D.R. Towill’s research while affiliated with Cardiff University and other places

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Publications (202)


Supply Chain Theory and Cultural Diversity
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June 2017

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573 Reads

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1 Citation

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A. Potter

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DR Towill

By far the biggest proportion of supply chain theory is bound up within North American and European business settings; hence, its generalizability to culturally diverse global supply chains are investigated. This exploratory research utilizes the anthropological approach of observing supply chain manager behaviour in five distinct natural settings (Egypt, New Zealand, Japan, Thailand, and the United Kingdom). Hofstede’s well-known measures of work-related culture are used to explain the observed manager behaviours. The supply chain theory needs to be tailored to take account of culturally diverse settings, as the optimal local supply chain architecture requires consideration of national, organizational, and individual cultural norms. Similarly, change roadmap and management should also be matched to the local cultural environment. A limited number of national settings and cases in each setting is investigated. Hence, a significant scope exists for further exploratory research into the implications of cultural diversity for global supply chain management. The behaviour of supply chain managers in a range of national settings appears to be closely correlated with the national culture value set. Such cultural drivers of manager behaviour offer pointers to the successful design and implementation of high performing international supply chains.

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Defining and Categorizing Modules in Building Projects: An International Perspective

May 2016

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437 Reads

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81 Citations

Journal of Construction Engineering and Management

Modularization involves breaking up a system into discrete chunks, which communicate with each other through standardized interfaces, rules, and specifications. It is a broad concept with various interpretations and meanings across research disciplines. The complexity and scope of a module is not captured sufficiently and clearly in the construction management and engineering literature, and the impact of modularization across project phases has not been fully explored and articulated. Therefore, the main question addressed in this paper relates to the inherent meaning of what is a module in the context of different phases of a building project. In addressing this question, this paper empirically investigates the use of modularity in 15 construction projects situated in Italy, Germany, Brazil, and the United Kingdom. The findings of this research suggest that a design-based and an operations-based perspective of modularity coexist, and that there is the need for an integrated view of modularity across the project lifecycle phases and for collaborative working between designers and site operators. To this aim, a unifying definition of a module in building projects is proposed along with a practical guide to help managers organize project activities for effective modularization. The actual cost analysis of the various modularization strategies provides an interesting avenue for future research. The template proposed also requires wider testing with a wider range of modules.


A comparative study of manufacturing and service sector supply chain integration via the uncertainty circle model

May 2016

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932 Reads

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43 Citations

The International Journal of Logistics Management

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the differences and similarities between the manufacturing and services sectors in order to develop a methodology that can provide the opportunity for the transfer of best practice between the two sectors. This paper aims to describe an audit methodology capable of yielding objective comparisons of supply chain integration performance that can assist practitioners and academics to transfer learned solutions. Design/methodology/approach – A robust, site-based, multi-method supply chain diagnostic for detecting manufacturing supply chain system uncertainty was amended for the service sector in order to yield objective comparisons of the (normalised) supply chain integration performances of 119 organisations. Findings – The research confirms the value of using a lens enabled by the uncertainty circle model (UCM) for generating meaningful comparative supply chain performances. The research found that services do not always exhibit unique attributes which effectively bar manufacturing-based supply chain best practice from being adopted within the service sector. Originality/value – Combining the UCM and Quick Scan Audit Methodology approach has the potential to assist the spread of proven good practice across both sectors. The framework provides realistic and repeatable performance vectors, capable of aligning estimates of value stream health status even when comparing supply chains with differing objectives, configurations, and performance goals.


Figure 2 Input-output diagram showing Forrester and Burbidge sources of demand amplification
Figure 3 Illustration of EBQ and EOQ sources of amplification
Figure 4 Variability along a supply chain for steel automotive components
Bullwhip diagnosis and reduction

November 2015

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863 Reads


Figure 1. Systems theory exploitation in the healthcare arena 
Figure 2. Supply chain uncertainty circle model (UCM) 
Figure 7. Prism model for seamless healthcare supplies delivery 
Figure 4 of 4
Causes, effects and mitigation of unreliable healthcare supplies

November 2015

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2,837 Reads

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14 Citations

This study investigates the means by which hospitals can improve the reliability of their medical supply value streams. Field research involving pharmacy supplies in eight Australasian public sector hospitals utilised a rigorous, multi-method data collection procedure based around the uncertainty circle model. Value stream maturity, performance inhibitors and pathways to effective improvement are explored. The high levels of value stream uncertainty detected are commonly the result of process immaturity and poor inter-functional integration. Chief among the common root causes is failure by the executive to acknowledge the strategic value of medical supplies management, which ultimately leads to higher materials cost and increased risk of a medical mishap. The study demonstrates how managers can use systems thinking and a context-free performance benchmark to identify effective interventions and potentially transferable best practices.


