Dimiter Toshkov's research while affiliated with Leiden University and other places

Publications (45)

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Political scientists have studied extensively the gap between winners and losers of democratic elections with regard to satisfaction with democracy. We ask whether the winner–loser gap extends beyond the political domain to subjective health and well-being as well. Building on insights from biology and coalitional psychology, we hypothesize that wi...
Preprint
Effective enforcement is essential for international cooperation. Accordingly, the European Union (EU) has developed a number of formal tools for enforcing its laws and policies in the members states. The application of these tools, however, has been slow, timid and uneven. One of the possible reasons for this is the fear that enforcement by supran...
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The link between age and happiness has been the subject of numerous studies. It is still a matter of controversy whether the relationship is U-shaped, with happiness declining after youth before bouncing back in old age, or not. While the effect of age has been examined conditional on income and other socio-demographic variables, so far, the intera...
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One of the major findings of the literature on Euroscepticism is that support for European integration generally declines as one moves closer to the extremes of the left-right ideological spectrum. However, in multidimensional policy space, Euroscepticism varies in more complex ways. This article explores the relief of Euroscepticism for citizens i...
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Why do people disseminate fake news online? We investigate this question by focusing on the effect of perceived conflict on the endorsement of fake news in the context of a regional conflict between Russia and the West as experienced by Ukrainian citizens. In our survey experiment, a sample of Ukrainians (N= 1,615) was randomly assigned to read neg...
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Winners and losers of elections have different stakes in protecting democratic institutions. We provide new evidence for the effects of partisanship and economic performance on support for checks and balances and acceptance of their infringement. Using survey data from 26 European countries, we show that voters who feel close to a political party t...
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Valid and reliable estimates of the policy preferences of political parties' supporters are essential for the study of political representation. However, such estimates are not directly available from standard surveys of public opinion, which are typically representative by design only at the national level and rarely ask questions about public sup...
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European states responded to the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 with a variety of public policy measures. In this article we ask what can account for this variation in policy responses, and we identify a number of factors related to institutions, general governance and specific health-sector related capacities, societal trust, govern...
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This article introduces a special issue that investigates the interplay between domestic socio-political orders and changing external influences – of the EU, Russia, Turkey and other external actors in the region. In this introduction, we lay the conceptual framework and propose theoretical mechanisms linking state capacity and the actions of exter...
Preprint
In democracies, losing free and fair elections is a normal part of politics, and the consent of losers is needed for the survival of democratic government itself. But being on the losing side of the electoral contest can trigger important changes in the political and social attitudes, and even in the life outlook and subjective well-being of citize...
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State capacity declines with democratization, yet high state capacity supports the stability of both democracies and autocracies. Ukraine has been a paradigmatic example of capacity decline in democratization and Belarus of an authoritarian regime with high capacity. We set out to discover which aspects of state capacity might contribute to opening...
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European states responded to the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 with a variety of public policy measures. Governments across the continent acted more or less swiftly to close down schools, restrict arrival into their countries and travel within their territories, ban public meetings, impose local and national lockdowns, declare state...
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This article identifies patronage networks in three Ukrainian regions and develops some ideas on the relation between these networks, economic and political openness, and the provision of public goods. The research represents a rich empirical study linking business and politics in three regions (Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Ivano-Frankivsk) with differen...
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The level of congruence between parties and their voters can vary greatly from one policy issue to another, which raises questions regarding the effectiveness of political representation. We seek to explain variation in party–voter congruence across issues and parties. We focus on the hypotheses that (1) average proximity between the positions of v...
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Does party government moderate the responsiveness of public policy to public opinion? Analysing a new dataset, we examine whether the ability of governments to respond to the public on 306 specific policy issues in Denmark, Germany and the UK is affected by the extent of coalition conflict and by the fit of the considered policy changes with the go...
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A strong link between citizen preferences and public policy is one of the key goals and criteria of democratic governance. Yet, our knowledge about the extent to which public policies on specific issues are in line with citizen preferences in Europe is limited. This article reports on the first study of the link between public opinion and public po...
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While extensive literatures study the responsiveness of policy to public opinion and the influence of interest groups, few studies look at both factors simultaneously. This article offers an analysis of the influence of media advocacy and public opinion on political attention and policy change for four regulatory issues over a relatively long perio...
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This contribution investigates the impact of the Eastern enlargement on the decision-making capacity of the European Union. On the basis of new data on the number and types of legal acts produced by the EU (1994–2014) and on the time between the proposal and adoption of legislative acts (1994–2012), the contribution argues that enlargement has had...
Article
In a recent article Sylwia Piatkowska, Steven Messner and Lawrence Raffalovich (PMR) (2016) argue that ‘entry into the EU is positively associated with levels of homicide in the 10 Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007’ (pp. 151, 158), with the implication that accession to the European Union (EU) caused higher homicide rat...
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The existence of political responsiveness in multi-level systems like the EU remains an open question despite significant recent research on the topic. This article studies whether the European Council responds to the shifting policy priorities of European citizens. More specifically, it explores the synchronic and diachronic associations between w...
