Dawud Ansari’s research while affiliated with German Institute for Economic Research and other places

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Publications (17)


Figure 1
Indicators of good communication
Case study overview
Communication within the case studies
Learnings and drawbacks in the case studies

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Communicating climate change and biodiversity loss with local populations: exploring communicative utopias in eight transdisciplinary case studies
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  • Full-text available

October 2023

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354 Reads

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5 Citations

UCL Open Environment

Dawud Ansari

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Climate change and biodiversity loss trigger policies targeting and impacting local communities worldwide. However, research and policy implementation often fail to sufficiently consider community responses and to involve them. We present the results of a collective self-assessment exercise for eight case studies of communications with regard to climate change or biodiversity loss between project teams and local communities. We develop eight indicators of good stakeholder communication, reflecting the scope of Verran’s (2002) concept of postcolonial moments as a communicative utopia. We demonstrate that applying our indicators can enhance communication and enable community responses. However, we discover a divergence between timing, complexity and (introspective) effort. Three cases qualify for postcolonial moments, but scrutinising power relations and genuine knowledge co-production remain rare. While we verify the potency of various instruments for deconstructing science, their sophistication cannot substitute trust building and epistemic/transdisciplinary awareness. Lastly, we consider that reforming inadequate funding policies helps improving the work in and with local communities.

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Communicating climate change and biodiversity loss with local populations: Exploring communicative utopias in eight transdisciplinary case studies

June 2023

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398 Reads

Climate change and biodiversity loss trigger policies targeting and impacting local communities worldwide. However, research and policy implementation often fail to sufficiently consider community responses and involve them. We present the results of a collective self-assessment exercise for eight case studies of communications regarding climate change or biodiversity loss between project teams and local communities. We develop eight indicators of good stakeholder communication, reflecting the scope of Verran (2002)'s concept of postcolonial moments as a communicative utopia. We demonstrate that applying our indicators can enhance communication and enable community responses. However, we discover a divergence between timing, complexity, and (introspective) effort. Three cases qualify for postcolonial moments, but scrutinizing power relations and genuine knowledge co-production remain rare. While we verify the potency of various instruments for deconstructing science, their sophistication cannot substitute trust building and epistemic/transdisciplinary awareness. Lastly, we consider that reforming inadequate funding policies helps improving the work in and with local communities.


Conflict, health, and electricity: An empirical assessment of the electrification of healthcare facilities in Yemen

January 2023

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42 Reads

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4 Citations

Energy Research & Social Science

While the effect of energy on conflict is well-studied, scholars have rarely investigated the impacts of conflict on electricity (setups) and healthcare. Prolonged violence has exacerbated Yemen's energy crisis — a dynamic which has also affected healthcare facilities. We construct and analyse a dataset of healthcare facilities, including their power mix and conflict situation. The study addresses both researchers of the energy-health-conflict nexus and Yemen analysts. We perform interviews, QGIS mapping, hierarchical clustering, and logistic regressions to review the situation, identify relevant patterns, and estimate the conflict's impact. Our analysis reveals that most facilities (58 %) have no electricity, but patterns are diverse and non-trivial. Rural facilities have either never had electricity (‘Deserted Village Units’) or their power has been cut off (‘Brownout Stations’). In contrast, some facilities in cities have switched to sophisticated hybrid systems (‘War-torn City Hospitals’). A large, spatially concentrated group of mid-sized facilities managed to go from no electricity to all-solar (‘Solar Centres’). The role of conflict is non-monotonous and depends on the exposure and type. Both the most-affected and least-affected facilities tend to have electricity, while those in between are left behind. Ground combat decreases the probability of obtaining solar energy, while airstrikes do not. Knowledge and knowhow remain a strong lever to support development, e.g. by promoting hybrid systems and solar mini-grids. The dynamics showcase the transformative and redistributive moment of conflict which deprives some of electricity but facilitates novel technologies elsewhere. We advocate for research and policy focusing on technological shifts in conflict-affected countries.


Communicating climate change and biodiversity loss with local populations: Exploring communicative utopias in eight transdisciplinary case studies

July 2022

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415 Reads

Climate change and biodiversity loss trigger policies targeting and impacting local communities worldwide. However, research and policy implementation often fail to sufficiently consider community responses and involve them. We present the results of a collective self-assessment exercise for eight case studies of communications regarding climate change or biodiversity loss between project teams and local communities. We develop eight indicators of good stakeholder communication, reflecting the scope of Verran (2002)'s concept of postcolonial moments as a communicative utopia. We demonstrate that applying our indicators can enhance communication and enable community responses. However, we discover a divergence between timing, complexity, and (introspective) effort. Three cases qualify for postcolonial moments, but scrutinizing power relations and genuine knowledge co-production remain rare. While we verify the potency of various instruments for deconstructing science, their sophistication cannot substitute trust building and epistemic/transdisciplinary awareness. Lastly, we consider that reforming inadequate funding policies helps improving the work in and with local communities.


