E. L. Burgess’s scientific contributions

Population, Employment, and Income Projections (E. S. Wallace and Dorothy Switzer) At this season of numerous forecasts for the year ahead, it seems appropriate to present in the accompanying article forecasts of certain aspects of the Nebraska economy for a much longer period. The projections, based on analysis by an impartial outside agency, present a rather gloomy picture. Some may feel that they are inconsistent with the articles in our November and December issues describing the state's new economic development program. It should be remembered, however, that nearly all states have similar programs aimed at industrial expansion, that most of them are probably older, more intensive, and better financed that the one in Nebraska, and that such efforts are necessary even to hold our own in comparison with other states. It is to be hoped that Nebraskans who do not like the picture of the future presented in the accompanying article will regard it, not as an insult, but as a challenge. We cannot meet this challenge, however, merely by trying to attract industries from other states. If they really wish to prevent the accompanying predictions from coming true, Nebraskans must demonstrate the ingenuity and initiative to conceive and develop- and the willingness to finance- industrial, trade, research, educational, and service enterprises and activities on a scale hitherto unknown. The rosy future we all desire for the state will not come automatically or easily. It must be actively sought and bought by hard, sustained, courageous, intelligently directed, unified effort on the part of all segments of the state's economy. Business Summary (E. L. Burgess) October's dollar volume of business in Nebraska (Table I) rose 13.0% from October, 1966 while the physical volume rose only 6.5% from a year ago. For the U.S. dollar volume increased 8.5% and the physical volume rose 4.0% from the October, 1966 levels. Gasoline sales (-0.7%) was the only Nebraska indicator declining from year-ago levels. In October Nebraska's construction activity index (+29.2%) was above the same month a year ago for the first time since September, 1966.

The Growth of Corporate Farming (Dorothy Switzer) The structure of agriculture, its organization and control, is changing. Although the changes now perceived are not sudden developments, they will determine the nature of tomorrow's agri-business. The focus of this article is on corporate farming, one of the institutional changes being observed in agriculture. Business Summary (E. L. Burgess) Both physical volume and dollar volume indexes of business in Nebraska indicate that the March, 1968 levels were below those of March, 1967. For the U.S., both the dollar volume and the physical volume increased from March, 1967. Construction activity dropped off considerably more in Nebraska (-27.4%) than in the U.S. (-5.4%) from March, 1967. For Nebraska and the U.S., the dollar volume and the physical volume declined from February, 1968. This is as expected since a slight seasonal surge of activity generally takes place during the month of February. Two Retire From Full-Time Teaching (Dorothy Switzer) Review

Nebraska Educational Expenditures (Dorothy Switzer) In terms of expenditure, education is by far the leading function of state and local government. In terms of socio-economic progress in the modern world, attainment of high educational standards is obligatory. Educational expenditures in Nebraska in comparison to other states, therefore, become a matter of extreme urgency as we attempt to build a climate conducive to economic and business growth. Business Summary (E. L. Burgess) January's dollar volume of business in Nebraska (Table I) rose 10.5% from January, 1967. Nebraska's physical volume for the same period rose 6.3%. This indicates a significant rise in prices during this period. The U.S. dollar volume increased 8.8% and the physical volume increased 5.2%. Nebraska's December, 1967, to January, 1968, changes in dollar volume and physical volume were +4.7% and +0.9%. January, 1967, to January, 1968, changes in the individual business indicators ranged from +1.0% for construction activity to +11.2% for life insurance sales and electricity produced. How Does Your City Grow? (E. D. Solberg)

