Emil Aslan Souleimanov’s research while affiliated with Charles University in Prague and other places

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Publications (21)


Blood Revenge in Civil War: Proof of Concept
  • Article

December 2022

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15 Reads

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2 Citations

Security Studies

Emil Aslan Souleimanov

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David S. Siroky

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Roberto Colombo

As an embedded sociocultural code, blood revenge is present in many societies where civil wars occur. Whereas evidence from other social sciences attests to its enduring global significance, security studies scholarship has largely neglected the custom of blood revenge. This article is the first to investigate its relevance for understanding the inception, dynamics, and aftermath of armed conflicts, and to present a comprehensive account of how blood revenge may shape civil wars. Drawing upon multidisciplinary scholarship, cross-case qualitative evidence, and a newly compiled dataset, this proof-of-concept article illustrates how blood revenge influences key dynamics in civil wars—specifically, the processes of violent mobilization, target selection, recruitment, defection, and disengagement. Setting the stage for further inquiries into the causes, mechanisms, and consequences of blood revenge in civil war, this conceptual article suggests why and how this sociocultural code continues to influence civil wars across the world.


Figure 1. PGm count by country.
Figure 2. Predicted probabilities of the existence of PGms.
Figure 3. expected probabilities for number of PGms.
Summary statistics.
estimating the count of PGms.
One or Many? Disentangling the Puzzle of Pro-Government Militia Deployment
  • Article
  • Full-text available

September 2022

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39 Reads

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1 Citation

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism

Why do some countries harbor pro-government militias (PGMs), while others do not? We assert that the deployment of PGMs depends on topographic, social, and political structures within which governments and rebels operate. Drawing on the concept of opportunity structures, we postulate that structural conditions within which governments are embedded in constitute a contributing factor to the existence and multiplicity of PGMs. Data from the Pro-Government Militia Dataset along with a two-stage hurdle model reveal that personalist regime type and civil wars increase the likelihood of PGM emergence. In contrast, ethnic fractionalization, onshore oil fields, drug production, number of rebel groups, and military prowess influence the number of PGMs.

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Kin Killing: Why Governments Target Family Members in Insurgency, and When It Works

May 2022

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14 Reads

Security Studies

Drawing on original interviews with ex-insurgents and eyewitnesses of the Second Chechen War (1999–2009), this article develops a theory of “kin killing,” defined as the use of lethal violence against insurgents’ relatives as a deliberate counterinsurgency tactic. Family-based targeting works by coercing insurgents to surrender or defect, deterring insurgents’ relatives from retaliation, and discouraging prospective recruits from joining or supporting insurgents. Because it targets a small number of individuals who have strong ties to insurgents, kin killing is the most selective form of collective violence. The tactic is most likely to be used by illiberal regimes that know the identity of the insurgents, but not their location, and operate in traditional societies with large, tightly knit families. Most would consider kin killing—and its nonlethal counterpart, kin targeting—ethically reprehensible, but numerous countries have employed it with varying degrees of success, including Russia, the United Kingdom, and China. Militarily dominant regimes who employ kin killing can turn family members from force multipliers into pressure points for insurgents, as regimes “flip the network” and make restraint, rather than revenge, the best way to protect one’s family.


Azerbaijan, Israel, and Iran: An Unlikely Triangle Shaping the Northern Middle East

March 2022

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52 Reads

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7 Citations

Middle East Policy

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, political commentators and students of international relations alike have been puzzled by an increasingly cordial relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan, a Muslim‐majority republic in the South Caucasus. Indeed, the unfolding alliance of the Jewish state and a tiny, energy‐rich, post‐Soviet country sandwiched between Iran and Russia has been by many seen as an anomaly. Particularly puzzled have been constructivists and adepts of geopolitics for whom the shared Shiite identity of Azerbaijan and Iran pre‐ordained a close relationship. In reality, Tehran's suspicions of Azerbaijan's economic rise, coupled with concerns over pan‐Turkic sentiments spread through Iran's northwest, and Iran's own imperial nostalgia have exacerbated an adversarial relationship. Against this backdrop, Azerbaijan's efforts to counterbalance those of Iran and Russia in the Caspian‐South Caucasus region have brought Baku to forge closer ties with Israel.


