Francesco C. Billari’s research while affiliated with Bocconi University and other places

This study assesses the initial effects of the 2016 Brexit referendum on the mobility of academic scholars to and from the United Kingdom (UK). We leverage bibliometric data from millions of Scopus publications to infer changes in the countries of residence of published researchers by the changes in their institutional affiliations over time. We focus on a selected sample of active and internationally mobile researchers whose movements are traceable for every year between 2013 and 2019 and measure the changes in their migration patterns. Although we do not observe a brain drain following Brexit, we find evidence that scholars’ mobility patterns changed after Brexit. Among the active researchers in our sample, their probability of leaving the UK increased by approximately 86% if their academic origin (country of first publication) was an EU country. For scholars with a UK academic origin, their post-Brexit probability of leaving the UK decreased by approximately 14%, and their probability of moving (back) to the UK increased by roughly 65%. Our analysis points to a compositional change in the academic origins of the researchers entering and leaving the UK as one of the first impacts of Brexit on the UK and EU academic workforce.

A growing body of research shows that demographic attitudes and behaviors across the life course are socially stratified. Building on this and focusing on the transition to parenthood, we hypothesize that (i) parental socioeconomic status is associated with multiple dimensions of the transition to parenthood, including fertility norms (perceived lower age limit at first birth), ideals (ideal age at first birth), and behaviors (age at first birth), and that (ii) this association varies across national contexts, as national contexts determine the opportunities and constraints that guide young adults’ life course attitudes and behaviors. Drawing on the European Social Survey 2006 and 2018 data, we analyze early fertility norms and ideals and later fertility behaviors of a pseudo-panel of individuals born between 1976 and 1988. We show that (i) parental socioeconomic status is positively associated with later fertility norms, later fertility ideals, and later childbearing, even when controlling for respondents’ own socioeconomic status, and that (ii) national contexts partially moderate these associations. We conclude by discussing implications for theories of fertility and highlighting avenues for future research.

Following the assumption that trends of online queries may indicate intentions and help to predict human behavior, this study addresses the general issue of analyzing, nowcasting, and predicting migrant decisions through an analysis of Google search patterns in the case of Syrians in Turkey. Aiming to contribute to the literature on predicting migration patterns, we examine the relationship between Google search queries for province names in Turkey and the number of Syrians under temporary protection across provinces from January 2016 to December 2019 and demonstrate a positive and significant association. Then, we explore the predictive power of Google searches in predicting the stock of Syrians under temporary protection in Turkey across provinces. We exploit the alphabetical difference between Turkish and Arabic as the method of differentiation between host and migrant populations. Our findings indicate that Google searches can be good predictors for estimating refugee stocks, especially when traditional data are not available. They can also be helpful in forecasting the changing pattern of migrant stocks at frequent intervals, to which conventional socioeconomic indicators are less sensitive due to their less frequent reporting periods.

Rich societies have witnessed a postponement of parenthood over the past two decades, and young adults’ economic conditions are often invoked to explain this trend. However, macro‐level trends in both “subjective” perceptions of economic uncertainty and “objective” measures of actual income provide no satisfactory explanation for the postponement of parenthood. We propose a potential solution to this puzzle by hypothesizing that the economic prerequisites of parenthood have increased over the past two decades. We expect that this has raised the degree of perceived economic certainty and the level of income that people wish to achieve before having a first child. To test this hypothesis, we draw on individual‐level longitudinal data from seven countries from the Comparative Panel File. Our findings show that young adults’ perceived economic uncertainty is not consistently associated with the transition to parenthood. Moreover, the effects of perceived economic uncertainty did not change over time. In contrast, we find consistent evidence that the link between income and first birth has become more strongly positive over the past two decades. This is true mainly for women but also for men, and suggests that increasing income prerequisites are a key mechanism behind the postponement of parenthood.

A key question for the explanation of fertility trends in advanced societies is whether, in addition to age, period- rather than cohort-related factors matter. In this paper, we analyze a standard set of age-specific fertility rates – from the Human Fertility Database – on the United States between 1933 and 2015. More specifically, we describe and apply an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modeling approach that relies on second differences as identifiable parameters. Results of our APC analyses tend to be consistent with an interpretation that gives a greater weight to period effects over shorter time horizons, with a significant presence of smooth cohort effects over the longer term.

Migrant health advantages, the ‘healthy immigrant effect’, erode over time, leading to what is known as unhealthy assimilation. Health-related behaviours are central to unhealthy assimilation, and here we focus on an understudied and central part of our daily time: sleep. Building on diverse streams of literature, we conceptualize and empirically study the sleep assimilation patterns of immigrants. With data from Germany, we demonstrate that immigrants sleep significantly more than natives upon arrival, while their sleep ‘advantage’ dissipates with years spent in the host country. We also explore the heterogeneity of the sleep assimilation process by gender, education, wages, work schedules, and job physical intensity.

This study assesses the initial effects of the 2016 Brexit referendum on the mobility of academic scholars to and from the United Kingdom (UK). We leverage bibliometric data from millions of Scopus publications to infer changes in the countries of residence of published researchers by the changes in their institutional affiliations over time. We focus on a selected sample of active researchers whose movements are traceable for every year between 2013 and 2019, and measure the changes in their international migration patterns. While we do not observe a brain drain following Brexit, we find evidence that the mobility patterns of scholars began to change following the referendum. Among the active researchers in our sample, we find that their probability of leaving the UK increased by approximately 86% if their academic origin (country of first publication) was an EU country. For scholars with a UK academic origin, we observe that after Brexit, their probability of leaving the UK decreased by approximately 14%, and their probability of moving (back) to the UK increased by around 65%. Our analysis points to a compositional change in the academic origins of the researchers entering and leaving the UK as one of the first impacts of Brexit on the UK and EU academic workforce.

Scientific ideas on the human population tend to be rooted in a “slow demography” paradigm, which emphasizes an inertial, predictable, self-contained view of population dynamics, mostly dependent on fertility and mortality. Yet, demography can also move fast. At the country level, it is crucial to empirically assess how fast demography moves by taking migratory movements into account, in addition to fertility and mortality. We discuss these ideas and present new estimates of the speed of population change, that is, country-level population turnover rates, as well as the share of turnover due to migration, for all countries in the world with available data between 1990 and 2020. Population turnover is inversely related to population size and development, and migratory movements tend to become important factors in shaping demography for both small and highly developed countries. Longitudinally, we analyze annual turnover data for Italy and Germany, documenting the changing speed of population change over time and its determinants. Accepting the “fast and slow” demography perspective has several implications for science and policy, which we discuss.