Elena Kropatcheva’s research while affiliated with Hamburg University and other places

The Ukraine crisis has been the most dramatic recent crisis in Russian-Western relations. Its impact is especially strong in the Baltic Sea region (BSR). The BSR is a very important region from a security perspective. It is also a very sensitive and complex region. This chapter analyses security dynamics – cooperation and conflict – within the BSR, by focusing on multilateral security-related institutions. It shows that, despite attempts over more than twenty years to develop cooperative security and bind Russia, these attempts have largely failed. The BSR moved from being one of the most promising regions for Western-Russian cooperation to one of the most dangerous areas.

Ambivalence and misconceptions surround the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). Relying upon the literature on multilateralism, state–IGO relations, regionalism and security governance, this study examines: which goals Russia is pursuing in its CSTO policy; how Russia engages with its individual members within the organisation; how Russia uses it in five foreign policy situations and with which results. It shows that Russia’s CSTO policy is more mixed and complex than is usually assumed. Russia uses the CSTO in pursuit of unilateral ambitions but it is also searching for partners. Russia’s policy has resulted in the formation of instrumental multilateralism within the CSTO.

In 2015, the OSCE will commemorate two seminal dates: the 40th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act and the 25th anniversary of the Charter of Paris for a new Europe. This study takes these seminal dates for the OSCE as well as the current dramatic Ukrainian crisis as starting points to analyze three questions: How has Russia's relationship and role with/within the OSCE evolved throughout the years? Which role has the OSCE been playing in European security governance? How does the Ukrainian crisis affect Russia's OSCE policy and what does it mean for the OSCE? Studying Russia's OSCE policy is key to understand the OSCE's role as a framework for security governance in Europe with both its successes and failures. In order to answer these research questions, this study uses insights from (regional) security governance literature.

NATO–Russia relations have usually been considered in isolation from the broader changing international context, but bipolarity no longer reflects reality. This essay revisits the NATO–Russia relationship by placing it in the context of ‘emerging powers’, in particular China. It demonstrates that the China factor has begun – often indirectly, but significantly – to affect Russia's NATO policy and NATO–Russia relations. Despite mistrust and problems, there is also considerable potential for co-operation among these three actors. While problems in NATO–Russia relations cannot be explained by the Chinese variable alone, it nevertheless offers new insights into some of the issues.

Russian energy policy is usually considered in the regional context – in terms of its energy power capability and strength vis-à-vis the EU and the post-Soviet states. This study shows that in order to understand Russia's energy power, even in the regional context of its relations with the EU, it is necessary to consider the impact of international changes in the energy sector. The oil and gas shale “revolutions” represent such a global factor of influence. Even if their consequences are not yet clear, they have already become an important challenge for Russian energy policy and power. This policy-oriented article, guided by neoclassical realism, analyzes what the shale “revolutions” mean for Russia's energy policy and its power capabilities vis-à-vis the EU, how the Russian political elite perceive this development and how Russia reacts to it. In this context, Russian power capabilities look more moderate.

This essay explores Russia's Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) policy, by focusing on two questions. First of all, analysts have noted Russia's disinterest and obstructive policies towards the Organization. Thus, the question is what – if anything – does the Russian Federation still want from the OSCE? Secondly, does the OSCE still serve as a forum for dialog? These two issues are studied on the basis of rational institutionalism and realism. The essay demonstrates that Russia is still interested in the OSCE, but its policy has become more pragmatic, selective and instrumentalist. It includes obstructive and constructive strategies. At the same time, today the Russian Federation ascribes less significance to the Organization in European security. This is predetermined not only by its inability to push its interests through the OSCE, but also by the declining interest of other participating States in the Organization. The differences between OSCE participants have turned it into a battlefield of interests in many areas.

There are different views on (in-)predictability and on (non-)cooperation in Russian foreign policy towards the West, but also on the question about how - that is, through which theoretical framework - to interpret it. This essay aims at contributing to the debate around these three issues. Its goal is to demonstrate the expediency of using a neoclassical realist theoretical perspective, enhanced by the inclusion of such subjective factors as status/prestige and perceptions. While there are factors in Russian domestic and foreign policy which give it a certain degree of unpredictability, nevertheless, if it is studied in a comprehensive way, it turns out to be more consistent and predictable than it at first seems. Even though Russia is often accused of being anti-Western and non-cooperative, this argument does not hold true: Russian foreign policy is selective and includes both cooperative and non-cooperative tactics.

The main foreign policy puzzle after the 2010 presidential election in Ukraine is whether Viktor Yanukovych will reverse the Western-oriented policy of his predecessor in favour of a single pro-Russian vector. Another question is what impact the global financial crisis has had and will have on Ukraine's foreign policy choices. Finally, what factors are influencing foreign policy choices made in Ukraine? Neoclassical realism helps us to delineate the complexity of the situation in and around Ukraine, which makes various scenarios plausible: from a single pro-Russian or a single pro-Western orientation to attempts to conduct a balanced multi-vector policy.

Ukraine plays an important role as a transit country for the delivery of Russian energy to the EU. This study focuses on Russia's policy towards Ukraine in the energy sphere, presenting it against the background of complex geopolitical energy games, which are taking place among the three actors. Even though these actors share common interests and challenges, the geopolitical games complicate and undermine the relationships. There are no true winners. Instead of integration and opportunities, the pursuit of geopolitical benefits creates mistrust, exclusion and vulnerabilities.