The value of nonlinear control theory in investigating the underlying dynamics and resilience of a grocery supply chain

September 2015

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122 Reads

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93 Citations

In an empirical context, a method to use nonlinear control theory in the dynamic analysis of supply chain resilience is developed and tested. The method utilises block diagram development, transfer function formulation, describing function representation of nonlinearities and simulation. Using both ‘shock’ or step response and ‘filter’ or frequency response lenses, a system dynamics model is created to analyse the resilience performance of a distribution centre replenishment system at a large grocery retailer. Potential risks for the retailer’s resilience performance include the possibility of a mismatch between supply and demand, as well as serving the store inefficiently and causing on-shelf stock-outs. Thus, resilience is determined by investigating the dynamic behaviour of stock and shipment responses. The method allows insights into the nonlinear system control structures that would not be evident using simulation alone, including a better understanding of the influence of control parameters on dynamic behaviour, the identification of inventory offsets potentially leading to ‘drift’, the impact of nonlinearities on supply chain performance and the minimisation of simulation experiments.


Supplier development initiatives and their impact on the consistency of project performance

May 2015

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744 Reads

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45 Citations

Many empirical studies exploring the impact of supply chain management on performance metrics have been undertaken in the manufacturing and retail sectors, espousing the positive outcomes attainable. Owing to a range of industry characteristics, some have questioned the effectiveness of such initiatives in the construction sector, and it has been noted that there is a lack of longitudinal empirical data in this setting. Exploiting a unique performance dataset gathered from a global construction company’s archival records (1990-2013), the following question is addressed: ‘what is the impact of supplier development initiatives on key performance indicators (KPIs) in a construction supply chain?’. Mobilizing established frameworks on relationship types and supplier development initiatives, suppliers are organized into relational categories, including ‘strategic partners’, ‘preferred’ and ‘approved’ suppliers. A combination of descriptive statistics, ANOVA and Levene’s tests was used to analyse the data. The findings report a significant difference between the volatility of performance between different groups. The higher the level of partnership in the relational category, the more consistency there will be in performance. Suppliers in the approved category perform less well on the ‘closeout’ KPI, suggesting a need for initiatives with this category to help raise performance on closeout issues.


Systems engineering effective supply chain innovations

November 2014

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83 Reads

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23 Citations

When seeking to adopt innovative supply chain (SC) best practices from apparently better-performing organisations during re-engineering, it is important to acknowledge that context also impacts performance. Hence, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the SC uncertainty circle model for its potential to yield direct performance comparisons even when the benchmarked organisations are located in different business sectors and economic settings. Using a rigorous well-established audit methodology, longitudinal field research with an engineer-to-order SC company demonstrates how highly effective, potentially transferable best practices can be reliably identified when systems thinking is allied to a context-free uncertainty metric, and how reducing product delivery process uncertainty can itself increase innovation capability.


Figure 1. Systems theory exploitation in the healthcare arena 
Figure 2. Supply chain uncertainty circle model (UCM) 
Figure 7. Prism model for seamless healthcare supplies delivery 
Figure 4 of 4
Squaring the circle of healthcare supplies

May 2014

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801 Reads

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33 Citations

Journal of Health Organization and Management

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to use a systems lens to assess the comparative performance of healthcare supply chains and provide guidance for their improvement. Design/methodology/approach: A well-established and rigorous multi-method audit methodology, based on the uncertainty circle model, yields an objective assessment of value stream performance in eight Australasian public sector hospitals. Cause-effect analysis identifies the major barriers to achieving smooth, seamless flows. Potentially high-leverage remedial actions identified using systems thinking are examined with the aid of an exemplar case. Findings: The majority of the healthcare value streams studied are underperforming compared with those in the European automotive industry. Every public hospital appears to be caught in the grip of vicious circles of system uncertainty, in large part being caused by problems of their own making. The single exception is making good progress towards seamless functional integration, which has been achieved by elevating supply chain management to a core competence; having a clearly articulated supply chain vision; adopting a systems approach; and, managing supplies with accurate information. Research limitations/implications: The small number of cases limits the generalisability of the findings at this time. Practical implications: Hospital supply chain managers endeavouring to achieve smooth and seamless supply flows should attempt to elevate the status of supplies management within their organisation to that of a core competence, and should use accurate information to manage their value streams holistically as a set of interwoven processes. A four-level prism model is proposed as a useful framework for thus improving healthcare supply delivery systems. Originality/value: Material flow concepts originally developed to provide objective assessments of value stream performance in commercial settings are adapted for use in a healthcare setting. The ability to identify exemplar organisations via a context-free uncertainty measure, and to use systems thinking to identify high-leverage solutions, supports the transfer of appropriate best practices even between organisations in dissimilar business and economic settings.


The impact of supplier development initiatives on key performance indicators

January 2014

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100 Reads

It is frequently posited that supplier development and long term partnerships are an effective way of gaining a competitive edge. However, due to the lack of regularity in demand patterns in project based industries, some researchers have questioned the effectiveness of such initiatives. Exploiting a unique and interesting longitudinal dataset gathered from a global construction company's archival records, the aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of supplier development initiatives on Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Supplier KPIs, recorded on a database, are analysed for a range of suppliers from the 1990s to 2013. Suppliers are organised into relational categories for the analysis, including 'long term strategic partners', 'some partnerships arrangements' and 'little partnership arrangements'. The highest performing group was the long term strategic partners, in both average performance scores and the consistency of those scores. We also conclude that suppliers with limited partnering arrangements perform less well on the project 'close out' KPI.


