Cynthia Rosenzweig's research while affiliated with Space Studies Institute and other places
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Publications (377)
We present results from the FAOSTAT emissions shares database, covering emissions
from agri-food systems and their shares to total anthropogenic emissions for
196 countries and 40 territories for the period 1990–2019. We find that in
2019, global agri-food system emissions were 16.5 (95 %; CI range: 11–22)
billion metric tonnes (Gt CO2 eq. yr−1), c...
The surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect is among the major environmental issues encountered in urban regions. To better predict the dynamics of the SUHI and its impacts on extreme heat events, an accurate characterization of the surface energy balance in urban regions is needed. However, the ability to improve understanding of the surface energ...
This is earth analysis at global, regional and country level based on the new FAOSTAT Emissions shares database. Data cover all IPCC sectors and in particular quantify emissions from agri-food systems within the famr gate, due to land use change and along supply chains, domestic use and waste.
![Comparison of [CO2] and temperature changes between CMIP5 and CMIP6
a,...](profile/Jonas-Jaegermeyr/publication/355831041/figure/fig2/AS:1085566972108819@1635830743125/Comparison-of-CO2-and-temperature-changes-between-CMIP5-and-CMIP6-a-CO2-pathways-for_Q320.jpg)
Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated u...
Adaptation to climate change must be ramped up urgently. We propose three avenues to transform ambition to action: improve tracking of actions and progress, upscale investment especially in critical areas, and accelerate learning through practice. Adaptation to climate change must be ramped up urgently. This Comment proposes three avenues to transf...
In the coming decades, millions of urban residents will be exposed to increasingly deadly heat extremes. As an adaptive response to rising temperatures, many cities have begun to install vegetated ”green” roofs, which now vary widely in structure and size, and have generally been shown to have cooling capacity. Yet, little research has been done to...
Decision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change and accelerate transformation to sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multi-model approach has been developed and used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to generate actionable information for adaptation planning...
The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are complex existential threats, unpredictable in many ways and unprecedented in modern times. There are parallels between the scale and scope of their impacts and responses. Understanding shared drivers, coupled vulnerabilities, and criteria for effective responses will help societies worldwide prepare for...
New estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food system were developed at the country level, for the period 1990-2018, integrating data from crop and livestock production, on-farm energy use, land use and land use change, domestic food transport and food waste disposal. With these new country-level components in place, and by adding gl...
Improving estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from food production, supply, consumption, and disposal is fundamental to identifying effective policy solutions. Through broader awareness of the food-climate nexus, climate mitigation as well as resilience can be enhanced. However, work is needed to address knowledge gaps, promote better polic...
Integrating climate risk information into resilience-building activities in the field is important to ensure that adaptation is based on the best available science. Despite this, many challenges exist when developing, communicating, and incorporating climate risk information. There are limited resources on how stakeholders perceive risks, use risk...
Cities have become increasingly recognized as key sites for climate research and action. Recently, these efforts have been significantly advanced through science-policy-practice partnerships. The objective of this paper is to assess how these partnerships are structured, the research and action agenda that underpins them, and how this agenda is bei...
Confronting the challenges of a rapidly urbanizing world threatened by climate change requires expanding the traditional influence and capabilities of urban planning and urban design, integrating climate science, natural systems and compact urban form to configure dynamic, desirable and healthy communities. Cost-effective planning and design measur...
Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food...
Cities in the USA and around the world have begun to take an active role in responding to climate change. A central requirement for effective urban climate strategies is the capacity to understand and measure how the climate is changing, the physical, environmental, and social impacts of the changes, and whether adaptation and resiliency policies a...
Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern first surveyed in a harmonized multi-model effort in 2014. We report here on new 21st-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean, and rice compared to...
The U.S. federal system allows state and city governments to set policy and targets, design laws and standards, implement financial mechanisms to develop and support markets (e.g., green bonds), and enforce regulatory compliance. These are key levers through which decarbonization actions can be – and are already being – delivered, and through which...
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Repor...
Accelerating Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet ice mass losses and potential West Antarctic Ice Sheet instability may lead to higher than previously anticipated future sea levels. The New York City Panel on Climate Change Antarctic Rapid Ice Melt (ARIM) upper-end, low probability sea level rise (SLR) scenario, which incorporates recent ice loss tre...
