Evangelos Voukouvalas’s research while affiliated with Engineering Ingegneria Informatica and other places

Satellite altimetry water level measurements are valuable in episodic and climate change related hydrodynamic impact studies, despite their sparse temporal distribution over the global ocean. This study presents the spatiotemporal characteristics of the open-ocean satellite derived water level measurements globally for the period 31/12/1992-15/10/2019 and evaluates their efficacy to represent the water level even during intense atmospheric conditions. Water level measurements from 23 different satellite missions are compared with tide gauge records and hydrodynamic simulations. The satellite measurements reproduce the water-level variations with good to excellent skill for ~60% of the areas considered. Additionally, satellite measurements and local atmospheric conditions are utilized in order to examine whether statistical data driven models can contribute to decreasing the temporal sparseness of the water level data over the global ocean. The suitability of this low computational-cost method is demonstrated by deriving a 63-year hindcast of the daily maximum water level for the global ocean, and for a medium-term 15-day ensemble forecast. The publicly available long-term water-level hindcast and the parameters of the data-driven statistical model derived can serve as a tool for designing and facilitating local and global coastal risk-assessment studies.

On October 30th, 2020, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck offshore from the northern coast of Samos, Greece, generating a tsunami that impacted the nearshore Greek islands and the Aegean coastline of Turkey. The 2020 Samos (Aegean Sea) tsunami is arguably the most significant event in the Aegean since the 09 July 1956 Amorgos earthquake and tsunami that produced runup values as high as 20 m on the south coast of Amorgos (Okal et al., 2009). Maximum runup reached 3.8 m along the Turkish coast (Dogan et al., 2021), and ~3 m on the north coast of Samos Island (Kalligeris et al., 2021). We present detailed results from several post-event field surveys, and report first wave arrival timing and polarity information as well as tsunami height/runup measurements, from five islands.

Accurate information on waves and storm surges is essential to understand coastal hazards that are expected to increase in view of global warming and rising sea levels. Despite the recent advancement in development and application of large-scale coastal models, nearshore processes are still not sufficiently resolved due to coarse resolutions, transferring errors to coastal risk assessments and other large-scale applications. Here we developed a 73-year hindcast of waves and storm surges on an unstructured mesh of >650,000 nodes with an unprecedented resolution of 2-4 km at the global coast. Our modelling system is based on the circulation model SCHISM that is fully coupled with the WWM-V (WindWaveModel) and is forced by surface winds, pressure, and ice coverage from the ERA5 reanalysis. Results are compared with observations from satellite altimeters, tidal gauges and buoys, and show good skill for both Sea Surface Height (SSH) and Significant Wave Height (Hs), and a much-improved ability to reproduce the nearshore dynamics compared with previous, lower-resolution studies. Besides SSH, the modelling system also produces a range of other wave-related fields at each node of the mesh with a time step of 3 hours, including the spectral parameters of the first three largest energy peaks. This dataset offers the potential for more accurate global-scale applications on coastal hazard and risk.

Accurate information on waves and storm surges is essential to understand coastal hazards that are expected to increase in view of global warming and rising sea levels. Despite the recent advancement in development and application of large-scale coastal models, nearshore processes are still not sufficiently resolved due to coarse resolutions, transferring errors to coastal risk assessments and other large-scale applications. Here we developed a 50-year hindcast of waves and storm surges on an unstructured mesh of >650,000 nodes with an unprecedented resolution of 2-4 km at the global coast. Our modelling system is based on the circulation model SCHISM that is fully coupled with the WWM-V (WindWaveModel) and is forced by surface winds, pressure, and ice coverage from the ERA5 reanalysis. Results are compared with observations from satellite altimeters, tidal gauges and buoys, and show good skill for both Sea Surface Height (SSH) and Significant Wave Height (Hs), and a much-improved ability to reproduce the nearshore dynamics compared with previous, lower-resolution studies. Besides SSH, the modelling system also produces a range of other wave-related fields at each node of the mesh with a time step of 3 hours, including the spectral parameters of the first three largest energy peaks. This dataset offers the potential for more accurate global-scale applications on coastal hazard and risk

