Folco Panizza’s research while affiliated with IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca and other places

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Publications (28)


Fig. 1. User interface for the Norm-Drawing Task. Illustrated as an example is the case of marijuana legalization. First (left panel) respondents drew the different views using the graphical interface. Participants could edit their responses and navigate through the views drawn; second (right panel), respondents reported the prevalence of each view using the sliders. Responses had to add up to 100.
Fig. 3. Perceived polarization in the US population on immigration policy. Left: The three views believed to be most common among Americans, as measured by the Norm-Drawing Task. Percentages indicate the predicted average share of the population believed to hold that view. Percentages in square brackets indicate the 95% CI. Right: the average of responses in the Krupka-Weber task about the same issue, by reference group. Error bars indicate bootstrap-estimated 95% CIs.
Fig. 4. Agreement in responses and diversity of views. Left: The probability that a respondent's predicted norm actually matches the most common prediction among other respondents in the same reference group in the Krupka-Weber task, by issue. A higher likelihood of a match indicates greater agreement on the norm in that group. Center: The overlap of respondents' predictions with the average of other respondents in the same reference group, by issue in the Norm-Drawing Task. Higher overlap indicates greater agreement in the views reported. Democrats tend to agree much more than Republicans on all issues, except for immigration policy. Right: Diversity of views reported by respondents in each reference group, by issue in the Norm-Drawing Task. Respondents predicting US public opinion consistently report a higher diversity of views than respondents predicting views within Democrats or Republicans, as measured by the distance from the average view of that group (see Supplementary Analysis C for a detailed description of the calculations). Error bars indicate bootstrap-estimated 95% CIs.
Fig. 5. Policy agreement and disagreement. Top row: Republicans perceive agreement that abortion is inappropriate before the end of the second trimester, but perceive disagreement when the baby is at risk of severe health problems. Bottom row: Democrats perceive agreement that it is appropriate to invest in renewable energy sources, but they perceive disagreement when it comes to investing in nuclear energy. Error bars indicate 95% CIs.
Measuring norm pluralism and perceived polarization in US politics
  • Article
  • Full-text available

October 2024

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22 Reads

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3 Citations

PNAS Nexus

Folco Panizza

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Recent research has shown how norms shape political and economic decision-making. Much of this work assumes that a single norm influences the behavior of all people, but in fact, many situations are characterized by the existence of competing normative viewpoints. We apply a method for measuring belief in the simultaneous existence of multiple norms. Such multiplicity arises naturally when norms are associated with distinctive groups, and thus political polarization can be characterized, in part, as a product of diverging norms between groups. We thus assess the validity of our measurement technique by testing whether it can recover polarization on seven salient political issues on which US Democrats and Republicans tend to hold different views. We then compare the norms elicited by our method to the norms of Democrats and Republicans elicited in a separate sample using an established and validated—but methodologically less rich—measurement approach. Our study uncovers a wide range of co-existing views between and within political groups. Partisans understand their group’s norms and hold personal views that align with them. They can also recognize the diversity and polarization in US public opinion by identifying norms specific to political parties and acknowledging the variety of views within their own parties, which may indicate internal divisions. This research underscores the importance of nuanced approaches to political norms that go beyond party lines. By acknowledging a plurality of views, we can encourage productive discussions and bridge ideological divides.

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Promoting civil discourse on social media using nudges: A tournament of seven interventions

October 2024

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24 Reads

PNAS Nexus

In this article, we test and compare several message-based nudges designed to promote civil discourse and reduce the circulation of harmful content such as hate speech. We conducted a large pre-registered experiment (N = 4,081) to measure the effectiveness of seven nudges: making descriptive norms, injunctive norms, or personal norms salient, cooling down negative emotions, stimulating deliberation or empathy, and highlighting reputation. We used an online platform that reproduces a social media newsfeed and presented the nudge as a message when entering the platform. Our findings indicate that none of the nudges significantly impacts participants’ engagement with harmful content. At the same time, nudges making descriptive norms salient selectively increase participants’ overall engagement with relatively harmless content. Additionally, making injunctive norms salient increased the likelihood of liking harmless posts. Exploratory text analysis also reveals that highlighting reputation leads to more substantial and coherent comments on harmful posts. These results suggest that nudges that activate norm considerations represent a promising approach to promoting civil discourse and making social media a safer and more inclusive space for all.


