Colin J. Whitfield’s research while affiliated with University of Saskatchewan and other places

Wetlands are active biogeochemical processing sites with conditions that promote carbon storage and the production and release of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Estimates of GHG release from wetlands, including small ponds, are still highly uncertain, and rarely consider diverse pathways of exchange, instead focussing primarily on diffusion. One way to resolve this uncertainty is to quantify and compare multiple pathways of GHG release and to consider specific wetland types. At four natural ponds in the Canadian Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), we investigated four flux pathways (diffusion, ebullition, exposed sediment, and vegetation-mediated) and found distinct differences between pathways for methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O). The highest magnitude effluxes were via exposed sediment for CO2 and N2O and ebullition for CH4, though ebullition was not the dominant CH4 efflux pathway in two ponds. For pathways with potential for high GHG efflux, we used generalized least squares (GLS) regression to investigate physicochemical predictors. We identified significant relationships between air temperature and exposed sediment fluxes of CO2 and N2O, and between sulphate and dissolved oxygen concentrations and diffusive CH4 fluxes. Water temperature may be linked to ebullitive CH4 fluxes, but this was not statistically significant. This research identifies hotspots and physicochemical predictors for GHG efflux in the first study to directly compare four key flux pathways for PPR ponds, highlighting that processes occurring in different parts of the wetland can greatly outweigh their areal extent. This analysis will inform future work to synthesize and upscale GHG fluxes for these ponds.

In the 465,000 km² Canadian Prairies ecozone, robust hydrological input data for hydraulic model applications are uncommon because of the sparse monitoring network and the intermittently connected stream network. New hydrological datasets can offer a valuable advancement for making water management decisions and designing infrastructure in this water stressed region. The Prairie Hydrology Design and Analysis Product (PHyDAP) was created to address existing limitations, and provides a comprehensive regional dataset for use in hydraulic modelling applications. PHyDAP is a collection of outputs from a physically based hydrological modelling framework, run for periods ranging from 38 to 150 years, according to three climate forcing datasets. The dataset includes vertical and lateral fluxes (rainfall, snowmelt, upland runoff, and open water evaporation) and basin streamflow, at hourly or 3-hourly intervals for the >4000 small basins of approximately 100 km² that span the region. This contribution describes the motivation for this work and methodology used to derive the data product, summarizes the data and its accessibility, and provides an overview of potential use cases.

Shallow ponds can provide ideal conditions for production of greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), and thus are important to include in global and regional GHG budgets. The Canadian Prairie Pothole Region contains millions of shallow natural ponds, and we investigated GHG dynamics in 145 ponds across the region. Ponds were consistently supersaturated with CH4, often supersaturated with CO2 (57% occurrence), and often undersaturated with N2O (65% occurrence). Spring measurements showed higher N2O saturation (p = 0.0037) than summer, while summer had higher CH4 (p < 0.001) and CO2 (p = 0.023) saturation than spring. Ponds exhibited large physicochemical variation, yet sulfate concentration and pH were strong predictors of dissolved CH4 and CO2, respectively. No predictor was identified for N2O. The link between sulfate and CH4 has important implications as dissolved CH4 in low sulfate (<178 mg L⁻¹) systems was much more responsive to changes in temperature. This research fills an important knowledge gap about the GHG dynamics of prairie pothole ponds and the role of water chemistry for diffuse GHG release. Our work can also be used in ongoing efforts to describe ecosystem services (or disservices) assigned to ponds in this agriculture-dominated region.

In many regions, a tradeoff exists between draining wetlands to support the expansion of agricultural land, and conserving wetlands to maintain their valuable ecosystem services. Decisions about wetland drainage are often made without identifying the impacts on the services these systems provide. We address this gap through a novel assessment of impacts on ecosystem services via wetland drainage in the Canadian prairie landscape. Draining pothole wetlands has large impacts, but sensitivity varies among the indicators considered. Loss of water storage increased the magnitude of median annual flows, but absolute increases with drainage were higher for larger, less frequent events. Total phosphorus exports increased in concert with streamflow. Our analysis suggested disproportionate riparian habitat losses with the first 30% of wetland area drained. Dabbling ducks and wetland-associated bird abundances respond strongly to the loss of small wetland ponds; abundances were predicted to decrease by half with the loss of only 20%–40% of wetland area. This approach to evaluating changes to key wetland ecosystem services in a large region where wetland drainage is ongoing can be used with an economic valuation of the drainage impacts, which should be weighed against the benefits associated with agricultural expansion.

