Davide Furceri’s research while affiliated with International Monetary Fund and other places

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Publications (281)


Greenflation: Empirical Evidence using Macro, Regional and Sectoral Data
  • Article

February 2025

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1 Read

European Economic Review

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Davide Furceri

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Loredana Pisano

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State‐Dependent Exchange Rate Pass‐Through

October 2024

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9 Reads

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3 Citations

Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics

We estimate how the rate of pass‐through from the exchange rate to domestic prices varies across states of the economy and depending on the shocks that drive fluctuations in the exchange rate. We confirm several results from the literature and uncover new facts. Drawing on the experience of a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies over the past 30 years, we document that exchange rate pass‐through is significantly larger during periods of elevated uncertainty and when inflation is high. Using a novel identification strategy, we also show that pass‐through is higher when exchange rate fluctuations are driven by U.S. monetary policy.


A Measurement of Aggregate Trade Restrictions and Their Economic Effects

October 2024

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37 Reads

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5 Citations

The World Bank Economic Review

Julia Estefania-Flores

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Davide Furceri

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Swarnali A Hannan

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[...]

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This study develops a new Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions (MATR) using data from the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. MATR is a measure of direct and indirect official government policy related to the international flow of goods and services. MATR is simple, plausible, quantitative, easily updated, based on relevant measures of trade policy and other international restrictions affecting trade (e.g., payment restrictions), and covers an unbalanced sample of up to 157 countries from 1949 to 2019. MATR is strongly correlated with, and—importantly—more comprehensive, in terms of country and time coverage, than existing measures of de jure openness; it is also granular. As such, MATR empowers empirical analysis to increase coverage in research related to trade restrictions and other trade-related openness policies. MATR is used in the study to show that direct and indirect restrictions to trade are associated with significant contractions in output.



List of countries included in the dataset.
Descriptive statistics of the main variables used in the empirical analyses.
Climate change policies and income inequality
  • Article
  • Full-text available

August 2024

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18 Reads

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7 Citations

Energy Policy

Download



Austerity and elections

May 2024

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78 Reads

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2 Citations

Economica

This paper revisits the conventional but unproven wisdom that voters penalize governments for adopting fiscal austerity in a sample of advanced economies. We consider the composition of the austerity package and the economic manifesto of the implementing government, and find that austerity packages consisting mostly of tax hikes have a significant electoral cost, which is larger for government parties that campaigned on a free‐market manifesto. Conversely, expenditure‐based austerity is costlier for government parties that did not run on a small‐government platform, but may be beneficial for those that did.



The Effects of Fiscal Measures during COVID‐19

April 2024

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8 Reads

Journal of Money Credit and Banking

This paper empirically examines the effects of fiscal measures during COVID‐19, using a novel database of daily fiscal policy announcements—classified by type of fiscal measure—and high‐frequency economic indicators for 52 countries from January 1 to December 31, 2020. Results suggest that fiscal policy announcements have been effective in stimulating economic activity, boosting confidence, and reducing unemployment, but their effect varies by type of measure and country characteristics. Emergency lifeline measures are more effective when containment policies are stringent, providing cashflow support to most affected firms and households. Demand support measures are more effective when containment measures are relaxed.


Citations (77)


... A large literature investigates exchange rate pass-through to inflation including in Singapore. Recent cross-country works include Caselli and Roitman (2019), Carrière-Swallow et al. (2023), andCheikh et al (2023), all putting an emphasis on state-dependent exchange rate passthrough. For instance, Cheikh et al. (2023) show that the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices is high during periods of geopolitical tensions. ...

Reference:

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Singapore
State‐Dependent Exchange Rate Pass‐Through
  • Citing Article
  • October 2024

Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics

... GEF is a measure of trade restrictions developed by Estefania-Flores et al. (2022). Their measures of trade restriction consist of four components, which are exchange restriction, payment restriction, import restriction, and export restriction. ...

A Measurement of Aggregate Trade Restrictions and Their Economic Effects
  • Citing Article
  • October 2024

The World Bank Economic Review

... These policies include financial incentives, regulatory mandates, and market facilitation mechanisms, all of which reduce investment risks and enhance the economic viability of renewable energy projects. Financial incentives, such as feed-in tariffs and tax credits, make renewable energy projects more economically viable, while R&D subsidies and technology-support instruments significantly boost green innovation, particularly in competitive markets [8], [9]. Regulatory mandates, including renewable energy portfolio standards and emissions trading systems like the EU Emissions Trading System, effectively drive renewable energy innovations, though their success varies by region and technology, necessitating tailored approaches [10]. ...

Environmental Policies and Innovation in Renewable Energy

... These figures highlight that the building sector is crucial to achieving EU's energy and climate goals, and for this reason numerous European countries are actively working towards decreasing the energy usage and associated GHG emissions of their residential sector. However, attention is required in designing fair policies and setting their timing, since there is evidence that climate change policies may be associated with increased income inequality (Bettarelli et al., 2024;Gatto et al., 2023). ...

Climate change policies and income inequality

Energy Policy

... Treating a continuous variable as discrete introduces measurement error because a small error in accuracy when evaluating an observation can cause a large Alesina et al. (2019 ) show that, on average, governments that drastically reduce budget deficits are not systematically punished at the polls. Alesina et al. (2020 ) report evidence that voters punish tax-based (but not expenditure-based) fiscal adjustments. ...

Austerity and elections
  • Citing Article
  • May 2024

Economica

... The study indicates that informality reduces the positive impact of GDP on increased investment by limiting the efficient allocation of public expenditure per capita among the population of African countries. Moreover, the study by Colombo et al. (2024), conducted for 142 countries, including Mexico, shows that expansive fiscal changes, associated with changes in relative prices, imply a shift of demand towards informality, affecting the multiplier effect of public expenditure. ...

Public expenditure multipliers and informality
  • Citing Article
  • May 2024

European Economic Review

... While new technologies may not replace human resources, they do offer a potential avenue for implementing innovative and creative solutions. The use of technology affects the resilience of the economy (Copestake et al., 2024;Homayoun et al., 2024). Increased technological complexity promotes innovation and can strengthen regional economic resilience (He et al., 2023). ...

Digitalization and resilience
  • Citing Article
  • April 2024

Research Policy

... To curb soaring inflation since 2022, the Federal Reserve and other major central banks have frequently raised interest rates sharply and have continued to release the expectation of interest rate hikes, exacerbating global economic fluctuations and making world economy recovery more difficult. Arbatli-Saxegaard et al. (2024) provide new evidence on financial and real spillovers from changes in US interest rates on emerging markets and advanced economies, confirming that US monetary policy shocks have sizable spillover effects on financial conditions and economic activity, with larger effects on emerging market economies: a 100-basis point unanticipated monetary policy shock is estimated to increase long-term domestic bond yields in other countries by~25-35 basis points, with a higher pass-through for emerging market economies and during the period after the global financial crisis. Considering the effectiveness of monetary policy practices in Europe and the U.S., the "Quantitative Easing" monetary policy has increased the risk appetite of financial institutions, strengthened the willingness of commercial banks to bear risks to a certain extent and led to the precipitation and aggregation of risks in the financial system. ...

Spillovers from US Monetary Policy: Role of Policy Drivers and Cyclical Conditions
  • Citing Article
  • March 2024

Journal of International Money and Finance

... As noted by the literature, participation in global production networks promotes the diversification of assets, gives access to different assets not available locally and to new markets (Van Meeteren et al., 2016;Iammarino and McCann, 2013;Rodriguez-Pose and Fitjar, 2012). Moreover, the geographical fragmentation of networks allows connected local systems to reduce losses from asymmetric shocks and to avoid situations of entropic death or cognitive lock-in, thus ensuring an improved efficiency to the entire economic system (Bathelt et al., 2004;Boschma, 2005;Camagni, 1991;Frenken et al., 2007;Neal, 2011;Pain et al., 2016;Ter Wal & Boschma, 2011;Ter Wal and Boschma, 2011;Bettarelli et al., 2024). In other words, being part of a global network helps regions to develop and prosper. ...

Regional Fiscal Spillovers: The Role of Trade Linkages•
  • Citing Article
  • November 2023

Journal of International Money and Finance

... In contrast with existing trade policy indicators, the MATR has a long-time coverage, is simple, and based on sensible, plausible, trade policy inputs obtained from a transparent and reliable source, which is easily accessible (for example, Campos et al., 2023). It has also been used in some recent studies (for example, Campos et al., 2023;Estefania-Flores et al., 2023;Hellwig, 2023;IMF, 2022;Kose et al. 2023). We have used available data to construct a panel dataset of 87 developing countries over the period from 1986 to 2020. ...

Are Trade Restrictions Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from a New Aggregate Measure
  • Citing Article
  • August 2023

Journal of Policy Modeling