Fritz Schebeck’s research while affiliated with Austrian Institute of Economic Research and other places

What is this page?


This page lists works of an author who doesn't have a ResearchGate profile or hasn't added the works to their profile yet. It is automatically generated from public (personal) data to further our legitimate goal of comprehensive and accurate scientific recordkeeping. If you are this author and want this page removed, please let us know.

Publications (48)


Costs and Benefits of EU Eastern Enlargement for Austria
  • Article

February 1999

·

12 Reads

·

19 Citations

·

Fritz Schebeck

The Agenda 2000 of the European Commission and the state of play in negotiations imply that the current candidate countries are going to join the Union in two consecutive groups. This is why simulations for the 2002 to 2010 period, using WIFO's macroeconometric model, assume that the first group of 5 CEECs will accede in 2002 and the other 5 CEECs in 2007. In all, eastward enlargement of the EU is likely to have a positive effect on almost all aggregates of the Austrian economy in the medium and longer term. By 2010, real GDP is projected to be 1.3 percent higher than in a scenario without eastern enlargement. Also, employment figures are expected to rise by around 27,000 workers. The price level would be almost 1 percent lower, and new borrowings of the government would be down 0.4 percent of GDP.


Austrian Economy Prepared for EMU. Medium-term Projection for the Austrian Economy until 2002

February 1998

·

7 Reads

A stronger international competitive position and brisk domestic demand will have a positive impact on the Austrian economy in the next years. Assuming that the international financial crisis will be temporary in its detrimental effect and that the public budget consolidation policy will continue, there are no obstacles to the achievement of stable growth. In 1997-2002, GDP will grow by 2.75 percent p.a. on average, which is slightly above the EU average rate. Growth of the Austrian economy has accelerated since 1996. The dynamic development is likely to be temporarily stayed by the effects of turbulences on the international financial markets. After a slight slowdown in 1999, total economic production will once again expand strongly. As a result of production expansion and measures under the National Action Plan for Employment, some 100,000 additional jobs could be created in the projection period. Unemployment should decline by about 1 percentage point (from 7.2 percent to 6.2 percent of the dependently employed in line with the traditional definition; from 4.4 percent to 3.7 percent in accordance with the EU definition). The external sector will make a positive contribution to growth of 0.25 percent of GDP on average. Improved terms of trade and an upswing of the domestic tourism industry will provide for a noticeable reduction of the current account deficit over the next years. In the projection period domestic demand is supported by strong and steadily growing private consumption (+2 percent p.a. in real terms on average). Consumer confidence has improved. As a consequence of the growth of disposable real income of private households, the personal savings ratio will gradually be returned to its long-term equilibrium value. At an average growth of 4 percent p.a., gross fixed capital formation up to 2002 will rise at double the pace of 1991-1997. Plant and equipment expenditure will develop more dynamically, while building investments will grow moderately as a consequence of the redimensioning process in residential housing construction. Neither import prices nor unit labor cost are expected to make for any upward trend of prices domestically, and sustained competitive pressure effectively restricts price increases, so that prices will remain stable. The average rate of inflation will be 1.25 percent p.a. According to the projection (which does not consider the plans for tax reform), budget consolidation will continue in 2000, after a hiatus in 1999. The deficit will be less than 1.5 percent of GDP, government debt, on the other hand, will not decline below 60 percent of GDP.


