Friedrich Lösel's research while affiliated with University of Cambridge and other places

Publications (142)

Article
Most research on developmental prevention programs stems from Anglo-American countries. However, in German-speaking European countries, there is also a broad range of family-oriented programs to promote child development and prevent behavioral problems. This article presents a meta-analysis of n = 79 studies on family-based prevention that had a co...
Article
Homelessness is a serious social and health problem that is very important for community care and problem-oriented policing (POP). As this vulnerable population is difficult to reach, sound empirical data on psy-chosocial characteristics and contacts with the police are rare. This article reports a study of people experiencing homelessness from Ber...
Article
Full-text available
Zusammenfassung Die ambulante Behandlung entlassener Sexualstraftäter hat in den letzten Jahren zunehmend an Bedeutung gewonnen. Insbesondere seit der Reform der Führungsaufsicht 2006 wurde das Nachsorgeangebot für Haftentlassene sukzessive ausgebaut. Ein Großteil der nachbehandelten Sexualstraftäter wird über Bewährungsauflagen oder Weisungen der...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives Sports programs are widely implemented as measures of crime prevention. In contrast to their popularity, there is little systematic knowledge about their effectiveness. This systematic review and meta-analysis have been carried out to fill this gap. In a systematic review, we gathered data on evaluated prevention programs specifically de...
Article
Full-text available
Background There are high rates of mental disorders among prisoners. Prisoners are also likely to have difficulties with intimate relationships, perhaps related to the imprisonment, but their mental health may be relevant. There is a dearth of research on intimate relationship qualities and mental health of offenders and their partners over time....
Article
Full-text available
Background: Various studies have demonstrated that people who do not complete sex offender treatment have higher recidivism rates than completers or untreated controls. The mechanism behind this association, however, remains unclear. One explanation is that responsivity issues are more prevalent in high-risk offenders, making treatment failure and...
Article
Full-text available
Quantile regression (QR) is a valuable tool for data analysis and multiple imputation (MI) of missing values -- especially when standard parametric modelling assumptions are violated. Yet, Monte Carlo simulations that systematically evaluate QR-based MI in a variety of different practically relevant settings are still scarce. In this paper, we eval...
Article
Zusammenfassung Während in den vergangenen Jahren die Forschung zum politisch rechtsorientierten und religiös-islamistischen Extremismus zunahm, blieb eine ähnliche Entwicklung beim Linksextremismus aus. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht spezifische Risiko- und Schutzfaktoren des Linksextremismus. Die Daten stammen aus einer Onlinebefragung mit 144...
Article
Full-text available
Most research on aggression and delinquency concentrates on risk factors. There has been less attention for protective factors and mechanisms, in particular with regard to biosocial influences. Based on theories of autonomous arousal and stress reactance the present study addresses the influence of adrenocortical activity as a risk and/or protectiv...
Article
Full-text available
Individuals who sexually offended against both children and adults might be particularly dangerous. However, studies on this group are rare due to methodological difficulties. We investigated adverse childhood experiences, criminological variables, and other characteristics as well as recidivism in individuals who sexually offended against mixed-ag...
Article
Full-text available
PurposeDevelopmental and life course criminology (DLCC) engages not only in correlational longitudinal research but also in programs of developmental prevention. Within this context, child training on social skills plays an important role. The present article contains a comprehensive meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on the effec...
Chapter
This book describes the lives of 12 people born in Europe and North America during the Second World War. They became leading scholars on the development and prevention of violent human behavior. From the first to the last page, the book introduces contrasting life-stories and shows how their paths crossed to create a relatively unified body of know...
Article
Full-text available
Politically, religiously, and otherwise motivated radicalization and violent extremism is a topic of high priority in many countries. Therefore, beyond intelligence and police measures, there is a strong increase of psychosocial prevention programs in this field. However, little is known about their effectiveness. We aimed to fill this research gap...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives This article summarizes key points made in a panel at the American Society of Criminology (ASC) meeting in Atlanta in November 2018, entitled “20th Anniversary of the Academy of Experimental Criminology (AEC): Looking Back and Forward,” organized by Friedrich Lösel as the AEC president. Method Seven (current and former) presidents of AE...