Citations (89)


... In a move to further improve on the FORRIDGE Principles, bullwhip has become a topic for concurrent formal study. They opined that this has brought together a number of previously separated strands of research as demonstrated in Dejonckheere et al. (2002) The exponential smoothing techniques are regarded to be among the most successful forecasting methods. The method can be modified efficiently and used effectively for time series with seasonal pattern. ...

Reference:

Information distortion in supply chain: A simulation approach to quantifying the bullwhip effect
Transfer function analysis of forecasting inducted Bullwhip in supply chains

... The "uncertainty circle model" has been utilized to determine a "beaten path" [15] that companies follow in order to attain the vision of the seamless, integrated supply chain which does not suffer from the symptoms of high stock holding, poor customer service levels and excessive bullwhip. The stages of the beaten path are; 4. in parallel with the above three stages continuously re-engineer and/or improve the logistics control systems ...

"The Uncertainty Circle as a Value Stream Audit Tool: A Case Study to Identify the BPR Requirements of the European Automotive Sector"

... There is a general interest in the future assessment of the key trade-off between the cyclical order behaviour of the bullwhip effect and the supply variation caused by backlash effects. Inventory is used to provide a service to the customer, i.e. to give an immediate source of supply, and to buffer the production from demand variations (Disney and Towill 2002a;Naim, Disney, and Evans 2002;Kaipia, Korhonen, and Hartiala 2006;Lin, Jiang, and Wang 2014). Inventories have a stabilising effect as they act as a buffer to absorb demand variability (Baganha and Cohen 1998). ...

A robust and stable analytical solution to the production and inventory control problem via a z-transform approach

... Our analysis also demonstrated the impact of phantom ordering on the bullwhip effect observed from retailer to manufacturing echelons. In scenarios of demand fluctuations, phantom ordering is one of the key reasons for the bullwhip effect, which is initially adopted as a countermeasure at the retailer echelons (Geary et al. 2003;Lee et al. 1997). Phantom ordering results in longer delivery times, which further increases the scarcity of resources, pressure to inflate orders further, and hence the lowering of resilience (Sterman and Dogan 2015). ...

Bullwhip in Supply Chains ~ Past, Present and Future

... A supply chain can be defined as the set of chains that includes the flow of goods and services from their raw material stage to the end consumers [1]. A supply chain network consists of various sectors that include Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), automotive, electronic, pharmaceutical and services [2]. One such area of the supply chain, which is being considered currently, is the Cold Supply Chain (CSC). ...

Supply Chain Theory and Cultural Diversity

... Also, the multi-product scenario can be somewhat different from aggregate statistics, requiring considerable care in subsequent analysis (Fransoo and Wouters, 2000). Certainly, there is some industrial evidence to support the view that schedulers may reasonably balance conflicting demands even if, as a consequence, the individual value stream volatility may be somewhat increased (Potter et al., 2005). Note that in these instances the bullwhip consequently increased, but within acceptably set bounds. ...

Determining when a little bullwhip may be helpful

... The proposed model uses forecast data F in (t) in addition to booked order data D in (t). 5 Following Disney and Towill, 4 we operate a delivery control policy but adjust the stock as the booked orderq in (t) changes and use demand forecast F in (t) to make production decision u i (t − θ p ). 5 At each location n (n ∈ N), we propose the following rule to do this: ...

A Linear Production and Inventory Control System that can Operate in a Non-Linear World

IFAC Proceedings Volumes

... This refers to the capability of an organization to transform customer orders into a production plan and raw material requirements by means of information flow and decisions. Companies need to monitor and control the various processes within the supply chain to be able to identify emerging problems and potential risks [14]. Control allows companies to respond to changes quickly and minimise uncertainties. ...

Uncertainty and the seamless supply chain
  • Citing Article
  • January 2002

... This team performance problem provides the prime motivation for testing the PCT model to see if this disparity can be explained. Naim et al. (2004) have indicated more research is needed into why the current mathematical models, mostly based on control theory, do not match actual supply chain management by humans as indicated in the Beer Game. We are proposing the use of the PCT model to provide the orders in the process in order to explain player behaviour in the Beer Game. ...

Supply Chain Dynamics

... The requirements of policies and the obstacles that emerge in practice undoubtedly pose certain challenges to the main policy implementers (developers). The performance of a PRB in terms of cost, efficiency, and quality, varies with the configuration of the building system (Gosling et al. 2016). Even for different building systems with the same assembly rate, their performances may vary owing to the different construction methods used for the building components or parts. ...

Defining and Categorizing Modules in Building Projects: An International Perspective
  • Citing Article
  • May 2016

Journal of Construction Engineering and Management