Kin Killing: Why Governments Target Family Members in Insurgency, and When it Works (Security Studies, Summer 2022)

November 2021

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210 Reads

Drawing on original interviews with ex-insurgents and eyewitnesses of the Second Chechen War (1999-2009), this article develops a theory of “kin killing,” defined as the use of lethal violence against the relatives of insurgents as a deliberate counterinsurgency tactic. Family-based targeting works by coercing insurgents to surrender or defect, deterring insurgents’ relatives from retaliation, and discouraging prospective recruits from joining or supporting insurgents. Because it targets a small number of individuals who have strong ties to insurgents, kin killing is the most selective form of collective violence. The tactic is most likely to be used by illiberal regimes that know the identity of the insurgents, but not their location, and operate in traditional societies with large, tightly knit families. Most would consider kin killing—and its non-lethal counterpart, kin targeting—ethically reprehensible, but numerous countries have employed it with varying degrees of success, including Russia, the United Kingdom, and China. Militarily dominant regimes who employ kin killing can turn family members from force multipliers into pressure points for insurgents, as regimes “flip the network” and make restraint, rather than revenge, the best way to protect the family.


Delegated Rebellions as an Unwanted Byproduct of Subnational Elites’ Miscalculation: A Case Study of the Donbas

July 2021

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21 Reads

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3 Citations

Problems of Post-Communism

The literature on delegated rebellion has treated principals (external states) and their agents (rebel groups) as the main factors in the inception of rebellion. Intriguingly, no attention has been paid to subnational elites as a separate, third actor. This article takes a novel perspective on delegated rebellion by ascribing agency to subnational elites. It introduces the theoretical concept of strategic entrapment, which shows that even subnational elites unwilling to follow the path of rebel violence may be trapped between the incipient rebel groups and a principal. As a result, subnational elites are sidelined and replaced by the principal’s rebel proxies.






Citations (12)


... There is also considerable structural violence, with high loss of economic opportunity and infrastructure, which indirectly harms civilians throughout the territory (Collier & Hoeffler, 1998;del Castillo, 2008). In addition, civil war violence often also relates to local and private conflicts or "blood revenge", which may not relate to the main cause of the war (Kalyvas, 2003;Souleimanov, Siroky, & Colombo, 2022). For example, the formation of local alliances, allegiance, and violence on the ground often relate to family feuds, individual vendettas, and rivalry. ...

Reference:

Civil war violence and competing legitimacy claims: Evidence from district level courts cases in Nepal
Blood Revenge in Civil War: Proof of Concept
  • Citing Article
  • December 2022

Security Studies

... Governments benefit from PGMs because they provide valuable intelligence to combat rebels effectively and increase support by encouraging defections to the government side (Joo and Sosa 2023, 1-3). A similar perspective is shared by Klosek and Souleimanov (2022), who identify three factors influencing the utilization of PGMs: topography, regime type, and wartime conditions. Aliyev (2016) argues that armed conflict is a factor leading to the rise of PGMs. ...

One or Many? Disentangling the Puzzle of Pro-Government Militia Deployment

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism

... These developments will be consolidated as Azerbaijan decided to open an embassy in Israel after 30 years of close relations (Lis, 2022). However, Azerbaijan's increasing cooperation with Israel enrages the Islamic Republic of Iran (Abbasov & Emil, 2022). ...