Article
Zusammenfassung Zur Beurteilung des Behandlungserfolgs im Strafvollzug ist die Rückfälligkeit das zentrale Erfolgskriterium. Die Schwere der Rückfälle wird dabei oft nicht berücksichtigt, obgleich eine verringerte Rückfallschwere bzw. Opferschädigung als weiterer Indikator für eine erfolgreiche Behandlung betrachtet werden kann. In der vorliegenden...
Chapter
Politically, islamist, or otherwise motivated extremism, radicalization, and violence are highly topical issues in many countries. Thousands of publications address theoretical concepts, potential origins, risk factors, developmental phases, and approaches to prevention. However, there is not yet much research with a focus on resilience and protect...
Article
Full-text available
Zusammenfassung Der Aufsatz gibt einen Überblick über die Konzepte und empirischen Evaluationsergebnisse zur Straftäterbehandlung seit den 1960er-Jahren. Zahlreiche Metaanalysen zeigen im Durchschnitt positive Ergebnisse. Kognitiv-verhaltenstherapeutische Programme und das RNR-Modell haben die solideste Evidenzbasis, aber auch einige andere Ansätze...
Article
Full-text available
Zusammenfassung Die Sozialtherapie ist in Deutschland die intensivste Form der Straftäterbehandlung, die insbesondere im Bereich der Sexualdelinquenz Anwendung findet. Noch immer mangelt es an methodisch stichhaltigen Evaluationen, und diese stehen vor erheblichen methodischen und rechtlichen Problemen. Deshalb wurden Studien zur „best practice“ an...
Article
Examining the behavior of individuals is a challenging task due to complex patterns underlying the observable outcome. Even if all predictors contributing to the behavior are known in a particular context, the functional form and potential multi-level interactions between the predictors are difficult to grasp. Any modeling decisions involved in spe...
Article
Full-text available
Premature treatment termination in offender treatment is linked to negative consequences for clients, practitioners, and the criminal justice system. Therefore, identifying predictors of treatment attrition is a crucial issue in offender rehabilitation. Most studies on this topic focus on adult offenders; less is known about adolescent offenders. I...
Article
Full-text available
This article summarizes key points made in a session at the American Society of Criminology meeting in Philadelphia in November 2017, entitled “The replication issue in science and its relevance for criminology”, organized by Friedrich Lösel and Robert F. Boruch. In turn, this session was inspired by Friedrich Lösel’s (2018) article in this journal...
Article
Full-text available
Although there is less continuity of sexual offending in the life course than stereotypes suggest, treatment should lead to a further reduction of reoffending. Contrary to this aim, a recent large British study using propensity score matching (PSM) showed some negative effects of the core sex offender treatment program (SOTP) in prisons. Internatio...
Article
Full-text available
Recent publications in Nature, Science, and other journals raised concerns about the reproducibility of empirical findings in psychology and other scientific disciplines. This article summarizes some of these arguments and results that led to discussions about a “replication crisis” in research. In criminology, there is not yet a similar discussion...
Article
Extremism and radicalization towards violence are urgent topics in many countries. Numerous research projects are carried out, of which many focus on risk factors only. In contrast, this article contains a systematic review of the rare international research on protective factors. After screening more than 2,000 documents, we found 17 reports conta...
Article
Risk-focused early intervention is a very promising approach for preventing antisocial development in childhood and youth. Therefore, at a NATO Advanced Study Institute the Cracow Instrument was developed (Corrado, 2002). The Cracow Instrument is a developmentally based risk management instrument designed to identify children and youth at-risk for...
Chapter
Die früh in der Entwicklung ansetzende Prävention von Aggression, Delinquenz und anderen Verhaltensproblemen hat in der letzten Zeit international deutlich zugenommen. Zahlreiche Programme werden in Familien, Kindertagesstätten, Schulen, Einrichtungen der Jugendhilfe und anderen Kontexten durchgeführt. Trotz einiger Fortschritte besteht aber in Deu...
Chapter
Jüngste Publikationen in renommierten Fachzeitschriften wie Nature und Science haben gezeigt, dass es Probleme bei der Replikation von Forschungsergebnissen gibt. Dieser Beitrag informiert über einige Befunde zum Replikationsproblem und befasst sich in diesem Kontext mit der Reproduzierbarkeit von Ergebnissen in der Kriminologie und exemplarisch mi...
