Giulia Seghezzo’s research while affiliated with UK Health Security Agency and other places

Background: The Emergency Care Data Set (ECDS) provides insight into emergency care activity in England, and combined with COVID-19 surveillance data, can provide new insights into acute COVID-19 infection. Methods: This study identified individuals <18 years old who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between February 2020 and March 2023 and attended emergency care 1-14 days after a positive test. The main objective of the study was to explore emergency department (ED) attendance outcomes by demographic characteristics. Results: There were significant differences (p < 0.05) across most of the characteristics of <18s admitted to hospital from emergency departments, and those who were discharged from ED. <18s in IMD decile 1 (14.9%) made up the highest proportion of admissions, with those in less deprived areas having a greater proportion of individuals discharged from ED. February to August 2020 (1.5%) and September 2022 to March 2023 (2.8%) saw the highest proportion of <18 cases attending ED, though the highest number of cases were seen between September 2021 and February 2022. Conclusions: There is great value in the use of ECDS. It facilitates quick, regular insights into the health outcomes of key demographics, and provides a window into the health-seeking behaviours of individuals. Furthermore, outcomes of emergency care attendance can potentially inform assessments of infection severity across multiple demographics during outbreaks and pandemics.

Since the emergence of Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2021, a number of sub-lineages have arisen and circulated internationally. Little is known about the relative severity of Omicron sub-lineages BA.2.75, BA.4.6, and BQ.1. We undertook a case–control analysis to determine the clinical severity of these lineages relative to BA.5, using whole genome sequenced, PCR-confirmed infections, between 1 August 2022 and 27 November 2022, among those who presented to emergency care in England 14 days after and up to one day prior to the positive specimen. A total of 10,375 episodes were included in the analysis; of which, 5,207 (50.2%) were admitted to the hospital or died. Multivariable conditional regression analyses found no evidence of greater odds of hospital admission or death among those with BA.2.75 (odds ratio (OR) = 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.84–1.09) and BA.4.6 (OR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.88– 1.17) or BQ.1 (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.94–1.13) compared to BA.5. Future lineages may not follow the same trend and there remains a need for continued surveillance of COVID-19 variants and their clinical outcomes to inform the public health response.

Since the emergence of Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2021, a number of sub-lineages have arisen and circulated internationally. Little is known about the relative severity of Omicron sub-lineages BA.2.75, BA.4.6 and BQ.1. We undertook a case-control analysis to determine the clinical severity of these lineages relative to BA.5, using whole genome sequenced, PCR-confirmed infections, between 1 August 2022 to 27 November 2022, among those who presented to emergency care in England 14 days after and up to one day prior to the positive specimen. A total of 10,375 episodes were included in the analysis, of which 5,207 (50.2%) were admitted to hospital or died. Multivariable conditional regression analyses found no evidence for greater odds of hospital admission or death among those with BA.2.75 (OR= 0.96, 95% CI: 0.84 to 1.09), and BA.4.6 (OR= 1.02, 95% CI: 0.88 to 1.17) or BQ.1 (OR= 1.03, 95 % CI: 0.94 to 1.13) compared to BA.5. Future lineages may not follow the same trend and there remains a need for continued surveillance of COVID-19 variants and their clinical outcomes to inform the public health response.

Background Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are rare in children and young people (CYP). The high rates of asymptomatic and mild infections complicate assessment of cause of death in CYP. We assessed the cause of death in all CYP with a positive Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test since the start of the pandemic in England. Methods and findings CYP aged <20 years who died within 100 days of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between 01 March 2020 and 31 December 2021 in England were followed up in detail, using national databases, surveillance questionnaires, post-mortem reports, and clinician interviews. There were 185 deaths during the 22-month follow-up and 81 (43.8%) were due to COVID-19. Compared to non-COVID-19 deaths in CYP with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, death due to COVID-19 was independently associated with older age (aOR 1.06 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.11, p = 0.02) and underlying comorbidities (aOR 2.52 95% CI 1.27 to 5.01, p = 0.008), after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity group, and underlying conditions, with a shorter interval between SARS-CoV-2 testing and death. Half the COVID-19 deaths (41/81, 50.6%) occurred within 7 days of confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection and 91% (74/81) within 30 days. Of the COVID-19 deaths, 61 (75.3%) had an underlying condition, especially severe neurodisability (n = 27) and immunocompromising conditions (n = 12). Over the 22-month surveillance period, SARS-CoV-2 was responsible for 1.2% (81/6,790) of all deaths in CYP aged <20 years, with an infection fatality rate of 0.70/100,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections in this age group estimated through real-time, nowcasting modelling, and a mortality rate of 0.61/100,000. Limitations include possible under-ascertainment of deaths in CYP who were not tested for SARS-CoV-2 and lack of direct access to clinical data for hospitalised CYP. Conclusions COVID-19 deaths remain extremely rare in CYP, with most fatalities occurring within 30 days of infection and in children with specific underlying conditions.

