Frank R. Thompson’s research while affiliated with University of Missouri and other places

Despite the recent increase in landscape conservation and the design processes agencies are undertaking, there remains an implementation gap due to an inability to evaluate general strategies and account for uncertainties faced by managers. We demonstrated how a decision support process (DSP), recently developed to inform landscape conservation design, can address uncertainties and complexities inherent in landscape conservation to facilitate long‐term, large‐scale conservation planning. We applied the DSP to landscape conservation efforts within conservation opportunity areas (COA) of states in the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks region. We engaged state planners within the region to identify important landscape conservation uncertainties they face in planning. We developed, simulated, and modeled the impacts of conservation addressing 3 uncertainties identified by state wildlife managers and evaluated the impacts by examining the responses of state and local populations of 2 bird species of conservation concern, prairie warbler (Setophaga discolor) and wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). The responses of prairie warbler populations to conservation strategies indicated that both approaches of protecting quality habitat from land‐use change and restoring and enhancing lower quality and nonhabitat improved their viability at regional, statewide, and COA scales. However, we noted that the relative effectiveness of strategies varied among states in ways that suggest a state's process for delineating COAs and what threats they face could influence which conservation approach to consider. Our findings highlight the need for regional coordination and the use of decision‐support processes to guide effective conservation at landscape scales.

Songbirds incidentally ingest soil contaminated with lead and several species in the Southeast Missouri Lead Mining District have a negative relationship between soil lead concentration and reproduction. We used an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate nesting processes throughout the breeding season to estimate annual productivity for 5 songbirds in relation to soil-lead concentration. We modeled daily nest survival and number fledged in relation to soil lead and incorporated these relationships into the IBM using a Bayesian approach that fully captured parameter uncertainty and process variation. The proportion of the posterior distribution for the effect of soil lead on daily nest survival was mostly negative for Pipilo erythrophthalmus (Eastern Towhee), Passerina cyanea (Indigo Bunting), Cardinalis cardinalis (Northern Cardinal), Sialia sialis (Eastern Bluebird; f = 0.972, 0.990, 0.741, 0.581, respectively), and slightly positive for Spizella pusilla (Field Sparrow; f = 0.680). The proportion of the posterior distribution for the effect of soil lead on the number fledged from successful nests was mostly negative for S. pusilla, P. erythrophthalmus, and C. cardinalis (f = 0.867, 0.585, 0.508, respectively) and positive for P. cyanea and S. sialis (f = 0.773, 0.744). Simulated annual productivity decreased by 0.04–1.47 young/female/year among species across the range of soil lead concentrations, with the greatest declines for P. erythrophthalmus and P. cyanea. The probability of fledging one or more young changed from 51% to 15% for P. erythrophthalmus, 57% to 23% for P. cyanea, 60% to 48% for C. cardinalis, 94% to 84% for S. sialis, and 57% to 64% for S. pusilla as soil-lead concentration around a nest increased from 20 to 4,000 ppm. Most nest failures were the result of predation; therefore, we suggest lead may have affected birds’ behavior at the nest, or affected nest site quality, which resulted in higher nest predation.

The brown‐headed nuthatch ( Sitta pusilla ) was likely extirpated from Missouri in the early 1900s as a result of habitat loss through extensive logging. Conservation partners including the Missouri Department of Conservation, United States Forest Service, University of Missouri, and others, relocated 102 brown‐headed nuthatches from Ouachita National Forest in Arkansas to Mark Twain National Forest in Missouri in 2020 and 2021 to establish a local population. We tracked 50 individuals for 24 ± 11 (median ± SD) days after release using radio telemetry and monitored movements in relation to sex and whether a bird was captured alone or as part of a group. We examined 25‐day survival using a spatial Cormack Jolly Seber (sCJS) model to account for likely dispersal outside of our study area. All birds survived capture, transport, and release. The 25‐day survival estimate was 0.56 (95% CI = 0.36–0.78) in 2020 and 0.68 (95% CI = 0.46–0.89) in 2021. Mean total distance moved following release was 5,670 (SD = 3,407) m and mean daily movement was 243 (SD = 135) m which was less than the mean daily dispersal distance estimated from our sCJS model (420 m, SD = 221). Our short‐term monitoring suggests initial success of the translocation, but continued monitoring is needed to evaluate long‐term success. Our survival analysis approach, which included movement data, illustrates the importance of considering dispersal when estimating survival.

