Gennady M. Fedorov’s research while affiliated with Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University and other places

This paper summarizes the results of the seminar “Geopolitical Security of Russia: Remarks on the Problem Statement”, held on August 26, 2022, at the Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, Kaliningrad. During the seminar, the Institute of Geopolitical and Regional Studies of the university announced an initiative to devise a system of monitoring the geopolitical (regional) security of Russia. The debate centred around the development of a conceptual framework and a geopolitical security model as a prerequisite for the system. The discussion also covered other relevant issues, including the definition of geopolitical security and geopolitical space as well as the types of geopolitical threats and vulnerabilities. Another topic on the agenda was the analysis of theoretical approaches applicable to monitoring the geopolitical security in Russia. A constructivist approach based on discursive practices was viewed as the most promising for tracking changes in geopolitical threats. In this work, the emphasis should be placed on regional issues, i. e. the situation in particular regions. Other promising avenues for further research are the operationalization of relevant concepts and the development of a set of indicators of geopolitical threats and vulnerabilities, which Russia has already faced and may face in the future.

The article focuses on the dynamics of the Kaliningrad region population in 1947—2023 and the dynamics components in 1990—2022 in comparison with the national average (based on the official statistics). The authors reveal some territorial features of the demographic pro­cesses, such as the development of settlement polarization and suburbanization, as well as the fundamental geodemographic differences between the near suburban zone of Kaliningrad and less urbanized eastern municipalities. It is proposed to use the concept of the Unified Settle­ment System in the eastern parts of the region to improve the spatial organization of settle­ment on the basis of a three-stage system of inter-settlement service. The authors noted strengthening role of Sovetsk and Chernyakhovsk in serving the cities and rural areas of the North and South-East of the region, respectively, developing rural-urban ties between the centers of municipalities with their rural settlements, and within municipal districts, which testifies to the strengthening support functions of the centers of the first level municipalities.

The article analyses the challenges associated with the development of rural areas in the Kaliningrad region. The author analyses trends in the development of agriculture, population dynamics, and settlement patterns, while also exploring their interconnectedness and external impacts. The research draws upon comparative-geographical, economic-statistical, and cartographic analyses utilizing official statistical data. The study reveals that since the early 2000s, agricultural production in the Kaliningrad region has been outpacing the national average growth rate. This is primarily attributed to the advancement of larger organisations, while the growth rates of household and small-scale farms remain comparatively low. This development trend is underpinned by a surge in labour productivity accompanied by a substantial reduction in the workforce. Consequently, rural residents are increasingly seeking alternative employment opportunities, either moving to urban areas or engaging in a different type of economic activities. Contrary to the situation in most regions of the Russian Federation, the rural population of the Kaliningrad region is growing. This growth is facilitated by an influx of individuals from other parts of Russia and other countries. Following the polarisation theory, population growth is driven by municipalities in the western part of the oblast, while eastern rural territories are losing population due to both natural decline (common to the oblast as a whole) and migration. Eastern municipalities have the demographic potential to increase the working-age population, while the western part of the oblast does not. The region has been implementing a policy of support for rural territories, especially for the peripheral eastern municipalities. However, there is a need for the policy to be further reinforced, alongside the development of a comprehensive spatial development strategy for the region. The article outlines proposals in this regard.

The article explores the challenges encountered during the formation of the Baltic macro-region comprising Russia and eight EU countries (Germany, Poland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) in the context of the ongoing geopolitical and geo-economic changes. The article aims to assess the dynamics, level, structure and pace of economic development of three Russian regions located on the Baltic Sea (St. Petersburg, Leningrad and Kaliningrad regions) and analyse the intensity of their trade relations with countries of the macro-region. Russian Baltic regions have higher development rates compared to the national average. However, they experience difficulties in their economic development resulting from negative external factors. The article describes possible ways of overcoming these difficulties by improving the sectoral structure of the economy and diversifying international ties. In this context, the development of inter-regional cooperation and the formation of a spatially distributed territorial socio-economic system, including the three Russian Baltic regions, will be particularly beneficial. The period covered by the article is 1996—2021, with a special focus on 2014—2021. The study is based on the economic and statistical analysis of official data of Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service on the sectoral structure and dynamics of the gross regional product (GRP), volume and changes in foreign trade, and its commodity and geographical structure.