Communicating climate change and biodiversity loss with local populations: Exploring best-practices and postcolonial moments in eight case studies from across the globe

March 2022

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88 Reads

Climate change and biodiversity loss trigger policies targeting and impacting local communities worldwide. However, research and policy implementation often fail to sufficiently consider and involve them. Therefore, we present the results of a collective self-assessment exercise for eight case studies of communications regarding climate change or biodiversity loss between project teams and local communities. We develop eight indicators of good stakeholder communication, reflecting the scope of Verran (2002)'s concept of postcolonial moments as a communicative utopia. We demonstrate that applying our indicators enhances communication, although we discover a divergence between timing, complexity, and (introspective) effort. Three cases qualify for postcolonial moments , but scrutinising power relations and genuine knowledge co-production remain rare. While we verify the potency of various instruments for deconstructing science, their sophistication cannot substitute trust-building and epistemic/transdisciplinary awareness. Lastly, we consider that reforming inadequate funding policies helps improving the work in and with local communities.




Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055

June 2020

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261 Reads

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126 Citations

World Development

Climate-related asset stranding refers to the depreciation of assets – such as resource reserves, infrastructure, or industries – resulting from the unanticipated changes, such as the tightening of climate policies. Although developing countries – especially fossil-fuel exporters – may be most concerned by this issue, its analysis in development (economics) has so far been limited. We aim at enhancing the understanding of stranded assets by investigating its relevance in the resource sectors of three case study regions –the Middle East, China, and Latin America. For this, we analyse the regional dimensions of four interdisciplinary global energy scenarios. Specifically, we extract results from a numerical energy model (energy production, energy consumption, electricity generation) for the three regions and introduce a novel index for stranded assets. The index identifies which fossil fuel sector in each region is most prone to asset stranding and should receive the most attention from national and international policymakers. We find that considerable uncertainty exists for the Chinese coal sector as well as the Middle Eastern and Latin American crude oil sectors. We finally put our results into perspective by discussing aspects that are closely related to stranded assets for resource-rich economies such as the uncertainty in global energy and climate policy, the resource curse and diversification, economic resilience, and unequal burden-sharing of climate policy efforts between industrialised economies and latecomers. We conclude that China is more likely to engage in a green transformation than the Latin Americas or, still less, the Middle East.



Fig. 6. Fossil fuel production (left, as percent of 2015 values) and renewable electricity generation (right, as percent of total electricity) compared between the scenarios.
Fig. 7. Quantitative indicators for the four narratives.
Fig. A1. Global results for final energy consumption (top), primary energy production (middle), and electricity generation by source in Business as Usual.
Fig. A4. Global results for final energy consumption (top), primary energy production (middle), and electricity generation by source in ClimateTech.
Drivers in each scenario and their level of influence.
Anticipating global energy, climate and policy in 2055: Constructing qualitative and quantitative narratives

December 2019

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185 Reads

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34 Citations

Energy Research & Social Science

This study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary scenarios (‘narratives’) that provide insight into four distinct and diverging yet plausible worlds. They combine qualitative and quantitative elements in order to reflect the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. We use the STEMPLE+ framework to include social, technological, economic, military (security), political, environmental, and cultural (+) dimensions in our narratives. We present the construction of the narratives, which started with the generation of qualitative scenario storylines using foresight analysis techniques, including a facilitated expert workshop. We then calibrated the numerical energy and resource market model Multimod to reflect the different storylines. Finally, we combined and refined the storylines and numerical model results into holistic narratives. The study generates insights into the key assumptions and drivers of different pathways of (more or less successful) climate change mitigation. Moreover, a set of transparent and discriminatory indicators serves to identify which paths the world might take. They include quantitative results, e.g. emissions, energy consumption and electricity mix, as well as developments in the political or social sphere. Lessons learnt include the dangers of increased isolationism and the importance of integrating economic and energy-related objectives, as well as the significant role of civil society. However, we also show that the development of renewables and electrification are inappropriate indicators for a successful energy transition, as these trends are also consistent with emission-intensive scenarios.


Citations (9)


... Through the creation of participatory approaches for designing NbS, increased acceptance and ownership by citizens for NbS interventions is enhanced, while also promoting bottom-up learning and incorporation of Indigenous knowledge into project design (Naumann et al., 2023). In many instances, local communities have protested the implementation of natural resource management models that restrict their right to access resources or impede on their livelihoods and traditional ways of life (Ansari, 2023). For example, Peer et al. (2022) note that the implementation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in South Africa has, in some cases, undermined local and Indigenous communities by reducing their access to resources and having poor governance processes that do not recognise their traditional and cultural identity. ...

