David R. Anderson's research while affiliated with Colorado State University and other places
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Publications (84)
Distance sampling is a widely used group of closely related methods for estimating the density and/or abundance of biological populations. The main methods are line-transect sampling and point-transect sampling. In both cases, observer(s) perform a standardized survey along a series of randomly located lines or points, searching for objects of inte...
We analyzed data of adult mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) banded throughout North America during the past 30 years, using a model developed to estimate heterogeneity in survival rates of marked individuals. The model incorporating heterogeneity in survival rates was often the most parsimonious model for the data sets analyzed, thus constituting an ad...
We briefly outline the information-theoretic (I-T) approaches to valid inference including a review of some simple methods
for making formal inference from all the hypotheses in the model set (multimodel inference). The I-T approaches can replace
the usual t tests and ANOVA tables that are so inferentially limited, but still commonly used. The I-T...
We used data from 11 long-term studies to assess temporal and spatial patterns in fecundity, apparent survival, recruitment, and annual finite rate of population change of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) from 1985 to 2008. Our objectives were to evaluate the status and trends of the subspecies throughout its range and to investig...
Abstract Although several studies have indicated the importance of forbs in brood habitats, no studies have quantified direct effects of the amount of forb cover on sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) chicks. In 2002 and 2003, we conducted field experiments in Middle Park and Moffat County, Colorado, USA, respectively. Our objective was to quan...
A general, consistent strategy for data analysis is outlined, based on information and likelihood theory. A priori considerations lead to the definition of a set of candidate models, simple criteria are useful in ranking and calibrating the models based on estimates of (relative) Kullback-Leibler information, inference can be based on either the be...
In situations where limited knowledge of a system exists and the ratio of data points to variables is small, variable selection
methods can often be misleading. Freedman (Am Stat 37:152–155, 1983) demonstrated how common it is to select completely unrelated
variables as highly “significant” when the number of data points is similar in magnitude to...
Counting techniques are widely used to study and monitor terrestrial birds. To assess current applications of counting techniques, we reviewed landbird studies published 1989-1998 in nine major journals and one symposium. Commonly used techniques fell into two groups: Procedures that used counts of bird detections as an index to abundance (index co...
The development of statistical methods for the analysis of demographic processes in marked animal populations has brought
with it the challenges of communication between the disciplines of statistics, ecology, evolutionary biology and computer
science. In order to aid communication and comprehension, we sought to root out a number of cases of ambig...
Science is about discovering new things, about better understanding processes and systems, and generally furthering our knowledge. Deep in science philosophy is the notion of hypotheses and mathematical models to represent these hypotheses. It is partially the quantification of hypotheses that provides the illusive concept of rigor in science. Scie...
Stephens et al . (2005 ) argue for ‘pluralism’ in statistical analysis, combining null hypothesis testing and information‐theoretic (I‐T) methods. We show that I‐T methods are more informative even in single variable problems and we provide an ecological example.
I‐T methods allow inferences to be made from multiple models simultaneously. We believ...
Distance sampling is a widely used group of closely related methods for estimating the density and/or abundance of biological populations. The main methods are line-transect sampling and point-transect sampling. In both cases, observer(s) perform a standardized survey along a series of randomly located lines or points, searching for objects of inte...
We analyzed demographic data from northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) from 14 study areas in Washington, Oregon, and California for 1985–2003. The purpose of our analyses was to provide an assessment of the status and trends of northern spotted owl populations throughout most of their geographic range. The 14 study areas made up appr...
Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis) are territorial, generally nonmigratory, and strongly philopatric. Nevertheless, California Spotted Owls (S. o. occidentalis) exhibited breeding dispersal during 7% of interannual observations of banded individuals (n = 54 of 743 occasions). Based on ecological theory and published literature, we made a priori pred...
Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis) are territorial, generally nonmigratory, and strongly philopatric. Nevertheless, California Spotted Owls (S. o. occidentalis) exhibited breeding dispersal during 7% of interannual observations of banded individuals (n = 54 of 743 occasions). Based on ecological theory and published literature, we made a priori pred...
The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) has been at the center of political and administrative debate due to its association with commercially valuable forest. Several studies have compared the forest cover types used by California spotted owls with the cover types that are generally available, establishing the association betw...
Distance sampling covers a range of methods in which distances of detected objects (usually animals) from a line or point are recorded, from which object density or abundance is estimated. The most widely used methods are line transect sampling and point transect sampling. Objects on the line or point are usually assumed to be detected with certain...
The trapping web is a method for estimating the density and abundance of animal populations. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to explore performance of the trapping web for estimating animal density under a variety of web designs and animal behaviours. The trapping performs well when animals have home ranges, even if the home ranges are...
This advanced text focuses on the uses of distance sampling to estimate the density and abundance of biological populations. It addresses new methodologies, new technologies and recent developments in statistical theory and is the follow up companion to Introduction to Distance Sampling (OUP, 2001). In this text, a general theoretical basis is esta...
This chapter gives results from some illustrative exploration of the performance of information-theoretic criteria for model selection and methods to quantify precision when there is model selection uncertainty. The methods given in Chapter 4 are illustrated and additional insights are provided based on simulation and real data. Section 5.2 utilize...
We offer suggestions for improving the validity of scientific inferences in wildlife ecology and management. These suggestions are offered under 7 categories as subjects of debate and refinement within our profession: university education, manuscript review and publi- cation, professional meetings, in-service training, agency funding, review of fie...
While Engeman (2003) makes a good case for the importance of study design and that studies that provide only index values are sometimes easier and less expensive, I find I do not agree with his central comments concerning the value of indices. Without estimates of detection probabilities, the use of index values is without a scientific or logical b...
Statistical models for estimating absolute densities of field populations of animals have been widely used over the last century in both scientific studies and wildlife management programs. To date, two general classes of density estimation models have been developed: models that use data sets from capture-recapture or removal sampling techniques (...
We offer suggestions to avoid misuse of information-theoretic methods in wildlife laboratory and field studies. Our suggestions relate to basic science issues and the need to ask deeper questions (4 problems are noted), errors in the way that analytical methods are used (7 problems), and outright mistakes seen commonly in the published literature (...
We obtained banding and recovery data from the Bird Banding Laboratory (operated by the Biological Resources Division of the US Geological Survey) for adults from 129 avian species that had been continuously banded for > 24 years. Data were partitioned by gender, banding period (winter versus summer), and by states/provinces. Data sets were initial...
Counting techniques are widely used to study and monitor terrestrial birds. To assess current applications of counting techniques, we reviewed landbird studies published 1989–1998 in nine major journals and one symposium. Commonly used techniques fell into two groups: procedures that used counts of bird detections as an index to abundance (index co...
Conflicts often arise in the management of natural resources. Often they result from differing perceptions, varying interpretations of the law, and self-interests among stakeholder groups (for example, the values and perceptions about spotted owls and forest management differ markedly among environmental groups, government regulatory agencies, and...
We give suggestions for the presentation of research results from frequentist, information-theoretic, and Bayesian analysis paradigms, followed by several general suggestions. The information-theoretic and Bayesian methods offer alternative approaches to data analysis and inference compared to traditionally used methods. Guidance is lacking on the...
We examine the degree to which field observers can meet the assumptions underlying line transect sampling to monitor populations of desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii). We present the results of 2 field trials using artificial tortoise models in 3 size classes. The trials were conducted on 2 occasions on an area south of Las Vegas, Nevada, where...
We describe an information-theoretic paradigm for analysis of ecological data, based on Kullback-Lei- bler information, that is an extension of likelihood theory and avoids the pitfalls of null hypothesis testing. Infor- mation-theoretic approaches emphasise a deliberate focus on the a priori science in developing a set of multiple working hypothes...
Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. The JSTOR Archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long-term preservation and access to leading academic journals and scholarly literature from around the world. The Archive is supported...
A controversy exists in the Pacific Northwest of the United States between logging of old-growth coniferous forests and conservation of Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) populations. This species has a strong association with old-growth forests that also have economic value as timber. Research questions relevant to conservation of t...
This paper presents a review and critique of statistical null hypothesis testing in ecological studies in general, and wildlife studies in particular, and describes an alternative. Our review of Ecology and the journal of Wildlife Management found the use of null hypothesis testing to be pervasive. The estimated number of P-values appearing within...
We provide background information to allow a heuristic understanding of two types of criteria used in selecting a model for making inferences from ringing data. The first type of criteria (e.g. AIC, AlCc QAICc and TIC) are estimates of (relative) Kullback-Leibler information or distance and attempt to select a good approximating model for inference...