Azerbaijan, Israel, and Iran: An Unlikely Triangle Shaping the Northern Middle East
  • Citing Article
  • March 2022

Middle East Policy

... Other scholars seem to agree. For instance, Siroky et al (2022) find that "haram" (locations where certain behaviors are interpreted as being forbidden by Islam) targeting is a mechanism for overcoming collective action problems among mixed-ethnicity Salafists, while enhancing internal cohesion on the basis of the religion as a superordinate guiding force. This is supported by Braun and Genkin's (2014) finding that collectivist culture reduces the cost of suicide bombing. ...

Purifying the Religion: An Analysis of Haram Targeting among Salafi Jihadi Groups

Comparative Politics

... Although foreign mercenaries were operating in Ukraine (Habtom, 2022), it is not clear to what extent they fortified or weakened society's security, and how much they were in the war zone merely to profiteer (Pizzi, 2023). At that time, law enforcement, alongside the Ukrainian military and paramilitary (Aliyev, 2022;Laryš, Souleimanov, 2022;Aliyev, 2023;Käihkö, 2023;Mutallimzada, Steiner, 2023;Gomza, 2024;Thomson, Pankhurst, 2024), which were maintained under some state control via "undermining, co-option, incorporation and coercion" (p. 147) (Käihkö, 2018), not only served as national defense, they also offered civil protection, but in war-torn locations where there was active warfare and bombing, law enforcement sometimes appeared to be sparse, overwhelmed, or even non-existent. ...

Delegated Rebellions as an Unwanted Byproduct of Subnational Elites’ Miscalculation: A Case Study of the Donbas
  • Citing Article
  • July 2021

Problems of Post-Communism

... They are carried out in accordance with the scientific model, in which breaking, intimidating and terrorizing the society leads to the loss of the will to resist by the state leadership. Such actions are supposed to cause unacceptable costs for society and, consequently, an attitude of submission and passive acceptance of the new order, so that the defenders cannot find support in the civilian population (Colombo & Souleimanov, 2022). An essential executive subsystem of the model of brutalization of warfare is the creation of a network of filtration camps whose task is to identify civilians hostile to the aggressor. ...

Counterinsurgency Warfare and Brutalisation: The Second Russian-Chechen War
  • Citing Book
  • July 2021

... This study has demonstrated that regional patrons who gain the support of local elites are better able to solve emerging problems on the ground. On the other hand, the previous literature shows that strong governors may establish "boundary control" in their provinces and to monopolize local power (Gibson 2012;Tolstrup and Souleimanov 2022). During normal times, the national ruler can restore central control by dismissing strong regional incumbents. ...

Centre–Province Relations in Personalist Autocracies: Explaining the Emergence and Survival of Powerful Provincial Leaders
  • Citing Article
  • June 2021

Government and Opposition

... Similar to the public health sector during COVID-19 (Wang et al., 2020;Mattei & Vigevano, 2021), contingency planning related to health and mobility is now deemed crucial in fieldwork research. To tackle unprecedented uncertainty, researchers are adopting 'Plan B' or even 'Plan C' strategies to anticipate and manage unforeseen situations (Krause et al., 2021). ...

COVID-19 and Fieldwork: Challenges and Solutions

Political Science and Politics

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Ora Szekely

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Mia Bloom

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[...]

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... 8), has the potential to sink its roots exceptionally deep into a person's sense of self. Disengaging can therefore present a serious shock to the core of an individual's identity, making for a profoundly destabilizing experience which is perhaps best compared to losing one's moorings (Barrelle, 2014;Kruglanski et al., 2019;Souleimanov & Aliyev, 2020). ...

Ideology and Disengagement: A Case Study of Nationalists and Islamists in Chechnya
  • Citing Article
  • December 2019

Europe-Asia Studies

... In asymmetric intergroup conflicts, victim groups typically have lower power, with limited legal status (e.g., being not internationally recognised as a state) and fewer resources (e.g., armaments, technological, economic, demographic, and other structural resources; Berglund & Souleimanov, 2020). At the same time, perpetrator groups tend to have more power, are often recognised by other countries and have access to far more resources. ...

What is (not) asymmetric conflict? From conceptual stretching to conceptual structuring

Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict