Dimitri Vayanos’s research while affiliated with London School of Economics and Political Science and other places

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Publications (46)


Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
  • Article

April 2024

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24 Reads

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4 Citations

Annual Review of Financial Economics

Robin Greenwood

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Samuel Hanson

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Dimitri Vayanos

We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply and demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present in both discrete and continuous time. The key friction in the model is that the bond market is partially segmented from other financial markets: The prices of short-rate and bond supply risks are set by specialized bond arbitrageurs who must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for bonds from other preferred-habitat agents. We discuss extensions of this model in the context of default-free bonds and other asset classes.



Corrigendum: A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
  • Article
  • Full-text available

May 2023

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1 Citation

Download

Asset Management as Creator of Market Inefficiency

April 2023

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95 Reads

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1 Citation

Atlantic Economic Journal

In this paper, we describe how agency frictions in asset management can generate prime violations of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, such as momentum, value and an inverted risk-return relationship. Momentum in our theory is associated with procyclical fund flows and price over-reaction, and is more pronounced for overvalued assets. The investors who generate the momentum and who are losing from it are those requiring their asset managers to keep their portfolios close to benchmark indices. Our theory suggests a rethinking of asset management contracts. Contracts should employ measures of long-run risk and return, and benchmark indices that emphasize asset fundamentals. There should also be greater transparency on managers’ choice of strategies.






Model‐generated and empirical moments for the main sample of nominal yields.
Effect of a forward‐guidance announcement about the path of short rates for the calibration based on the main sample of nominal yields.
Effect of QE, for the calibration based on the main sample of nominal yields.
A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

January 2021

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33 Reads

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244 Citations

We model the term structure of interest rates that results from the interaction between investors with preferences for specific maturities and risk‐averse arbitrageurs. Shocks to the short rate are transmitted to long rates through arbitrageurs' carry trades. Arbitrageurs earn rents from transmitting the shocks through bond risk premia that relate positively to the slope of the term structure. When the short rate is the only risk factor, changes in investor demand have the same relative effect on interest rates across maturities regardless of the maturities where they originate. When investor demand is also stochastic, demand effects become more localized. A calibration indicates that long rates underreact to forward‐guidance announcements about short rates. Large‐scale asset purchases can be more effective in moving long rates, especially if they are concentrated at long maturities.



Citations (33)


... For example, Greenwood and Vayanos (2014) show empirically that the price of risk increases with arbitrageurs' maturity-weighted positions; therefore quantitative easing can reduce yields, even if the face value of debt outstanding is unchanged. Other applications include quantitative easing at the ELB (Hamilton and Wu (2012), King (2019)), corporate bond purchases (Gilchrist et al. (2024)), repo market dynamics (He et al. (2023), Jappelli et al. (2023), and exchange rates (Gourinchas et al. (2022), Greenwood et al. (2023)); see Greenwood et al. (2024) for a recent survey. The ATSM structure has also been embedded into a New Keynesian model suitable for monetary policy analysis (Ray (2019)). ...

Reference:

The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union
Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
  • Citing Article
  • April 2024

Annual Review of Financial Economics

... On the other hand, not all investors are green and firms can also be financed by brown capital, which does not require them to decarbonize their production processes. The proportion of green investors is difficult to estimate and is a controversial issue in sustainable finance literature: Berk and Van Binsbergen [6] estimate this share to 1% while Cheng et al. [9] use the estimate of 20% in their calibration exercise. In any case, it is clear that the presence of brown investors in the market hinders the impact of green investors on the cost of capital and the environmental performance of public companies [9]. ...

The Impact of Green Investors on Stock Prices
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

SSRN Electronic Journal

... We begin by reviewing the rapid growth of the asset management industry and the agency frictions inherent in the relationship between managers and investors. We next describe, drawing on our previous work, how agency frictions affect equilibrium asset prices, and how they generate prime violations of EMH: the value and momentum anomalies (Vayanos & Woolley, 2013;Polk et al., 2022), and the beta and volatility anomalies, whereby risk is unrelated or is inversely related to expected return (Buffa et al., 2022). Underlying our work is that asset prices move in response to fund flows in addition to asset cash flows, and that fund flows are procyclical. ...

