David D. Clarke’s research while affiliated with University of Nottingham and other places

The utilisation of emergency calls to stage false and misleading narratives can assist offenders in concealing their criminal activity. The majority of emergency call analyses focus on detecting deception; however, investigating the complex temporal ordering of verbal indicators with a measure of proximity may offer new inductive investigative insights. The current research took a novel approach to analysing emergency calls by focusing on the temporal placement of verbal indicators with a measure of proximity coefficients. Results showed that several important differences existed in the temporal ordering of indicators that occur at the start and end of staged and authentic calls. These findings offer an insight as to influence of saliency and the competing priorities that exist between staged and authentic emergency calls. This is the first research to explore the temporal ordering of indicators in emergency calls and to provide a basis for its tentative application to interview strategies.

Purpose Emergency service dispatchers perform a vital role in assisting callers by helping them through the emergency they are in and ensuring the delivery of first responders. If an emergency caller prematurely hangs up a call, before the arrival of first responders, it can impact a dispatcher’s ability to provide them with assistance. This paper aims to understand why staged callers, who are attempting to cover up a crime, and authentic callers hang up by identifying which linguistic and behavioural indicators occur prior to the end of a call. Design/methodology/approach A sample of 40 emergency calls (20 staged; 20 authentic) related to health and welfare emergencies were analysed with a temporal measure known as indicator waves. This provided a means to identify which indicators occurred above the level expected by chance near the end of authentic and staged calls. Findings The results of the current study show that the indicators that proceeded hanging up in authentic calls reflected the nature of the situation (e.g. nonurgency wherein the victim is deceased or is in a stable condition). Whereas the indicators that proceeded hanging up in staged calls focused on the “staging” aspect of the incident by accounting for forensic evidence that could be incriminating. Originality/value The identification of indicators that occur before the end of staged and authentic calls provides further insight into the differences between the two call types and offers opportunities for further research, potentially leading to application.

Correctly identifying when an individual is lying based on their nonverbal communication has been a central aim of researchers and practitioners. Traditionally, research has focused on individual ‘tells’ or indicators of deception. More recently, researchers have focused on clusters and sequences of nonverbal gestures; however, these methods can lead to complex outputs that are difficult to interpret. The current research uses a newly developed temporal method, Indicator Waves, to analyse the concurrent and sequential nonverbal communication of individuals caught verbally lying on tape. The analyses show the complexity of nonverbal behaviours in simplified wave diagrams and the importance of using linguistics to code nonverbal deceptive behaviours accurately. Statements made by individuals were analysed using Statement Analysis and nonverbal gestures related to lips, head, eyes and upper body were shown to change between deceptive and truthful individuals, both in the lead-up to lying and post-lying. This research is the first to use Indicator Waves in deception detection and provides a new simplified approach for understanding complex patterns of nonverbal communication in lying.

Purpose Behaviours occur across complex, dynamic timelines. Research methods to analyse these complex timelines have repeatedly used behaviour sequence analysis (BSA) as a primary method. Traditional BSA outputs, however, are limited in that they do not show how prevalent a behaviour sequence is throughout a sample or group. Until now, how many people in a sample showed the sequence was not analysed and reported. This paper aims to provide a new metric to calculate prevalence scores in BSA data sets. Design/methodology/approach Open access recorded responses including nonverbal communication of deceptive and truthful individuals were analysed initially with a standard BSA approach and then the prevalence scores of transitions were calculated. Findings Prevalence scores offered new insights into the distribution of sequences across groups. The prevalence score showed differences in which transitions were seen across the truthful and guilty samples. This offers new approaches to analysing nonverbal communication. Originality/value This is the first paper to provide a prevalence score for BSA research and show how it can be used in applied research. The current prevalence score metric is provided and suggested for all future research into sequences.

Background Self-harm is complex, multifaceted, and dynamic, typically starts in adolescence, and is prevalent in young people. A novel research tool (the Card Sort Task for Self-harm; CaTS) offers a systematic approach to understanding this complexity by charting the dynamic interplay between multidimensional factors in the build-up to self-harm. Sequential analysis of CaTS has revealed differences in key factors between the first and the most recent episode of self-harm in adolescence. Rates of self-harm typically decline post-adolescence, but self-harm can continue into adulthood. A comparison between factors linked to self-harm in young people vs. adults will inform an understanding of how risk unfolds over time and clarify age-specific points for intervention. A pilot online adaptation (CaTS-online) and a new method (Indicator Wave Analysis; IWA) were used to assess key factors in the build-up to self-harm. Methods Community-based young people (n = 66; 18–25 years, M = 21.4; SD = 1.8) and adults (n = 43; 26–57 years, M = 35; SD = 8.8) completed CaTS-online, documenting thoughts, feelings, events, and behaviours over a 6-month timeline for the first ever and most recent self-harm. A notable interdependence between factors and time points was identified using IWA. Results Positive emotion at and immediately after self-harm exceeded the threshold for both groups for both episodes. Feeling better following self-harm was more pronounced for the first-ever episodes. Impulsivity was an important immediate antecedent to self-harm for both groups at both episodes but most markedly for young people. Acquired capability was notable for adults’ most recent episodes, suggesting this develops over time. Burdensomeness was only more notable for adults and occurred 1 week prior to a recent episode. Both groups revealed patterns of accessing support that were helpful and unhelpful. Conclusion Commonalities and differences in the temporal organisation of factors leading to and following self-harm were identified in young people and adult pathways which shed light on age-specific factors and possible points of intervention. This has implications for clinical support and services around approaches to positive feelings after self-harm (especially for first-ever self-harm), feeling of burdensomeness, impulsivity, and acquired capability leading up to self-harm. Support is provided for card-sort approaches that enable the investigation of the complex and dynamic nature of pathways to self-harm.

