Craig Duncan’s research while affiliated with Office for National Statistics and other places

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Publications (23)


Area-based studies and the evaluation of multilevel influences on health outcomes
  • Article
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January 2005

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261 Reads

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28 Citations

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SV Subramanian

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Table 10 .1 Variables used in the analysis
Death and income: evaluating the absolute and relative income hypotheses in an exploratory analysis of the UK Health and Lifestyle Survey

January 2004

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2,984 Reads

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12 Citations

In studying the links between income and mortality we need to recognise two key hypotheses. In the absolute income hypothesis, the higher an individual income, the lower the risk of mortality. In the relative income hypothesis, the individual's health is additionally affected by the distribution of income within society so that living in a place with grossly unequal income distribution is anticipated to lead to a worse health experience (see Chapter 5 of this volume). This chapter attempts to review the evidence for the importance of both these hypotheses using data from the UK- representative Health and Lifestyle Survey employing both individual and ecological measures of income. ,,,,,,, . In conclusion, there appears to be evidence that mortality outcomes cannot be simply reduced to individual characteristics. There is an ecology of mortality that is related to the mean income of the local area. Mortality is related to poverty at both the household and area level. It seems to us that such results for mortality at least can support a materialist explanation without any specific need to develop explanations based on psychosocial processes, social cohesiveness or social capital.


Multilevel Methods for Public Health Research

May 2003

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2,083 Reads

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345 Citations

This chapter begins by outlining the conceptual motivation behind multilevel analyses and by identifying a core set of research questions that this approach addresses. It then introduces the idea of multilevel structures and discusses simple and complex multilevel models. It emphasizes that the key strength of multilevel models lies in modeling heterogeneity at different levels and shows how multilevel models can be extended to additional contextual levels (e.g., neighborhoods nested within regions). The estimation procedures underlying such models are discussed, showing how a multilevel framework can provide a general, unified approach to data analysis and how this can be achieved by extensions to the basic hierarchical structure of individuals nested within contexts. The chapter concludes with a discussion of issues that researchers should be aware of when applying multilevel methods.


Placing geographies of public health

April 2003

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104 Reads

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111 Citations

Area

Following the move to a ‘post–medical’ geography, a large amount of research has come to focus on public health issues. This paper explores these current geographies of public health and argues for the development of a more critical perspective. In particular, it draws on commentary that has emerged out of debates that have taken place within a body of literature usually identified as the critical ‘new’ public health. The paper goes on to argue that such scholarship offers crucial insights for the production of a critical geography of public health.


Themes in British health geography at the end of the century: A review of published research 1998-2000

August 2002

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133 Reads

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28 Citations

Social Science & Medicine

This paper provides a succinct overview of some recent trends in geography of health in Britain since 1998. We consider how the research we have reviewed illuminates the relationships between geographies of health and three fundamental processes which are widely recognized as being important for contemporary human geography as a whole: globalization, urbanization and polarization. We also consider the contribution of health geography to agendas in cultural geography agenda which we refer to here as 'geographies of imagination'. These perspectives all relate to dynamic and diverse processes operating in Britain and throughout the world. We explore how health geography is responding to change, and what the agenda for future research will be. By considering these themes, we also seek to show how the geography of health is contributing to a wider discourse, shared to some extent in human geography as a whole, and we discuss the themes which are likely to feature in the future health geography research agenda.


Multilevel Perspectives on Modeling Census Data

March 2001

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1,832 Reads

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98 Citations

Environment and Planning A

Since most census data are released for spatial aggregates, the microscale of people and the macroscale of places are confounded in analyses. Although regrettable, this situation is usually tolerated owing to the other obvious attractions of census data. In this paper, we consider how multilevel statistical procedures offer a solution to this problem. Importantly, we show how they allow places to be considered in terms of several different scales simultaneously. As we demonstrate, this provides important connections with recent moves towards performance review in several areas of public policy. An analysis of data on illiteracy from the 1991 Indian Census provides an illustration of multilevel approach and its usefulness.


