Evert van Imhoff's research while affiliated with Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute and other places

Publications (59)

Article
The 1930 population census of the former Dutch East Indies (currently Indonesia) shows for the European population a striking shortage in the age range 10-20. This paper deals with the possible causes of this constriction in the age structure, in particular, the phenomenon of European children attending secondary education in the Netherlands. Using...
Article
Indonesia was a Dutch colony until 1949. In the aftermath of World War II and the independence of the former Dutch East Indies, many people migrated from Indonesia to the Netherlands or other Western countries. This migrant population, known as the Indo-Dutch population, consists of Europeans, Asians, and persons of mixed European–Asian blood. Thes...
Article
A particularly important struggle faced by demographic analysts is, how to arrive at statements about family formation processes from a cohort perspective from data that are essentially collected on an annual basis. The present paper is concerned with this struggle, mostly restricted to the case of fertility. The central question investigated here...
Article
Full-text available
Compared to other countries that have suffered from the Nazioccupation, the destructive impact of the Holocaust on theJewish population has been particularly strong in the Netherlands. This paper gives a demographicreconstruction of the Jewish population in the Netherlands by the end of the war (1945),disaggregated by age and sex. The reconstructio...
Article
In the article by Bongaarts and Feeney a modification of the conventional (period) total fertility rate (TFR) is proposed. This so-called tempo-adjusted TFR can be interpreted as the TFR that would have been observed in year t if the age pattern of fertility had been the same as in year t-1 that is as a measure of the pure quantum effect. This pape...
Article
Recently, a new set of regional population projections for the countries of the European Union has been completed. This paper concentrates on the internal migration component of these projections. After a brief description of the internal migration model employed, the paper develops two sets of model parameters in terms of which projection assumpti...
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This report summarises the presentations made and discussions held at the Second of the ESRC/JISC Workshops Planning for the 2001 Census. The report presents views of expert census users and summarises the recommendations to ESRC and JISC about what kinds of data from the 2001 Census should be requested from the UK Census Offices. The Workshops are...
Article
PIP This study examined the budgetary consequences of alternative policies on aging in the public sector in the Netherlands. Budgetary consequences include salaried employee costs, the benefit costs of the inactive population aged under 65 years, and the implicit costs of not replacing retired workers. Data were obtained from the largest pension fu...
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Door de geleidelijke veroudering van de beroepsbevolking neemt bij veel organisaties het bewustzijn van de leeftijdsdimensie van hun personeelsbestand toe. Veel organisaties zullen te maken krijgen met een veroudering van het personeelsbestand. Dit wordt niet alleen veroorzaakt door de veranderende leeftijdssamenstelling van de beroepsbevolking, ma...
Article
Microsimulation differs from traditional macrosimulation in using a sample rather than the total population, in operating at the level of individual data rather than aggregated data, and in being based on repeated random experiments rather than average numbers. Here are presented the circumstances in which microsimulation san be of greater value th...
Book
Full-text available
The social sciences have traditionally developed independently of each other, elaborating their own objects of study and their own methods.At present, however, we are witnessing an increasing convergence of approach at the same time as an extension of their fields of application. Methods derived from the same type of statistical model are now being...
Article
This paper discusses the use of genealogical data for the study of the historical development of kinship networks in the Netherlands, 1830-1990. There are two main problems in using genealogies: the year of death is missing for a sizeable part of the research population; and the information available on all relevant branches is far from complete. A...
Article
La micro-simulation se distingue de la macro-simulation traditionnelle, en utilisant un échantillon plutôt que la population totale, en travaillant au niveau de données individuelles plutôt que de données agrégées, et en se basant sur des expériences aléatoires répétées plutôt que sur des nombres moyens. Nous présentons ici les circonstances sous l...
Article
"A full multiregional projection model requires migration data that are simultaneously classified by age and gender and region of origin and region of destination. Except for a very small number of regions, these data requirements are so high that aggregation of the data (which is equivalent to simplification of the model) is called for. This paper...
Book
Full-text available
Si, dans le passé, les sciences sociales se sont constituées indépendamment les unes des autres, avec leur propre objet d'étude et leurs méthodes particulières, on observe actuellement une convergence croissante de leurs approches et une extension de leur domaine. Ainsi les méthodes issues du même type de modèle statistique, sont aussi bien utilisé...
Article
Full-text available
The paper discusses translation formulae for time-dependent cohort and period quantum for non-repeatable events. Cohort quantum expressions are investigated for two cases: one in which period quantum, and another in which the sum of the period rates decreases linearly with time. In both cases the assumption is that period tempo does not change. Suf...
Chapter
This chapter describes the construction of a very general, dynamic household model called LIPRO, based on the insights of multidimensional demography, and applies this model to trace the present and the future household situation in the Netherlands. The model classifies individuals by eleven household positions, corresponding to seven household typ...
