of extended exposure to low-level UV radiation – An analysis of ground-based and satellite-derived data

July 2022

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124 Reads

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14 Citations

The Science of The Total Environment

This study aims to indicate the importance of revising current health recommendations concerning the duration of exposure and individual sensitivity of the skin to solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation. For this purpose, a 16-year data series (2005–2020) of erythemal radiant exposure (Her) and UV index (UVI) for Serbia was analyzed. The UV-related risk was estimated for lighter skin (skin phototypes I-IV) under prolonged exposure on days when maximum UVI was below the recommended protection threshold (UVIlow days, for UVI < 3). Risk assessment was performed for seasonal exposure using satellite-derived data (OMUVBd product) previously validated by ground-based measurements in Novi Sad. The assessment of harmful effects included an analysis of the relation between the daily maximum UVI and the corresponding daily Her, the occurrence of UVIlow days, the exceedance of minimal erythema dose (MED), and the minimum duration of exposure to induce erythema (tMED) for all lighter skin phototypes. It was found that the share of UVIlow days in the total number of days in Serbia increases with the latitude, with the highest percentage in winter (up to 69.454%) and the lowest in summer (up to 3.468%). The results show that the daily Her frequently exceeded the harmful threshold for lighter skin phototypes I-IV (on average by 91.521, 84.923, 70.556, and 56.515%, respectively) on UVIlow days. It was found that prolonged exposure on days with a maximum of UVI = 2 poses a significant risk of erythema for all lighter skin phototypes, even for a duration of 3 h in the middle of the day, as well as medium risk for UVI = 1, and an absence of risk for UVI = 0. The results suggest that health recommendations should be revised, especially in the mid-latitudes, where the share of UVIlow days is large, and in areas where the population is predominantly lighter-skinned.


Summary of composite indicators and outputs [9].
HOW TO CATCH DEPOPULATION IN SERBIA? ALTERNATIVE APPROACH FOR DETECTION AND MONITORING

Citations (26)


... Kostianaia and Kostianoy (2021), Karadeniz'deki iklim değişikliğinin kısa vadede deniz suyu ve havanın ısınmasını beraberinde getirerek kıyı turizminin gelişmesini destekleyeceğini belirtmişlerdir. Hırvatistan'ın Adriyatik Denizi kıyısındaki dört şehrin (Pula, Zadar, Split ve Dubrovnik) incelendiği bir çalışmada ise, değişen iklim şartları sebebiyle termal konforun daha uygun hale geldiği ve bu şehirlerin çekiciliklerinin daha da artacağı bildirilmiştir (Malinović-Milićević et al. 2025). ...

Reference:

Sıcaktan Kaçış Turizmi Zonguldak'ta Turizm Pazarlamasına Katkılar
Intensification of thermal risk in a changing climate: findings from prominent tourism destinations along the eastern Adriatic coast
  • Citing Article
  • October 2024

International Journal of Biometeorology

... Their successful implementation would ensure a reduction in emissions from large emitters, traffic, local communities, and households. Raising awareness among people about the negative effects of pollution on health is an important segment in the prevention of negative effects [52]. This is acknowledged in the fourth objective of the National Program [48]. ...

An Assessment of the Multidimensional Drivers and Determinants of Public Risk Perception of and Behaviors Related to Exposure to Air Pollution in Serbia

Sustainability

... The existing spatial inequalities in the territory of Serbia arose from intensive polarization and administrative centralization as the main causes, manifested through the economic imbalances and devastation, social exclusion and poverty, limited infrastructure accessibility and peripheralization, publicsocial marginalization, etc. (Drobnjaković, Panić & Đorđević, 2016;Drobnjaković & Panić, 2024). Serbia is an example of an urban-centric development with completely marginalized rural areas and continuously increasing gaps in living conditions, development prospects, and perspectives between urban and rural areas (Perišić, 1985;Petovar, 2003;Đorđević & Panić, 2007;Panić et al., 2022). In previous decades, attention has been focused on urban areas, while turbulent structural changes, interventions, and control of the development of rural areas have been neglected (Drobnjaković & Panić, 2024). ...