London's burning: Recovering other geographies of health

January 2001

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35 Reads

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31 Citations

Health & Place

In the opening to this paper we concern ourselves with the concept of health as it is currently understood in the now reformulated 'geography of health'. We focus on countering the assumption that the desire for health is the main drive behind individual patterns of consumption. To this end, we turn to a more culturally informed analysis which identifies the importance of understanding the complex relations between the body, identity, consumption and risk. To illustrate our ideas and arguments, we draw on current anti-smoking debates, particularly those relating to passive smoking, and what we see as evidence of alternatives to such health-related or 'healthist' rhetoric: the rise of cigar smoking and cigar bars in London, England.


Consumed with worry: 'Unsafe' alcohol consumption and self-reported problem drinking in England

November 2000

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165 Reads

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13 Citations

Health Education Research

Using data from the 1994 Health Survey for England, logistic multivariate multilevel modelling techniques are used to investigate the simultaneous effect of individual demographic characteristics and socio-structural factors on self-reported problem drinking as revealed by CAGE scores and 'unsafe' levels of alcohol consumption. Whilst the influence of key socio-structural variables is broadly similar for both unsafe alcohol consumption and high CAGE scores, there are notable exceptions when results are examined by tenure group: those in the rented sector are more likely to be problem drinkers as revealed by CAGE, but less likely to consume 'unsafe' amounts of alcohol. Both dimensions of drinking behaviour are influenced by the consumption patterns of others in the household, with both likelihoods increasing as the average consumption of others in the household rises. After taking into account individual compositional variables, the research indicates that there is very little evidence for geographical variation remaining in these two dimensions of drinking behaviour. It is found that the proportion of the population whose drinking behaviour may be classed as (potentially) problematic via the CAGE responses is substantially less than the proportion consuming above recommended 'safe' levels. The research concludes, however, that the two measures are broadly similar in their relationship to social and structural variables. Tenure provides an exception to this conclusion and indicates a continuing need to take account of housing circumstances in developing an understanding of drinking behaviour.


TABLE 2 Results for the Complex Level-2 Variation Model
TABLE 3 Between-Ward Variability in Alcohol Consumption for the Different Social-Class Categories
TABLE 4 Results for the Model Including Complex Between-Individual Heterogeneity
TABLE 5 Results for the Model Including Higher-Level Variables
Using Multilevel Models to Model Heterogeneity: Potential and Pitfalls

October 2000

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891 Reads

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79 Citations

Geographical Analysis

Within the last few years, geographers and researchers in other cognate disciplines with geographic concerns have begun to use multilevel models. While there are several useful existing introductory accounts of these models in the geographical literature, this paper seeks to extend them in three main ways to clarify and emphasize further the substantial opportunities they afford. First, it focuses on how multilevel models are centrally concerned with modeling population heterogeneity as a function of predictor variables. Second, it considers and illustrates a number of specific interpretive issues that can arise when conducting multilevel analyses of place effects. Lastly, it traces some more general, conceptual issues surrounding the use of multilevel models in geographical research. The arguments made are illustrated through an analysis of variations in drinking behavior using data from a typically complex, large-scale survey; particular attention is given to the inclusion of categorical predictors.


Table 2 States with Significantly Low and High Illiteracy Levels
Table 3 Districts with Significantly High and Low Illiteracy
Table 4 Typology of Districts based on Illiteracy Levels and Age Inequalities
Table 5 States with Small and Large Caste and Tribe Differentials
Illiterate people''or''Illiterate places'': the Indian evidence

September 2000

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4,178 Reads

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6 Citations

This paper examines geographic variations in illiteracy in India, both at the district and state levels, based on 1991 Census data. Multilevel regression modelling techniques are applied in order to establish whether variations relate to the type of people in particular places (compositional effects) or to the characteristics of the places themselves (contextual effects). Results show significant differences between places, which cannot be accounted for solely by compositional effects. These differences are complex and contextual effects are found to be different for different types of people. The analysis provides substantial empirical evidence that policy interventions in the context of illiteracy need to take account of spatial complexity.


Citations (23)


... The former focuses on decomposing a single variable or measure as a function of itself, such as spatial variability (Oliver and Webster 1986;Collins and Woodcock 2000), moving window averages (Pigozzi 2004), the statistical likelihood (Kolaczyk and Huang 2001), diversity and dissimilarity indices (Wong 2003;Manley et al. 2019), or entropy (Phillips 2005;Batty 2010;Leibovici and Birkin 2015). In contrast, the latter focuses on decomposing a variable as a function of other variables (e.g., Duncan and Jones 2000). More recent work found in this review corpus extended these types of multilevel multiple regression models to examine contributions from different groups (i.e., categories) across scales (Manley et al. 2015), modeling spatially clustered survey data based on attributes of individuals, neighborhoods, wider regions, and heterogeneities across them (Ma et al. 2018), the development of hierarchical spatial autoregressive models to capture dependencies at each level (Dong and Harris 2015), and a locally adaptive extension (Dong et al. 2020). ...

