Emilio Ferrara’s research while affiliated with University of Southern California and other places

Detecting organized political campaigns is of paramount importance in fighting against disinformation on social media. Existing approaches for the identification of such organized actions employ techniques mostly from network science, graph machine learning and natural language processing. Their ultimate goal is to analyze the relationships and interactions (e.g. re-posting) among users and the textual similarities of their posts. Despite their effectiveness in recognizing astroturf campaigns, these methods face significant challenges, notably the class imbalance in available training datasets. To mitigate this issue, recent methods usually resort to data augmentation or increasing the number of positive samples, which may not always be feasible or sufficient in real-world settings. Following a different path, in this paper, we propose a novel framework for identifying astroturf campaigns based solely on large language models (LLMs), introducing a Balanced Retrieval-Augmented Generation (Balanced RAG) component. Our approach first gives both textual information concerning the posts (in our case tweets) and the user interactions of the social network as input to a language model. Then, through prompt engineering and the proposed Balanced RAG method, it effectively detects coordinated disinformation campaigns on X (Twitter). The proposed framework does not require any training or fine-tuning of the language model. Instead, by strategically harnessing the strengths of prompt engineering and Balanced RAG, it facilitates LLMs to overcome the effects of class imbalance and effectively identify coordinated political campaigns. The experimental results demonstrate that by incorporating the proposed prompt engineering and Balanced RAG methods, our framework outperforms the traditional graph-based baselines, achieving 2x-3x improvements in terms of precision, recall and F1 scores.

This paper presents the TikTok 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Dataset, a large-scale, resource designed to advance research into political communication and social media dynamics. The dataset comprises 3.14 million videos published on TikTok between November 1, 2023, and October 16, 2024, encompassing video ids and transcripts. Data collection was conducted using the TikTok Research API with a comprehensive set of election-related keywords and hashtags, supplemented by third-party tools to address API limitations and expand content coverage, enabling analysis of hashtag co-occurrence networks that reveal politically aligned hashtags based on ideological affiliations, the evolution of top hashtags over time, and summary statistics that highlight the dataset's scale and richness. This dataset offers insights into TikTok's role in shaping electoral discourse by providing a multimodal view of election-related content. It enables researchers to explore critical topics such as coordinated messaging, misinformation spread, audience engagement, and linguistic trends. The TikTok 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Dataset is publicly available and aims to contribute to the broader understanding of social media's impact on democracy and public opinion.

Social media platforms have become critical spaces for discussing mental health concerns, including eating disorders. While these platforms can provide valuable support networks, they may also amplify harmful content that glorifies disordered cognition and self-destructive behaviors. While social media platforms have implemented various content moderation strategies, from stringent to laissez-faire approaches, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how these different moderation practices interact with user engagement in online communities around these sensitive mental health topics. This study addresses this knowledge gap through a comparative analysis of eating disorder discussions across Twitter/X, Reddit, and TikTok. Our findings reveal that while users across all platforms engage similarly in expressing concerns and seeking support, platforms with weaker moderation (like Twitter/X) enable the formation of toxic echo chambers that amplify pro-anorexia rhetoric. These results demonstrate how moderation strategies significantly influence the development and impact of online communities, particularly in contexts involving mental health and self-harm.

Social media platforms have become vital spaces for public discourse, serving as modern agor\'as where a wide range of voices influence societal narratives. However, their open nature also makes them vulnerable to exploitation by malicious actors, including state-sponsored entities, who can conduct information operations (IOs) to manipulate public opinion. The spread of misinformation, false news, and misleading claims threatens democratic processes and societal cohesion, making it crucial to develop methods for the timely detection of inauthentic activity to protect the integrity of online discourse. In this work, we introduce a methodology designed to identify users orchestrating information operations, a.k.a. \textit{IO drivers}, across various influence campaigns. Our framework, named \texttt{IOHunter}, leverages the combined strengths of Language Models and Graph Neural Networks to improve generalization in \emph{supervised}, \emph{scarcely-supervised}, and \emph{cross-IO} contexts. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple sets of IOs originating from six countries, significantly surpassing existing approaches. This research marks a step toward developing Graph Foundation Models specifically tailored for the task of IO detection on social media platforms.

Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we developed SAGE, a hybrid forecasting system that combines human and machine generated forecasts. The system provides a platform where users can interact with machine models and thus anchor their judgments on an objective benchmark. The system also aggregates human and machine forecasts weighting both for propinquity and based on assessed skill while adjusting for overconfidence. We present results from the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) - larger than comparable forecasting tournaments - including 1085 users forecasting 398 real-world forecasting problems over eight months. Our main result is that the hybrid system generated more accurate forecasts compared to a human-only baseline which had no machine generated predictions. We found that skilled forecasters who had access to machine-generated forecasts outperformed those who only viewed historical data. We also demonstrated the inclusion of machine-generated forecasts in our aggregation algorithms improved performance, both in terms of accuracy and scalability. This suggests that hybrid forecasting systems, which potentially require fewer human resources, can be a viable approach for maintaining a competitive level of accuracy over a larger number of forecasting questions.

Machine learning models learn low-dimensional representations from complex high-dimensional data. Not only computer science but also social science has benefited from the advancement of these powerful tools. Within such tools, word embedding is one of the most popular methods in the literature. However, we have no particular documentation of this emerging trend because this trend overlaps different social science fields. To well compile this fragmented knowledge, we survey recent studies that apply word embedding models to human behavior mining. Our taxonomy built on the surveyed article provides a concise but comprehensive overview of this emerging trend of intersection between computer science and social science and guides scholars who are going to navigate the use of word embedding algorithms in their voyage of social science research.