November 2024
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1 Read
Journal of Criminal Justice
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Publications (54)
May 2024
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37 Reads
January 2024
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224 Reads
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1 Citation
Journal of Criminal Justice
Purpose: This study addresses the complex task of determining the criminal intensity posed by serial killers in a murder series by introducing the Lambda (− rate of killings) to adjust for the time span in a murder series. It focuses on examining factors related to the offender and the crime-commission process that influence victim count in a series. Methods: Generalized estimating equations with a negative binomial and a gamma log link function were used to examine factors predicting victim count in a sample of 1258 serial murder cases. Results: Results showed that offender criminal history did not predict higher levels of Lambda when assessing victim count alone, but did predict a lower value when series length was accounted for. Killing methods were also significant predictors of a higher Lambda but were less useful when only number of victims was considered. Conclusions: Findings highlight the importance of the rate of killings along with total victim count for a more comprehensive understanding of the series' criminal intensity. This approach has implications for law enforcement and criminal profiling as it offers a more detailed perspective on the immediate threat posed by serial killers.
October 2023
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162 Reads
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2 Citations
Homicide Studies
The Golden State Killer hunted victims across California from 1974 to 1986. He committed violent crimes in multiple jurisdictions as he escalated from burglary to rape to serial murder. His offending evolution and shifting geography made it difficult for police to connect his crimes, leading to the assumption that different criminals were involved. Over time, therefore, nine separate behavioral profiles were generated for the various investigations. This case study is a comparative analysis of these profiles, their behavioral domains, and specific predictions. Accuracy, consistency, and utility are assessed, and an analytic framework is provided for future assessments and research.
January 2023
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10 Reads
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1 Citation
This article is a follow-up to a 2019 analysis that applied Bayesian probability techniques to the search for a missing hiker in Joshua Tree National Park. In February 2022, that hiker was found. Here, we compare the location of his remains with the results of our prediction model and discuss further implications for optimizing wilderness search and rescue. KEY WORDS: Wilderness Search and Rescue, Lost Persons, Bayesian Analysis, Resource Optimization
July 2022
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66 Reads
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3 Citations
The Professional Geographer
Geographic profiling is a criminal investigative technique that analyzes the locations of a crime series to determine the most probable area of offender residence. Police agencies employ the methodology for suspect prioritization and information management purposes in serial crime cases. Geoprofiles are probability maps generated by an algorithm that integrates distance decay functions originating from the point pattern of the connected crime sites. A more recent approach, known as empirical Bayes journey-to-crime estimation (or Bayesian geographic profiling), seeks to supplement these models with area-based historical offender and crime data. Spatial information from previous crime trips is used to calibrate analyses following the assumption that the unknown offender likely resides in the same neighborhood as past criminals who offended in the location of the new crime series. Inferring individual suspect rankings from historical area rankings, however, creates an ecological fallacy, and the greater the congruence between past offenders and future suspects, the more tautological the analysis. Although Bayesian models cannot be used to inform suspect prioritization—the main function of geographic profiling—the approach could have applicability for police strategies based on area prioritization. Surprisingly, this major limitation of the Bayes approach to geoprofiling has been ignored in the literature.
July 2022
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67 Reads
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5 Citations
Journal of Criminal Justice
Purpose Using perspectives from prospect theory and behavioral economics, we explore examples of offender decision-making that appear inconsistent with rational choice and expected utility theories. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 200 adult offenders with three or more convictions for predatory property or street crime (theft, burglary, and/or robbery). Subjects were asked to describe situations in which they had encountered crime prevention or control measures, and their relevant responses. Specific questions focused on how offenders assessed the effort, risk, and reward involved. Thematic analysis was employed to identify deviations from rational choice perspectives. Results Offenders, particularly abusers of drugs and/or alcohol, often held distorted perceptions of effort, risk, and reward. Cognitive biases and heuristics influenced logic and many offenders were guided by their intuition, even to the point of superstition. Some had dual motivations (“needs” and “wants”) that resulted in a nonlinear relationship between value and utility. Conclusions Rational choice and expected utility theories do not adequately explain offender decision-making, particularly when drug addiction is involved. Effective crime prevention and control strategies require a more comprehensive understanding of how offenders evaluate costs and benefits, and make situational offending decisions.
November 2021
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29 Reads
Criminal investigations are the gateway to the rest of the criminal justice system. However, the very point of a criminal investigation in a sexual assault can be questioned as most sex offenses are not reported to the police, perhaps a third are cleared, and only a fraction of these end up being prosecuted. Given these system limitations, how might investigations of sex crimes become more useful? Detectives could better enhance public safety if their objectives were not limited to case clearances. Three suggestions are discussed here: improving investigative thinking; identifying serial crimes; and developing situational prevention strategies.
