E H Pechan’s scientific contributions

This paper presents a discussion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory issues that have arisen during the development of state and local climate change mitigation plans (CCMPs). Recommendations for addressing these issues are provided. The authors will present inventory issues and recommendations based on CCMP work performed in several U.S. states including – Arizona (AZ); New Mexico (NM); and North Carolina (NC). A team of consultants, lead by the Center for Climate Strategies (CCS), is acting as a facilitator and technical analyst for the development of CCMPs in each of these states (with work in additional states underway). Members of this group have been involved in the development of CCMPs in other states and regions in the past. For the purposes of these CCMP processes, the GHG sources have been aggregated into four sectors: Energy Supply (ES); Transportation & Land Use (TLU); Residential/Commercial/Industrial (RCI); and Agriculture & Forestry (AF). Waste Management issues have either been included in the RCI or AF sectors. The inventories have covered all six gases typically included: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride. In addition, for the AZ CCMP process, a black carbon emissions inventory covering all sectors was also developed. These inventories are important elements of CCMP processes, as they are essential in identifying where emissions are headed and where opportunities lie for reducing emissions. In tandem with inventories, we prepare emissions projections out to 2020 (or beyond). Then, as a next key step in the development of the CCMPs, dozens of emissions-reducing policy options are considered by stakeholders in each state. As of the writing of this paper, AZ and NM stakeholders are finalizing consideration of about 50 policy options for potential approval. NC stakeholders are just beginning the review of policy options and CCMP planning processes are under development through CCS in Montana and Vermont. In addition, the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) has requested assistance from CCS in developing current and comprehensive GHG emissions inventories and forecasts for member states that do not have such assessments in place (11 states). The state of South Carolina also has requested assistance by CCS in the development of inventory and forecast assessments.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) prepares national emission estimates for the criteria air pollutants and ammonia in the National Emissions Inventory (NEI). The majority of NEI criteria point source category estimates are compiled from data submitted by State/Local/Tribal (S/L/T) agencies. Use of information from the NEI is often hampered by the lack of complete reporting of emissions activity data, which is the "driver" behind emissions estimates. Often these data are not reported due to concerns about confidentiality. In its efforts to investigate additional sources of activity data for the U.S. greenhouse gas emissions inventory, the EPA's Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD) instructed E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. (Pechan) to compile fossil fuel consumption activity estimates from Version 2.0 of the NEI for industrial boiler/internal combustion (IC) engine source categories. Because emissions activity data are often missing for these categories, Pechan developed a "decision tree" of procedures for estimating emissions activity values for industrial boiler/IC engine source category records. In conducting research in support of this effort, Pechan discovered numerous industrial boiler/IC engine records with suspect emissions activity and/or control information. Therefore, Pechan also developed quality assurance (QA) procedures for identifying suspect NEI emission activity, emission factor, and control information and for replacing the information in these fields with more reasonable default values. This paper describes the decision tree of rules and procedures that were developed in this study. Also included are comparisons of fossil fuel consumption estimates derived from NEI Version 2.0 data with consumption estimates reported by the Department of Energy. This paper concludes with a discussion of the major findings and limitations of the study, and areas for future research.

Estimates of 1973–1982 annual SO2 emissions from electric utility plants are presented in this paper. Results are based on analyses of plant level data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy on consumption and quality of fuels burned. Emissions are estimated from known information about fuel consumption, sulfur content, ash content, and control equipment. Results show that electric utility emissions decreased 16% from 1973 to 1982 and that these reductions were due to the use of lower sulfur coals and to the operation of flue gas desulfurization equipment.

This paper describes the development of a National Emission Inventory (NEI) for commercial cooking processes. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Emission Factor and Inventory Group (EFIG) produces the NEI for criteria and hazardous air pollutants (HAP s) and ammonia (NH 3). These data are needed by EPA and State agencies to evaluate emission trends and as a basis for various EPA modeling and regulatory analyses. Since the early 1990's, there have been several investigations and testing programs conducted to characterize emissions from commercial cooking activities. Commercial cooking activities were believed to be capable of producing significant amounts of criteria pollutants (especially fine particulate matter) and HAPs. This paper contains data and methods for quantifying emissions on a national level to determine the impact of commercial cooking activities on national air quality. The approach Pechan used for producing an emissions inventory (EI) of criteria pollutants and HAP s from commercial cooking for the calendar year 2002 are described. The most challenging aspect of the work was to identify appropriate activity data for the existing emission factors. This paper provides information on emission factors developed from recent test programs for commercial cooking followed by a discussion of the activity data that were used to construct the national inventory. Emissions summaries are presented to compare emission estimates for commercial cooking to other sources of fine particulate matter.