Reference:

A scoping review on the multiplicity of scale in spatial analysis
Using Multilevel Models to Model Heterogeneity: Potential and Pitfalls

Geographical Analysis

... Nonetheless, clarity on the relationship between social class and health status on the level of the whole society remains a puzzle. Scholars like Rogers (1979), Kaplan et al. (1996), Kennedy et al. (1996), Kawachi (2000) and Shen et al. (2008) found support for the hypothesis while others such as Gerdtham and Johannesson (2001), Jones et al. (2004) and Beckfield (2004) do not find any relationship between class status and health outcomes. ...

Death and income: evaluating the absolute and relative income hypotheses in an exploratory analysis of the UK Health and Lifestyle Survey

... These dependent variables form level zero of the multilevel model, the pseudolevel. A multivariate approach has some advantages over separate analyses for each dependent variable (Duncan, Jones, & Moon, 1996; Snijders & Bosker, 1999). An important benefit of the multivariate model is that it is possible to investigate whether predictor variables have a similar or a different effect on the dependent variables by doing a significance test. ...

Blood pressure, age and gender

... Due to the clustered data structure and to account for technology-specific effects, a mixed effects model (multilevel model) for two levels of data was applied [29,30]. It is described in more detail in Additional file 1, Appendix 7. The aim of the regression function is to estimate whether the development of utilization follows the direction of study results, but not to explain the whole variance; this would not be possible by including only one explanatory variable, but most other potentially influencing factors [31] are difficult to quantify. ...

Modelling Context and Heterogeneity: Applying Multilevel Models

... First, the residential environmental satisfaction survey data may have been influenced by other predictors of residential satisfaction (Van Duijn and Rouwendal, 2012); for example, wealthier and more educated individuals have a greater preference for living near urban heritage sites (Koster et al., 2016). A further in-depth analysis that considers the socioeconomic and demographic traits of residents is necessary to avoid aggregation errors (Jones and Duncan, 1996). Second, a cross-sectional dataset from 2016 was employed, without a time-series analysis, because longitudinal data were not available. ...

People and places: The multilevel model as a general framework for the quantitative analysis of geographical data

... The fundamental premise in these frameworks is that there intrinsically exists one ideal unit of analysis and inference; be it individual or one particular geographic scale 4,5 . With the advent of multilevel modeling 3,6-8 , while there has been substantial efforts to simultaneously consider, especially the scales or units of individual and certain geographic aggregation 4,5,9 , efforts to consider multiple geographic units/scales has been limited 10,11 . ...

Illiterate people''or''Illiterate places'': the Indian evidence

... To examine the association between a hospital's Magnet status and HEI scores, we utilized multilevel modeling (MLM). Grounded in the socioecological model (National Institutes of Health Sexual and Gender Minority Research Office 2021), MLM is suitable for analyzing hierarchical data structures (Kreft, Kreft, and de Leeuw 1998;Subramanian, Jones, and Duncan 2003). Since our data include two levels (level-1 = hospital level, which encompasses Magnet status and hospital type; level-2 = state level, which includes LGBTQ+ inclusiveness in laws, political climate, racial/ethnic minority population, and Medicaid expansion status), we employed a two-level random intercept model to investigate the association of hospital and state-level factors on LGBTQ+ inclusivity in hospitals. ...

Multilevel Methods for Public Health Research

... Sarah Curtis (2004) thinks that the geography of health focuses on the ways that the health of populations is differentiated between places and the range of factors that explain these differences. Many recent works (Brown and Duncan, 2002;Gesler and Kearns, 2002) in the branch of health geography have suggested that a shift from medical geography to the geography of health is more than a change in title. It also represents an epistemological shift that questions the grounds upon which medical geographical knowledge is based. ...

Placing geographies of public health
  • Citing Article
  • April 2003

Area