Population dynamics of migratory species are influenced by land use and climate patterns experienced across the full annual cycle. Identifying environmental factors influencing productivity, survival, and their relative contributions to abundance and population growth is critical for the recovery and management of at-risk species in the face of continuing global change. The golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is an endangered passerine that breeds exclusively in the mixed Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei)-oak (Quercus) woodlands of Central Texas, USA, and winters at high elevations in Central America. We evaluated the effects of precipitation, climate, and land cover on golden-cheeked warbler productivity, adult male survival, and territory abundance using data from a long-term monitoring site, the Balcones Canyonlands Preserve, in Austin, Texas. We jointly analyzed annual productivity , mark-recapture, and territory count data collected on 10 plots from 2011 to 2019 in an integrated population model. The number of young fledged per male territory was negatively related to percent urban land cover within 1 km of monitoring plots, and adult male survival was negatively related to a strong El Niño event. Estimates of population growth and abundance indicated a decline in abundance across our study period. We forecasted population viability 25 years into the future given increases in urban development and frequency of El Niño events. Quasi-extinction probability increased from 0.17 under current urban land cover conditions and El Niño frequency to 0.41 under the scenario of a 10% increase in urban development around all plots and an increase in El Niño frequency. Productivity and adult survival were positively correlated with population growth, highlighting the need for conservation and management actions to maximize these vital rates on the breeding grounds and range-wide.

Migratory bird populations can be limited by events in disparate parts of the world. Birds wintering in tropical regions are facing rapid habitat loss, climate change, and intensive agricultural regimes, potentially contributing to population declines. However, an understanding of basic nonbreeding ecology of species, such as habitat and space use, is critical for determining if this is the case. Populations of the nocturnal/crepuscular Eastern Whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferus) have declined by 70% since the 1960’s, yet data on the species are sparse outside of the breeding season. We extracted data from 41 archival GPS tags deployed on whip-poor-wills and estimated nonbreeding home ranges and land covers used. We used satellite imagery and stable carbon and nitrogen isotope values from claws grown during the nonbreeding season to analyze how land cover and habitat moisture impacted home range size and relative trophic level. Forest was by far the most prevalent land cover used by whip-poor-wills, occurring in all home ranges and accounting for >80% of diurnal roosting points. We found that less forest, the presence of agriculture, and more edge (irrespective of land cover) were associated with larger home ranges. Stable isotope values differed by broadscale ecoregion but not local land cover characteristics in our study, indicating that regional idiosyncrasies or broadscale processes can be more important in determining stable isotope ratios. Our findings suggest that the loss, fragmentation, and replacement of forest by agriculture in the core of the whip-poor-will’s nonbreeding range may represent a threat to the species, as they rely heavily upon forest, and appear to alter space use in response to changes in forest cover.

Understanding the effects of landscape management on northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) population growth requires information on seasonal- and stage-specific demographic parameters linked across the full annual cycle. We evaluated site-level seasonal dynamics and population growth of bobwhites in southwest Missouri and compared differences between three extensively and two intensively managed sites from 2016 to 2019. Extensively managed sites were continuous tracts of native prairie. Intensively managed sites were composed of smaller native and non-native grassland units interspersed with strip crops, food plots, and woody field borders. We radio-marked adults and broods to estimate survival and productivity, conducted spring whistle counts to estimate abundance and developed a two-season, two-stage, two-sex integrated population model to estimate population dynamics. The number of young hatched per female-incubated nest was greater on the three extensively managed sites compared to the two intensively managed sites. Six-month period survival of adults during the breeding season was also greater on the three extensively managed sites compared to the two intensively managed sites. One hundred-day juvenile breeding season survival varied among sites and was highest on Talbot, compared to juvenile breeding season survival on the other four study sites. Six-month, non-breeding season period survival was lowest on the two smallest extensively managed sites, Stony Point Prairie and Shelton Conservation Area compared to non-breeding season survival on the other three study sites. Annual changes in bobwhite abundance were weakly correlated with female fecundity, though this positive relationship was stronger on extensively managed sites. Intensively managed sites exhibited low mean fecundity and breeding season adult survival relative to those that resulted in a stable population. Populations across sites declined from 2016 to 2019 and estimates of annual population growth rates overlapped across sites. Differences between observed changes in bobwhite abundance and estimates of observed demographic rates at some sites suggest unmeasured processes such as movement or bias associated with data and model assumptions influenced estimated vital rates. Overall, our integrated population model was an effective tool for understanding site-level seasonal dynamics and population growth of bobwhites. Based on comparisons of demography between extensively and intensively managed sites, we suggest increased native grassland cover managed with prescribed fire, low intensity grazing, and high mowing may increase bobwhite nesting success and breeding season adult survival, however, achieving stable or increasing rates of population growth may also require increased juvenile breeding season and non-breeding season survival.

