Dorothy Kronick’s research while affiliated with University of California, Berkeley and other places

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Publications (19)


How Maduro Stole Venezuela's Vote
  • Article

January 2025

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30 Reads

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2 Citations

Journal of Democracy

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Dorothy Kronick

On July 28 of last year, an opposition candidate defeated Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro at the polls—and then used the government's own voting technology to prove it. Yet Maduro remains in power. We explain why an elected autocrat would choose transparent, auditable vote-counting technology. Hugo Chávez, Maduro's predecessor, installed this technology when he was popular and needed to defend real electoral returns against false accusations of fraud. Maduro maintained the technology even as he lost popular support, because military loyalty provided insurance: When he actually won an election, transparent vote-counting rendered his victory maximally legitimizing; when he lost, he stayed in office anyway. We argue that Venezuela's vote-counting technology nonetheless holds promise for prodemocracy forces across the globe.


Do Police–Community MeetingsWork? Experimental Evidence from Medellín, Colombia

December 2024

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3 Reads

How can societies effectively reduce crime without exacerbating adversarial relationships between the police and citizens? In recent decades, perhaps the most celebrated innovation in police reform has been the introduction of community policing, where citizens are involved in building channels of dialogue and improving police-citizen collaboration. Despite the widespread adoption of community policing in the United States and increasingly in the developing world, there is still limited credible evidence about whether it realistically increases trust in the police or reduces crime. Through simultaneously coordinated field experiments in a diversity of political contexts, this book presents the outcome of a major research initiative into the efficacy of community policing. Scholars from around the world uncover whether, and under what conditions, this highly influential strategy for tackling crime and insecurity is effective. With its highly innovative approach to cumulative learning, this project represents a new frontier in the study of police reform.




Political Conflict and Economic Growth in Post-independence Venezuela

December 2023

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26 Reads

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1 Citation

Venezuela has suffered three economic catastrophes since independence: one each in the nineteenth, twentieth, and twenty-first centuries. Prominent explanations for this trilogy point to the interaction of class conflict and resource dependence. We turn attention to intra-class conflict, arguing that the most destructive policy choices stemmed not from the rich defending themselves against the masses but rather from pitched battles among elites. Others posit that Venezuelan political institutions failed to sustain growth because they were insufficiently inclusive; we suggest in addition that they inadequately mediated intra-elite conflict.


The illusory end of stop and frisk in Chicago?
  • Article
  • Full-text available

September 2023

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20 Reads

Science Advances

Critics of stop and frisk have heralded its recent demise in several large U.S. cities. Proponents of stop and frisk respond that when the practice ends, crime increases. Both groups typically assume that the end of stop and frisk reduces the number of police-civilian interactions. We find otherwise in Chicago: The decline in pedestrian stops coincided with an increase in traffic stops. Qualitative evidence suggests that the Chicago Police deliberately switched from pedestrian to traffic stops. Quantitative data are consistent with this hypothesis: As stop and frisk ended, Chicago Police traffic stops diverged (in quantity and composition) from those of another enforcement agency in Chicago, and the new traffic stops affected the same types of Chicagoans who were previously subject to pedestrian stops.

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Figure 1: Four Great Recessions
Figure 3: Venezuelan Oil Production, 1920-2020
Political Conflict and Economic Growth in Post-Independence Venezuela

May 2023

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315 Reads

Venezuela has suffered three economic catastrophes since independence: one each in the nineteenth, twentieth, and twenty-first centuries. Prominent explanations for this trilogy point to the interaction of class conflict and resource dependence. We turn attention to intra-class conflict, arguing that the most destructive policy choices stemmed not from the rich defending themselves against the masses but rather from pitched battles among elites. Others posit that Venezuelan political institutions failed to sustain growth because they were insufficiently inclusive; we suggest in addition that they inadequately mediated intra-elite conflict.


Fig. 1. Chávez's election temporarily scrambled Venezuela's electoral map. Using an original panel data set of municipal election returns, this figure plots the bivariate correlation (across municipalities) between (i) AD's vote share in 1958 and (ii) AD's or Chávez's vote share in each year indicated on the x-axis.
Chávez stressed constitution, opponent talked more about poverty
Backsliding by surprise: the rise of Chavismo

May 2023

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104 Reads

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3 Citations

Political Science Research and Methods

How do elected autocrats come to power? Prominent explanations point to distributive conflict. We propose instead that some candidates advertise democratic deconsolidation as “deepening democracy,” which can have cross-cutting appeal. We evaluate this proposal through the election of Venezuela's Hugo Chávez, an emblematic elected autocrat. Using original data, we find that historical voting patterns and political rhetoric are consistent with our proposal: Chávez came to power with the cross-class support of voters from across the traditional political spectrum, and his campaign emphasized rather than obscured his plan to remake political institutions.




Citations (14)


... In theory, election results should both promote transparency and protect privacy. Transparent, or granular, election results can promote confidence by helping to detect or deter electoral manipulation (4)(5)(6)(7)(8). Further, privacy, in the form of a secret ballot, can also reduce the market for vote buying and voter intimidation (9,10). ...