Chapter
On the basis of the results of the 1984 Voorburg workshop mentioned in chapter 1, several years ago Keilman and Keyfitz sketched a number of elements of a research strategy “which should ultimately lead to a better performance and therefore a greater usefulness of household models” (Keilman and Keyfitz 1988). Since then, some of Keilman and Keyfitz...
Chapter
This chapter reports the findings of the research project ‘The impact of changing household structures on future social security expenditures in the Netherlands’, which was carried out at the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)with financial support from the Netherlands Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment.
Book
In 1992, a summer course 'Demographic Perspectives on Living Arrangements' as well as a one-day workshop 'Recent Issues in Household Modelling' were held in Wassenaar, The Netherlands. This volume is based on the lectures delivered during the summer course, as well as on the presentations made in the workshop. As such, the present volume combines t...
Chapter
Full-text available
The effects of international migration on household composition and social security expenditures in the Netherlands are traced using the LIPRO household projection model. Three different scenarios for future migration are formulated. The direct impact of migration on household composition is limited; most of the effect runs via migration's impact o...
Article
This paper provides a geometric-mean solution to the consistency problem of multi-dimensional demographic projection models, based on the constrained minimization of an entropy function. A comparison with the existing harmonic-mean solution yields many similarities and almost no differences: both solutions satisfy the properties of availability, mo...
Book
Full-text available
In 1990, NIDI published a set of household scenarios for the Netherlands, covering the period 1985-2050. These scenarios were produced with the LIPRO model, a general multidimensional demographic projection model with a number of special features that make it particularly suitable for dynamic household projections. The current report documents the...
Article
"This paper studies the impact of demographic change and international migration on economic development and the education sector. We employ a simple simulation model for tracing the impact of international migration on the educational and economic system, under alternative assumptions on the education background and adaptation costs of migrants. A...
Article
Demographic projection models describe the development over time of the population in terms of events. A consistency problem arises if projected numbers of events are required to satisfy certain constraints; the consistency problem can be seen as a generalization of the well-known two-sex problem in nuptiality models. This paper presents a very gen...
Chapter
This volume contains the papers presented at the conference “Female Labour Market Behaviour and Fertility: Preferences, Restrictions, Behaviour,” held in April 1989 at the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute in The Hague. It is often suggested that the increased labour force participation of women in the West has played an important...
Book
Since 1987, the investigation of the relationship between female labour market behaviour and fertility, which forms part of the research programme of the Economic Institute / Centre for Interdisciplinary Research on Labour Market and Distribution Issues (CIAV) of Utrecht University, also became a part of the research programme of the Netherlands In...
Article
"This paper presents the multidimensional demographic projection on the basis of an exponential specification, which avoids the problems associated with the widely used specification on the basis of the linear integration hypothesis. It generalizes earlier work by Gill (1986) on Markov models for closed populations to include the case of open popul...
Article
We show how a multistate projection model can be used to trace current and future dynamics in the living arrangements of the elderly. We use a household classification of 11 distinct positions that an individual person may occupy at a certain point in time. The model describes household events of individuals as they move from one household position...
Article
The paper analyses optimal investment in physical and human capital when the (exogenous) rate of population growth changes. The growth model describes a closed economy with overlapping generations and homogeneous human capital. The optimal growth path is characterized by two groups of optimality conditions: a Generalized Golden Rule for optimal inv...
Article
This paper compares the employment opportunities for graduates and dropouts of two types of education, using an estimation model for the labour market position (employed/unemployed) in the first years after leaving school. The model links the employment status at a particular point in time to the position in the previous period according to a non-h...
Article
This paper analyses optimal economic growth when the (exogenous) rate of population growth changes. The optimal growth path is characterized by a strikingly straightforward generalization of the traditional steady-state Golden Rule of Accumulation. The comparative statics results allow for a generalization of Samuelson's (1975) analysis of the lowe...
Article
PIP The significance of deviations from exponential population growth to economic development requires the construction of growth models that explicitly recognize demographic forces as a potential source of nonstationarities. This paper uses an overlapping generations approach to analyze the impact of population aging on technological innovations i...
Article
Drie eeuwen lang was er intensief migratieverkeer tussen Nederland en Nederlands-Indië. Mede door gemengd huwen ontstond een bijzondere bevolkings- groep. Een demografische reconstructie leert dat er ten tijde van de Japanse bezet- ting (1942-1945) een kleine 300.000 'Indische Nederlanders' in Nederlands-Indië woonden op een totale bevolking van ru...