Long-term dissolved organic carbon (DOC) trends have been observed across many regions of the Northern Hemisphere, yet the drivers of these trends are not universal. Elevated DOC concentrations are a major concern for drinking water treatment plants that draw from freshwaters, owing to effects on disinfection byproduct formation, risks of bacterial regrowth in water distribution systems, and increasing treatment costs. Using a unique 30-year data set encompassing both extreme wet and dry conditions in a eutrophic drinking water reservoir in the Great Plains of North America, we investigate the effects of changing source water and in-lake water chemistry on DOC. Using wavelet coherence analyses and generalized additive models of DOC, we find DOC concentration was significantly coherent with flow from a large upstream mesotrophic reservoir. DOC was also coherent with sulfate, total phosphorus, ammonium, and chlorophyll a concentrations across the 30-year record. These variables accounted for 56 % of the deviance in DOC from 1990 to 2019, suggesting that water source and in-lake nutrient and solute chemistry are effective predictors of DOC concentration. Clearly, climate and changes in water and catchment management will influence source water quality in this already water-scarce region. Our results highlight the importance of flow management to shallow eutrophic reservoirs. They also highlight a key challenge where wet periods can exacerbate water quality issues and these effects can be compounded by reducing inflows from systems with lower DOC. These flow management decisions address water level and flood risk concerns but have important impacts on drinking water treatability.

This study evaluated the effects of climate perturbations on snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow generation in small Canadian Prairies basins using a modelling approach based on classification of basin biophysical characteristics. Seven basin classes that encompass the entirety of the Prairies Ecozone in Canada were determined by cluster analysis of these characteristics. Individual semi-distributed virtual basin (VB) models representing these classes were parameterized in the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) platform, which includes modules for snowmelt and sublimation, soil freezing and thawing, actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture dynamics, groundwater recharge, and depressional storage dynamics including fill and spill runoff generation and variable connected areas. Precipitation (P) and temperature (T) perturbation scenarios covering the range of climate model predictions for the 21st century were used to evaluate climate sensitivity of hydrological processes in individual land cover and basin types across the Prairies Ecozone. Results indicated that snow accumulation in wetlands had a greater sensitivity to P and T than that in croplands and grasslands in all basin types. Wetland soil moisture was also more sensitive to T than the cropland and grassland soil moisture. Jointly influenced by land cover distribution and local climate, basin-average snow accumulation was more sensitive to T in the drier and grassland-characterized basins than in the wetter basins dominated by cropland, whilst basin-average soil moisture was most sensitive to T and P perturbations in basins typified by pothole depressions and broad river valleys. Annual streamflow had the greatest sensitivities to T and P in the dry and poorly connected Interior Grasslands (See Fig. 1) basins but the smallest in the wet and well-connected Southern Manitoba basins. The ability of P to compensate for warming-induced reductions in snow accumulation and streamflow was much higher in the wetter and cropland-dominated basins than in the drier and grassland-characterized basins, whilst decreases in cropland soil moisture induced by the maximum expected warming of 6 ∘C could be fully offset by a P increase of 11 % in all basins. These results can be used to (1) identify locations which had the largest hydrological sensitivities to changing climate and (2) diagnose underlying processes responsible for hydrological responses to expected climate change. Variations of hydrological sensitivity in land cover and basin types suggest that different water management and adaptation methods are needed to address enhanced water stress due to expected climate change in different regions of the Prairies Ecozone.

This study evaluated the effects of climate perturbations on snowmelt, soil moisture and streamflow generation in small Canadian Prairie basins using a modeling approach based on classification of basin biophysical and hydraulic parameters. Seven basin classes that encompass the entirety of the Prairie ecozone in Canada were determined by cluster analysis of biophysical characteristics. Individual semi-distributed virtual basin (VB) models representing these classes were parameterized in the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) platform which includes modules for snowmelt and sublimation, soil freezing and thawing, actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture dynamics, groundwater recharge and depressional storage dynamics including fill and spill runoff generation and variable connected areas. Precipitation (P) and temperature (T) perturbation scenarios covering the range of climate model predictions for the 21st century were used to evaluate climate sensitivity of hydrological processes in individual land cover and basin types across the Prairie ecozone. Results indicated that snow accumulation in wetlands had a greater sensitivity to P and T than that in croplands and grasslands in all the basin types. Wetland soil moisture was also more sensitive to T than the cropland and grassland soil moisture. Jointly influenced by land cover distribution and local climate, basin-average snow accumulation was more sensitive to T in the drier and grassland-characterized basins than in the wetter basins dominated by cropland, whilst basin-average soil moisture was most sensitive to T and P perturbations in basins typified by pothole depressions and broad river valleys. Annual streamflow had the greatest sensitivities to T and P in the dry and poorly connected Interior Grassland basins but the smallest in the wet and well-connected Southern Manitoba basins. The ability of P to compensate for warming induced reductions in snow accumulation and streamflow was much higher in the wetter and cropland-dominated basins than in the drier and grassland-characterized basins, whilst decreases in cropland soil moisture induced by the maximum expected warming of 6 °C could be fully offset by P increase of 11 % in all the basins. These results can be used to 1) identify locations which had the largest hydrological sensitivities to changing climate; and 2) diagnose underlying processes responsible for hydrological responses to expected climate change. Variations of hydrological sensitivity in land cover and basin types suggest that different water management and adaptation methods are needed to address enhanced water stress due to expected climate change in different regions of the Prairie ecozone.