Nebraska County and City Population Estimates for 1967 (E. L. Hauswald) Nebraska's population at the end of the 1967 is estimated to have been 1,521,654. This was an increase of 5,610 persons or nearly 0.4 percent for the year. The 1967 increase was markedly less than the 18,000 persons, or 1.2 percent increase estimated for 1966. Since April, 1960, the state's population is estimated to have increased about 7.8 percent. The estimated national increase for the same period was about 10.5 percent. Nebraska's growth continues to be notably below that of the Nation. Business Summary (E. L. Burgess) December's dollar volume of business in Nebraska (Table I) rose 2.1% from December, 1966. Physical volume for the same period rose 2.6%. In the U.S. the dollar volume increased 7.9% and the physical volume increased 4.3%. During the past twelve months Nebraska's dollar volume dropped below 1966 levels only twice (April and June) and the physical volume dipped only slightly one time (July). The business indicators and the number of months in 1967 that each was above 1966 levels are as follows: bank debits (12), construction activity (1), retail sales (10), life insurance sales (8), cash farm marketings (10), electricity produced (11), news-paper advertising (8), manufacturing emplo0yment (12), other employment (12), gasoline sales (8). County Migration (E. S. Wallace) Assuming the correctness of the Bureau's estimates of year-end population, it is possible to start with the 1960 Census, use the birth and death rate statistics, and calculate the migration into or out of each county since the Census. This has been done for the period April 1, 1960, through December 31, 1966, and the results are shown in Table III.

Nebraska's Estimated Retail Sales, 1967 (E. L. Hauswald) Retail sales of commodities in Nebraska are estimated to have reached a dollar volume 4.0 percent greater in 1967 than in 1966 -- up from $2,331 million to$2,424 million. This increase was notably less than the previous 1965-to-1966 increase of 7.0 percent. The table below presents a comparison of 1967 with 1966. Previous estimates have been published annually in the March or April issue of Business in Nebraska. Business Summary (E. L. Burgess) In February Nebraska's physical volume was 214.5% of the 1948 average which is an all-time high on the physical volume chart. Compared to February, 1967, Nebraska's dollar volume rose 6.0% and the physical volume rose 3.8%. The U.S. dollar volume rose 10.5% and the physical volume rose 6.5%. Of the Nebraska business indicators, three show percentage increases over a year ago in excess of 10%: construction activity (+11.8%), life insurance sales (+10.9%), and electricity produced (+13.2%). January, 1968, to February, 1968, changes indicate significant increases in both the dollar volume (+7.2%) and the physical volume (+7.0%). Three Promoted to Rank of Professor A Portrait of the Nation (Dorothy Switzer) When a statistical report is as spellbinding as a mystery novel it becomes more newsworthy than the oft-cited example of "man bites dog." Such is the paperbound book entitled 200 Million Americans which has just been published by the Bureau of the Census of the U. S. Department of Commerce. This is a book for every reader because it is about you, and everyone is supposed to enjoy reading about himself. Perceptively chosen pictures of unusual photographic excellence and color graphics, which vividly portray statistical data, enhance the book.

The Cost of County Government in Nebraska (Dorothy Switzer and E. S. Wallace) Data for the following article were prepared before 1967 population eatimates and tax reports were available. Use of the later figures, however, would not alter appreciably the detail of the supporting tables and would not change in any way the conclusions reached. The article provides background information on a proposed constitutional amendment on which Nebraskans will vote in November concerning which there has as yet been virtually no publicity and of which most voters are probably not yet even aware. Business Summary (E. L. Burgess) Nebraska's June, 1965, dollar volume of business was up 10% from June, 1967, accompanied by a 7.1% increase in the physical volume of business. Following this same pattern, the U.S. dollar volume rose 7.1% from June, 1967, and the physical volume rose 3.9% in the same period. The May, 1968, to June, 1965, changes for both the U.S. and Nebraska show slightly larger increase for the physical volume than for the dollar volume. Of the ten business indicators, Nebraska registered an increase in each one and in only one case, employment other than manufacturing, did Nebraska fail to show an increase greater than the U.S. averages.