The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 became the globally dominant variant in early 2022. A sub-lineage of the Omicron variant (BA.2) was identified in England in January 2022. Here, we investigated hospitalisation and mortality risks of COVID-19 cases with the Omicron sub-lineage BA.2 (n = 258,875) compared to BA.1 (n = 984,337) in a large cohort study in England. We estimated the risk of hospital attendance, hospital admission or death using multivariable stratified proportional hazards regression models. After adjustment for confounders, BA.2 cases had lower or similar risks of death (HR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.71–0.90), hospital admission (HR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.83–0.94) and any hospital attendance (HR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.95–1.01). These findings that the risk of severe outcomes following infection with BA.2 SARS-CoV-2 was slightly lower or equivalent to the BA.1 sub-lineage can inform public health strategies in countries where BA.2 is spreading.

Background Reinfection after primary SARS-CoV-2 infection is uncommon in adults, but little is known about the risks, characteristics, severity, or outcomes of reinfection in children. We aimed to assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in children and compare this with the risk in adults, by analysis of national testing data for England. Methods In our prospective, national surveillance study to assess reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 in children in England, we used national SARS-CoV-2 testing data to estimate the risk of reinfection at least 90 days after primary infection from Jan 27, 2020, to July, 31, 2021, which encompassed the alpha (B.1.1.7) and delta (B.1.617.2) variant waves in England. Data from children up to age 16 years who met the criteria for reinfection were included. Disease severity was assessed by linking reinfection cases to national hospital admission data, intensive care admission, and death registration datasets. Findings Reinfection rates closely followed community infection rates, with a small peak during the alpha wave and a larger peak during the delta wave. In children aged 16 years and younger, 688 418 primary infections and 2343 reinfections were identified. The overall reinfection rate was 66·88 per 100 000 population, which was higher in adults (72·53 per 100 000) than children (21·53 per 100 000). The reinfection rate after primary infection was 0·68% overall, 0·73% in adults compared with 0·18% in children age younger than 5 years, 0·24% in those aged 5–11 years, and 0·49% in those aged 12–16 years. Of the 109 children admitted to hospital with reinfection, 78 (72%) had comorbidities. Hospital admission rates were similar for the first (64 [2·7%] of 2343) and second episode (57 [2·4%] of 2343) and intensive care admissions were rare (seven children for the first episode and four for reinfections). There were 44 deaths within 28 days after primary infection (0·01%) and none after reinfection. Interpretation The risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection is strongly related to exposure due to community infection rates, especially during the delta variant wave. Children had a lower risk of reinfection than did adults, but reinfections were not associated with more severe disease or fatal outcomes. Funding UK Health Security Agency.

Objective We aimed to look at the burden of disease caused by SARS-COV-2 reinfections and identified potential risk factors for disease severity. Methods We used national surveillance data to collect information on all SARS-CoV-2 primary infection and suspected reinfection cases between January 2020 until early May 2021. Reinfection cases were positive COVID-19 PCR or antigen test, 90 days after their first COVID-19 positive test. We collected information on case demographics, hospital and ICU admission, immunisation status and if individuals were at risk of complication for COVID-19. Results Deaths reported within 28 days of testing positive were 61% (95% confidence interval: 56% to 65%) lower in suspected COVID-19 reinfection than primary infection cases. In the unvaccinated cohort, reinfections were associated with 49% (37% to 58%) lower odds of hospital admission in cases aged 50 to 65 years in the population not identified at risk of complication for COVID-19, and 34% (17% to 48%) in those at risk. ICU admission at reinfection compared to primary infection decreased 76% (55% to 87%). Individuals at risk and those aged below 50 years, who received at least 1 dose of vaccine against COVID-19, were 62% (39% to 74%) and 58% (24% to 77%) less likely to get admitted to hospital at reinfection, respectively. Conclusion Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with lower odds of dying, and both prior infection and immunisation showed a protective effect against severe disease in selected populations. Older age, sex and underlying comorbidities appeared as principal risk factors for illness severity at reinfection. Funding PHE/UKHSA