Gianmarco De Francisci Morales’s research while affiliated with ISI Foundation and other places

Climate activism is crucial in stimulating collective societal and behavioral change towards sustainable practices through political pressure. Although multiple factors contribute to the participation in activism, their complex relationships and the scarcity of data on their interactions have restricted most prior research to studying them in isolation, thus preventing the development of a quantitative, causal understanding of why people approach activism. In this work, we develop a comprehensive causal model of how and why Reddit users engage with activist communities driving mass climate protests (mainly the 2019 Earth Strike, Fridays for Future, and Extinction Rebellion). Our framework, based on Stochastic Variational Inference applied to Bayesian Networks, learns the causal pathways over multiple time periods. Distinct from previous studies, our approach uses large-scale and fine-grained longitudinal data (2016 to 2022) to jointly model the roles of sociodemographic makeup, experience of extreme weather events, exposure to climate-related news, and social influence through online interactions. We find that among users interested in climate change, participation in online activist communities is indeed influenced by direct interactions with activists and largely by recent exposure to media coverage of climate protests. Among people aware of climate change, left-leaning people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds are particularly represented in online activist groups. Our findings offer empirical validation for theories of media influence and critical mass, and lay the foundations to inform interventions and future studies to foster public participation in collective action.

We introduce Polaris, a network null model for colored multi-graphs that preserves the Joint Color Matrix. Polaris is specifically designed for studying network polarization, where vertices belong to a side in a debate or a partisan group, represented by a vertex color, and relations have different strengths, represented by an integer-valued edge multiplicity. The key feature of Polaris is preserving the Joint Color Matrix (JCM) of the multigraph, which specifies the number of edges connecting vertices of any two given colors. The JCM is the basic property that determines color assortativity, a fundamental aspect in studying homophily and segregation in polarized networks. By using Polaris, network scientists can test whether a phenomenon is entirely explained by the JCM of the observed network or whether other phenomena might be at play. Technically, our null model is an extension of the configuration model: an ensemble of colored multigraphs characterized by the same degree sequence and the same JCM. To sample from this ensemble, we develop a suite of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, collectively named Polaris-*. It includes Polaris-B, an adaptation of a generic Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, and Polaris-C, a faster, specialized algorithm with higher acceptance probabilities. This new null model and the associated algorithms provide a more nuanced toolset for examining polarization in social networks, thus enabling statistically sound conclusions.

The interaction between social norms and gender roles prescribes gender-specific behaviors that influence moral judgments. Here, we study how moral judgments are biased by the gender of the protagonist of a story. Using data from r/AITA, a Reddit community with 17 million members who share first-hand experiences seeking community judgment on their behavior, we employ machine learning techniques to match stories describing similar situations that differ only by the protagonist's gender. We find no direct causal effect of the protagonist's gender on the received moral judgments, except for stories about ``friendship and relationships'', where male protagonists receive more negative judgments. Our findings complement existing correlational studies and suggest that gender roles may exert greater influence in specific social contexts. These results have implications for understanding sociological constructs and highlight potential biases in data used to train large language models.

Despite the widespread adoption of higher-order mathematical structures such as hypergraphs, methodological tools for their analysis lag behind those for traditional graphs. This work addresses a critical gap in this context by proposing two microcanonical random null models for directed hypergraphs: the directed hypergraph degree model () and the directed hypergraph JOINT model (). These models preserve essential structural properties of directed hypergraphs such as node in- and out-degree sequences and hyperedge head- and tail-size sequences, or their joint tensor. We also describe two efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, - and -, to sample random hypergraphs from these ensembles. To showcase the interdisciplinary applicability of the proposed null models, we present three distinct use cases in sociology, epidemiology, and economics. First, we reveal the oscillatory behavior of increased homophily in opposition parties in the U.S. Congress over a 40-year span, emphasizing the role of higher-order structures in quantifying political group homophily. Second, we investigate a nonlinear contagion in contact hypernetworks, demonstrating that disparities between simulations and theoretical predictions can be explained by considering higher-order joint degree distributions. Last, we examine the economic complexity of countries in the global trade network, showing that local network properties preserved by explain the main structural economic complexity indexes. This work advances the development of null models for directed hypergraphs, addressing the intricate challenges posed by their complex entity relations, and providing a versatile suite of tools for researchers across various domains. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