Full reality cannot be included in a model; thus we seek a good model to approximate the effects or factors supported by the empirical data. The selection of an appropriate approximating model is critical to statistical inference from many types of empirical data. This chapter introduces concepts from information theory (see Guiasu 1977), which has...
This chapter gives results from some illustrative exploration of the performance of information-theoretic criteria for model-selection and methods to quantify precision when there is model-selection uncertainty. The methods given in Chapter 4 are illustrated and additional insights are provided based on simulation and real data. Section 5.2 utilize...
Information theory and log-likelihood models - a basis for model selection and inference practical use of the information theoretic approach model selection uncertainty with examples Monte Carlo insights and extended examples statistical theory.
The understanding of model-selection uncertainty requires that one consider the process that generates the sample data we observe. For a given field, laboratory, or computer simulation study, data are observed on some process or system. If a second, independent, data set could be observed on the same process or system under nearly identical conditi...
Model building and data analysis in the biological sciences somewhat presupposes that the person has some advanced education in the quantitative sciences, and statistics in particular. This requirement also implies that a person has substantial knowledge of statistical hypothesis-testing approaches. Such people, including ourselves over the past se...
This chapter contains theory and derivations relevant to Kullback-Leibler information-theory-based model selection. We have tried to make the other chapters of this book readable by a general audience, especially graduate students in various fields. Hence, we have reserved this chapter for the theoretical material we feel it is important to make av...
We evaluated the ability of the linked sex harvest strategy (LSHS) proposed by McCullough et al. (1990) to determine optimum harvest of cervid populations from harvest statistics alone. This strategy purports to optimize total harvest by adjusting female harvest in response to observed changes in male harvest, without knowing the population's size...
Studies of life history evolution in passerine birds often depend on examination of annual survival probability of adult birds. Most studies rely on return rates (proportion of marked individuals released in one year that are recaptured in the next year) to estimate annual survival probability. Yet, return rate includes both the probability of surv...
Analysis of capture-recapture data is critically dependent upon selection of a proper model for inference. Model selection is particularly important in the analysis of multiple, interrelated data sets. This paper evaluates information theoretic approaches to selection of a parsimonious model and compares them to the use of likelihood ratio tests us...
We present three empirical methods for risk assessment in field studies of free-ranging vertebrates. First, we advocate statistical inference concerning population recruitment or mortality in response to ecological hazards. Second, if inferences about both recruitment and mortality are available, one can use a Leslie- Lefkovitch matrix to estimate...
Closed capture-recapture (CR) estimators have been used extensively to estimate population size. Most closed CR approaches have been developed and evaluated for discrete-time models, but there has been little effort to evaluate their continuous-time counterparts. Continuous-time estimators — developed using maximum likelihood theory by Craig (1953)...
The objective of this paper is to introduce the logical basis of AIC-based model selection to persons analyzing capture-recapture data and to explore the key theorettical aspect of AIC based model selection, for open-model capture-recapture, needed for AIC to perform well in this context. Almost all previous work on AIC assumes a Gaussian model; th...
The understanding of the dynamics of animal populations and of related ecological and evolutionary issues frequently depends on a direct analysis of life history parameters. For instance, examination of trade-offs between reproduction and survival usually rely on individually marked animals, for which the exact time of death is most often unknown,...
Selection of an appropriate model as the basis for data analysis is critical for valid inference. Fundamental to this issue is the concept that the datawill only “support” limited inference. A model should have enough structure and parameters to account adequately for the significant variability in the data, otherwise bias in the estimators is like...
We assessed effectiveness of the point system by examining band-recovery data for the 1980's. States using the point system during 1980-87 changed to conventional bag limits in 1988 and 1989. This change provided a basis for contrasting the effect of the point system in redistributing harvest pressure toward male and away from female mallards (Anas...
We substantiate our contention that our multivariate analyses (Rexstad et al. 1988) mimic analyses found in the wildlife literature. We caution users of multivariate techniques that data collected in our discipline are unlikely to meet the restrictive assumptions of these techniques. Even if assumptions are met, we contend interpretation of the res...
We used underwater video in conjunction with the line transect method and a Fourier series estimator to make 13 independent estimates of the density of known populations of bricks lying on the bottom in shallows of Lake Huron. The pooled estimate of density (95.5 bricks per hectare) was close to the true density (89.8 per hectare), and there was no...