On October 30th, 2020, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake offshore off the northern coast of Samos, Greece, generated a tsunami that impacted the nearshore Greek islands and the Aegean coastline of Turkey. Here, we describe detailed results from several post-event field surveys, and report first wave arrival timing and polarity information as well as tsunami height/runup measurements, from five islands. In Chios, wave runup reached 1.38 m, in Samos ~ 3 m, in Fourni 1.57 m, in Thimena 1.46 m, and in Ikaria 1.18 m. This event marks two milestones. One, the General Secretariat for Civil Protection of Greece, disseminated a message through Greece's 1–1-2 Emergency Communications Service to all cell phones in the eastern Aegean geographical region, warning recipients to stay away from coastal areas. According to eyewitnesses, the message was received ~ 3–5 min prior to the second and largest flood in Vathi, as the first flood had not sufficiently alarmed the local authorities to evacuate residents. Two, we were able to infer complete tsunami hydrographs from measurements for the first two floods in Vathi, which suggests that the water level rose to about one meter overland flow depth in one minute.

Sea-level rise is a direct consequence of climate change. Primarily due to ocean thermal expansion and transfer from land ice (glaciers, ice sheets) to the ocean, sea-level rise is therefore an integrated indicator of climate change. Coastal zones and communities are expected to be increasingly threatened by sea level changes, with various adverse and widespread impacts. The European Union’s Earth Observation Programmed, Copernicus, monitors our planet and its environment, for the ultimate benefit of society. This includes the monitoring of sea level changes and the provision of ancillary fields needed to assess sea-level rise coastal risks, to guide adaptation and to support related policies and directives. Copernicus is organized with a space component, including dedicated Earth Observation satellites (Sentinel missions), and services, which transform the wealth of satellite, in situ and integrated numerical model information into added-value datasets and information usable by scientists, managers and decision-makers, and the wider public. Here, an overview of the Copernicus products and services to inform on sea level rise adaptation is provided. Perspectives from Copernicus services on future evolutions to better inform on coastal sea level rise, associated risks, and support adaptation are also discussed.

The Unresolved Obstacles Source Term (UOST) is a general methodology for parameterizing the dissipative effects of subscale islands, cliffs, and other unresolved features in ocean wave models. Since it separates the dissipation from the energy advection scheme, it can be applied to any numerical scheme or any type of mesh. UOST is now part of the official release of WAVEWATCH III, and the freely available package alphaBetaLab automates the estimation of the parameters needed for the obstructed cells. In this contribution, an assessment of global regular and unstructured (triangular) wave models employing UOST is presented. The results in regular meshes show an improvement in model skill, both in terms of spectrum and of integrated parameters, thanks to the UOST modulation of the dissipation with wave direction, and to considering the cell geometry. The improvement is clear in wide areas characterized by the presence of islands, like the whole central-western Pacific Basin. In unstructured meshes, the use of UOST removes the need of high resolution in proximity of all small features, leading to (a) a simplification in the development process of large scale and global meshes, and (b) a significant decrease of the computational demand of accurate large-scale models.

In low-lying coastal areas, the co-occurrence of high sea level and precipitation resulting in large runoff may cause compound flooding (CF). When the two hazards interact, the resulting impact can be worse than when they occur individually. Both storm surges and heavy precipitation, as well as their interplay, are likely to change in response to global warming. Despite the CF relevance, a comprehensive hazard assessment beyond individual locations is missing, and no studies have examined CF in the future. Analyzing co-occurring high sea level and heavy precipitation in Europe, we show that the Mediterranean coasts are experiencing the highest CF probability in the present. However, future climate projections show emerging high CF probability along parts of the northern European coast. In several European regions, CF should be considered as a potential hazard aggravating the risk caused by mean sea level rise in the future.

Relative SLR influence on extreme sea level and CF. Bivariate validation. Univariate return periods. Fig. S1: Relative SLR influence on extreme sea level and CF. Fig. S2: Extreme values of sea level and precipitation. Fig. S3: Comparison of the dependence between sea level and precipitation based on ERA-Interim and observation data. Fig. S4: Comparison of the return periods of potential CF based on ERA-Interim and observation data. Fig. S5: Probability of potential compound flood based on individual models. Fig. S6: Changes in probability of potential compound flood driven by the astronomical tides. Fig. S7: Changing return periods of extreme sea level (no SLR) and precipitation. Fig. S8: Regional effects of SLR-driven changes of astronomical tide amplitudes on changing probability of potential compound flood. Fig. S9: Procedure for computing compound flood return periods. Fig. S10: Future change of CF return periods based on individual models.