François Bonnardot’s research while affiliated with Meteo France and other places

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Publications (22)


Developing climate services for vulnerable islands in the Southwest Indian Ocean: A combined statistical and dynamical CMIP6 downscaling approach for climate change assessment
  • Article
  • Full-text available

April 2024

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176 Reads

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1 Citation

Climate Services

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François Bonnardot

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[...]

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Vincent Amélie
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ERORUN‐STAFOR : A collaborative observatory for the multidisciplinary study of the critical zone processes in a tropical volcanic watershed including a Tropical Montane Cloud Forest

February 2024

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190 Reads

Hydrological Processes

Tropical volcanic islands are biodiversity hotspots where the Critical Zone (CZ) still remains poorly studied. In such steep topographic environments associated with extreme climatic events (cyclones), deployment and maintenance of monitoring equipment is highly challenging. While a few Critical Zone Observatories (CZOS) are located in tropical volcanic regions, none of them includes a Tropical Montane Cloud Forest (TMCF) at the watershed scale. We present here the dataset of the first observatory from the French network of critical zone observatories (OZCAR) located in an insular tropical and volcanic context, integrating a ‘Tropical Montane Cloud Forest’: The ERORUN‐STAFOR observatory. This collaborative observatory is located in the northern part of La Réunion island (Indian Ocean) within the 45.0 km ² watershed of Rivière des Pluies (i.e., Rainfall river) which hosts the TMCF of Plaines des Fougères, one of the best preserved natural habitats in La Réunion Island. Since 2014, the ERORUN‐STAFOR monitoring in collaboration with local partners collected a multidisciplinary dataset with a constant improvement of the instrumentation over time. At the watershed scale and in its vicinity, the ERORUN‐STAFOR observatory includes 10 measurement stations covering the upstream, midstream and downstream part of the watershed. The stations record a total of 48 different variables through continuous (sensors) or periodic (sampling) monitoring. The dataset consists of continuous time series variables related to (i) meteorology, including precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, net radiation, atmospheric pressure, cloud water flux, irradiance, leaf wetness and soil temperature, (ii) hydrology, including water level and temperature, discharge and electrical conductivity (EC) of stream, (iii) hydrogeology, including (ground)water level, water temperature and EC in two piezometers and one horizontally drilled groundwater gallery completed by soil moisture measurements under the canopy. The dataset is completed by periodic time series variables related to (iv) hydrogeochemistry, including field parameters and water analysis results. The periodic sampling survey provides chemical and isotopic compositions of rainfall, groundwater, and stream water at different locations of this watershed. The ERORUN‐STAFOR monitoring dataset extends from 2014 to 2022 with an acquisition frequency from 10 min to hourly for the sensor variables and from weekly to monthly frequency for the sampling. Despite the frequent maintenance of the monitoring sites, several data gaps exist due to the remote location of some sites and instrument destruction by cyclones. Preliminary results show that the Rivière des Pluies watershed is characterized by high annual precipitation (>3000 mm y ⁻¹ ) and a fast hydrologic response to precipitation (≈2 h basin lag time). The long‐term evolution of the deep groundwater recharge is mainly driven by the occurrence of cyclone events with a seasonal groundwater response. The water chemical results support existing hydrogeological conceptual models suggesting a deep infiltration of the upstream infiltrated rainfall. The TMCF of Plaine des Fougères shows a high water storage capacity (>2000% for the Bryophytes) that makes this one a significant input of water to groundwater recharge which still needs to be quantified. This observatory is a unique research site in an insular volcanic tropical environment offering three windows of observation for the study of critical zone processes through upstream‐midstream‐downstream measurements sites. This high‐resolution dataset is valuable to assess the response of volcanic tropical watersheds and aquifers at both event and long‐term scales (i.e., global change). It will also provide insights in the hydrogeological conceptual model of volcanic islands, including the significant role of the TMCFs in the recharge processes as well as the watershed hydrosedimentary responses to extreme climatic events and their respective evolution under changing climatic conditions. All data sets are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7983138 .