Context Public-private partnerships are needed to conserve landscapes, waterscapes, and seascapes. Landscape conservation design (LCD) translates shared objectives into spatial priorities to guide conservation efforts and foster collaboration among partners at the landscape level. Objective We examined LCD projects in the eastern United States to identify implementation and coordination challenges and propose solutions that facilitate integration across projects in instances when coordination and continuity of conservation efforts is paramount. Methods We apply a scale dynamics approach to LCD that identifies what conservation actions to take (goals scale), how to conduct those actions (implementation scale), and where to take those actions (spatial scale) to benefit species and ecosystems (ecological scale). Additional steps include identify who (jurisdiction scale) will take those actions and when (threats scale) those actions should be taken. Results We found that although LCD projects span ecological, spatial, temporal, and jurisdictional scales, focusing only on spatial or ecological scales resulted in poor integration among adjacent projects when few species or ecosystems were the target of more than one LCD project. Conclusions Variation in approach among LCD projects poses a challenge to project coordination and project integration with existing conservation planning efforts and products. This challenge exists within and across jurisdictional boundaries. The scale dynamics approach provides a trans-project basis for integration across multiple LCD projects.

Woodhouse's scrub-jay (Aphelocoma woodhouseii texana) is a relatively understudied subspecies inhabiting juniper scrub and woodland in central Texas. We estimated density and examined habitat associations at the eastern edge of their breeding range. Scrub-jays were strongly associated with intermediate proportions of juniper land cover at a 100-m scale and showed lower density in areas of greater mixed oak-juniper woodland and greater urban land cover at a 1-km scale.

Aim A full annual cycle approach to conservation and understanding of regional population trends requires an understanding of migratory connectivity. We present tracking data on the eastern whip‐poor‐will (Antrostomus vociferus), a Neotropical migrant that has declined by 70% in recent decades. When and where populations of this species are limited throughout the annual cycle is poorly understood. Location Breeding area: midwestern United States; passage area and winter area: midwestern/southern United States, Mexico, Central America. Methods We utilized data from 52 archival GPS tags from five breeding areas covering a 9.5‐degree latitudinal span (~1000 km) of the whip‐poor‐will breeding range in the summers of 2017 and 2019. We identified migratory routes and spatiotemporal bottlenecks, stopover and wintering locations, calculated migratory connectivity throughout migration and on the wintering grounds and tested predictions for three latitudinal connectivity patterns. Results Whip‐poor‐wills circumvented the Gulf of Mexico, and populations across a large latitudinal gradient came together in eastern Texas in early October, resulting in decreased connectivity throughout migration. Breeding‐winter migratory connectivity was low (MC = 0.22 ± 0.12), with extensive overlap of core wintering areas in southern Mexico and Guatemala. The overlap of wintering areas by individuals from dispersed breeding latitudes suggests that whip‐poor‐wills most closely resemble telescopic migrants. Main conclusions Circumventing the Gulf of Mexico influenced connectivity in the whip‐poor‐will, funnelling individuals into a small region in eastern Texas in migration and likely influencing breeding‐winter connectivity. Thus, geographically dispersed breeding populations overlap in space and time during migration and winter, and non‐breeding season conditions affecting populations (both positively and negatively) impact individuals from across the core breeding range. For example, extensive deforestation occurring in the whip‐poor‐will's core wintering area likely impacts individuals from all five deployment locations. We demonstrate that combining multiple indices of spatiotemporal cohesion is critical to fully understand how migratory animals are distributed in the non‐breeding season.