Article
Full-text available
Research Summary: Just four decades ago, the predominant narrative in crime prevention and rehabilitation was that nothing works. Since that time, criminologists have accumulated a wide body of evidence about programs and practices in systematic reviews. In this article, we summarize what is known in seven broad criminal justice areas by drawing on...
Article
Full-text available
Background Sexual offender treatment programs to reduce reoffending have been implemented in many countries as part of a strategy in managing this offender group. However, there are still controversies regarding their effectiveness. Objectives A meta-analysis of relatively well-controlled outcome evaluations assessing the effects of treatment for...
Chapter
Full-text available
This essay discusses various treatments for sexual offenders and their success in reducing reoffending. Overall, research reveals a positive treatment effect that indicates up to 25 per cent less recidivism in treatment versus control groups. Cognitive-behavioral therapy, relapse prevention, and programs based on the Risk-Need-Responsivity model ha...
Chapter
The main aim of this chapter is to assess systematic reviews of the effects of developmental and social prevention programs. These programs are defined as community-based programs designed to prevent antisocial behavior, targeted on children and adolescents up to age 18, and aiming to change individual, family, or school risk factors. Only evaluati...
Article
This article investigates children's contact with their imprisoned fathers and the influence on their relationships following release. It is based on data from a mixed-methods prospective longitudinal study of 45 children (aged four to 18) in England whose fathers had played an active role in their lives prior to the prison sentence. The study foun...
Article
Programs of offender rehabilitation aim to reduce reoffending and promote a noncriminal lifestyle. In contrast to the ‘nothing works’ doctrine of the 1970s, research on ‘what works’ has shown a desirable mean effect of 10–20% less reoffending. Cognitive–behavioral programs, hierarchical therapeutic communities, multisystemic therapy, education, voc...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives Sound evaluations of sexual offender treatment are essential for an evidence-based crime policy. However, previous reviews substantially varied in their mean effects and were often based on methodologically weak primary studies. Therefore, the present study contains an update of our meta-analysis in the first issue of this journal (Lösel...
Article
Full-text available
Research suggests that children of prisoners have an increased risk for behavioural and emotional problems. However, in a resilience approach, one should expect heterogeneous outcomes and thus apply a contextualized perspective. As this is rarely acknowledged in empirical research, the present study sought to fill this gap using data from the Fragi...
Article
The main aim of this article is to investigate whether there is a significant long-term association between bullying at school and drug use later in life. A meta-analysis is presented based on results from major prospective longitudinal studies with available unadjusted and adjusted effect sizes. Results are based on thorough systematic searches of...
Article
Full-text available
Theoretischer Hintergrund. In Deutschland wird eine Vielzahl von Programmen angeboten, die Eltern bei der Wahrnehmung ihrer Erziehungsaufgaben unterstutzen und kindlichen Erlebens- und Verhaltensproblemen vorbeugen sollen. Internationale Befunde bescheinigen derartigen Masnahmen positive Effekte, insbesondere bei kurzem Follow-up. Inwieweit die pri...
Chapter
This study applies a developmental and life-course perspective on the data of the Erlangen-Nuremberg Development and Prevention Study (ENDPS; Lösel, Stemmler, Jaursch, and Beelmann, Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform 92:289–308, 2009) to find interindividual differences in intraindividual change of externalizing problem behavior....
Article
Full-text available
Die Persönlichkeitsstörung der »Psychopathy« (Psychopathie) ist ein Kernthema der neurowissenschaftlichen Forschung über Kriminalität. Dieser Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über den Kenntnisstand. Hares (1991) Konzept der Psychopathie und die Messung mittels der PCL-R haben zwar die Forschung wesentlich gefördert, doch bestehen verschiedene Probleme,...
Article
Various international studies have shown that pregnancy and birth complications are associated with an increased risk for aggressive and delinquent behavior in childhood and later criminality. Neuropsychological theories of self-control can explain this relation. However, it is yet unclear whether there is a direct effect or an interaction with soc...
Article
Full-text available
This article presents the results of an international survey of treatment programmes for drug and alcohol abusing offenders throughout the European Union. Questionnaires on 86 programmes were collected from 27 EU countries. They captured data about programme design, delivery, administration, infrastructure and other features. Most programmes target...
Article
This article highlights three dimensions to understanding children's well-being during and after parental imprisonment which have not been fully explored in current research. A consideration of ‘time’ reveals the importance of children's past experiences and their anticipated futures. A focus on ‘space’ highlights the impact of new or altered envir...
