Eric J. Glover’s research while affiliated with Pennsylvania State University and other places

We develop a model of how information flows into a market, and derive algorithms for automatically detecting and explaining relevant events. We analyze data from twenty-two "political stock markets" (i.e., betting markets on political outcomes) on the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM). We prove that, under certain efficiency assumptions, prices in such betting markets will on average approach the correct outcomes over time, and show that IEM data conforms closely to the theory. We present a simple model of a betting market where information is revealed over time, and show a qualitative correspondence between the model and real market data. We also present an algorithm for automatically detecting significant events and generating semantic explanations of their origin. The algorithm operates by discovering significant changes in vocabulary on online news sources (using expected entropy loss) that align with major price spikes in related betting markets.

A user searching for documents' within a specific category using a general purpose search engine might have a difficult time finding valuable documents '. To improve category specific search, we show that a trained classifier can recognize pages of a specified category with high precision by using tex- tual content, text location, and HTML structure. We show that query modifications to web search engines increase the probability that the documents' returned are of the specific category.

We create a statistical model for inferring hierarchical term relationships about a topic, given only a small set of example web pages on the topic, without prior knowledge of any hierarchical information. The model can utilize either the full text of the pages in the cluster or the context of links to the pages. To support the model, we use "ground truth" data taken from the category labels in the Open Directory. We show that the model accurately separates terms in the following classes: self terms describing the cluster, parent terms describing more general concepts, and child terms describing specializations of the cluster. For example, for a set of biology pages, sample parent, self, and child terms are science, biology, and genetics respectively. We create an algorithm to predict parent, self, and child terms using the new model, and compare the predictions to the ground truth data. The algorithm accurately ranks a majority of the ground truth terms highly, and identifies additional complementary terms missing in the Open Directory.

As a whole, the World Wide Web displays a striking "rich get richer" behavior, with a relatively small number of sites receiving a disproportionately large share of hyperlink references and traffic. However, hidden in this skewed global distribution, we discover a qualitatively different and considerably less biased link distribution among subcategories of pages-for example, among all university homepages or all newspaper homepages. Although the connectivity distribution over the entire web is close to a pure power law, we find that the distribution within specific categories is typically unimodal on a log scale, with the location of the mode, and thus the extent of the rich get richer phenomenon, varying across different categories. Similar distributions occur in many other naturally occurring networks, including research paper citations, movie actor collaborations, and United States power grid connections. A simple generative model, incorporating a mixture of preferential and uniform attachment, quantifies the degree to which the rich nodes grow richer, and how new (and poorly connected) nodes can compete. The model accurately accounts for the true connectivity distributions of category-specific web pages, the web as a whole, and other social networks.

When searching the WWW, users often desire results restricted to a particular document category. Ideally, a user would be able to filter results with a text classifier to minimize false positive results; however, current search engines allow only simple query modifications. To automate the process of generating effective query modifications, we introduce a sensitivity analysis-based method for extracting rules from nonlinear support vector machines. The proposed method allows the user to specify a desired precision while attempting to maximize the recall. Our method performs several levels of dimensionality reduction and is vastly faster than searching the combination feature space; moreover, it is very effective on real-world data.

The structure of the web is increasingly being used to improve organization, search, and analysis of information on the web. For example, Google uses the text in citing documents (documents that link to the target document) for search. We analyze the relative utility of document text, and the text in citing documents near the citation, for classification and description. Results show that the text in citing documents, when available, often has greater discriminative and descriptive power than the text in the target document itself. The combination of evidence from a document and citing documents can improve on either information source alone. Moreover, by ranking words and phrases in the citing documents according to expected entropy loss, we are able to accurately name clusters of web pages, even with very few positive examples. Our results confirm, quantify, and extend previous research using web structure in these areas, introducing new methods for classification and description of pages.