Detlef P. van Vuuren's research while affiliated with Utrecht University and other places
What is this page?
This page lists the scientific contributions of an author, who either does not have a ResearchGate profile, or has not yet added these contributions to their profile.
It was automatically created by ResearchGate to create a record of this author's body of work. We create such pages to advance our goal of creating and maintaining the most comprehensive scientific repository possible. In doing so, we process publicly available (personal) data relating to the author as a member of the scientific community.
If you're a ResearchGate member, you can follow this page to keep up with this author's work.
If you are this author, and you don't want us to display this page anymore, please let us know.
It was automatically created by ResearchGate to create a record of this author's body of work. We create such pages to advance our goal of creating and maintaining the most comprehensive scientific repository possible. In doing so, we process publicly available (personal) data relating to the author as a member of the scientific community.
If you're a ResearchGate member, you can follow this page to keep up with this author's work.
If you are this author, and you don't want us to display this page anymore, please let us know.
Publications (73)
The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, wate...
Some of the most influential explorations of low-carbon transformations are conducted with Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). The recent attempts by the IPCC to look for pathways compatible with the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature goals are a case in point. Earlier scholarship indicates that model-based pathways are persuasive in bringing specific po...
Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solution...
The goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to limit the global mean temperature increase to ‘well below’ 2°C and preferably 1.5°C (United Nations, 2016). Currently, energy production and use are responsible for more than 70% of global anthropocentric greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IPCC, 2021). Hence, complying with the Paris Agreement requires deep d...
We quantify global and regional aggregate damages from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels using a well-established integrated assessment model, PAGE09. We find mean global aggregate damages in 2100 of 0.29% of GDP if global warming is limited to about 1.5 °C (90% confidence interval 0.09–0.60%) and 0.40% for 2 °C (range 0.12–...
Achieving the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a fast transition of the energy system. This leads to consequences for energy security, which a central element of the energy strategy of many countries. Important dimensions of energy security are energy diversity and energy sovereignty. The main objective of this study is to assess...
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can act as a negative emission technology and is considered crucial in many climate change mitigation pathways that limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C; however, the negative emission potential of BECCS has not been rigorously assessed. Here we perform a global spatially explicit analysis of life-cycle...
Limiting warming to well below 2°C requires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: aviation, shipping, road freight transport, and industry. We develop and apply a novel framework to an...
This paper explores the consequences of different policy assumptions and the derivation of globally consistent, national low-carbon development pathways for the seven largest greenhouse gas (GHG)–emitting countries (EU28 as a bloc) in the world, covering approximately 70% of global CO2 emissions, in line with their contributions to limiting global...
Bioenergy is the EU's leading renewable energy source at present. Understanding bioenergy's contribution to the future EU energy mix is strategically relevant for mid to long term climate targets. This review consolidates recent projections of both supply and demand dynamics for EU bioenergy to 2050, drawing from resource-focused, demand-driven and...
Effective climate policy requires information from various scientific disciplines. Here, we construct a metamodel from climate and integrated assessment models that assesses the emissions budget, costs and uncertainty sources of achieving temperature targets. By calibrating to the model-based literature range, the metamodel goes beyond the parametr...
Limiting climate change below a given temperature will require fundamental changes in the current energy system, both in the energy supply and the energy demand sectors. Previous global model-based analyses, however, have focused mostly on energy supply transformations. Therefore, in this study we respond to this knowledge gap by analysing the futu...
In Paris in 2015, the global community agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 ∘C, aiming at even 1.5 ∘C. It is still uncertain whether these targets are sufficient to preserve marine ecosystems and prevent a severe alteration of marine biogeochemical cycles. Here, we show that stringent mitigation strategies consistent with the 1.5 ∘C scena...
Although the cement industry emits around 6% of global CO 2 emissions, most global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) barely represent this industrial subsector or do not cover all important processes. This study, describes the state-of-the-art of cement modelling in IAMs, suggests possible improvements and discusses the impacts of these on energy...
Although the rapid fall in the costs of batteries has made electric vehicles (EVs) more affordable and boosted their sales, EVs still account for only a fraction of total car sales. In the last years, the battery costs of electric vehicles have dropped faster than previously estimated in the empirical literature. As a result, future cost projection...
The future environmental impacts of battery electric vehicles (EVs) are very important given their expected dominance in future transport systems. Previous studies have shown these impacts to be highly uncertain though a detailed treatment of this uncertainty is still lacking. We help to fill this gap by using Monte Carlo and global sensitivity ana...
This study provides scenarios towards 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to asses global...
Globally, agriculture and related land use change contributed about 17% of the world’s anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2010 (8.4 GtCO2e yr⁻¹), making GHG mitigation in the agriculture sector critical to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 2°C goal. This article proposes a range of country-level targets for mitigation of agricultural emissions by allocatin...
The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial...
In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in
global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 °C
above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature
increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be
needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST
has progressed...