Figure 4. Time series of cloud occurrence (%, normalized to 1) as a function of the time of the day (hours) and altitude (km) for (a) aggregated summer seasons 2017 and 2018, (b) aggregated winter seasons 2017 and 2018, (c) summer 2017, (d) winter 2017, (e) summer 2018, (f) winter 2018, (g) summer 2018 minus summer 2017 and (h) winter 2018 minus winter 2017. White lines near the altitudes 2, 5 and 10 km correspond to data gap layers of ~25-50m resulting from the recombination of data collected in the different radar acquisition modes.
Cloud Radar Observations of Diurnal and Seasonal Cloudiness over Reunion Island

July 2021

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198 Reads

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1 Citation

Atmosphere

In November 2016, a 95 GHz cloud radar was permanently deployed in Reunion Island to investigate the vertical distribution of tropical clouds and monitor the temporal variability of cloudiness in the frame of the pan-European research infrastructure Aerosol, Clouds and Trace gases Research InfraStructure (ACTRIS). In the present study, reflectivity observations collected during the two first years of operation (2016–2018) of this vertically pointing cloud radar are relied upon to investigate the diurnal and seasonal cycle of cloudiness in the northern part of this island. During the wet season (December–March), cloudiness is particularly pronounced between 1–3 km above sea level (with a frequency of cloud occurrence of 45% between 12:00–19:00 LST) and 8–12 km (with a frequency of cloud occurrence of 15% between 14:00–19:00 LST). During the dry season (June–September), this bimodal vertical mode is no longer observed and the vertical cloud extension is essentially limited to a height of 3 km due to both the drop-in humidity resulting from the northward migration of the ITCZ and the capping effect of the trade winds inversion. The frequency of cloud occurrence is at its maximum between 13:00–18:00 LST, with a probability of 35% at 15 LST near an altitude of 2 km. The analysis of global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-derived weather data also shows that the diurnal cycle of low- (1–3 km) and mid-to-high level (5–10 km) clouds is strongly correlated with the diurnal evolution of tropospheric humidity, suggesting that additional moisture is advected towards the island by the sea breeze regime. The detailed analysis of cloudiness observations collected during the four seasons sampled in 2017 and 2018 also shows substantial differences between the two years, possibly associated with a strong positive Indian Ocean Southern Dipole (IOSD) event extending throughout the year 2017.


Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE

May 2021

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414 Reads

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7 Citations

Atmosphere

The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresses the modeling part of the program. First, a unique coupled system to simulate TCs in the SWIO is developed. The ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling is considered along with a coherent coupling between sea surface state, wind field, aerosol, microphysics, and radiation. This coupled system is illustrated through several simulations of TCs: the impact of air–sea flux parameterizations on the evolution of TC Fantala is examined, the full coupling developed during the program is illustrated on TC Idai, and the potential of novel observations like space-borne synthetic aperture radar and sea turtles to validate the atmosphere and ocean models is presented with TC Herold. Secondly, the evolution of cyclonic activity in the SWIO during the second half of the 21st century is assessed. It was addressed both using climate simulation and through the implementation of a pseudo global warming method in the high-resolution coupled modeling platform. Our results suggest that the Mascarene Archipelago should experience an increase of TC related hazards in the medium term.


REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE SERVICES IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN

April 2021

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93 Reads

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6 Citations

This research work was motivated by the lack of quality climate data specifically designed for the anticipation of climate change in the Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) basin that stretches from 30 to 90 degrees East. This region is prone to tropical cyclone activity with an average of 9.7 tropical systems developing each year, among which 4.8 systems go on to become TCs that are equivalent to a hurricane or a typhoon (Leroux et al. 2018). The SWIO region is also characterized by many small-size islands with peculiar high-orography. In the former Cordex program, regional climate models were run over Africa and only covered the western part of the South Indian Ocean at a coarse 50-km resolution (Dosio et al. 2015) while a 12-km resolution was used for Europe. Through the framework of the “Adapt’action” program, the Agence Franc¸aise de D´eveloppement (AFD), the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) and M´et´eo- France have defined a cooperation agreement to finance the BRIO (Building Resilience in the Indian Ocean) project aiming at supplying IOC member countries with regional climate simulations over the 2018- 2021 period. One of the project’s final objective is to provide a set of 21st century high quality climaterelated data on a free-access online regional portal as well as climate services. Another goal is to train national experts to climate data mining in each of the IOC member countries: Madagascar, Reunion, Mauritius, as well as the Comoros and Seychelles archipelagos. The numerical and statistical tools used for this regional climate study as well as some results are illustrated here for the southwest Indian ocean basin as well as for some islands of the region.