Section 812 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 requires the U.S. EPA to perform periodic, comprehensive analyses of the total costs and total benefits of program implemented pursuant to the CAA. The first prospective analysis was completed in 1999. The second prospective analysis was initiated during 2005. The first step in the second prospective analysis was the development of base and projection year emission estimates, which will be used to generate benefit estimates of CAAA programs. This paper describes the analysis methods and results of the recently completed emission projections. There are several unique features of this analysis. One is the use of consistent economic assumptions from the Department of Energy's "Annual Energy Outlook 2005" projections as the basis for estimating 2010 and 2020 emissions for all sectors. Another is the analysis of the different emissions paths for both with and without CAAA scenarios. Other features of this analysis include being the first EPA analysis that uses the 2002 National Emission Inventory files as the basis for making 48 state emission projections, incorporating control factor files from the regional planning organizations that had completed emission projections at the time the analysis was performed, and modeling the emission benefits of the expected adoption of measures to meet the 8 hour ozone NAAQS, the Clean Air Visibility Rule, and the PM 2.5 NAAQS. The results of this study have been reviewed by EPA's Science Advisory Board.

A team of contractors including ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON) and E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. (Pechan) is developing a state-of-the-science ammonia emission inventory for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in California. This gridded ammonia inventory will be used for data analysis and grid-based aerosol modeling for the California Regional PM 10 /PM 2.5 Air Quality Study (CRPAQS). The ammonia inventory will have 1-hour temporal resolution and 1-kilometer by 1-kilometer spatial resolution. The inventory will be developed using the best available ammonia emissions information for the study domain, including several ongoing studies in California. Through incorporation of information from these and other new studies, the project team anticipates that the best characterization to date of important ammonia source categories in the SJV will be accomplished. In particular, significant improvements will be made in temporal and spatial allocation of emissions for fertilizer application, livestock operations, biomass burning, and on-road mobile sources. A thorough assessment of natural soil/plant canopy systems will also be made to better characterize these emissions (i.e., whether they are sources or sinks for ammonia). The project team will adapt ENVIRON's Global Biosphere Emissions and Interactions System (GLOBEIS) model to handle ammonia emissions modeling.

New Emissions Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP) guidance on the development of emission inventories for anthropogenic sources of ammonia (NH 3) has been developed (Roe et al, 2004a). The purpose of this new emissions guidance for "anthropogenic sources" is to update the materials presented in a 1994 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report on estimating ammonia emissions (Battye et al, 1994). Updated guidance is available for estimating ammonia emissions from industrial sources, combustion sources, and miscellaneous sources. For the purposes of this guidance, the term "anthropogenic sources," excludes emissions from the agricultural sector (e.g., fertilizer application, livestock operations), as well as natural sources (e.g., soils, wild animal populations). As compared to dominant NH 3 sources such as livestock operations, the anthropogenic sources covered in this guidance are estimated to contribute small amounts to national and regional annual inventories. However, at smaller spatial and temporal scales (e.g., urban), the sources covered in this guidance can make significant contributions to an ammonia emissions inventory. The scope of this work was limited to the identification and documentation of readily-available emissions data. A literature review was performed; however, no testing programs were conducted in support of this project. The primary objective of this guidance is to provide updated information to developers of regional NH 3 inventories in support of air quality modeling.

Through its refinery initiative, EPA has established consent decrees with most of the U.S. refinery companies to reduce their air pollution emissions. As part of the EPA's Second Section 812 Prospective, an analysis of the costs and benefits of the Clean Air Amendments is being performed, and this analysis includes emission projections to 2010 and 2020. Because the petroleum refinery consent decrees are expected to produce significant criteria pollutant emission reductions by 2010, it was important to include their effects in the point source emission projections. This was accomplished by reviewing the consent decrees to determine the expected company-specific emission reduction estimates, prioritizing the companies to evaluate the settlements with the largest expected emission reductions, and focusing on the companies, facilities, and units with the most significant expected emission changes. Because the refinery settlements most affect SO 2 and NO x , this analysis focuses on the parts of the settlements that affect SO 2 and NO x emissions. This paper describes how the consent decree provisions were translated into refinery and unit-specific SO 2 and NO x control requirements for fluid catalytic cracking units, and process heaters and boilers, and incorporated in emission projection files for a national/regional modeling analysis.

With the release of MOBILE6.2, EPA has integrated the calculation of hazardous air pollutant emission factors into the MOBILE6 modeling framework. Using toxic emissions data and algorithms from EPA's Complex Model for Reformulated Gasoline, MOBILE6.2 estimates emission factors for benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein, and Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether(MTBE). These algorithms require a number of fuel parameter inputs which are not required for the estimation of criteria pollutants, such as benzene content, aromatics content, and olefin content. MOBILE6.2 also has an ADDITIONAL HAPS command which allows the user to estimate emission factors for additional hazardous air pollutants by providing data on basic emission rates or air toxic to Total Organic Gas (TOG) ratios. These data are provided in an external data file. The draft 1999 National Emission Inventory (NEI), draft version 3, uses MOBILE6.2 to develop inventory estimates for 32 pollutants. In this paper, we describe data sources and methods used to compile fuel parameters and input data for additional hazardous air pollutants, and how these data were used in conjunction with MOBILE6.2 to develop a nationwide county-level air toxic inventory for highway mobile sources. Nationwide summary statistics for the draft inventory developed using MOBILE6.2 are presented. We also compare inventory estimates for a number of HAPs to estimates developed using an earlier modeling tool, MOBTOX5b.