Costs and Benefits of the EU's Eastern Enlargement for Austria

February 1998

·

9 Reads

·

7 Citations

With the adoption of the Agenda 2000 in July 1997, the European Commission initiated the enlargement of the European Union to the east. Ten Central and East European countries (CEECs) were evaluated as candidates for membership in the EU. Five countries (Estonia, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia) and Cyprus were chosen as candidates for accession negotiations, which officially started on 31 March 1998. The bilateral negotiations began in earnest on 10 November 1998. The other five CEECs (Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, and Lithuania) will be involved in the preaccession strategy. Whether Slovakia and Latvia will be included in the first group of prospective members on the basis of the favorable Commission's progress report on these two countries remains an open question. The Agenda 2000 and the negotiation procedure established so far indicate that the accession of new members will take place in two waves. Given these perspectives, the financial costs and benefits of the eastern enlargement of the EU for Austria were again evaluated on the basis of the WIFO macroeconomic model (the first analysis of this question was carried out in 1995/96). The model simulations for the period of 2002 to 2010 are based on the assumption that the first group of five CEECs will join the EU in 2002 (this assumption corresponds to the budget projections of the EU Commission), and that the other CEECs will accede to the EU in 2007. The assumptions underlying the model simulations are derived from integration theory and the budget framework of the European Commission for the period 2002-2006. In several steps, the direct and indirect trade effects as well as the effects of improvements in the terms of trade, changes in tourism, the increase in direct investment, and the financing costs imposed on Austria were calculated. The simulations do not take into account the effects of migration, which will strongly depend on the length of transition periods, which are likely to be agreed upon. In sum, the enlargement of the EU to the east may have a positive impact on almost all aggregates of Austria's economy. By the year 2010, real GDP is projected to be 1.3 percent higher than in a scenario without enlargement. This increase will be accompanied by an employment gain of 27,000 persons. The price level is expected to be 1 percent lower, and the government deficit is calculated to be lower by 0.4 percent of GDP.



Macroeconomic and sectoral effects of energy taxation in Austria

February 1996

·

9 Reads

·

14 Citations

Environmental and Resource Economics

·

Michael Wueger

·

·

[...]

·

This paper analyses the effects of energy taxation on the Austrian economy. Simulations are carried out with a linked input-output macromodel. The macroeconomic effects of an energy tax on economic growth, employment, the rate of inflation (change in the consumer price index), the budget deficit and the current account will be explained, as well as the sectoral impact on different industries. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996


Opening up of Eastern Europe and Eastward Enlargement of the EU. The Impact on Austria

January 1996

·

5 Reads

·

6 Citations

Through simulations using the WIFO macro model it is possible to estimate the effect of changes in trade policy – i.e., of East European opening up and of EU eastward enlargement – on the Austrian economy: although competitive pressure has considerably increased in some economic sectors because of East European opening up, its effect on the Austrian economy as a whole has been beneficial since it brought increased export opportunities. The envisaged eastward enlargement of the EU would stimulate trade and growth, but, due to the Central and East European countries' low level of development, it would also involve considerable costs related to the EU's Common Agricultural Policy and to its structural policies. In the case of EU accession by Austria's four neighboring countries, i.e., Slovakia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Hungary, the growth advantages would prevail over the cost disadvantages in Austria.


Eastern European Opening and EU Enlargement

January 1996

·

10 Reads

Liberalization of East-West trade since the breakdown of communism in 1989 has seen Austria as a net gainer. Its net exports with the East increased considerably, resulting in a trade surplus of ATS 16.5 billion in 1994, after years of balanced trade before 1989. Although in some sectors the comparative advantages of suppliers from Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) drove domestic firms out of the market, the Austrian economy as a whole benefited from the opening up of Eastern Europe. According to model simulations, taking into account not only trade creation effects of the opening up of Eastern Europe but also indirect effects via German unification and immigration effects, Austria's real GDP was boosted by 2.4 percent in the five years since 1989. The export-induced additional output led to the creation of 56,000 new jobs in the whole economy. However, the immigration flows accompanying the liberalization process pushed up labor supply and hence unemployment. Besides the completion of European Monetary Union, the next big challenge for the EU is Eastern enlargement by possibly ten associated CEECs. The most likely approach will be a step-by-step membership of the CEECs, starting with the most advanced countries. Although there is no exact timetable for negotiations with the CEECs, one may expect the first negotiations to commence after conclusion of the Intergovernmental Conference 1996. From the Austrian perspective, the four neighbouring countries Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia would form an economically "optimal package" of new members. Taking into account not only the possible integration effects of a larger market, but also the additional cost of EU membership of CEE countries by their participation in the CAP and the structural policy, the article concludes that full EU membership of these four CEECs would lead to an increase of real GDP in Austria by 1.5 percent after nine years, starting in the year 2000. The initial budgetary costs of membership would in the long run be more than offset by additional tax revenues due to higher growth. From the point of the Austrian economy, any further enlargement would be a net burden, with the costs of membership outweighing the benefits. The reasons for this are manifold: First, Austria is only a marginal trading partner of the other CEECs. Second, the other CEECs (Bulgaria, Poland, Romania and the Baltic states) are less developed than the four neighbours and therefore would claim more resources from structural funds. Simulation of EU membership for all ten CEECs still shows a positive net effect for the Austrian economy. Austria's real GDP would be raised by 1.7 percent after nine years, with the integration effect offsetting the high cost of CEEC membership.