Long-Horizon Investing in a Non-CAPM World
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... In recent years, the rapid development of big data, cloud computing and other information technologies has escalated the challenges for ordinary people to invest in financial markets. More investors have thus entrusted their assets to professional investment institutions with informational and technological advantages (French, 2008;Buffa et al., 2022). Because the compensation of institutional investors is often based on performance comparison with a benchmark portfolio, the relative performance concern often leads to excessive pegging to the benchmark, thereby inflating the prices of its constituent stocks and diminishing their returns (Cuoco and Kaniel, 2011;Basak and Pavlova, 2013;Buffa et al., 2014;Pavlova and Sikorskaya, 2023). ...

Asset Management Contracts and Equilibrium Prices
  • Citing Article
  • April 2022

Journal of Political Economy

... A recent paper, Gourinchas, Ray, Vayanos (2024), or GRV, examine PH in the context of the currency markets as well. GRV state that, "We develop a two-country model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles, and segmentation is partly overcome by arbitrageurs with limited capital." ...

A Preferred-Habitat Model of Term Premia, Exchange Rates, and Monetary Policy Spillovers
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Investigation of the "actual" returns of institutional, professional, or individual investors forms a separate problem. Different aspects of "actual" returns were studied by (Schlarbaum, Lewellen and Lease, 1978;Stanley, Lewellen and Schlarbaum, 1980;Baker and Wurgler, 2004;Ivković, Sialm and Weisbenner, 2004;Gabaix, et al 2005;Daniel and Hirshleifer, 2016;Koijen, Richmond and Yogo, 2020;Hardouvelis, Karalas and Vayanos, 2021) and others. ...

The Distribution of Investor Beliefs, Stock Ownership and Stock Returns
  • Citing Article
  • January 2021

SSRN Electronic Journal

... These findings are consistent with the theory that investors who can fly below the radar and therefore are less constrained by social norms are more likely to absorb the supply from tobacco divestments than other investors with public In the asset pricing model by Merton (1987), a small number of investors are associated with higher future returns, while in the model by Chen, Hong, and Stein (2002) a small number of investors predict higher future returns. Hardouvelis, Karalas, and Vayanos (2021) report that for small capitalization stocks, a wider investor base is associated with lower returns, but for large capitalization stocks a wider investor base implies higher returns. We document a larger number of investors for large capitalization tobacco stocks, which would be consistent with a premium for tobacco stocks. ...

The Distribution of Investor Beliefs, Stock Ownership and Stock Returns
  • Citing Article
  • January 2021

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Under the PH theory, each riskaverse investor prefers their own habitat, and that provides an explanation for the term structure of the yield curve (which did not always need to be positive), and why attempts to tweak the curve via such "operations" might fail. As Vayanos and Vila (2021), hereafter VV, note, "there are investor clienteles for specific maturity segments, and the interest rate for a given maturity is mainly driven by shocks affecting the demand of the corresponding clientele. ...

A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

... The literature describes illiquidity-related effects leading to amplifications and systemic risk in four categories: illiquidity exposures in the banking sector (Brunnermeier, & Oehmke, 2013;Lubiński, 2013), illiquidity-driven contagions in the financial markets (Shleifer, & Vishny, 1992;Brunnermeier, & Pedersen, 2009;Cespa, & Foucault 2014), illiquidity-driven crises (Shleifer, & Vishny, 1997;Gromb, & Vayanos, 2002;Cifuentes et al., 2005;Diamond, & Rajan, 2005;Brunnermeier, & Sannikov, 2014), and interbank market freezes (Flannery, 1996;Caballero, & Simsek, 2013;Acharya et al., 2011;Gorton, & Ordonez, 2014;Heider et al., 2015). ...

Equilibrium and Welfare in Markets with Financially Constrained Arbitrageurs
  • Citing Article
  • January 2001

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Haliassos et al (2017) andLouri and Migiakis (2019) for recent studies of the evolution and the 20 current state of the financial sector in Greece. See Jacobides (2017), Kaplanoglou (2019), Karkatsoulis and Stefopoulou (2017), Lambropoulou and 21 ...

Financial Development and the Credit Cycle in Greece1