In this study we use three different methodologies to document and compare temperature and precipitation projections for the city of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) over the 21st century. It aims to explore in what way the differences and similarities of those methodologies and their outcomes support the incorporation of climate risks in urban planning and imp...
Agriculture in South Africa sustains about 70% of the region’s population for food, income and employment, playing an important role for food security and the local economy. The focus of the study was the commercial maize farms of the Free State Province given their importance in the National economy. The Regional Integrated Assessment (phase I) wa...
A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food...
A food system framework breaks down entrenched sectoral categories and existing adaptation and mitigation silos, presenting novel ways of assessing and enabling integrated climate change solutions from production to consumption.
Table SM5.1 A gendered approach to understanding how climate change affects dimensions of food 3 security across pastoral and agro-pastoral livestock-holders (adapted from McKune et al. (2015); Ongoro 4 and Ogara (2012) and Fratkin et al. (2004). ↑increased, ↓decreased 5 Group Livelihoods Health Nutrition Pastoral ↑ time demand on women and girls f...
This is the food security chapter of the IPCC SRLCC. It provides a synthesis of impacts, adaptation and mitigation issues from the perspective of food systems.
This is the Summary for Policy Makers of the IPCC Special Report on Land and Climate Change, as approved by the IPCC member countries at the Plenary in Geneva, Aug 2-7 2019.
The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 dataset of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) provides an unprecedentedly large dataset of crop model simulations covering the global ice-free land surface. The dataset consists of annual data fields at a spatial resolution of 0.5 arc-degree longitude...
This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC3) chapter builds on the projections developed by the second New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2) (Horton et al., 2015). It confirms NPCC2 projections as those of record for the City of New York, presents new methodology related to climate extremes, and describes new methods
for developing th...
In a globalizing and rapidly-developing world, reliable, sustainable access to water and food are inextricably linked to each other and basic human rights. Achieving security and sustainability in both requires recognition of these linkages, as well as continued innovations in both science and policy. We present case studies of how Earth observatio...
This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Proj...
This study presents results of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions. This first CGRA application provides multi-discipline, multi-scale, and multi-model perspectives to elucidate major challenges fo...
Transformation is required for cities to fulfil their leadership potential on climate change. Five action pathways can guide them: integrate mitigation and adaptation; coordinate risk reduction and climate adaptation; cogenerate risk information; focus on disadvantaged populations; and improve governance and knowledge networks.
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effo...
Well-intended climate actions are confounding each other. Cities must take a strategic and integrated approach to lock into a climate-resilient and low-emission future.
Meeting the ambitions of the Paris Agreement will require rapid and massive decarbonization of cities, as well as adaptation. Capacity and requirement differs across cities, with challenges and opportunities for transformational action in both the Global North and South.
The processes and consequences of climate change are extremely heterogeneous, encompassing many different fields of study. Dr David Rind in his career at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and as a professor at Columbia University has had the opportunity to explore many of these subjects with colleagues from these diverse disciplines. It...
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended...
Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water demand from plants and water supply from irrigation systems. We coupled the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) to link regional water supplies and management with field-level water demand and crop...
Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988...
The purpose of this Special Issue of Agricultural Systems is to lay the foundation for the next generation of agricultural systems data, models and knowledge products. In the Introduction to this Special Issue, we described a vision for accelerating the rate of agricultural innovation and meeting the growing global need for food and fiber. In this...
The 837 km New York City shoreline is lined by significant economic assets and dense population vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding. After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, New York City developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate future climate risks, drawing upon the scientific expertise of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), a...
Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water...
Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded C...
The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge...
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended...
This paper presents ideas for a new generation of agricultural system models that could meet the needs of a growing community of end-users exemplified by a set of Use Cases. We envision new data, models and knowledge products that could accelerate the innovation process that is needed to achieve the goal of achieving sustainable local, regional and...
We review the current state of agricultural systems science, focusing in particular on the capabilities and limitations of agricultural systems models. We discuss the state of models relative to five different Use Cases spanning field, farm, landscape, regional, and global spatial scales and engaging questions in past, current, and future time peri...
