Edward Pope's research while affiliated with Met Office and other places

Publications (24)

Technical Report
Full-text available
Climate change is disrupting agriculture and food production across the world, while current food production practices are also major drivers of climate change in the first place. While mitigation of emissions from the agricultural sector is essential to create a climate-safe world, this paper specifically focuses on exploring aspects of resilienc...
Article
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes. Understanding future changes in rainfall is necessary for adaptation planning. Eastern Africa is vulnerable to rainfall extremes due to low adaptive capacity and high future population growth. Convection permitting climate models have been found to better repre...
Article
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Maize is the most important crop grown in South Africa, but yields can be severely reduced by extreme high summer average temperatures and low precipitation, potentially adversely affecting both domestic consumption and regional food security exports. To help understand and manage climate risks to food security in Southern Africa it is essential to...
Article
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Climate change will put millions more people in Africa at risk of food and nutrition insecurity by 2050. Integrated assessments of food systems tend to be limited by either heavy reliance on models or a lack of information on food and nutrition security. Accordingly, we developed a novel integrated assessment framework that combines models with in-...
Article
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We identify major knowledge gaps in the primary impacts of extreme weather and climate change across the UK’s food system, its functioning and their interactions to provide information to support adaptation and resilience planning. Future shocks and stresses due to changes in weather and climate extremes will have significant impacts on the UK food...
Article
The regional economy in Yunnan, Southwest China, relies heavily on tea production. Both the quality and amount of tea production are sensitive to extreme climate events, but exactly how different timescale climate events influence tea production remains unknown. In this study, we explore the dynamic responses of tea production indices in Baoshan, Y...
Article
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Droughts and changing rainfall patterns due to natural climate variability and climate change, threaten the livelihoods of Malawi’s smallholder farmers, who constitute 80% of the population. Provision of seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) is one means to potentially increase the resilience of rainfed farming to drought by informing farmers in their...
Article
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East Africa is highly reliant on agriculture and has high rates of soil erosion which negatively impact agricultural yields. Climate projections suggest that rainfall intensity will increase in East Africa, which is likely to increase soil erosion. Soil erosion estimates require information on rainfall erosivity, which is calculated using sub-daily...
Article
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In central and southern Malawi, climate variability significantly impacts agricultural production and food availability owing to a high dependence on rain-fed maize production. Seasonal climate forecast information has the potential to inform farmers' agricultural planning, thereby improving preparedness to extreme events. In this paper we describe...
Article
Changes in climate pose major challenges to society, and so decision-makers need actionable climate information to inform their planning and policies to make society more resilient to climatic changes. Climate services are being developed to provide such actionable climate information. The successful development and use of climate services benefits...
Article
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Due to high present-day temperatures and reliance on rainfed agriculture, sub-Saharan Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change. We use a comprehensive set of global (CMIP5) and regional (CORDEX-Africa) climate projections and a new convection-permitting pan-Africa simulation (and its parameterized counterpart) to examine changes in rainfall an...
Article
Categorical probabilistic prediction is widely used for terrestrial and space weather forecasting as well as for other environmental forecasts. One example is a warning system for geomagnetic disturbances caused by space weather, which are often classified on a 10-level scale. The simplest approach assumes that the transition probabilities are stat...
Article
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The Northeast Farming Region (NFR) is a major maize cropping region in China, which accounts for about 30% of national maize production. Although the regional maize production has an increasing trend in the last decades, it has greater inter-annual fluctuation. The fluctuation is caused by the increased variations of the local temperature and preci...
Preprint
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We apply an empirical, data-driven approach for describing crop yield as a function of monthly temperature and precipitation by employing generative probabilistic models with parameters determined through Bayesian inference. Our approach is applied to state-scale maize yield and meteorological data for the US Corn Belt from 1981 to 2014 as an exemp...
Article
Full-text available
We apply an empirical, data-driven approach for describing crop yield as a function of monthly temperature and precipitation by employing generative probabilistic models with parameters determined through Bayesian inference. Our approach is applied to state-scale maize yield and meteorological data for the US Corn Belt from 1981 to 2014 as an exemp...
Article
The Northeast Farming Region (NFR) of China is a critically important area of maize cultivation accounting for ~30% of national production. It is predominantly rain fed, meaning that adverse climate conditions such as drought can significantly affect productivity. Forewarning of such events, to improve contingency planning, could therefore be highl...
Article
Full-text available
The increasingly widespread use of climate services for decision-making has highlighted the need for service developers to more clearly establish the benefits and limitations of the information they provide. Using a simple cost/loss framework applied to an idealised forecast system, we explore the critical level of accuracy required for the expecte...
Article
Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR) produces about one-third of the national maize output. Shortage of crop irrigation water is one of the main threat to the stable level of maize production in the NFR. Previous studies on the sensitivity of maize production to drought are typically based on field experiments and treat the maize growing season...
Article
Full-text available
The international effort toward climate services, epitomised by the development of the Global Framework for Climate Services and, more recently the launch of Copernicus Climate Change Service has renewed interest in the users and the role they can play in shaping the services they will eventually use. Here we critically analyse the results of the f...
Article
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The growing attention user relevance is receiving in the context of climate services is giving new light to engagement activities. However, while there is an almost unanimous consensus that these are important to the delivery of usable services, there is relatively little quantitative evidence of their impact on the usefulness of the service or its...
Article
Full-text available
The relationship between the climate and agricultural production is of considerable importance to global food security. However, there has been relatively little exploration of climate-variability related yield shocks. The short observational yield record does not adequately sample natural inter-annual variability thereby limiting the accuracy of p...
Article
The impacts of winter weather on transport networks have been highlighted by various high-profile disruptions to road, rail, and air transport in theUnited Kingdomduring recent winters. Recent advances in the predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at seasonal time scales, using the Met Office Global Seasonal forecasting syste...