The Fiscal Consolidation Program from a Short-term and Medium-term Perspective

January 1995

·

5 Reads

In January 1995 the Austrian Institute of Economic Research carried out a preliminary assessment of the consolidation measures as provided in the Working Agreement between the two coalition parties ("austerity package"). In the meantime, several items contained in this package have been changed, and the Parliament has passed the federal budget for 1995. The new evaluation is based on the federal budget 1995 as well as on the likely development of expenditure cuts up to 1998 according to the intentions of the government expressed so far. According to the present program, expenditure cuts are only half as large as envisaged in the austerity package; furthermore an increase in revenues is proposed in the budget. These changes move the budget further away from the consolidation target, but at the same time ameliorate possible negative distributive effects. The consolidation measures are estimated to relieve the federal budget by a cumulated Sch 127.5 billion over the period 1995-1998, with half of the savings coming from expenditure cuts, the other half from an increase in revenues. Compared to a scenario without fiscal restraint, new indebtedness of the central government will be reduced by Sch 29 billion in 1995. These savings more than offset the direct and indirect cost of accession to the EU (contribution to the EU and compensation for farmers). According to the simulations of the macroeconomic model, the consolidation measures lower the level of real GDP by 0.4 percentage points and reduce the number of jobs by 13,000 in the year 1998. The increase in the mineral oil tax will raise consumer prices by ¼ percent. The balance in the current account will be relieved by Sch 17 billion (0.5 percent of GDP) in 1998. Net lending of general government will improve by 1 percent of GDP, and in 1998 will total 2.6 percent of GDP, dropping below the Maastricht convergence goal of 3 percent. The public debt ratio is expected to steadily decline to 64 percent. The austerity program pursues two goals: to strengthen the hard-currency policy by fiscal restraint and to meet the convergence criteria for participation in a future European Monetary Union. The budget proposal for 1995 is a first step in the direction of a medium-term consolidation of the budget. Over the following years there will be some maneuvering room left in the choice of specific instruments for attaining this goal.


Effekte eines EU-Beitritts für die Gesamtwirtschaft und für die einzelnen Sektoren

February 1994

·

7 Reads

·

12 Citations

Durch Simulationen mit dem Makromodell und dem Input-Output-Modell des WIFO wurden die Effekte eines EU-Beitritts für die Gesamtwirtschaft und für einzelne Sektoren ermittelt. Demnach wäre das reale Brutto-Inlandsprodukt bei einem EU-Beitritt im Jahr 2000 um 3% höher als bei einem Verbleib im EWR als EFTA-Mitglied, die Verbraucherpreise wären um etwa 3% niedriger. Gemessen am BIP wäre die Netto-Schuldenaufnahme des Staates um 0,9% größer (1995 um 1,9%). Der gesamte Brutto-Produktionswert wäre im Jahr 2000 bei einem EU-Beitritt um 3,6% höher als im EWR; Bauwesen, die Stein- und Glaserzeugung, Holzverarbeitung, Chemie und Metallverarbeitung würden am meisten profitieren. Der positive Saldo der Beschäftigung von rund 51.000 Personen geht darauf zurück, daß in einer Reihe von Sektoren insgesamt 66.000 Arbeitsplätze geschaffen würden und in einigen anderen (vor allem Handel, Nahrungsmittelerzeugung, Landwirtschaft) rund 16.000 Arbeitsplätze verlorengingen.


Citations (9)


... Najważniejszymi motywami wyboru placówki handlowej są: szeroki wybór towarów, łatwa dostępność do sklepu oraz korzystny stosunek jakości do ceny. W dalszej kolejności istotne okazały się takie elementy, jak: dostępność do większości grup towarów w jednym sklepie, przyjazna atmosfera zakupów oraz kompetentna i uprzejma obsługa (Pesu 2013). Na podstawie uzyskanych wyników można stwierdzić, iż konsumenci z Obwodu Kaliningradzkiego deklarowali również korzystanie z usług sklepów firmowych, w których dokonywali zakupu: kosmetyków i środków higieny osobistej (37,2%wskazań), odzieży i obuwia (32,5%), mebli i artykułów wyposażenia wnętrz (deklaracje wszystkich nabywców tych towarów -28,3%), towarów luksusowych (23,1%), sprzętu RTV, AGD (21,6%) oraz materiałów budowlanych (1,4%). ...