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This text reports the results of an evaluation of the performance of multilevel regression modeling and poststratication (MRP) in reconstructing state-level estimates from federal-level data. The evaluation makes use of Eurobarometer data and relies on the fact that Eurobarometer provides representative survey data for each European Union state to...
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This article analyses to what extent the mechanism of the coalition conflict model of executive-legislative relations can account for the extent and policy direction of parliamentary control over domestic transposition, focusing on EU migration law. Our empirical approach is based on an in-depth cross-country comparison of the transposition of the...
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Open source software (OSS) adoption in public administrations around the world has been uneven. Despite the substantive economic and efficiency-related implications of OSS adoption, there is surprisingly little research into the determinants of the diffusion of OSS across public sector jurisdictions. In this article we explore the variation in OSS...
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It is well established that negative attitudes towards immigrants are strongly associated with lower public support for European integration. But the impact of actual immigration levels on immigration attitudes is still contested. As a result, the relationship between immigration levels and EU public support remains uncertain from a theoretical poi...
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Despite the increased use of stakeholder consultations, little is known about their impact on the legislative process. We examine how consultation of external actors during policy preparation affects decision-making duration and efficiency. We test our predictions on EU legislative decision-making and we find that although stakeholder consultations...
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Policy-making is embedded in politics, but an increasing number of issues, like obesity, tobacco control, or road safety, do not map well on the major dimensions of political conflict. This article analyzes the enactment of restrictions on smoking in bars and restaurants in 29 European countries – a conflictual issue which does not fit easily tradi...
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Asylum policy in the European nation-states has been a subject of increasing influence form the European Union over the last 12 years since the call for the establishment of a Common European Asylum System. This article presents an assessment of the EU impact on the asylum policy outcomes in the 27 member states, Norway and Switzerland. The article...
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Executive SummaryDifferent perspectives on the role of organized interests in democratic politics imply different temporal sequences in the relationship between legislative activity and the influence activities of organized interests. Unfortunately, lack of data has greatly limited any kind of detailed examination of this temporal relationship. We...
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The increased use of early agreements in the EU co-decision procedure raises the concern that intra and inter-institutional political debate is sacrificed for the sake of efficiency. We investigate the effect of early agreements (trilogues) on the time it takes for legislation to be negotiated during the first reading of co-decision. We find that t...
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The European Union (EU) is assumed to suffer from a democratic deficit. It is often posited that in the EU there is only a weak and indirect connection between public preferences and policy change. This article investigates empirically whether any relationship exists between public support for European integration and EU policy output (1973-2008)....
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This paper examines whether the European Parliament strategically adapts to the inter-institutional balance of power by allocating its resources so that it spends more time in those areas of competence where it has the greatest power. Focusing on the legislative area, the authors examine whether differences in the inter-institutional division of po...
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This paper is an accompanying text to the Compliance Database – the database of case studies of transposition, implementation, and compliance with EU law. (stract http://www.eif.oeaw.ac.at/compliance/). The database contains the results from the literature survey in a form that enables detailed overviews of individual studies as well as easy comp...
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This paper explores the relationship between administrative co-ordination of EU affairs at the national level and compliance with EU law. First, we develop two hypotheses about the impact of co-ordination. We expect that the strength of the co-ordination structure (level of centralisation and political support) will improve levels of transposition...
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Transposition performance differs significantly across countries and policy sectors in the EU. In this article we analyse the transposition efforts of all 27 member states with regard to four EC directives expected to create considerable difficulties for compliance at the national level. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we find that discr...
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Accession to the European Union (EU) demands the adoption of a vast body of legislation. This paper analyses compliance with EU directives in eight post-communist countries during the Eastern enlargement and tries to account for the puzzling embrace of EU law in Central and Eastern Europe. Drawing on a new data set tracking the transposition of a s...
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This paper examines the evolution of coordination structures for EU policy-making in the new member states from Central and Eastern Europe. The study maps the main features of the established EU coordination machineries, and traces the most important reforms of their organisational structures. It proposes an actor-centred, ‘politics of institutiona...
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This article analyses transposition of European Union (EU) social policy legislation in the new member states (NMS) from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). In order to account for the varying rate of adoption of EU law at the national level the article develops several hypotheses about the impact of government preferences and administrative capacity...
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This paper tests the argument that assigning countries into three worlds of compliance helps to explain transposition performance in the European Union. Looking into what cultural features distinguish the 'culture of compliance' worlds shows that attitudes towards law-abidingness and rule-following, and trust in the EU institutions, are not directl...
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Recent methodological advances (evolutionary factor analysis, discourse network analysis, etc.) have re-invigorated interest in the study of policy frames and discourses. In this paper we study the changing policy frames surrounding Dutch soft drugs policy. The Dutch case is especially interesting not only because the Netherlands was the first coun...