Article
Dit artikel presenteert een tweetal schattingen van de omvang van de joodse populatie in Nederland. De eerste methode maakt gebruik van een demografische vooruitberekening over de periode 1966-2000, gebaseerd op: een integrale telling van de halachische joden in Nederland per 1966; veronderstellingen ten aanzien van sterfte, vruchtbaarheid en migra...

Citations

... For example, past studies of family structure in high-income countries (HICs) highlight the importance of parental time, economic and social resources for child well-being [14,15], and familial stability [16] on health. Other studies show that households provide a physical place that supports childrearing, procreation, consumption and economic production [17][18][19]. Families and homes also provide resources to identify and manage child health [20,21]. ...
... On the other hand, the United Nations, and much demographic literature, define a family as a group of related individuals sharing a household (Willekens 2009). Models for household demography describe transition among family types using multistate models and microsimulations (e.g., van Imhoff et al. 1995). ...
... Le modèle probabiliste de survie proposé par le statisticien David Cox permet, par exemple, d'étudier les probabilités de survenue d'un événement à chaque instant du parcours de vie et selon plusieurs variables explicatives (Cox, 1972 ;Mills, 2011 ;Willekens, 2014). D'autres modèles statistiques vont rendre possible la mesure d'interactions entre les différents événements d'un parcours de vie ainsi que de l'influence des éléments de contexte, pour affiner la compréhension des causalités lorsqu'un événement se produit (Willekens, 1991(Willekens, , 1999Mulder, 1993 ;Courgeau, 2002). Enfin, des algorithmes, comme l'optimal matching, permettent de comparer entre elles les séquences constituées par les parcours de vie pour les comparer selon le nombre de changements survenus, leurs types ou encore leurs ordres d'apparition (Robette, 2009(Robette, , 2011Gabadinho et al., 2011). ...
... The general answer to these questions has been known for many years, both in theory and from empirical studies (Lesthaeghe et al., 1988;Wattelar and Roumans, 1991;Blanchet, 1989;Calot, 1983;Kuijsten, 1995;van Imhoff and Keilman, 1996). The European Commission (1996) showed that to preserve the current PSR of the 15 EU countries would require 4.5m (net) immigrants per year by 2007, 7m net per year by 2024, and so on. ...
... Specifically, we use the " Family interrelationship variables " of iPumS (Sobek and Kennedy 2009) to construct a new typology for classifying individuals in various household living arrangements. this classification was inspired by the original european liPRo typology developed by evert van imhoff to project (-PRo) individual living (li-) arrangements (van imhoff and Keilman 1991; van imhoff 1995). the liPRo typology has been used for multistate projections of household positions of individuals in belgium, the netherlands, and the united Kingdom (van imhoff 1995; Surkyn 1999; department for communities and local Government 2009), as well as more extensively for studying trends in national or regional subpopulations by socioeconomic and immigrant status (deboosere 1992; deboosere et al. 1997, 2009). ...
... van Imhoff and Post 1997;Murphy 2003;Holm et al. 2006;Zaidi and Rake 2001;Morand et al. 2010;Ravulaparthy and Goulias 2011;Chingcuanco and Miller 2013). The principal difference between the different types of demographic model resides in the level of disaggregation used when applying probabilities. ...
... Moreover, each group is examined under two levels, or indicators, but the analysis does not rely on a multilevels method stricto sensu. (For details regarding this latter method, see, e.g., Goldstein, 1995;Courgeau, 1998). Table 2 displays the indicators of the shared values and shared means for each social group at each period, and reports the intra-group homogeneity index. ...
... The research followed a relational way of identifying persons and families according to their vernacular understanding of ethnic identity. By including the entire local population extracted from records and by merging all related pedigrees (Agarwala et al., 2001), most of the problems of genealogical reconstitution (Post et al., 1997;Zhao, 2001) were avoided. Thus, the registers were checked backwards and forwards to reduce the problems commonly associated with personal genealogies of known or important people (Bideau and Poulain, 1984;Dupâquier, 1993). ...
... Application of age-and sex-specific participation rates, which vary over the regions and years, results in regional labour supply (by age and sex). These participation rates are equal to the existing DGVLAB labour supply scenarios (Van Dalen et al., 1999). Underlying these rates is a set of assumptions formalised in a parametric model that includes various determining variables. ...
... In this chapter, we have shown how the multiplicative component projection model may be used to provide future estimates of internal migration by origin, destination, age and sex with measures of uncertainty. It extends earlier research using multiplicative or log-linear models to forecast internal migration (Stillwell 1986;Willekens and Baydar 1986;Van Imhoff et al. 1997; Van der Gaag et al. 2000;Sweeney and Konty 2002;Raymer et al. 2006;Van Wissen et al. 2008;Raymer et al. 2017) by modelling each component separately and integrating uncertainty. The methodology is relatively simple and robust. ...