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Taiwan recently upset a relatively delicate balance in the cross-Strait relationship through a series of dramatic moves, capped by the June 1995 visit of President Lee Teng-hui to a Cornell University reunion. These moves have been perceived in Beijing as a direct provocation, and in the most recent cycle of Taiwanese provocation and Chinese overreaction, there thus exists potential for mutual miscalculation, real crisis, and perhaps even armed conflict. These potential dangers have arisen largely in response to a long-term process of change within Taiwan and between Taiwan and the mainland. (KAR) p. 10