As part of the Paris climate agreement, countries have submitted (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which includes greenhouse gas reduction proposals beyond 2020. In this paper, we apply the IMAGE integrated assessment model to estimate the annual abatement costs of achieving the NDC reduction targets, and the additional costs i...
The industry sector is a major energy consumer and GHG emitter. Effective climate change mitigation strategies will require a significant reduction of industrial emissions. To better understand the variations in the projected industrial pathways for both baseline and mitigation scenarios, we compare key input and structure assumptions used in energ...
The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge...
Success Paris Agreement depends on implementation of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) at the national level. We assess emission trajectories and the energy system transition of 11 major economies projected by integrated assessment models (IAMs) for baseline and cost-optimal 450 ppm CO2eq mitigation scenarios, and compare the...
The power system is expected to play an important role in climate change mitigation. Variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as wind and solar power, are currently showing rapid growth rates in power systems worldwide, and could also be important in future mitigation strategies. It is therefore important that the electricity sector and the in...
We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assump...
We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-e...
This paper compares projections over the twenty-first century of SO2, BC, and OC emissions from three technologically detailed, long-term integrated assessment models. The character of the projections and the response of emissions due to a comprehensive climate policy are discussed focusing on the sectoral level. In a continuation of historical exp...
This paper presents a global simulation-model for the steel and cement industries. The model covers the full modelling chain from economic activity, to materials consumption, trade, technology choice, production capacity, energy use and CO2 emissions. Without climate policy, the future projections based on the SSP2 scenario show a rapid increase in...
In this review we synthetize the existing empirical contributions to examine the influence of institutions and governance on environmental policy, environmental outcomes, and investments. The paper describes how the relationship between institutions and various response variables related to environmental performance and environmental policy have be...
Ensuring energy security and mitigating climate change are key energy policy priorities. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report emphasized that climate policies can deliver energy security as a co-benefit, in large part through reducing energy imports. Using five state-of-the-art global energy-economy models a...
This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation...
Low-carbon transitions are long-term multi-faceted processes. Although integrated assessment models have many strengths for analysing such transitions, their mathematical representation requires a simplification of the causes, dynamics and scope of such societal transformations. We suggest that integrated assessment model-based analysis should be c...
In climate policy, substitutions metrics are used to determine exchange ratios for different greenhouse gases as part of a multi-gas strategy. The suitability of the metric depends on the policy goals and considerations regarding its practical use. Here, we present a multi-model comparison study to look at the impact of different metrics on the mit...
In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st...
Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP6) that that will provide mu...
We present a SSP-RCP modelling framework to simulate conditional probabilistic futures of global cropland areas. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS using climate and socio-economic data from the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) and the SSPs (Shared So...
Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We...
Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk pr...
This note presents preliminary calculations on the implications of the INDCs for the long-term international climate goal of keeping global temperature increase below 2 °C, compared to pre-industrial levels.
If the ambition level of the INDCs are not raised, greenhouse gases need to be reduced very rapidly from 54 GtCO2eq in 2030 to 21 GtCO2eq by 2...
To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 °C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on va...
Global emissions scenarios studies, such as those informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), highlight the importance of the transport sector for climate change mitigation—along with the difficulties of achieving deep reductions therein ( 1 ) [supplementary materials (SM)]. Transport is responsible f...
Many parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have recently put forward their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), in preparation of a post-2020 climate agreement. This model study evaluates the aggregate effect of these INDCs in terms of the implications for energy and land use systems, global...
The paper sets out a proposal for bridging and linking three approaches to the analysis of transitions to sustainable and low-carbon societies: quantitative systems modelling; socio-technical transition analysis; and initiative-based learning. We argue that each of these approaches presents a partial and incomplete picture, which has implications f...
Corporate climate action is increasingly considered important in driving the transition towards a low-carbon economy. For this, it is critical to ensure translation of global goals to greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets at company level. At the moment, however, there is a lack of clear methods to derive consistent corporate target sett...
Carbon budgets have emerged as a robust metric of warming, but little is known about the usefulness of regional carbon budgets as indicators of policy. This article explores the potential of regional carbon budgets to inform climate policy. Using the large database of scenarios from IPCC AR5 WGIII, we show that regional budgets are important metric...
The chapter starts by describing current demographic trends and corresponding Baseline projections (notably for population growth/composition including ageing, and urbanisation). It then outlines economic trends and projections, including economic growth (GDP, consumption, sectoral composition) and its drivers, such as labour and capital. These tre...
This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathways could stabilise the global average atmospheric...
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
This report presents and evaluates the role of land in climate stabilization scenarios. Specifically, we consider stabilization results from four of the EMF-21 study models, as well as more recent stabilization results from two of the EMF-21 modeling teams. We find that land based mitigation—agriculture, forestry, and biomass liquid and solid energ...
This Supporting Document contains the result of the inventory phase of the study: ¿Biomass Assessment: Assessment of global biomass potentials and their links to food, water, biodiversity, energy demand and materials¿. The study was commissioned and supported by the Netherlands Research Program on Climate Change (NRP-CC), subprogram Scientific Asse...