TikTok has skyrocketed in popularity over recent years, especially among younger audiences, thanks to its viral trends and social challenges. However, concerns have been raised about the potential of this platform to promote and amplify online harmful and dangerous content. Leveraging the official TikTok Research API and collecting a longitudinal dataset of 1.5M videos shared in the US over a period of 3 years, our study analyzes the presence of videos promoting conspiracy theories, providing a lower-bound estimate of their prevalence (approximately 0.1% of all videos) and assessing the effects of the new Creator Program, which provides new ways for creators to monetize, on the supply of conspiratorial content. We evaluate the capabilities of state-of-the-art open Large Language Models to identify conspiracy theories after extracting audio transcriptions of videos, finding that they can detect harmful content with high precision but with overall performance comparable to fine-tuned traditional language models such as RoBERTa. Our findings are instrumental for content moderation strategies that aim to understand and mitigate the spread of harmful content on rapidly evolving social media platforms like TikTok.

Political advertising on social media has become a central element in election campaigns. However, granular information about political advertising on social media was previously unavailable, thus raising concerns regarding fairness, accountability, and transparency in the electoral process. In this paper, we analyze targeted political advertising on social media via a unique, large-scale dataset of over 80000 political ads from Meta during the 2021 German federal election, with more than 1.1 billion impressions. For each political ad, our dataset records granular information about targeting strategies, spending, and actual impressions. We then study (i) the prevalence of targeted ads across the political spectrum; (ii) the discrepancies between targeted and actual audiences due to algorithmic ad delivery; and (iii) which targeting strategies on social media attain a wide reach at low cost. We find that targeted ads are prevalent across the entire political spectrum. Moreover, there are considerable discrepancies between targeted and actual audiences, and systematic differences in the reach of political ads (in impressions-per-EUR) among parties, where the algorithm favor ads from populists over others.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used to sample from graph ensembles. Two graphs are neighbors in the state space if one can be obtained from the other with only a few modifications, e.g., edge rewirings. For many common ensembles, e.g., those preserving the degree sequences of bipartite graphs, rewiring operations involving two edges are sufficient to create a fully connected state space, and they can be performed efficiently. We show that, for ensembles of bipartite graphs with fixed degree sequences and number of butterflies (k2,2 bicliques), there is no universal constant c such that a rewiring of at most c edges at every step is sufficient for any such ensemble to be fully connected. Our proof relies on an explicit construction of a family of pairs of graphs with the same degree sequences and number of butterflies, with each pair indexed by a natural c, and such that any sequence of rewiring operations transforming one graph into the other must include at least one rewiring operation involving at least c edges. Whether rewiring this many edges is sufficient to guarantee the full connectivity of the state space of any such ensemble remains an open question. Our result implies the impossibility of developing efficient, graph-agnostic, MCMC algorithms for these ensembles, as the necessity to rewire an impractically large number of edges may hinder taking a step on the state space.

We study point-to-point distance estimation in hypergraphs, where the query is parameterized by a positive integer s, which defines the required level of overlap for two hyperedges to be considered adjacent. To answer s-distance queries, we first explore an oracle based on the line graph of the given hypergraph and discuss its limitations: The line graph is typically orders of magnitude larger than the original hypergraph. We then introduce HypED, a landmark-based oracle with a predefined size, built directly on the hypergraph, thus avoiding the materialization of the line graph. Our framework allows to approximately answer vertex-to-vertex, vertex-to-hyperedge, and hyperedge-to-hyperedge s-distance queries for any value of s. A key observation at the basis of our framework is that as s increases, the hypergraph becomes more fragmented. We show how this can be exploited to improve the placement of landmarks, by identifying the s-connected components of the hypergraph. For this latter task, we devise an efficient algorithm based on the union-find technique and a dynamic inverted index. We experimentally evaluate HypED on several real-world hypergraphs and prove its versatility in answering s-distance queries for different values of s. Our framework allows answering such queries in fractions of a millisecond while allowing fine-grained control of the trade-off between index size and approximation error at creation time. Finally, we prove the usefulness of the s-distance oracle in two applications, namely hypergraph-based recommendation and the approximation of the s-closeness centrality of vertices and hyperedges in the context of protein-protein interactions.