We analyzed a data set constructed from functionally unrelated, easily collected observations (e.g., meat, stock, and liquor prices) around Fort Collins, Colorado, using principal components analysis (PCA), canonical correlation analysis (CC), and discriminant function analysis (DFA). Each produced seemingly significant results and suggested strong...
Effectiveness of the point system was investigated by contrasting first-year recovery rates of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) during the pre-point system period (1960-69) and during a point system period (1972-84). Three components were examined to investigate effectiveness of the point system: decreasing recovery rates of females, increasing recove...
Annual survival rates (S) were estimated from band recovery, recapture, and neck-collar resighting data for adult trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) near Red Rock Lakes National Wildlife Refuge (RRLNWR), Montana. Analysis of banding and recovery data collected between 1949 and 1982 yielded an estimated S of 88%. Analysis of resightings of neck-col...
Reproductive tracts recovered from female Cervus elaphus nelsoni harvested during late season hunts of December 1980 and 1981 in N Utah were used to estimate dates of conception. These dates were distributed bimodally with the period between peak frequencies coinciding with the regular elk and mule deer Odocoileus hemionus hunting seasons of the pr...
Efficiency and relative bias of strip transect and line transect (Fourier series estimator) survey methods were compared. Comparisons involved the negative exponential and half-normal detection functions for expected sample sizes of 40, 60, and 100 and 3 levels of spatial aggregation. Efficiency and bias were computed as functions of strip transect...
A new density estimation technique using a trapping web and distance sampling theory was evaluated using Monte Carlo methods. A sophisticated computer algorithm simulated movement of small mammals according to four different home range utilization distributions. Trapping of small mammal populations was simulated with four spatial patterns, two popu...
The nested grid approach is theoretically sound but requires more data than are likely to be collected in practice. This approach represents only a small improvement over the naive approach.-P.J.Jarvis
We evaluated naive density estimates and density estimates corrected for “edge effect” using mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) for small mammal populations by Monte Carlo methods. Two densities, 25 and 100/ha, were generated in random or slightly clumped spatial patterns within a 4-ha area and populations had average capture probabilities of eithe...
This paper compares the strip and line transect sampling methods of estimating the density (number of objects per unit area) of biological populations. We assume the objects of interest (e.g., birds, mammals, nests, sign, etc.) do not move in response to the observer prior to detection. Methods dealing with ways to sue incomplete counts are emphasi...
It is now widely believed that a largely compensatory relationship exists between hunting mortality and other forms of mortality for Anas platyrhynchos. This paper employs a general probabilistic model formulated to include a parameter (representing a continuum between complete compensation (b=0) and total additivity (b=1). Maximum likelihood estim...
Band recovery data from over 410 000 adult Anas platyrhynchos banded in North America between 1950-1979 were analyzed to examine the effect of exploitation on annual survival rate. Two extreme hypotheses were defined: completely compensatory, and totally additive, and an explicit mathematical model was presented to represent each hypothesis. Compar...
Distance sampling methodology is adapted to enable animal density (number per unit of area) to be estimated from capture-recapture and removal data. A trapping web design provides the link between capture data and distance sampling theory. It is possible to check qualitatively the critical assumption on which the web design and the estimator are ba...
The problem of estimating animal abundance is common in wildlife management and environmental impact asessment. Capture-recapture and removal methods are often used to estimate population size. Statistical Inference From Capture Data On Closed Animal Populations, a monograph by Otis et al. (1978), provides a comprehensive synthesis of much of the w...
This monograph is out of print and not available. Much of the material is covered in the books on Distance Sampling. One of the early versions is available at
http://www.colostate.edu/depts/coopunit/download.html
or
http://www.ruwpa.st-and.ac.uk/distance.book/download.html
For the past 25 years estimation of mortality rates for waterfowl has been based almost entirely on the composite dynamic life table. We examined the specific assumptions for this method and derived a valid goodness of fit test. We performed this test on 45 data sets representing a cross section of banded samples for various waterfowl species, geog...
Practical field procedures for conducting line transect surveys to estimate the size or density of biological populations are presented and discussed. Assumptions required for valid line transect surveys are specified. We emphasize that it is crucial to conduct observations along straight transects and obtain accurate measurements of distances and...