Wetland drainage has been pervasive in the North American Prairie Pothole Region. There is strong evidence that this drainage increases the hydrological connectivity of previously isolated wetlands and, in turn, runoff response to snowmelt and rainfall. It can be hard to disentangle the role of climate from the influence of wetland drainage in observed records. In this study, a basin-classification-based virtual modelling approach is described that can isolate these effects on runoff regimes. The basin class which was examined, entitled Pothole Till, extends throughout much of Canada's portion of the Prairie Pothole Region. Three knowledge gaps were addressed. First, it was determined that the spatial pattern in which wetlands are drained has little influence on how much the runoff regime was altered. Second, no threshold could be identified below which wetland drainage has no effect on the runoff regime, with drainage thresholds as low as 10 % in the area being evaluated. Third, wetter regions were less sensitive to drainage as they tend to be better hydrologically connected, even in the absence of drainage. Low flows were the least affected by drainage. Conversely, during extremely wet years, runoff depths could double as the result of complete wetland removal. Simulated median annual runoff depths were the most responsive, potentially tripling under typical conditions with high degrees of wetland drainage. As storage capacity is removed from the landscape through wetland drainage, the size of the storage deficit of median years begins to decrease and to converge on those of the extreme wet years. Model simulations of flood frequency suggest that, because of these changes in antecedent conditions, precipitation that once could generate a median event with wetland drainage can generate what would have been a maximum event without wetland drainage. The advantage of the basin-classification-based virtual modelling approach employed here is that it simulated a long period that included a wide variety of precipitation and antecedent storage conditions across a diversity of wetland complexes. This has allowed seemingly disparate results of past research to be put into context and finds that conflicting results are often only because of differences in spatial scale and temporal scope of investigation. A conceptual framework is provided that shows, in general, how annual runoff in different climatic and drainage situations will likely respond to wetland drainage in the Prairie Pothole Region.

Shifts in hydroclimatic regimes associated with global climate change may impact freshwater availability and quality. In high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, where vast quantities of carbon are stored terrestrially, explaining landscape-scale carbon (C) budgets and associated pollutant transfer is necessary for understanding the impact of changing hydroclimatic regimes. We used a dynamic modelling approach to simulate streamflow, DOC concentration, and DOC export in a northern Canadian catchment that has undergone notable climate warming, and will continue to for the remainder of this century. The Integrated Catchment model for Carbon (INCA-C) was successfully calibrated to a multi-year period (2012-2016) that represents a range in hydrologic conditions. The model was subsequently run over 30-year periods representing baseline and two future climate scenarios. Average discharge is predicted to decrease under an elevated temperature scenario (22-27 % of baseline) but increase (116-175 % of baseline) under an elevated temperature and precipitation scenario. In the latter scenario the nival hydroclimatic regime is expected to shift to a combined nival and pluvial regime. Average DOC flux over 30 years is predicted to decrease (24-27 % of baseline) under the elevated temperature scenario, as higher DOC concentrations are offset by lower runoff. Under the elevated temperature and precipitation scenario, results suggest an increase in carbon export of 64-81 % above baseline. These increases are attributed to greater connectivity of the catchment. The largest increase in DOC export is expected to occur in early winter. These predicted changes in DOC export, particularly under a climate that is warmer and wetter could be part of larger ecosystem change and warrant additional monitoring efforts in the region.

Wetland drainage has been pervasive in the North American Prairie Pothole Region. There is strong evidence that this drainage increases hydrological connectivity of previously isolated wetlands and, in turn, streamflow response to precipitation. It can be hard to disentangle the role of climate from the influence of wetland drainage in observed streamflow records. In this study, a basin classification-based virtual modelling approach is described that can isolate these effects on runoff regimes. Three knowledge gaps were addressed. First, it was determined that the spatial pattern in which wetlands are drained has little influence on how much the runoff regime was altered. Second, no threshold could be identified below which wetland drainage has no effect on the streamflow regime, with drainage thresholds as low as 10 % by area were evaluated. Third, wetter regions were less sensitive to drainage as they tend to be better hydrologically connected even in the absence of drainage. Low flows were the least affected by drainage. During extremely wet years, runoff depths could double as the result of complete wetland removal. Simulated median annual runoff depths were the most responsive, potentially tripling under typical conditions with the high rates of wetland drainage. As storage capacity is removed from the landscape through wetland drainage, the size of the storage deficit of median years begins to decrease and to converge on those of the extreme wet years. Model simulations of flood frequency suggest that because of these changes in antecedent conditions, precipitation that once could generate a median event with wetland drainage can generate what would have been a maximum event without wetland drainage. The advantage of the basin classification-based virtual modelling approach employed here is that it simulated a long period that included a wide variety of precipitation and antecedent storage conditions across a diversity of wetland complexes. This has allowed seemingly disparate results of past research to be put into context and finds that conflicting results are often only because of differences in spatial scale and temporal scope of investigation. A conceptual framework is provided that shows, in general, how annual runoff in different climatic and drainage situations will likely respond to wetland drainage in the Prairie Pothole Region.