Article
A systematic review is presented, based on prospective longitudinal studies, on protective factors that interrupt the continuity from bullying perpetration at school to externalizing problem behaviors later in life; and from bullying victimization to later internalizing problems. Some common factors were established, which seem to interrupt the con...
Article
Bullying perpetration at school is a long-term predictor of aggression, delinquency, and violence. Most research concentrates on risk factors for such developments, whereas protective factors have been rarely addressed. Therefore, the present study investigates potentially protective effects of family and child characteristics in a prospective long...
Article
Data analyses by classical ordinary least squares (OLS) regression techniques often employ unrealistic assumptions, fail to recognize the source and nature of heterogeneity, and are vulnerable to extreme observations. Therefore, this article compares robust and non-robust Mestimator regressions in a statistical demonstration study. Data from the Er...
Article
Objectives Only a handful of studies on developmental crime prevention contain very long-term evaluations and all these addressed high-risk groups in English-speaking countries. In contrast, this article investigates long-term outcomes of a bimodal universal prevention program within the Erlangen-Nuremberg Development and Prevention Study (ENDPS) i...
Article
This article presents the results of an international survey of European correctional treatment programmes for young offenders. Questionnaires gathering data on programmes’ design, implementation, structure, and evaluation were collected from 112 programme administrators in 25 European Union countries. Results demonstrated that although there was a...
Article
This study compared prisoners’ and their (ex-)partners’ forecasts and actual experiences of life after prison. The aims were to: (1) assess prisoners’ self-expectancies of problems and actual resettlement experiences; (2) compare prisoners’ post-release expectations and experiences to their partners’ forecasts and valuations of these outcomes; (3)...
Article
The Freiburg Memorandum on the current state of criminology in Germany revealed various structural problems (Albrecht et al. 2012). Within this context the present article describes the development and actual situation in the field of forensic and criminological psychology (psychology and law) with a specific focus on Germany. This area has a long...
Article
The aim of this study was to develop an effective selective preventive programme for the risk group of children of depressed mothers. A universal parent and child training concept was adapted to the target group and to mother-child rehabilitation clinic conditions. A quasi-experimental design was implemented with 13 clinics. Evaluation of the resul...
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this article is to evaluate the prevention programme EFFEKT‐E that was designed for preschool children of depressive mothers and contains an intervention for children and for mothers. Design/methodology/approach – Research was carried out in mother‐child clinics in Germany. In total, 220 strained mothers, who were screened...
Article
Full-text available
Most research on domestic violence perpetrator programs has been carried out in North America. It does not yet provide a clear picture on what works with these offenders and cannot be generalized to other cultural and legal systems. Therefore, in Part I of this article, we present the results of a survey of 54 programs that were in place in 19 Euro...
Article
In Part II of this article, we present the results of a systematic review of European evidence on the effectiveness of domestic violence perpetrator programs. After searching through 10,446 titles, we discovered only 12 studies that evaluated the effectiveness of a perpetrator program in some systematic manner. The studies applied treatment to a to...
Article
Full-text available
A brief overview of the prevention part of the long-term Erlangen-Nuremberg Development and Prevention Study, which combines a prospective longitudinal and experimental design. Findings up to five years after intervention are reported. From a sample of 609 families with kindergarten children, subgroups participated in the universal prevention progr...
Article
This article addresses the continuity and patterns of externalizing and internalizing behavior prob-lems in girls from kindergarten to secondary school age and also relations to offending in adoles-cence. It is a sequel to a similar investigation of boys at the same age (Stemmler & Lösel, 2012). The sample consisted of 294 girls from the Erlangen-N...
Article
This paper presents results from a thorough systematic review on the efficacy of school bullying (perpetration and victimization) in predicting aggression and violence later in life. Results are based on prospective longitudinal studies. Two meta-analyses are presented examining whether: a) school bullying (perpetration and victimization) is a sign...
Article
This article discusses conceptual issues and reviews knowledge about direct and buffering protective factors in the development of youth violence. Direct protective factors predict a low probability of violence, whereas buffering protective factors predict a low probability of violence in the presence of risk (and often interact with risk factors)....
Article
The continuity of externalizing behaviors such as aggression, delinquency and hyperactivity has been noted by many researchers. There is also increasing knowledge on different developmental subtypes of problem behavior. In previous person-oriented analyses we found two types of exter-nalizing problems in boys (Stemmler et al., 2005, 2008; Stemmler...
