Fred Nelson’s scientific contributions

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Publications (1)


Map of the Tarangire Ecosystem in northern Tanzania; the inset in the top right indicates the location of the ecosystem within Tanzania. Terrestrial line transects (black lines) were carried out in Lake Manyara (LMNP) and Tarangire National Park (TNP), Burunge (BWMA) and Randilen Wildlife Management Area (RWMA), Manyara Ranch (MR), and the Mto wa Mbu Game Controlled Area (MGCA, no boundary data available). Mkungunero Game Reserve (MGR) and Makame Wildlife Management Area (MWMA). ‘Northern Plains’ and ‘Simanjiro Plains’ denote approximate locations of the wet season ranges of zebra (Equus quagga) and wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus). For completeness, we also mapped Mkungunero Game Reserve (MGR) and Makame Wildlife Management Area (MWMA) which are part of the TE but not sampled. Blue polygons are alkaline lakes. We created both maps (study area within Tanzania and details of our study area) using the 'ggplot2' (version 3.3.6), 'rgdal' (version 1.5–23), and 'ggsn' (version 0.5.0) packages in R (version 4.2.2)⁷⁰. Maps are based on open source (area polygons, lakes) and our own (transects) shapefiles.
Population density estimates and associated 95% confidence intervals for elephant (Loxodonta africana). The trend lines are based on 1000 Monte Carlo replicates and modelled as season-specific (LR: long rains; Dry: dry season; SR: short rains) generalized additive models across six management units (TNP: Tarangire National Park; LMNP: Lake Manyara National Park; BWMA: Burunge Wildlife Management Area; RWMA: Randilen Wildlife Management Area; MR: Manyara Ranch; MGCA: Mto wa Mbu Game Controlled Area) of the Tarangire Ecosystem, northern Tanzania. Population density estimates are based on terrestrial line distance sampling surveys. In RWMA, elephant were not counted during the surveys.
Population density estimates and associated 95% confidence intervals for giraffe (Giraffa tippelskirchi). The trend lines are based on 1000 Monte Carlo replicates and modelled as season-specific (LR: long rains; Dry: dry season; SR: short rains) general additive models across six management units (TNP: Tarangire National Park; LMNP: Lake Manyara National Park; BWMA: Burunge Wildlife Management Area; RWMA: Randilen Wildlife Management Area; MR: Manyara Ranch; MGCA: Mto wa Mbu Game Controlled Area) of the Tarangire Ecosystem, northern Tanzania. Population density estimates are based on terrestrial line distance sampling surveys.
Population density estimates and associated 95% confidence intervals for zebra (Equus quagga). The trend lines are based on 1000 Monte Carlo replicates and modelled as season-specific (LR: long rains; Dry: dry season; SR: short rains) generalized additive models across six management units (TNP: Tarangire National Park; LMNP: Lake Manyara National Park; BWMA: Burunge Wildlife Management Area; RWMA: Randilen Wildlife Management Area; MR: Manyara Ranch; MGCA: Mto wa Mbu Game Controlled Area) of the Tarangire Ecosystem, northern Tanzania. Population density estimates are based on terrestrial line distance sampling surveys.
Population density estimates and associated 95% confidence intervals for wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus). The trend lines are based on 1000 Monte Carlo replicates and modelled as season-specific (LR: long rains; Dry: dry season; SR: short rains) generalized additive models across six management units (TNP: Tarangire National Park; LMNP: Lake Manyara National Park; BWMA: Burunge Wildlife Management Area; RWMA: Randilen Wildlife Management Area; MR: Manyara Ranch; MGCA: Mto wa Mbu Game Controlled Area) of the Tarangire Ecosystem, northern Tanzania. Population density estimates are based on terrestrial line distance sampling surveys.

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The contribution of community-based conservation models to conserving large herbivore populations
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July 2024

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Fred Nelson

In East Africa, community-based conservation models (CBCMs) have been established to support the conservation of wildlife in fragmented landscapes like the Tarangire Ecosystem, Tanzania. To assess how different management approaches maintained large herbivore populations, we conducted line distance surveys and estimated seasonal densities of elephant, giraffe, zebra, and wildebeest in six management units, including three CBCMs, two national parks (positive controls), and one area with little conservation interventions (negative control). Using a Monte-Carlo approach to propagate uncertainties from the density estimates and trend analysis, we analyzed the resulting time series (2011–2019). Densities of the target species were consistently low in the site with little conservation interventions. In contrast, densities of zebra and wildebeest in CBCMs were similar to national parks, providing evidence that CBCMs contributed to the stabilization of these migratory populations in the central part of the ecosystem. CBCMs also supported giraffe and elephant densities similar to those found in national parks. In contrast, the functional connectivity of Lake Manyara National Park has not been augmented by CBCMs. Our analysis suggests that CBCMs can effectively conserve large herbivores, and that maintaining connectivity through CBCMs should be prioritized.

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