Structural changes in the economy and spatial and inter-settlement differences in living standards and quality of life lead to fundamental alterations in the national settlement system. Settlement polarisation is gathering momentum, along with the movement of rural population from Russia’s east and north to its southern and metropolitan regions. These processes benefit urban agglomerations. Typological differences between regional settlement systems, still poorly understood but essential for strategic and spatial planning, are growing. This article draws on the concept of the geographical demographic situation; it uses official statistics on Russian regions and Kaliningrad municipalities and settlements to explore the connection between rural settlement trends and employment fluctuations caused by structural shifts in Russian regional economies. It is shown how settlement polarisation affects differences in settlement trends of meso- and microdistrict levels. Regions are identified that have a capacity for rural-urban migration and corresponding rural employment structure and trends.

This article presents an analysis of the level of tourism development across the Russian Federation. The study explores Russian regions by considering the key characteristics of tourism: the number of accommodation facilities, international visitors staying in accommodation facilities, the number of people employed in tourism and hospitality, and the value added created by these sectors of economy. An aggregate index is used to assess levels of tourism and recreation development and compare administrative units on this measure. An original methodology is employed to track shifts in Russian tourism, identify regions specialising in tourism, and forecast tourism development at a regional level.

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the gross regional products (GRPs) of 85 Russian regions. Statistical methods were used to analyze datasets on regional GRP, its sectoral composition and growth rates. Many datasets have been computed for the first time, including those of gross value added per capita and per employee. The work reviews a range of evidence on the contribution of the production of goods and market and non-market services to regional GRPs. The production of goods was further analyzed by economic sectors for each region. The data used in computations were provided by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (ROSSTAT). The authors built a typology of Russian regions based on GRP figures, GRP sectoral composition and growth rates. The data obtained make it possible to determine a set of indicators of the geographical distribution of Russia's economy and its growth rates. The findings are presented in the form of tables, maps and graphic materials (three tables, three charts and 11 cartographic maps), displaying quantitative measures of the economic performance of Russian regions .

An exclave position makes the economic security problems of the Kaliningrad region more complex as compared with other Russian territories. Deteriorating relations between Russia and the West compound the situation. This has been especially so since 2014 when economic sanctions were imposed against Russia, and the country retaliated. Global geopolitical instability adds to the conundrum. This study aims to assess the economic security of the Kaliningrad region. Its objectives include defining the concept of regional economic security and measuring its level in the Russian Baltic exclave. Possible ways to improve the economic security of the region are considered as well. Official statistics on the dynamics of industrial production and GRP and 28 other socio-economic indicators are used to assess the level of economic security. The region performs well on nine indicators and much worse on 19. Proposals for economic restructuring aimed at more intensive exploitation of regional natural and labour resources are examined along with the region’s prospects as part of the Great Eurasia (Bolshaya Eurasia) project and as an ‘international development corridor’.

The problems of the formation of international regions on the borders of Russian Federation and EU countries after the deterioration of relations between them in 2014 became more complicated due to the reduction of mutual economic, social, political and other cross-border ties. However, such links remain, especially at the local level, as both sides benefit from them. Polish and Russian authors are trying to find common approaches in assessing the situation and explaining the need in the development of relations between cities, territories and businesses located on both sides of the border, which contributes to the formation of cross-border regions. The authors use literature, materials of cross-border cooperation programs and their own research experience, identifying factors and features of cross-border interactions at the Russian-Polish border. The article presents a SWOT analysis of the formation of the Russian-Polish cross-border region – a comparison, on the one hand, of strengths and weaknesses, and on the other, opportunities and threats to its development. It is shown that in 2014–2019 political factors prevailed over socio-economic ones, which negatively affected the development of the regions along the border. Nevertheless, in 2018 the implementation of joint projects within the framework of the Russia-Poland cross-border cooperation program co-financed by the EU and both countries continued. Although the number of mutual crossings of the border has decreased, it remains quite important. In Kaliningrad, there is a Polish visa center that promptly issues Schengen visas, free of charge for scientists and teachers, students and some other categories of the population. In the summer 2019, free electronic visas were established in Kaliningrad region, which increased the influx of tourists, including Polish. The authors hope that the objective laws of the world market will lead to the intensification of mutual relations and the formation of the Russian-Polish cross-border region, which would contribute to increasing the international competitiveness of its parts on both sides of the border.