Impact of tropical cyclones on inhabited areas of the SWIO basin at present and future horizons. Part 1: Overview and observing component of the research project RENOVRISK-CYCLONE

April 2021

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345 Reads

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19 Citations

Atmosphere

The international research program “ReNovRisk-CYCLONE” (RNR-CYC, 2017–2021) directly involves 20 partners from 5 countries of the south-west Indian-Ocean. It aims at improving the observation and modelling of tropical cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean, as well as to foster regional cooperation and improve public policies adapted to present and future tropical cyclones risk in this cyclonic basin. This paper describes the structure and main objectives of this ambitious research project, with emphasis on its observing components, which allowed integrating numbers of innovative atmospheric and oceanic observations (sea-turtle borne and seismic data, unmanned airborne system, ocean gliders), as well as combining standard and original methods (radiosoundings and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) atmospheric soundings, seismic and in-situ swell sampling, drone and satellite imaging) to support research on tropical cyclones from the local to the basin-scale.



On the determination of coherent solar climates over a tropical island with a complex topography.

August 2020

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78 Reads

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5 Citations

Solar Energy

Many tropical islands aim at developing a greener self-sufficient energy production systems based on renewable energy, notably solar-generated electricity. This work explores the mean diurnal and annual solar cycles over La Réunion island (southwest Indian Ocean: 21°S, 55.5°E), and their spatial behavior, using the Solar surfAce RAdiation Heliosat - East (SARAH-E) satellite-derived data at high spatial (0.05°x0.05°) and time (hourly) resolutions over period 1999-2016. Comparisons of the SARAH-E data with ground-based measurements over the period 2011-2015 show differences of ∼ 15 % for diurnal-seasonal variations. The solar resource over the island displays strong spatial variability, with differences larger than 100 W/m² between coastal and mountainous zones. The mean solar resource is lower on the island than on the nearby sea by ∼ 20 %. The strongest interactions between the diurnal and annual cycles are found at the windward mid-slopes and near the active volcano, in line with the well-known cloud processes encountered there. A clustering of solar zones, based on diurnal-seasonal cycles, structures the island into a dipole that opposes the western to the eastern side of the island.


Citations (18)


... As a geostatistical interpolation method, kriging estimates the values at unmeasured locations by considering the spatial autocorrelation of the data. It provides more accurate and statistically reliable predictions, especially when the data exhibit a spatial structure or trend Workneh et al. 2024) and thus been used to interpolate meteorological variables Javari et al. 2024;Leroux et al. 2024;Nadoushan et al. 2024;Patel and Patel 2024;Workneh et al. 2024). ...

Reference:

Assessing the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in the state of Rajasthan
Advancing Climate Services for Vulnerable Islands in the Southwest Indian Ocean: A Combined Approach of Statistical and Dynamical Cmip6 Downscaling
  • Citing Preprint
  • January 2024

... In light of these, operational forecasting of individual TCs within the deterministic regime (up to a week) is still of immediate concern. On the other hand, seasonal TC prediction products have become readily available and well-established, mainly attributed to the discovery of a consistent relationship between the interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and TC activity 6 . Nevertheless, in recent years, more focuses have been shifted and placed on investigating TC predictability over the subseasonal time scales, with an aim to close the existing gap, or the so-called "predictability desert", between daily TC warnings and seasonal climate outlooks 7,8 . ...

Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review

... As wind speed data were not available for all sugarcane fields on Reunion Island, climatic data from the BRIO project were used for model predictions. Within the framework of the BRIO project, Méteo-France has carried out high spatial resolution climate projections in the Southwest Indian Ocean according to the main scenarios of socioeconomic development and adaptation and mitigation strategies (Leroux et al., 2021). These simulations used the CMIP5 model of the National Center for Climate Research (CNRM) and three climatic scenarios (RCP2.6, ...

REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE SERVICES IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN

... Schematic of Meso-NH and the SURFEX system with ECMWF wind forcings. Adapted fromBarthe et al. (2021). ...

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE

Atmosphere

... Offshore measurements of temperature, salinity and water chemistry were performed at 6-8 m depth 250 m away from the reef crest in April and October 2021, for 14 and 21 days, respectively, but not in June 2022 because of rough hydrodynamic conditions. In addition, previous offshore measurements of currents collected during summer 2019 over 2 months in February-March 2019 as part of the RenovRisk Cyclone project (Bousquet et al., 2021) were included in this study to better characterize offshore hydrodynamic conditions. ...

Impact of tropical cyclones on inhabited areas of the SWIO basin at present and future horizons. Part 1: Overview and observing component of the research project RENOVRISK-CYCLONE

Atmosphere

... While atmospheric transport to Réunion Island on the mesoscale is dominated by south-easterly trade winds (Foucart et al., 2018; see also Supplement Sect. S1), transport pathways can change under the influence of tropical cyclones developing over the south-western Indian Ocean (Tulet et al., 2021;Pohl et al., 2016), mostly from November to April (the cyclonic season). Several cyclonic storms affected Réunion Island during our measurement period (September 2017-May 2018), with the most noteworthy storms being Ava (∼ 13 d, 27 December 2017-9 January 2018), Berguitta (∼ 11 d, 9-20 January 2018), Dumazile (∼ 6 d, 1-6 March 2018), Eliakim (∼ 7 d, 13-20 March 2018), and Fakir (∼ 5 d, 20-25 April 2018) (http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_ ...

ReNovRisk: a multidisciplinary programme to study the cyclonic risks in the South-West Indian Ocean

Natural Hazards

... This choice is justified by the large computational cost of the modelling Among the 500 initial cyclones, a total number of 136 ones generated wave overtopping which led to inundation of the city district close to the seafront (see two examples in Fig. 4, bottom), and these are considered for the training of the metamodels (the design of experiments is provided in Supplementary Materials A). From a risk assessment viewpoint, the prediction of the cases that led to the absence of flooding can be treated by relying on a classification approach as studied by Rohmer et al. (2020) on the same study site. ...

Early-Warning System for Cyclone-Induced Wave Overtopping Aided by a Suite of Random Forest Approaches
  • Citing Book
  • July 2020

... The WRF simulation presented in this article, with a spatial resolution of 1km, can advance climate-related research in the SWIO region by providing the first-ever high-resolution open-access climate dataset. This data can contribute to a better understanding of regional climate variability, extreme weather events [2] , and the regional impacts of global climate change [3] and facilitate assessments of renewable energy resources [4] for the energy transition in the region [ 5 , 6 ]. ...

On the determination of coherent solar climates over a tropical island with a complex topography.
  • Citing Article
  • August 2020

Solar Energy

... Recent advancements in applying robust DT approach such as GBDT for overtopping predictions showed that a GBDT algorithm outperforms the overtopping predictions of those reported by ANN model with a factor of 2.8, see [24]. Furthermore, Rohmer [31] developed a Random Forest (RF) package that was composed of a classifier (to predict occurrence) and a regressor (to predict overtopping volume). The study [31] reported that predicted values were similar to those obtained from numerical Table 2 and 3. Compared to DTs, the timeline of ANN applications is much longer. ...

Early-Warning System for Cyclone-Induced Wave Overtopping Aided by a Suite of Random Forest Approaches
  • Citing Chapter
  • January 2020

... Both active and passive remote sensing instruments can be used to estimate cloud parameters. Lidar and Radar systems generally provide vertical distributions of clouds (Vérèmes et al., 2019). Two additional methods (all-sky camera and satellite) were used in this 55 study to estimate cloud fraction. ...

Spatial and seasonal variability of clouds over the southwest Indian Ocean based on the DARDAR mask product