Redhead duck (Aythya americana) nesting and habitat change was studied in Knudson Marsh, Utah, in 1974 and 1975, and compared with earlier studies from 1950 and 1955 on the same marsh. Water conditions in 1975 were found to be similar to those in 1950, both years of favorable habitat, yet there was a decline in numbers of redheads from 500 pairs in...
Citations
... On the other hand, as we hypothesized, moving territory as well as the distance moved are mainly associated with the loss of the partner in the previous year. This finding is in line with the idea that species with lasting pair bonding and marked territorial behavior are reluctant to shift to another breeding territory unless a mate dies (Blakesley et al. 2006;Seamans and Gutiérrez 2007;Jenkins et al. 2019). In tawny owls, both sexes are territorial all year round and involved in territory defense (Appleby et al. 1999;Sunde 2011). ...
... The knowledge of the Mexican avian diversity is incomplete due to the absence of detailed studies and inventories in regions such as the mountainous systems of central Mexico. These surveys represent a simple and effective measure to estimate the diversity and perform as a basis for ecological research, as well as to determine priority areas for biological conservation (Rosenstock et al. 2002;Watson 2003). In this survey, we set the following objectives: (1) calculate the gradient diversity values (Hill's numbers) and compare between seasons, (2) determine if there is a gradual species turnover across the gradient and between seasons, and (3) determine the relationship of richness with elevation between seasons. ...
... The standard confidence interval could unrealistically set the lower bound to zero. Therefore, we followed Burnham et al., (1987) using a log-normalized confidence interval, such that the lower limit is given by L = /r, and the upper limit by U = r. ...
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... For model selection, we used the value of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), considering models with AIC at least 2 units lesser than the null model (i.e., that containing only random effects) as valid competing models. Afterwards, we chose among them based on ΔAIC > 2 ( Burnham and Anderson, 2002) and, when equivalent on this criterion, selecting the most parsimonious. Here we present results only for the selected best-model but all competing significant models (those better than the null model that consists of random effects only) may be found in Supplementary Material (Table S1-S6). ...
... Epistemic uncertainties are sources of imprecision that affect GA assessment and hamper the development of new and suitable model designs for GA growth. 11,13,14 The presence of these uncertainties, if sufficient in magnitude, can affect the quality of the information collected from experiments, leading to variability in results, lack of reproducibility, and lower prediction accuracy. Epistemic uncertainties relevant to GA progression were identified in the assessment process, such as measurement error, subjective judgment, model input uncertainty, and model structure uncertainty. ...
... The AIC includes a penalty for over-fitting the model, not allowing for an increase in the statistical bias when more parameters are fitted (Wilson et al. 2013). Another advantage of the AIC in model selection is that AIC is independent of the order in which models are computed (Anderson et al. 2001). ...
... There is a probability that this behavior is tied to the quantity of data available, but we do not have much influence over that because we used all we had. Trying to circumvent this troubling situation, we estimated each model's quality compared to other models using the AIC and BIC information criteria [76][77][78]. These criteria measure the quality of a statistical model, considering the amount of information lost and its simplicity. ...
... Akaike [52] proposed an indicator for a model's quality by measuring its goodnessof-fit by estimating Kullback-Leibler divergence using the maximum likelihood principle. The Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) is proposed as follows [53]. ...
... We separated our data into treatment and control groups and modeled them separately due to sample size constraints with multiple interactions. For each treatment and control group we used an a-priori modeling approach (Burnham and Anderson, 2002) and evaluated four models: a full model with all covariates (n = 9), a water-only model that focused on distance to active and inactive water sources, a model that excluded all water-related variables, and a model that excluded vegetation (Table 2). We chose these models to evaluate if habitat selection was a mixture of multiple factors (full), if it was driven solely by water (water-only), if water was extraneous (water exclusion), and if vegetation was extraneous (vegetation exclusion). ...
... R 2 and RSE) and that of predictor power (AICc, ∆AICc, and AICcWt) and potential differences that occurred between the two methods [21]. Burnham and Anderson [18] demonstrated the benefits of using AIC as a one-dimensional method of model selection with a standard set of criteria and the need to optimize the use of biologically relevant predictor variables. Furthermore, the typical use of multiple regressions with many parameters should be considered the global model (the "inclusive" model) and not necessarily the optimal model, while more simplistic models may demonstrate greater biological relevance. ...