The majority of geographical profiling research focuses on the relationship between offender and location, which works particularly well when a burial site is known. In real-world investigations, however, burial or dump sites are often not known. The aim of the current paper is to outline a relatively under-used method of geographic profiling: Winthropping. While the method has been around for several decades, few studies have provided any research findings using it. There are two likely reasons for Winthropping being under-used: first, it has not been clearly, theoretically explained; second, given its relative novelty, it may not be immediately clear how to use it in research and real-world scenarios. The current paper outlines several key psychological (e.g., satisficing and affordances) and criminological (e.g., rational choice theory and crime geometry) theories that may explain why Winthropping works. Case studies are provided, and a methodological approach (matrix forecasting) is then provided to show how it could work in research practice and real-world applications. Overall, Winthropping is deemed to be highly useful, and it is hoped that experts in the field will begin developing this tool for wider, applied use.

Crime is a complex phenomenon. To understand the commission of crime researchers must map both the temporal and the spatial processes involved. The current research combines a temporal method of analysis, Behaviour Sequence Analysis, with geospatial mapping, to outline a new method of integrating temporal and spatial movements of criminals. To show how the new method can be applied, a burglary scenario was used, and the movements and behaviours of a criminal tracked around the property. Results showed that combining temporal and spatial analyses allows for a clearer account of the process of a crime scene. The current method has application to a large range of other crimes and terrorist movements, for instance between cities and movements within each city. Therefore, the current research provides the foundation framework for a novel method of spatiotemporal analyses of crime.

Purpose While behaviour sequence analysis (BSA) is popular, it is not without limitations, namely, the level of detail required and time taken to run analyses; therefore, this paper aims to outline a novel method, using 30 serial homicide cases as a worked example. Design/methodology/approach Temporal analysis methods are becoming increasingly popular in applied forensic and criminological research. In recent years, BSA has become a widely used approach. Findings Waypoint sequencing provides a streamlined version of the traditional BSA approach, allowing for fewer behaviours to be included and providing a clearer overview of the main behaviours of interest. Practical implications Waypoint sequencing is shown in the current paper through serial killer research to show how to conduct the analyses and how it is effective in current investigations by expediting the process and allowing quicker analysis to facilitate current investigations. Originality/value The current research provides a novel approach to sequence analysis that is more useful in applied settings as it requires fewer behaviours or events than traditional BSA.

Every year, more children and youths are sent to Secure Children’s Homes while moving through the criminal justice system. Aggressive and violent incidents in these settings are common, and staff are often required to intervene and restrain violent individuals. The research literature has many examples of aggression and violence questionnaires and measures; however, for staff in communal areas it is the observable behaviors that they react to most. The current research, therefore, analyzed observable behaviors leading-up to violent episodes, and used Behavior Sequence Analysis to highlight the typical chains of behaviors that tend toward violence. The outcomes of this research show pathways to violence that staff can use to highlight potential spirals of aggression and violence. The current results show the links between non-confrontational behaviors (e.g., talking) through to more confrontational (staring, approaching, and pushing others). Overall, the research forms the foundation for future investigation into these and similar settings and outlines a novel approach to understanding violence escalation in a way that can be interpreted and used by service staff.

Despite the success of plastic bag charges in the UK, there are still around a billion single-use plastic bags bought each year in England alone, and the government have made plans to increase the levy from 5 to 10 pence. Previous research has identified motivations for bringing personal bags to a supermarket, but little is known about the individuals who are continuing to frequently purchase single-use plastic bags after the levy. In this study, over a million loyalty card transaction records from a high-street health and beauty retailer were harnessed to study 12,968 individuals’ bag buying behaviour (analysed using descriptive statistics). Statistical regional differences in plastic bag buying throughout the UK were found. From the transaction data 2,326 frequent single-use plastic bag buyers were then identified and matched randomly to infrequent buyers, creating a balanced sub-sample which was used for predictive modelling (N = 4,652). For each individual in the modelling sample, their transaction data was matched to questionnaire responses measuring demographics, shopping motivations, and individual differences. Using this data, an exploratory machine learning approach was utilised to investigate the demographic and psychological predictors of frequent plastic bag consumption. It was found that frequent bag buyers spent more money in store, were younger, more likely to be male, less frugal, open to new experiences, and more displeased with their appearance. Interestingly, environmental concerns did not predict plastic bag consumption, highlighting the disconnect between predicting pro-environmental attitudes and real world environmental behaviour.