November 2021
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25 Reads
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3 Citations
June 2021
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23 Reads
Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition
Citations (46)
... 1 Space limitations preclude comprehensive coverage of the nuances of research on various multiple homicide offender typologies, and the introduction is intended to broadly describe the various prototypes, the temporal elements therein, and consensus perspectives about the number of homicide victims required for each typology. I recognize the typologies are not mutually exclusive and there is discordant research pertaining to temporal features and victim thresholds (see, Adjorlolo & Chan, 2014;Chai et al., 2024;Morton, 2008;Reid, 2017;Vincent et al., 2022;Wright et al., 2009). ...
- Citing Article
January 2024
Journal of Criminal Justice
... The question that follows is how to further prioritise the search area to maximise the chances of success. According to Bayesian methods, the factors that must be considered here are the following: the prior distribution of information, the subjective probabilities of the occurrence of given events, and posterior distribution of data obtained from previous search efforts (Stone, 2011;Stone et al., 2014;Rossmo et al., 2019). ...
- Citing Article
November 2019
... This information is essential for the allocation of resources (searchers, dogs, drones, etc.). The standard tool for the calculation of the probability of an area (POA), as well as for adjusting these values during the search operation (depending on the outcome of the area search), is a Bayesian analysis [15,16]. Incident commanders often have to define probability maps using different sources of information, some of which may be incomplete or imperfect. ...
- Citing Article
January 2023
... In Russia, LEOs are more than 40 years behind Western organizations in the field of information and statistical support for serial murder investigations and have effectively failed to adopt criminal profiling (Denisov, 2023). In the US, however, it is understood that only a witness, a confession, or physical evidence can solve a crime while profiling cannot, despite its Hollywood image (Rossmo, 2023). In Germany, it is understood that rational shifts occur in modus operandi for the majority of serial murderers which limits the utility of such characteristics for linking cases (Harbort & Mokros, 2001). ...
- Citing Article
October 2023
Homicide Studies
... These are the evolved and learned cognitive shortcuts that allow humans to make decisions quickly, and in circumstances where they are unable to fully reason their way to a conclusion. This process is often glorified with terms such as "gut instinct" (Rossmo, 2008), though it also produces systematic errors in judgment (Kahneman et al., 2021), such as racism and sexism (Payne, Hannay, 2021). These cognitive biases were extremely beneficial in driving human survival during periods where the decision to quickly run away from a predator held frequent significance, but they are wholly inadequate for the task of running a government. ...
- Citing Chapter
February 2010
... They also include Bayesian approaches, which are born from Bayes' theorem, and stipulate that the probability of an event occurring (in this context, a crime), can be predicted based on a previous event (crime) having occurred in similar circumstances, enabling the production of the GP (Kent et al., 2006;Leitner & Kent, 2009;Levine & Block, 2011;Levine, 2015;O'Leary, 2010). However, such methods have been argued to have limitations, especially if used to help inform suspect prioritization (Rossmo, 2022). Emeno et al. (2016) have since identified that the distance decay strategy is used within many of the mathematical approaches (linear, lognormal, truncated negative exponential) that are presently used to calculate GPs. ...
- Citing Article
July 2022
The Professional Geographer
... Crime trips are of central interest in environmental criminology, particularly for crime pattern and routine activity theories. Travel possibilities influence offender decision-making, target choice, and spatial displacement (Rossmo & Summers, 2019, 2022. Crime scripts are informed by mobility, and findings from JTC research help focus criminal investigations (Beauregard et al., 2007; Rossmo, 2000). ...
- Citing Article
July 2022
Journal of Criminal Justice
... The most used distance for criminology (with events most frequently occurring in urban environment), is the Manhattan distance that takes into account the geometry of the streets network calculating a 90 degrees angle in the distance, while for investigating the pattern of distribution of an invasive species, the Euclidean distance is normally preferred. More recently even a distance taking into account the google maps routing system calculation has been proposed as a way to provide more exact models for travelling in urban areas (Stamato et al. 2021). As a matter of fact, the model of distribution of crimes or other events around the centre of origin, is approximated to a circular distribution that is a simplification of reality. ...
- Citing Conference Paper
November 2021
... The purpose of geographic profiling decision-support tools is not to identify the offender but to help sift through large numbers of suspects (Öhrn, 2019;Rossmo, 2000Rossmo, , 2021. The present study demonstrates the potential for the wide array of suspect activity node information recorded by police to be harnessed to support this suspect prioritisation task, and the benefit of differentiating between activity nodes. ...
- Citing Article
March 2021
Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology
... Unlike SCP, displacement theory has not undergone rigorous empirical testing, but the few studies that exist suggest mixed effects of displacement on crime prevention and desistance. While some studies indicate that displacement may not always occur in routine crime or may result in an overall net reduction (if, for example, only half of the prevented crimes are displaced) (Guerette & Bowers, 2009;McGarrell et al., 2001;Smith, 2001;Weisburd et al., 2006), other notable research suggests that routine offenders may selectively desist or displace depending on their relative assessments of risk, effort, and reward (Rossmo & Summers, 2021). Interviews with offenders revealed that offenders often engage in decision-making or troubleshooting upon encountering a situational control, during which they consider other options and, in some cases, attempt to displace their crimes (Rossmo & Summers, 2021). ...
- Citing Article
January 2021
Justice Quarterly