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The link between administrative discretion within EU directives and national implementation remains hotly contested in the academic literature. In this paper we offer a formal game-theoretic model which predicts that the effect of discretion on the timing of formal implementation would be contingent on the cycle of government alterations. In short,...

Citations

... It is noteworthy that research on how 'Europe' is perceived by different citizens (e.g. Kufer, 2009;Van Mol, 2022) suggests that a focus on the polysemic nature of the concept of the EU is promising, just like a recent inductive study by Toshkov and Krouwel (2022), which concludes that citizens show significant differences in how EU attitudes are related to other political attitudes. Moreover, a recent in-depth qualitative study involving dozens of strategically selected Dutch citizens from a wide variety of backgrounds demonstrates that their country's membership in the EU means different things to different people ( Van den Hoogen et al., 2022), which has thus far remained hidden from view. ...
... [28] The literature cites that happiness decreases with age. [29] However, the concept of happiness is frequently emphasized in successful aging. [30] It is known that activities rather than age and gender are effective on happiness levels in old age. ...
... Early PA research on the variation in timing and stringency of COVID crisis responses mirrors the arguments from the broader crisis management literature. Scholars have highlighted the effects of horizontal and vertical government fragmentation (Bromfield & McConnell, 2020;Toshkov et al., 2021), administrative capacities (Capano et al., 2020;Comfort et al., 2020;Kavanagh & Singh, 2020), learning from previous health emergencies (An & Tang, 2020;Capano et al., 2020;Comfort et al., 2020), as well as administrative traditions and state-society relations (Bouckaert et al., 2020; but see Plümper & Neumayer, 2020). However, these analyses are based on a small or medium number of cases and focus overwhelmingly on the US and Europe. ...
... For instance, Belarus-the country with both the largest multivariate and bivariate rating discrepancy-is a stable and ethnically homogeneous country with powerful state institutions (Way 2005) and a high capacity to control the society (Silitski 2005). Its public apparatus is characterised by low autonomy and a lack of impartiality, and its public services are broad ranging but qualitatively deficient (Dimitrova et al. 2021). Given these characteristics, it is unlikely a coincidence that Belarus has relatively high scores with SFI (0.84) and HSI (0.68) but much lower scores with QOG (0.36), CPI (0.16), WGI (0.24), Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. ...
... Trust in the Government leads to compliance in following health policies such as quarantine, COVID testing, social distancing, and other measures (Van Bavel 2020). This lack of trust may explain the later adoption of restrictive policies (Toshkov 2020). Overall, these suggest that trust is indeed related to compliance and, potentially, as a result, mortality rates. ...
... For trade, the analysis by Langbein, Gazizullin and Naumenko (2021) studies the link between trade liberalisation and political and economic openings. Theoretically, they develop the argument that trade liberalisation helps to consolidate the power position of rent-seeking elites who restrict access to economic and political resources (see also Mazepus et al., 2020). In effect, instead of promoting economic opening, trade liberalisation in a LAO can further consolidate the existing regime. ...
... When the policy disagreement is salient and dominates agreement about other policies, parties are more likely to divide along the cleavage. Empirical literature reports that the issue salience of policies is often changed by strategic intervention (Bélanger and Meguid, 2008;Wagner and Meyer, 2014;Costello et al., 2021). 4 Parties and politicians often shift the emphasis about issues to gain advantage in political competition and/or to concentrate on the same issues for political commitment. ...
... 2008; Rose, 1969Rose, , 1974Toshkov, Mäder, & Rasmussen, 2020). One of the particularly valuable analytical distinctions is owed to Richard Katz who famously distinguished between 'partyness of government'the degree to which the line-up of office-holders in the political executive, and the nature of governmental decision-making are partybased and party-centred -, and 'party governmentness', referring to the parties' organizational strength and the penetration of citizens' lives by political parties (see Katz, 1986), with high scores at this level usually being associated with the existence of a 'party state'. ...
... Bo Rothstein argued that "whatever story a political scientist tells, it is necessarily related to the political institution" [41]. These studies make it abundantly clear that political institutions influence public policy choices [42] and effective governance [43] and determine the extent of political, economic, and social development [44]. In addition, in fields including the choice of political institutions, scholars such as Peter Hall [45] and Desmond King [46] have argued that "perception" is an important factor in institutional choice and that different political and economic perceptions influence the choice of different political institutions. ...
... The problem stream is an issue that is raised by policy actors outside the government using various existing mechanisms, both through formal legal channels and paralegal channels, for example, network formation, demonstrations, deliberative polls, framing in mass media, and taking legal actions (Boydell et al., 2017;Gillad & Rimmerman, 2012;Landmark et al, 2017;Nohrstedt & Bodin, 2019;Rasmussen, et al, 2018;Sonnenberg, 2020;Zhang et al, 2017). The policy stream frames the process of making and changing policies so that policies are in line with what is desired (Béland& Howlett, 2016;Blum, 2018;Petridou & Mintrom, 2020;Shephard et al., 2020). ...