Reference:

COMMUNITY-LED BIOECONOMY DEVELOPMENT AND NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONS (NBS) IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH: RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE G20
Communicating climate change and biodiversity loss with local populations: exploring communicative utopias in eight transdisciplinary case studies

UCL Open Environment

... In sub-Saharan Africa, only 28 % of healthcare facilities have access to reliable electricity, and some hospitals that do have access to electricity also suffer from power outages, a daily occurrence on the continent [47]. In Yemen, 58 % of health facilities do not have access to electricity, which can partly be explained by the fact that armed conflicts can lead to displacement, which prevents the decision to improve electricity supply [48]. This lack of safe energy reduces the services that health centers can provide, limits the operation of hospitals to daylight hours, forces people to travel long distances to obtain more complex services, and can even result in a lack of health professionals due to unsatisfactory working conditions and work environment [15]. ...

Conflict, health, and electricity: An empirical assessment of the electrification of healthcare facilities in Yemen
  • Citing Article
  • January 2023

Energy Research & Social Science

... The ENERGICA project in Madagascar integrates blockchain technology for energy transactions, enabling transparent and secure energy sharing among users. Similarly, Bolivia showcases how interconnected microgrids can evolve to complement national grids, ensuring scalability and sustainability [9]. ...

Simulating the potential of swarm grids for pre-electrified communities – A case study from Yemen
  • Citing Article
  • July 2019

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

... All of the proposed visions for the future of petroleum-based economies of the Gulf region, including climate tech, tourism and green energy, require a far-reaching economic restructuring, including changes to the built environment, immigration of skilled labour and increasing energy demand (Thiollet 2016, Ansari andHolz 2020). ...

Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055

World Development

... However, these models are only sparsely represented in IPCC databases, and thus remain insufficiently reflected in this review. There are also models of fossil fuel extraction that provide more detailed and complementary evidence on coal transitions that are not covered in our data (Mendelevitch et al 2019, Ansari et al 2020, Yanguas Parra et al 2021. ...

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy

... Additionally, concerns have been raised over quantitative models' simplifying assumptions and abstract representations of real-world complex structures. The models' quantitative nature often imposes an over-simplified representation of reality, omitting nuances associated with these complex systems, boundaries, and actors involved in decision making processes (8). Previous quantitative energy modelling has therefore been criticised for the underrepresentation of social sciences and the subsequent undervaluing of the insights gained from such methodologies, particularly where it has resulted in the marginalisation of interdisciplinary and diverse perspectives (9). ...

Anticipating global energy, climate and policy in 2055: Constructing qualitative and quantitative narratives

Energy Research & Social Science

... With this paper we aim to remind researchers of these results. We show that the term introduced by Hashimoto (1985) has much wider applicability, e.g., in multi-period settings, conjectural variation approaches, stochastic models, multiple energy carriers and certain types of regulation, including emission ceilings and tradeable certificates (cf., Ansari, Holz, and Basri Tosun (2019) for an example of the latter two). Therefore, under mild convexity conditions which are fulfilled in the references in the long list on the previous page and many others, equilibria of imperfect market models can be found using convex optimization. ...

Global Futures of Energy, Climate, and Policy: Qualitative and Quantitative Foresight Towards 2055
  • Citing Article
  • January 2019

SSRN Electronic Journal

... The recent shale revolution in the United States has allowed the country to reduce the dependence on imported crude oil, moreover, profound effect has been created to the global oil market (Bataa and Park, 2017;Kupabado and Kaehler, 2024). However, market driven remains to be the core factor and the importance of traditional oil producers and still play dominant roles in the global oil market (Ansari, 2017). ...

OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and the shale revolution: Insights from equilibrium modelling and oil politics
  • Citing Article
  • December 2017

Energy Policy

... At the same time, Arouri et al. [8] proposed that the transformation of resource-based cities needs to rely on their own natural resource endowment to improve their urban functions. Peng et al. [9] evaluated different planning schemes for industrial change, and Ansari et al. [10] proposed that labor outflow from resource-exhausted areas could easily lead to a resource curse in other regions. In general, western scholars mainly study the transformation of resource-based cities from the perspectives of the mining area development life cycle, industrial upgrading, and industrial structure adjustment, and this has important theoretical and practical significance. ...

Resource curse contagion in the case of Yemen
  • Citing Article
  • September 2016

Resources Policy