Reference:

Privacy violations in election results
How Maduro Stole Venezuela's Vote
  • Citing Article
  • January 2025

Journal of Democracy

... Additionally, Bhutan and Nepal's landlocked status adds complexity to their economic conditions. developing countries globally face numerous obstacles to sustainable economic growth, including infrastructure deficiencies and various institutional, political, economic, geographical and cultural barriers (World Bank, 2014;Moore, 2018;George et al., 2022;Kronick & rodríguez, 2023). these challenges necessitate innovative solutions and strong partnerships. ...

Political Conflict and Economic Growth in Post-independence Venezuela
  • Citing Chapter
  • December 2023

... My research cannot deal with this question because of data availability. However, it is crucial to note that the association between far-left and threats to democracy can be more ambiguous (Hawkins, 2016;Kronick, Plunkett, and Rodriguez, 2023). It is because the far-left authoritarians challenged the exclusiveness of parliamentary democracy in imposing neoliberal reforms. ...

Backsliding by surprise: the rise of Chavismo

Political Science Research and Methods

... Despite global efforts to transition to alternative energy, Thailand's oil consumption remained substantial at 1,277,000 barrels per day in December 2022, contributing to pollution and environmental harm [3,4]. Heavy dependence on oil has geopolitical and economic implications, fueling conflicts over resources and impacting energy costs and economic stability [5,6]. hazardous environments with low complexity and adaptability to different scenarios [18]. ...

Political Conflict and Economic Growth in Post-Independence Venezuela
  • Citing Article
  • January 2023

SSRN Electronic Journal

... In the report it is argued that "the changes in the TREP [quick count] trend were hard to explain and did not match the other measurements available" (OAS, 2019b: 3). However, reports elaborated afterward by Long et al. (2019) and another report written by Idrobo et al. (2022) showed that there was no real evidence of fraud in the elections. The Bolivian election was a crossroad in the weaking of the OAS as promoter and protector of democracy. ...

Do Shifts in Late-Counted Votes Signal Fraud? Evidence from Bolivia
  • Citing Article
  • March 2022

The Journal of Politics

... In contrast, if an intervention consistently and permanently puts officers into more positive contact with groups while working (e.g., a community policing approach), this could have a corrective effect on officers' beliefs that persists, and even magnifies, over time as officers adjust their other work (and potentially social) behavior. That said, even though our model suggests long-term interventions can yield this particular benefit, we emphasize that there still may be downsides to such interventions, especially if they do not have wide-spread support within policed populations (Blair et al., 2021). ...

Community policing does not build citizen trust in police or reduce crime in the Global South
  • Citing Article
  • November 2021

Science

Graeme Blair

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Jeremy M Weinstein

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Fotini Christia

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[...]

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Anna M Wilke

... Importantly, my findings suggest that even where moral norms of engagement and general awareness of the problem exist, these may not be enough to spur participation when people do not expect their neighbors to join the activity. Thus, in line with some other recent work, my findings suggest that social pressure from neighbors may increase participation in collective action only in contexts where descriptive norms of engagement are already entrenched in society [2,34] or when individuals share social ties with activists [35]. Moreover, some earlier work shows that descriptive voting norms are more strongly correlated with the voting behavior of the poor than the wealthy [14]. ...

Friends Don't Let Friends Free Ride
  • Citing Article
  • January 2021

Quarterly Journal of Political Science

... Tanto la no consideración de los alimentos como utilities o mercancías como otras cualquiera (Vivero-Pol, 2017;McGreevy et al., 2022) como el desperdicio de alimentos fruto de estilos de vida acelerados que rompen con los ciclos propios de la naturaleza (UNEP, 2021; Hidalgo y Martín-Marroquín, 2020). 3) Hay una dimensión política innegable ejemplificada en los lobbies del sector primario (Desiderio et al., 2024;Gulotty y Kronick, 2022), así como en prácticas monopolísticas de empresas multinacionales (Monsanto es quizá de los más conocidos) que ejercen un gran poder de mercado y de manipulación (Seralini y Douzelet, 2021;Corti, 2021). 4) Desde la dimensión medioambiental, se plantean temas como el uso de pesticidas y agroquímicos frente a sistemas más orgánicos, ecológicos o naturales, no exentos de un análisis técnico y agroforestal en profundidad. ...

The Arbitrage Lobby: Theory and Evidence on Dual Exchange Rates
  • Citing Article
  • August 2021

International Organization

... Second, we contribute to the expanding literature on the political economy of Venezuela. Handlin (2016) studies the role of mass organization, Knight and Tribin (2019), Kronick and Marshall (2018) and De Anda Casas (2023) study the role of propaganda and opposition media; Fajardo (2020) and Kronick et al. (2021) focus on the rise of chavismo and the current regime; ...

Backsliding by Surprise: The Rise of Chavismo
  • Citing Article
  • January 2021

SSRN Electronic Journal

... He demonstrates this with relatively subtle hypothetical democratic transgressions by U.S. Senators: barring some newspapers from attending a press meeting, promising quid pro quo to an interest group, making false statements in a campaign ad. Similarly, Grossman et al. (2022) show that people with majoritarian conceptions of democracy think that actions taken by a democratically elected leader are, by definition, democratic through an experiment about an outgoing governor attempting to make norm-violating judicial appointments. Wunsch, Jacob, and Derksen (2025) illustrate that people with illiberal understandings of democracy are more likely to support candidates with illiberal attitudes on judicial appointments and the role of the media. ...

The Majoritarian Threat to Liberal Democracy
  • Citing Article
  • January 2021

Journal of Experimental Political Science