Eline Chivot's research while affiliated with The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and other places

Publications (21)

Book
Full-text available
This study addressed the question of future food challenges and how these may play out. Part of the analysis focused on the question as to how we may enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change, increased population growth and rising incomes worldwide on future food systems. The worldwide food system is vulnerable to many influences....
Chapter
The policymaking community puts ever more emphasis on basing policy on rigorously collected and curated objective evidence (‘evidence-based policy’). But what is the equivalent for the future of what ‘evidence’ is for the past and present? This paper presents some examples of what we call ‘Foresight 3.0’: an attempt to distil more insights about th...
Book
Full-text available
"National security starts with strategic anticipation: what are the risks for the Dutch national security? How can the Netherlands prepare for this, and what choices and investments are needed in order to do so? The HCSS Strategic Monitor analyses global trends in cooperation, confrontation and conflict, and identifies the most important security...
Technical Report
Agriculture and food are central to the economic security for the Netherlands specifically, but also for the EU in a broader sense. Overall, both security of demand and supply are of vital importance for the economic security of the Dutch agriculture and food sector. The broader, long-term sustainability of Dutch agriculture is a key concern. And a...
Technical Report
Full-text available
"Palm oil and soy can be considered as two of the most important agricultural commodities in the global food system. The global annual production is ever increasing, to serve a growing world population that is now eating more meat and processed food. This has and will likely continue to have significant impacts on the environment, our ecosystems, o...
Technical Report
The modern welfare state is under stress. The Great Recession has had a severe impact on public finances in the Netherlands and in many other EU member states. While the pace of fiscal consolidation remains a very controversial topic, few would dispute the need to move public finances towards a more sustainable trajectory at some point in the futur...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The policymaking community puts ever more emphasis on basing policy on rigorously collected and curated objective evidence (‘evidence-based policy’). But what is the equivalent for the future of what ‘evidence’ is for the past and present? This paper presents some examples of what we call ‘foresight 3.0’: an attempt to distill more insights about t...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Since its last bottom-up security and defense review (2010), the Dutch government has committed itself to strengthening its ‘strategic anticipation’ function. Various public and private actors participate in this effort by examining trends and developments in the global security environment and by teasing out their potential security implications f...
Chapter
This study points to worrying trends in how far two great power contenders, Russia and China, have been willing to go to assert themselves in the international arena. It concludes that increased willingness to resort to brinkmanship has heightened the danger of a ‘Cuban Missile Crisis’-type event that could spiral into uncontrollable escalation....
Book
Full-text available
In recent years, rapid technological progress has led to a wholesale destruction of middle-level jobs and a substantial rise in income inequality. It could also bring an era of high structural unemployment. These impacts constitute a major challenge that cannot be ignored by policymakers. They affect the fundamentals of our labor market – and might...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The construction industry is one of the key economic sectors in Europe, but it was hit hard by the financial crisis. In the euro zone, employment in construction declined by a quarter since 2008. These difficult times raise important questions about the future path of the construction industry. The Sustainable Urban (Re)Construction Briefing argue...

Citations

... Semi-automated tools and AI will increasingly enable searches uninfluenced by the biases of the manual searcher. For example, the Dutch 'Metafore' horizon-scanning approach (De Spiegeleire et al., 2016), developed in The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, already uses some automated approaches to systematically collect, parse, visualise and analyse a large 'futures' database to complement their manual scanning. ...
... 1% a year in the mid-2000s, but this has dropped to approx. 0.5% in 2013 (Hinnells, Boardman & Layberry, 2007;Usanov et al., 2013;DCLG, 2013DCLG, , 2014. Social housing demolitions at their peak in the early 2000s numbered almost 20,000 per year; in the years since the economic downturn they have been running at about 8,000 per year. ...
... On the other hand, it is common to see Russian actions described as either assertive or aggressive, but how can these terms be defined? Johnston (2013) described assertiveness as a 'form of assertive diplomacy that explicitly threatens to impose costs on another actor that are clearly higher than before '. De Spiegeleire et al. (2014) define assertiveness as 'an increase in any of power projection, power assertions or in the perception of these first two by others'. They also differentiate between objective and subjective assertiveness. 'Objective' assertiveness involves a country demonstrably changing its behaviour or rhetoric and relates to the power a country proj ...
... Ras et al., 2017). Because, as recent studies showcase, new technologies are expected to make work more complex and require a highly-skilled workforce that is capable of designing, implementing and using innovative technologies in their daily operations (Usanov & Chivot, 2013). Furthermore, businesses are discovering new ways of organizing as a result of these technological developments and are working towards new business models, leading to a demand for new skills and competences too. ...
... For the strategic partnership between the EU and Japan, there are four main joint bodies, ten specialised committees and two working groups (see Table 1). The first and the oldest JB is the EU-Japan Joint Customs Cooperation Committee (JCCC), which was established in 2008 by Article 21 of the Agreement between the European Community and 4 The empirical research draws on internet-mediated research (Hewson, 2014) and web content analysis in particular (de Spiegeleire and Chivot, 2014;Herring, 2010). The research involved analysis of the records of official visits and meetings between the strategic partners (EU, Japan, India) posted on official websites of state authorities and public institutions involved in foreign policy. ...
... A significant body of international scholarship now documents the rise and spread of 'amorphous' security discourses and practices in domains ranging from environmental policy to international relations and border control (e.g. Bigo 2007;Sweijs 2012). Anthropologists, who tend to form their ethnographic perspectives alongside populations experiencing insecurity, have been quick to challenge these discourses and practices, calling attention to the vacuousness of the concept and the ramifications of security in the everyday lives of vulnerable populations (e.g. ...