Adopt a cultural-historical perspective to adapt misinformation interventions: Reflecting on Harjani et al. 2023

August 2024

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13 Reads

Harjani et al. (2023) conducted a gamified inoculation intervention against misinformation in rural India. Despite the ingenuity of the intervention design, the study revealed no significant effects on participants' ability to detect misinformation, highlighting the cultural and digital? barriers to effective intervention. We argue from a cultural-historical perspective that conceptual development stages, influenced by formal education, play a crucial role in the success of interventions. From a practical perspective, we propose a possible guideline following the adaptation recommendations proposed by the theory of Intervention Mapping. Our reflection provides a deeper understanding of why traditional inoculation methods may prove ineffective in more rural and less literate regions and suggests pathways for developing more culturally attuned and effective interventions.


Toolbox of individual-level interventions against online misinformation

May 2024

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356 Reads

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53 Citations

Nature Human Behaviour

Anastasia Kozyreva

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Sam Wineburg

The spread of misinformation through media and social networks threatens many aspects of society, including public health and the state of democracies. One approach to mitigating the effect of misinformation focuses on individual-level interventions, equipping policymakers and the public with essential tools to curb the spread and influence of falsehoods. Here we introduce a toolbox of individual-level interventions for reducing harm from online misinformation. Comprising an up-to-date account of interventions featured in 81 scientific papers from across the globe, the toolbox provides both a conceptual overview of nine main types of interventions, including their target, scope and examples, and a summary of the empirical evidence supporting the interventions, including the methods and experimental paradigms used to test them. The nine types of interventions covered are accuracy prompts, debunking and rebuttals, friction, inoculation, lateral reading and verification strategies, media-literacy tips, social norms, source-credibility labels, and warning and fact-checking labels.


Covid-19 Vaccine Doses and Scheduling in Italy. The figure illustrates the different doses of the vaccine along with their scheduling. Each colored line represents a different dose schedule, with corresponding labels indicating the number of doses and the time intervals between them
Survey structure and experimental conditions
Diachronic evolution of safety and efficacy of the vaccine between the first and third dose administration period. The progression of the pandemic has led to a decrease in the perception of vaccine efficacy and an increase in the perception of its safety. Error bars indicate 95% confidence intervals; ***p <.001
Effect of different messages on the willingness to vaccinate. Participants only showed a greater intention to vaccinate when exposed to messages that contained information about the safety of the vaccine. participants in CC and Efficacy conditions demonstrated comparable vaccination intentions (p >.99). However, both groups exhibited lower vaccination intentions compared to participants in the Safety (ps < 0.001) and Efficacy and Safety (ps < 0.001) conditions. In the boxplot, the lower and upper fences correspond to the 25th and 75th percentiles, respectively, with the median positioned in between. The bars depict the 10th and 90th percentiles, while red dots indicate mean values. Colored dots represent individual data points
I want to be safe: understanding the main drivers behind vaccination choice throughout the pandemic

April 2024

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72 Reads

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2 Citations

BMC Public Health

Background Despite being a major advancement in modern medicine, vaccines face widespread hesitancy and refusal, posing challenges to immunization campaigns. The COVID-19 pandemic accentuated vaccine hesitancy, emphasizing the pivotal role of beliefs in efficacy and safety on vaccine acceptance rates. This study explores the influence of efficacy and safety perceptions on vaccine uptake in Italy during the pandemic. Methods We administered a 70-item questionnaire to a representative sample of 600 Italian speakers. Participants were tasked with assessing the perceived effectiveness and safety of each vaccine dose, along with providing reasons influencing their vaccination choices. Additionally, we conducted an experimental manipulation, exploring the effects of four framing messages that emphasized safety and/or efficacy on participants’ willingness to receive a hypothetical fourth vaccine dose. Furthermore, participants were asked about their level of trust in the scientific community and public authorities, as well as their use of different information channels for obtaining COVID-19-related information. Results Our study reveals a dynamic shift in vaccine efficacy and safety perceptions throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially influencing vaccination compliance. Initially perceived as more effective than safe, this assessment reversed by the time of the third dose. Beliefs regarding safety, rather than efficacy, played a significant role in anticipating future vaccinations (e.g., the booster dose). Safety-focused messages positively affected vaccination intent, while efficacy-focused messages showed limited impact. We also observed a changing trend in reasons for vaccination, with a decline in infection-related reasons and an increase in social related ones. Furthermore, trust dynamics evolved differently for public authorities and the scientific community. Conclusions Vaccine perception is a dynamic process shaped by evolving factors like efficacy and safety perceptions, trust levels, and individual motivations. Our study sheds light on the complex dynamics that underlie the perception of vaccine safety and efficacy, and their impact on willingness to vaccinate. We discuss these results in light of bounded rationality, loss aversion and classic utility theory.