Inflation: Its Measurement and Some Developments (E. L. Hauswald) "Inflation is a term which has been, and continues to be, subject to a variety of interpretations" Regardless of the interpretation and despite the likelihood of being lulled into apathy by constant references to it, mere mention of inflation still evokes marked reactions. Given, for example, a rise in the level of prices and a reluctance to alter consumption patterns, individual and group activities occur at the private and public levels, reflecting attempts to increase the real income and hence restore real consumption patterns. Business Summary (E. L. Burgess) The Nebraska May, 1968, dollar volume of business was 6.3% above May, 1967. For the same period Nebraska's physical volume increased 4.2%. Comparable changes for the U.S. were 10.3% and 5.2%. The May dollar volume and physical volume for both the U.S. and Nebraska were above April, 1968 levels. In Nebraska, retail sales was the only business indicator declining from yearago levels, which was due to the unusually high level of retail sales in May, 1967. In the U.S., construction activity was the only indicator declining from May, 1967.

The Income Tax in Nebraska (Edward B. Schmidt) As a basis for considering possible abandonment of the state income tax, Nebraskans ought to inform themselves as to the role it, along with the retail sales tax, is playing. Our State Tax Commissioner, in his 1967 Annual Report, has undertaken to supply this information. Unfortunately, too few people have access to this report; therefore, some of the facts taken from it are presented herein in somewhat condensed and modified form. Business Summary (E. L. Burgess) Nebraska's July, 1968, dollar volume of business was up 12.5% from July, 1967, accompanied by a 7.6% increase in the physical volume of business. The U.S. followed this same pattern, with dollar volume rising 10.5% from July, 1967, and physical volume rising 5.7% in the same period. Construction activity, which rose in Nebraska by 3.6% from July, 1967, to July, 1968, fell in the U.S. by 5.7%. New Bureau of Business Research Publications (Dorothy Switzer) Reorganization of the College (C. S. Miller) Area Studies Numbers Two and Three (E. S. Wallace)

Exports of Nebraska Manufacturers (Dorothy Switzer) Total exports of manufactured goods from Nebraska amounted to almost 55 million dollars in 1966, according to data revealed recently in the revised published report of a study made by the Bureau of the Census of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Figures from Nebraska fully confirm the spectacular increase in exports of the state's manufactured products reported in the August, 1967, issue of Business in Nebraska, and based on data collected in a Bureau of Business Research survey of a sample of Nebraska manufacturers. The national study also corroborates the local survey as to rapid-growth export industries in Nebraska, with both surveys showing high rates of increase in exports of all kinds of machinery, including agricultural equipment, and electrical machinery; fabricated metal products; instruments and related products; and transportation equipment. Business Summary (E. L. Burgess) November's dollar volume of business in Nebraska (Table I) rose 5.0% from November, 1966. Physical volume for the same period rose only 3.0%, this giving us an indication of the extent of rising prices. Comparison with year-ago changes in the U.S. dollar volume (+9.5%) and the physical volume (+5.7%) indicates that prices may have risen less in Nebraska than for the U.S. as a whole. Nebraska's November increase in manufacturing employment (+3.7%) over November, 1966, is the 42nd consecutive month having an increase over the same month a year ago. Reviews (Dorothy Switzer)

Implications of the Growth of Corporate Farming (Dorothy Switzer) Economic studies of farm size have shown that, as farm size increases, average costs either decrease, remain about the same, or increase slightly for very large farms- but still remain below average returns. If this were always so, large farms would be the most profitable, and it might be expected that the size distribution of farms would rapidly shift in this direction. But, as Wilcox reported to the Subcommittee on Antitrust and Monopoly, farm size has been increasing almost uniformly for all size categories. Of all farms, the largest 10 percent produced 44 percent of all farm production in 1949, 46 percent in 1959, and 48 percent in 1964. The smallest 20 percent of all farms produced about 3 percent in each of these years. Business Summary (E. L. Burgess) In April, retail sales (-3.0%) and construction activity (-27.5%) were the only Nebraska business indicators below April, 1967, levels. The indexes below. with April, 1960, equal to 100.0, indicate the extent of the decline in construction activity. Factory Farms or Family Farms (Everett E. Peterson and Glen Vollmar) Symposium on the Great Plains (Dorothy Switzer) Reviews