Fran�ois R. Velde's research while affiliated with Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and other places

Publication (1)

Article
L'int�r�t de l'approche par les jeux globaux ("global games'') est pr�cis�ment d'ancrer les anticipations sur des variables exog�nes r�elles. On peut ainsi garder l'aspect auto-r�alisateur des anticipations mais en restaurant l'unicit� de l'�quilibre et donc un meilleur pouvoir pr�dictif du mod�le. Nous illustrons ces m�canismes sur deux exemples....

Citations

... Mangas (1989, p.316) 188,951 kg more than 7 million pesos in treasure sunken; partly salvaged 1623, Mangas (1989, p.316) 76,345 kg about 3 million pesos sunken 1624Mangas (1989 51,122 kg 2 million pesos sunken 1628 Potter (1972, p.160), Marx (1987, p.248), Mangas (1989, p.316) 30,538 kg around 1.2 million pesos sunken, largely salvaged 1628 Venema (2010, p.213) 80,660 kg 177,000 pounds of silver and 66 pounds of gold captured 1631 Marx (1987, p.424), Morineau (1985, p.242) 58,169 kg more than 2 million pesos sunken; 1 million pesos salvaged 1631 Marx (1987, p.249), Morineau (1985, p.242) 150,241 kg more than 5.5 million pesos sunken; very little salvaged 1634 Sandz and Marx (2001, p.129), Mangas (1989, p.316) 7,635 kg around 300,000 pesos in treasure sunken, partly salvaged 1641 Mangas (1989, p.318) 76,683 kg 3 million pesos sunken 1654 Earle (2007, p.83) 255,610 kg 10 million pesos sunken; 3.5 million pesos recovered 2 1656 Potter (1972, p.432) 173,815 kg 2 million pesos captured; around 5 million pesos sunken 1656 Walton (1994, pp.128, 140) 127,805 kg 5 million pesos sunken, 2.5 million pesos salvaged 1702 Kamen (1966) 7,350 kg around 80,000 pesos captured by British; Dutch capture and sunken metals assumed proportional to ship capture and destruction 1708 Phillips (2007, pp.46,181), Sedgwick (1970) 2 286,283 kg 11 million pesos sunken and 200,000 pesos captured 1711 Potter (1972, p.152), Marx (1987, p.353), Morineau (1985, p.375) 81,585 kg more than 3 million pesos sunken; around 1.5 million pesos salvaged 1715, Morineau (1985, p.375) 308,382 kg 12 million pesos sunken; around 5 million salvaged 1730 Walton (1994, p.166), Morineau (1985, p.375) 138,841 kg more than 5.5 million pesos sunken; partly salvaged 1733 Fine (2006, p.153) 311,908 kg around 12.5 million pesos sunken; almost all salvaged 1750 Putley (2000) The European precious metal stock in 1492 is uncertain. According to Velde and Weber (2000b) when Columbus first voyaged to America the global silver and gold stocks amounted to 3600 tonnes and 297 tonnes respectively. 5 Using the contemporary silvergold rate of 11.1 (Spooner, 1972) we arrive at an initial global precious metal stock of 6897 metric tonnes of silver equivalents. ...