Promoting civil discourse on social media using nudges: A tournament of seven interventions

March 2024

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34 Reads

In this paper, we test and compare several message-based nudges designed to promote civil discourse and reduce the circulation of hate speech. We conducted a large pre-registered experiment (N = 4,081) to measure the effectiveness of seven nudges: making descriptive norms, injunctive norms, or personal norms salient, cooling down negative emotions, stimulating deliberation or empathy, and highlighting reputation. We used an online platform that reproduces a social media newsfeed and presented the nudge as a message when entering the platform. Our findings indicate that nudges making descriptive norms salient selectively increase participants' overall engagement with relatively harmless content. Additionally, making injunctive norms salient increased the likelihood of liking harmless posts. Exploratory text analysis also reveals that highlighting reputation leads to more substantial and coherent comments on harmful posts. These results suggest that nudges that activate norm considerations represent a promising approach to promoting civil discourse and making social media a safer and more inclusive space for all.


De-biasing HPV: Effects of a de-biasing communication approach to promoting Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine acceptance in a sample of Italian adolescents: a single-blind randomised control trial

February 2024

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18 Reads

The project carries out a promotional intervention on HPV vaccine confidence in Italian adolescents through digital messages targeting participants’ biases and heuristics related to the vaccination choice. The experimental procedures developed under this research protocol aim to co-design an innovative method for promoting HPV vaccine confidence with tailored messages through digital channels. We will compare two promotional communication approaches delivered to a sample of high-school students. The interventions are co-designed together with a separate group of high school students who contributed to the preparation of the materials. In the traditional communication treatment, the message will instead propose a more traditional communication approach targeting misconceptions and providing information about the vaccination. In the de-biasing treatment, the promotional messages will be accompanied by messages targeting heuristics and biases that have been associated in the literature with vaccine hesitancy. Communication strategies in the two treatments will be compared relative to each other and to a control group which will not receive either message. Vaccine Hesitancy and Confidence, attitudes and knowledge related to the HPV vaccine will be measured through ad hoc questionnaires before and after the promotional interventions.


Figure 1. Comparing different incentives. Bootstrap estimates of the average accuracy score by experimental condition (Min. 1, Max. 6, random response: 3.5). Asterisks refer to significance of contrasts in the ordinal logistic regression. *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.
Figure 2. Facebook post example. Screenshot of one of the posts for participants to evaluate. Evaluation was self-paced, and participants were free to leave the study page to search for information online by clicking on one of the links in the post or by opening new tabs.
How different incentives reduce scientific misinformation online

January 2024

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80 Reads

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3 Citations

Several social media employ or consider user recruitment as defense against misinformation. Yet, it is unclear how to encourage users to make accurate evaluations. Our study shows that presenting the performance of previous participants increases discernment of science-related news. Making participants aware that their evaluations would be used by future participants had no effect on accuracy. Lastly, monetary rewards have the largest effect on accuracy. Our study provides support for the idea that a person’s motivation is an essential component of their propensity to be vigilant online and that it is possible to devise strategies to strengthen this motivation.




Citations (17)


... In sum, our results confirm that motives vary on the level of individual tweets, and show how motives may drive people to share negative and outraging content. Our findings also highlight the importance of designing online environments that do not favor this potentially divisive content [52], of implementing interventions against sharing misinformation that shift people's motives further towards accuracy [53], and of employing algorithms that maximize metrics other than pure engagement [54,55]. The interplay of motives, content, and platform affordances should be taken into account in all efforts to understand and improve public discourse online. ...

Reference:

Real-time assessment of motives for sharing and creating content among highly active Twitter users
A framework for promoting online prosocial behavior via digital interventions
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

Communications Psychology

... After a rigorously followed protocol, the studies that met the criteria were ranked according to the Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) guidelines for levels of evidence (Table 1) [21]. From level 1 (highest) to 5 (lowest), level 1 (randomized control trials), level 2 (prospective cohort clinical studies), level 3 (retrospective case-controlled studies), level 4 (case series studies), and level 5 (case-based reasoning and bench studies), [22] here, the strength level of evidence of the articles evaluated was 4 (Table 1). Concerning the missing data, the Listwise deletion method was used for each variable studied [23]. ...

Toolbox of individual-level interventions against online misinformation
  • Citing Article
  • May 2024

Nature Human Behaviour

... A study estimates COVID-19 immunization averted 610,000 to 2.61 million mortalities in the first yr and a half of the deployment (January 2021-May 2022) 7 . Other factors that affect vaccine acceptance include safety and effectiveness confidence 8 . ...

I want to be safe: understanding the main drivers behind vaccination choice throughout the pandemic

BMC Public Health

... their race or education) is an open question. At the forefront of this development are new validated measurement techniques that create the opportunity to measure important facets of polarization, including the ability to capture pluralistic societal views and norms (36)(37)(38). These techniques enable researchers to measure polarization at both the individual level (such as the distribution of norm-related beliefs) and the collective level (including the tightness and looseness of norms) simultaneously, providing a more accurate assessment of polarization. ...

Measuring Norm Pluralism and Perceived Polarization in U.S. Politics

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Inducing empathy can favor social distancing and mask wearing (Pfattheicher et al., 2020) as well as positive attitudes toward political outgroups (Masullo, 2023). Social motivations such as reputation increase the accuracy of the assessment of online information (Ronzani et al., 2024;Rathje et al., 2023). ...

How different incentives reduce scientific misinformation online

... their race or education) is an open question. At the forefront of this development are new validated measurement techniques that create the opportunity to measure important facets of polarization, including the ability to capture pluralistic societal views and norms (36)(37)(38). These techniques enable researchers to measure polarization at both the individual level (such as the distribution of norm-related beliefs) and the collective level (including the tightness and looseness of norms) simultaneously, providing a more accurate assessment of polarization. ...

Measuring Norm Pluralism and Tolerance
  • Citing Article
  • January 2023

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Based on the large body of work on information processing and more recent work on warning labels, this role should be expected (Panizza et al. 2023). As indicated in Table 2 model 1, participants who scored higher on the cognitive reflection test (measuring tendency to engage in further reflection) and were more educated, trusted false information less (p < 0.001 and p < 0.007, respectively). ...

How do online users respond to crowdsourced fact-checking?

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications

... We note that there are other novel approaches to categorizing digital interventions that are orthogonal to the practical framework presented here. Some of us 46 recently drew a distinction between behavioral and informative interventions, with the former targeting behavior change and the latter promoting users' understanding of the environment in which they act. The authors suggest that research has predominantly focused on behavioral interventions, while informative interventions are essential for campaigns that aim to promote users' competence and independence online. ...

The Importance of Informative Interventions in a Wicked Environment
  • Citing Article
  • December 2022

The American Journal of Psychology

... The issue of misinformation in social media is currently attracting a lot of attention, especially for the effects that it has on health-related and political behaviour, among other realms of interest [1,4]. The Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the cycle of elections in open democratic societies makes it even more urgent, as the struggle for the narrative becomes real. ...

Listening to Crowdsourced Fact-Checking
  • Citing Article
  • January 2023

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Some studies show that lay publics still trust and positively evaluate science and scientific experts' impact on society. See for instance Gundersen et al. (2022). research suggest that respect plays a crucial role in the relationship between healthcare providers and patients and in promoting trust. ...

A New Dark Age? Truth, Trust, and Environmental Science

Annual Review of Environment and Resources