Citations

... It is the primary source of calories in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), contributing about 19% of the calorie intake [3,4]. In the SSA region, maize productivity is limited by multiple factors, such as drought and high temperatures, induced by climate change [5][6][7]. ...
... In the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization, the protection of cultivated land resources is the basis for ensuring food security and promoting sustainable agricultural development, and this is a severe challenge for both developed and developing countries [4,5]. Throughout the international practice of farmland protection in developed countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan, legislation and planning are the mainstays, supplemented by other administrative and economic measures to comprehensively protect cultivated land [6,7]. ...
... The Green Revolution produced remarkable achievements in increasing food supply while leading to a suite of compromises for economic, social, and environmental outcomes [1]-including ongoing needs for rural development [2], persistent widespread malnutrition [3] and the transgression of multiple planetary boundaries [4]. To sustainably meet the grand challenge of feeding a growing and more affluent population in the coming decades, there is wide recognition that food system transitions must build upon the benefits of past food system advances while overcoming their many shortcomings [5][6][7]a problem further complicated by an increasingly interconnected food system [8][9][10][11] and its interactions with a changing climate [12][13][14]. Food system actors-including policy makers, corporations, farmers, and consumers-must meet this challenge while considering potentially conflicting priorities [15], such as environmental sustainability, economic viability, nutrition and human health, and resilience to climate change and other environmental and socio-political disruptions. Successfully navigating this deep and growing complexity to meet multiple goals simultaneously-while avoiding or minimizing tradeoffs (e.g. ...
... evaluate the possible risks caused by climate change, and formulate corresponding guarantee strategies and adaptive services (Acharya et al., 2021). Several studies have evaluated the values of using seasonal climate prediction information in climate decision-making and services, but have also pointed out that the selection of evaluation metrics in seasonal prediction systems and the improvement of seasonal prediction skills and quality still need to be explored and solved (An-Vo et al., 2021;Streefkerk et al., 2022). In this study, the capacity of three seasonal prediction models (JMA/MRI-CPS2, CFSv2 and CanCM3) and their ensemble mean in forecasting global temperature were comprehensively evaluated with deterministic and probabilistic metrics using hindcast data covering a 30-year period from 1982 to 2011. ...
... LULC and climate change are two major environmental stressors which impact profoundly the hydrology of a watershed (Wu et al., 2015;Zhang et al., 2016;Op de Hipt et al., 2019). The changing climate is scientifically well established worldwide and the impacts are evident in: marked rise in global air temperature (Haider, 2019), changes in precipitation patterns (Fowler and Kilsby, 2007), rise in sea level (Link et al., 2013), upsurge in extreme events (Fotovatikhah et al., 2018;Chen et al., 2019), land degradation (Chapman et al., 2021), loss of biodiversity (Bellard et al., 2012) as well as prolonged droughts and recurrent episodes of flooding (Sylla et al., 2016). A commonly held view is that, a warming climate enhances the rate of evapotranspiration and modifies the world's hydrological cycle (Dammo et al., 2017;Dibike et al., 2018;Shrestha et al., 2019), with consequential multiple impacts on the key sectors of the economy like agriculture, water management, energy production and health (Taormina and Chau, 2015;Akinsanola et al., 2017). ...
... Appropriate and sustained engagement with users is required for climate service providers to understand and respond to their users' needs (Tall et al., 2014). This realisation typically manifests in calls for providers to involve users in co-design and co-evaluation of information products and services, and to develop effective communication mechanisms (Mittal et al., 2021;Vincent et al., 2020). Local knowledge can play an important role in improving the utility of SCFs (Kniveton et al., 2015) by ensuring they are better-suited to local environmental and decision-making contexts, as well as being betterunderstood and trusted by local users (Plotz et al., 2017;Andersson et al., 2020). ...
... The local processes acting at the mesoscale and smaller scales not only alter the local hydrography and circulation but also feed back to the large scale. State-of-the-art climate and Earth system models would benefit from advancing our knowledge of these processes and improving parameterization (Hewitt et al., 2020). ...
... Rather than convection parameterizations, global model uncertainty still makes up the largest part of the uncertainty in future climate. Using RCMs helps to explore key sources of uncertainty further because they may respond differently to climate forcings than their driving GCM, particularly for precipitation (Chapman et al., 2020;Gao et al., 2021). This work did not evaluate uncertainty from global climate, and there is a need for improved information on sensitivities of RCMs on NUS suitability to give better predictions and make better use of the new generation of explicitconvection models. ...
... For this reason, we used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the quantile regression (QR) in our empirical analysis. These analytical techniques are more effective and robust tools for analyzing how rice and maize production respond to the changing climatic conditions in China over time than the crop simulation models commonly used in prior studies Zhang et al. 2016;Yang et al. 2017;Lin et al. 2017;Lv et al. 2018;Tian et al. 2020;Fei et al. 2020;Tian et al. 2020;Chen and Pang 2020;Jiang et al. 2021;Zhang et al. 2021). Crop simulation models are location-specific experiments that require extensive datasets regarding farm management strategies, crop growth and development, and soil samples. ...
... However, similar to all models, they require appropriate testing and evaluation. While a number of empirical and semi-empirical based models have been developed for specific crop types [23][24][25][26], the development of a 'common' model framework which is readily adaptable has been missing, therefore limiting their widespread use in new locations and/or for different crop types. The SAFY crop model was originally developed by [13] and the model was initially evaluated on WW fields in dry land areas in Morocco. ...