Chapter
This chapter addresses offender rehabilitation. It discusses the translation of effective programs into policy and practice. In some countries this is done through accreditation. While the future looks bright for this new approach in corrections, the chapter draws attention to a number of future perspectives, including the challenges of identificat...
Article
This paper presents the concept of Development Promotion in Families: Parent and Child Training (EntwicklungsFörderung in Familien: Eltern- und Kindertraining, EFFEKT®). The parent training was developed and evaluated as part of the Erlangen-Nuremberg Development and Prevention Study (Lösel et al. Möglichkeiten der Gewaltprävention, S 201–249, 2005...
Article
Der Aufsatz gibt einen Überblick über Ansätze und Forschungsergebnisse zur Wirkung der entwicklungsbezogenen Prävention von Delinquenz, Gewalt und anderen Problemen antisozialen Verhaltens im Kindes- und Jugendalter. Zuerst werden einige Grundbegriffe und Argumente für solche Präventionsmaßnahmen erörtert. Dann werden exemplarisch Programme vorgest...
Article
Objectives To examine the effectiveness of young offender rehabilitation programs in Europe as part of an international project on the transnational transfer of approaches to reducing reoffending. Methods A literature search of approximately 27,000 titles revealed 25 controlled evaluations that fulfilled eligibility criteria, such as treatment of...
Article
Full-text available
We find that existing multiple imputation procedures that are currently implemented in major statistical packages and that are available to the wide majority of data analysts are limited with regard to handling incomplete panel data. We review various missing data methods that we deem useful for the analysis of incomplete panel data and discuss, ho...
Article
Full-text available
Aim Parental depression is a strong risk factor for depression in children and is associated with offspring’s behavioral problems. Therefore, prevention measures should aim to reduce the transmission of risk to children of depressed mothers. In this paper, description and evaluation results are reported for EFFEKT-E (Entwicklungsförderung in Famili...
Article
Zusammenfassung. Kinder (subklinisch) depressiver Mutter haben ein erhohtes Risiko, Verhaltensauffalligkeiten auszubilden. Einige der Faktoren der Transmission liegen direkt in der Interaktion, wie das Erziehungsverhalten. Weitere Risikofaktoren wie Alleinerziehendenstatus oder geringe soziale Unterstutzung konnen die Auswirkungen auf die Kinder no...
Article
Der vorliegende Beitrag widmet sich den Auswirkungen der fruhen und der aktuellen mutterlichen Berufstatigkeit auf die Entwicklung des kindlichen Sozialverhaltens. Im Rahmen der Erlangen-Nurnberger Entwicklungs- und Praventionsstudie wurden in einem prospektiv langsschnittlichen Design 660 Kinder im Vorschulalter in funf Erhebungen uber einen Zeitr...
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the extent to which bullying victimization in school predicts depression in later life and whether this relation holds after controlling for other major childhood risk factors. Design/methodology/approach – As no previous systematic review has been conducted on this topic, effect sizes are based...
Article
Purpose – Although school bullying is an important social problem, its long-term relation to mental health and behavioural outcomes is rarely investigated. The purpose of this paper is to address the relation between bullying in childhood and behavioural and emotional problems in adolescence. Design/methodology/approach – Bullying and victimization...
Article
Although bullying and delinquency share similar risk factors, no previous systematic review has ever been conducted to examine possible links between school bullying and criminal offending later in life. To investigate the extent to which bullying perpetration at school predicts offending later in life, and whether this relation holds after control...
Article
Although bullying at school is an important topic, its long-term relation to anti-social development is rarely investigated. To study the relation between bullying in youth and anti-social outcomes in adulthood. A group of 63 males (bullies and victims over-sampled) from the Erlangen-Nuremberg Bullying Study were investigated at ages 15 and 25. Bul...
Article
Welche Auffalligkeiten zeigen sich in der Erziehung emotional belasteter Mutter sowie im Verhalten ihrer vier bis sieben Jahre alten Kinder im Vergleich zu einer unausgelesenen Kindergartenstichprobe? Gibt es Zusammenhange zwischen mutterlicher Depressivitat, verschiedenen Aspekten der Erziehung und kindlichen Erlebens- und Verhaltensproblemen? Wel...