Nighttime lights-innovative approach for identification of temporal and spatial changes in population distribution

Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic SASA

... Measuring solar UV radiation is important because of its effect on the environment and human health [11][12][13]. UV radiation may increase on the Earth's surface because of the depletion of ozone layer [14,15]. Total UV radiation strongly depends on clouds and, to a lesser degree, on atmospheric aerosols [16][17][18]. ...

Health risks of extended exposure to low-level UV radiation – An analysis of ground-based and satellite-derived data
  • Citing Article
  • July 2022

The Science of The Total Environment

... Rural tourism involves a diverse range of activities based on the cultural and natural resources available in non-urban areas. Much has been written on the longstanding practices of agritourism and farm holidays as forms of accommodation that supplement campsites and B&B-type establishments by offering close to or involvement in agricultural activities (Ammirato et al., 2020), and similarly an extensive literature exists on spas and wellness that are often located away from the hustle and bustle of urban life (Drobnjaković et al., 2022;Dryglas & Smith, 2023). While hiking holidays have a longstanding association with the countryside, increasingly other forms of activity-driven tourism (cycling, mountain-biking, climbing) have gained increasing importance as ways of enjoying the natural environment and the cultural landscape away from built-up areas (Lane & Kastenholz, 2015;Palang et al., 2017). ...

Detection of the Seasonally Activated Rural Areas

Sustainability

... Multiple studies on the effects of erosion control works at the national, regional [23][24][25][26][27][28] and global levels indicate their significance in reducing soil erosion intensity [29][30][31][32][33]. Technical works provide the desired results in a shorter time period, while biological and biotechnical works provide a long-lasting solution to erosion and sedimentation issues within the watershed. ...

Estimation of soil erosion dynamics using remote sensing and SWAT in Kopaonik National Park, Serbia

Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic SASA

... Considering precipitation amount, the country can be divided into three regions: the driest sub-region in the northern part, which is the principal agricultural region, the wettest in the western and southwestern part where most of hydroelectrical plants are located, and the dry to moderate precipitation sub-region in the southern part of the country (Amiri and Gocić 2021a). The rainiest months of the year are May and June, with a secondary maximum in November/December, while February is the driest month (Amiri and Gocić 2021a;Milovanović et al. 2022). The transient type of pluviometric regime is present in Negotinska Krajina, where the values of the maximum in November/December and May/ June are very close or practically equal (Milovanović et al. 2017a). ...

Climate of
  • Citing Chapter
  • January 2022

... For example, Zhou et al. (2023) used the geographically and temporally weighted regression model to assess the impacts of socio-economic indicators and meteorological conditions on O 3 concentration. Various methods, such as model simulation (Ma et al., 2022), multiple linear regression methods (Jing et al., 2023), filtering statistics (Carvalho et al., 2022;Wise & Comrie, 2005), and machine learning (Gao et al., 2021a(Gao et al., , 2021bKang et al., 2021) are adopted to distinguish the contributions of emission sources and meteorological conditions on O 3 concentration. These methods explained the complex interactions between emission sources and meteorology in influencing O 3 levels (Gao et al., 2021a(Gao et al., , 2021bWang et al., 2019). ...

Prediction of tropospheric ozone concentration using artificial neural networks at traffic and background urban locations in Novi Sad, Serbia

... Regarding the non-benefit criterion of the distance from the road network (C4), to minimize the costs associated with the establishment of new access roads, wind farms should be situated as close as possible to the existing road network. The majority of wind farm siting analyses conclude that sites located a long distance away from roadways are less preferable than locations in close proximity to roads (e.g., [31,50,52,54]). The shorter the distance is from the road network, the more suitable the site is for deploying a wind farm. ...

A GIS-MCDA BASED ASSESSMENT FOR SITING WIND FARMS AND ESTIMATION OF THE TECHNICAL GENERATION POTENTIAL FOR WIND POWER IN SERBIA
  • Citing Article
  • January 2021

International Journal of Green Energy

... These parameters represent solar wind and activity variability and are previous research. All the parameters used in this study are used in the investig dependencies between forest fires and solar activity [59,60], while some of them MeV, solar wind, and 10.7 cm radio flux) were used in the research of the rela between solar activity and hurricanes [10,61]. Since previous research showe causal link exists, in this research we attempted to examine if there is a conne tween these parameters of solar activity and precipitation-induced floods. ...

Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece

Sustainability