Reference:

Determinanty zachowan rynkowych mieszkancow regionow przygranicznych (na przykladzie Obwodu Kaliningradzkiego Federacji Rosyjskiej)
Consumer behaviour in Austria
  • Citing Article
  • September 1977

Empirica

... First, it is interesting as an aim in itself. Although there exist thorough studies of Austrian money demand in the literature, they have become somewhat dated by now (see Ziegelschmidt (1985), Glück (1987) or Schebeck and Thury (1987)). Here we estimate money demand functions for three monetary aggregates within a small vector autoregression (VAR) to account for the simultaneity of the included variables and to ensure efficient estimation of the long-run coefficients of the model. ...

Dynamic specification of the demand for money in Austria
  • Citing Article
  • March 1987

Empirica

... The present re-calculation therefore identifies separately the effects of the different integration steps with one and the same integration model, also simulating an overall result including all integration impulses. 1989-20101995-20101999-20102004-20101989-2010 Overall, the integration steps have led to an increase in the annual growth rate of Austria's real GDP by 0.9 percentage points and to the creation of approximately 20,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was reduced by 0.7 percentage points each year, the rate of inflation by 0.2 percentage points. ...

Costs and Benefits of EU Eastern Enlargement for Austria
  • Citing Article
  • February 1999

... While the world models just described do not include externally calculated costs, the single-country CGE of Austria by Keuschnigg andKohler (1997, 1998) do so, as does the macro model of that country by Breuss andSchebeck (1996, 1998) 40 . The Kueshnigg/Kohler dynamic CGE model has two steady states, one at the beginning and the other after integration. ...

Opening up of Eastern Europe and Eastward Enlargement of the EU. The Impact on Austria
  • Citing Article
  • January 1996

... The narrow money supply appears to be non-cyclical, whereas the long-term interest rate seems to be procyclical for the larger part of time under investigation. All in all, although there are some regularities concerning Euroland's business cycle and therefore, to some extent "business cycles are all alike", there are obviously specific factors in every single cycle (Schebeck and Tichy (1984)). ...

Die "Stylized Facts" in der modernen Konjunkturdiskussion
  • Citing Article
  • January 1984

... 6 Table 2 reports trade-weighted averages of bilateral non-tari¤ trade barriers that vary considerably across sectors. 7 On average, we assume savings in real resource use for cross border transactions of only 5 percent for CEEC1s while keeping a 10 percent margin for CEEC2s on average. We are thus more conservative than Baldwin et al. (1997) who stipulate a reduction of 10 percent uniform across all sectors. ...

Costs and Benefits of the EU's Eastern Enlargement for Austria
  • Citing Article
  • February 1998

... Given that macroeconomic forecasts are meant to provide an accurate snapshot of the economy at future points in time, they must pass muster in an ex-post quantitative evaluation of their predictive power. Several authors compared the predictive accuracy of forecasts for the Austrian economy already in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s (Thury, 1970; Fleissner, 1980; Kramer, 1980; Schebeck and Thury, 1980; Hofer and Koman, 1991; Wörz, 1994). More recently, Rabitsch (2002) and Baumgartner (2002a) assessed the forecasting performance of WIFO and the IHS. ...

WIFO-Prognosen. Analyse der Treffsicherheit und Verbesserungsvorschläge an Hand von Zeitreihenmodellen
  • Citing Article
  • February 1980

... While carbon pricing significantly succeeds in lowering emissions, its potential adverse economic consequences have however become an issue (see Baumol & Oates 1971;Pearce 1991;Pearce & Turner 1991;Goulder 1995;Koeppl et al. 1996;Andersen et al. 2006;Martin et al. 2014; Andersson 2019; Ellerman & Buchner 2008;Ellerman et al. 2010;Anderson et al. 2010). Concerns regarding the possible adverse effects of carbon pricing on key macroeconomic variables were registered right at the inception of the theoretical and political discourse on its use (Köppl & Schratzenstaller 2022). ...

Macroeconomic and sectoral effects of energy taxation in Austria
  • Citing Article
  • February 1996

Environmental and Resource Economics