Claudia Osés Llanes’s scientific contributions

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Publications (34)


27.Villa Clara-COVID-19
  • Research Proposal
  • File available

April 2022

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55 Reads

Ricardo Por

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Claudia Osés Llanes
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Breve pronostico de la COVID-19 para Cuba e impacto de la vacunación a largo plazo Corrida 46. Fecha 14/4/2022

En la figura 1 puede observarse el impacto de la vacunación y de las medidas aplicadas para tales fines; es de señalar, que los casos deben tener una tendencia a la subida ligera, hay que continuar con medidas de restricción y de vacunación de refuerzo. Parece ser que el modelo tiende a representar una subida, pronosticada para mayo-julio, a partir del 20 de mayo (Tabla 1).


Breve pronostico de la covid-19 para Cuba e impacto de la vacunación a largo plazo Corrida 45. Fecha 24/3/2022

En la figura 1 puede observarse el impacto de la vacunación y las medidas aplicadas; es de señalar, que los casos deben tener una tendencia a la subida ligera, por lo que hay que continuar con medidas de restricción y de vacunación de refuerzo. Todo parece ser que el modelo tiende a representar una subida pronosticada para mayo-junio (Tabla 1).


Pronostico de COVID-19 a largo plazo para la provincia Villa Clara hasta 31 de abril de 2022. Corrida 26. Fecha 24-03-2022

A continuación, una modelación de los casos provinciales confirmados para Villa Clara con 27 días de antelación. El modelo explica la gran cantidad de varianza, y puede ser de utilidad en la toma de decisiones a nivel provincial, y está hecho con los datos de marzo 24, 2022. Como puede observarse hay un ligero aumento de casos provinciales que pudiera mantenerse hasta el 15 de abril.


Breve pronostico de la COVID-19 para Cuba e impacto de la vacunación a largo plazo Corrida 43. Fecha 18/2/2022

February 2022

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15 Reads

En cuanto al impacto de la vacunación y las medidas de control, es de señalar que los casos deben continuar disminuyendo, se aprecia un ciclo con un control estricto, por lo que hay que continuar con las medidas de restricción y de vacunación de refuerzo (Figura 1). Hay que recordar que esta enfermedad presenta un parámetro significativo de 105 dias (Tabla 1).


Figura 2. Pronostico a largo plazo para Villa Clara, Cuba.
Figura 3. Pronostico muy largo plazo para Villa Clara con 105 días de antelación.
24.Villa Clara

February 2022

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38 Reads

A continuación, la modelación de los casos provinciales confirmados para la provincia Villa Clara, Cuba con 27 días de antelación, se trata de un modelo que explica gran cantidad de varianza, y puede ser de alguna utilidad en la toma de decisiones a nivel provincial, y el mismo está hecho con los datos febrero 18, 2022. Como puede observarse, hay una ligera disminución de casos provinciales que pudiera mantenerse e incluso ir disminuyendo (Figura 1).


Fig. 6: Long-term forecast of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Santa Clara municipality as of April 28 through May 7, 2020
Methodology of The Objective Regressive Regression In Function of The Prognosis For Deaths, Critical, Severe, Confirmed And New Cases of Covid-19 In Santa Clara Municipality And Cuba

February 2022

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39 Reads

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3 Citations

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The COVID-19 pandemic affecting planet Earth has had a peculiar development in our country. Objective: The objective of the research was to model, using the Regressive Objective Regression (ROR) methodology, a set of parameters (deaths, critical, severe, confirmed and new cases) inherent to the SARS CoV-2 COVID-19 pandemic, so far in 2020 in Cuba. The parameters analyzed were: deaths, serious, critical, confirmed and new cases, in the municipality of Santa Clara, Villa Clara and Cuba. The modeling used was Regressive Objective Regression (ROR) modeling, which is based on a combination of Dummy variables with ARIMA modeling. In the ROR methodology, dichotomous variables DS, DI and NoC are created in a first step, and then the module corresponding to the Regression analysis of the statistical package SPSS version 19.0 is executed, specifically the ENTER method where the predicted variable and the ERROR are obtained. Mathematical models were obtained by means of the ROR methodology that explain the behavior of the same, depending on the variable to study, 6, 4, 10 and 14 days in advance, which made it possible to make long term prognoses, allowing to take measures in the clinical services, and thus to avoid and to diminish the number of deaths and complications in patients with COVID-19. Despite being a new disease in the world, COVID-19 can be followed by means of ROR mathematical modeling. This allows for a decrease in the number of dead, serious and critical patients for a better management of the pandemic.


Breve pronostico de la COVID-19 para Cuba e impacto de la vacunación a largo plazo Corrida 42. Fecha 6/2/2022

February 2022

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24 Reads

En la figura 1 puede observarse el impacto de la vacunación y las medidas. Es de señalar, que los casos deben continuar subiendo amecetandose hasta el 20 de abril, y podrían disminuir grandemente, se aprecia un ciclo con un control estricto, por lo que debemos continuar con medidas de restricción y de vacunación de refuerzo (Figura 1). Hay que recordar que esta enfermedad presenta un parámetro significativo de 105 días. Quisimos modelar el posible impacto del día 27 de enero en los casos a posteriori, para lo cual creamos una variable que antes de esa fecha tomaba el valor de 0 y después de esa fecha, el valor de 1, llegando al siguiente modelo (Tabla 1).



22.Casos Provinciales Villa Clara con datos pronostico hasta 26 de marzo de 2022

January 2022

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12 Reads

A continuación, una modelación de los casos provinciales confirmados para la provincia Villa Clara, Cuba, con 27 días de antelación; es un modelo que, explica gran cantidad de varianza y puede ser de alguna utilidad en la toma de decisiones a nivel provincial, está hecho con los datos de enero 21. Como puede observarse hay una ligera disminución de casos provinciales que pudiera mantenerse.


Citations (9)


... Regression analysis is the most widely used statistical technique to investigate or estimate the relationship between dependent variables and a set of independent explanatory variables. In our environment, the ROR methodology has allowed mathematical modeling a) the larval densities of mosquitoes b) the population dynamics of mollusks, c) the modeling of infectious entities of different etiologies, such as HIV/AIDS, Cholera, Influenza, Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI), Covid-19, Acute Bronchial Asthma Crisis (CAAB), Fasciolosis, Angiostrongylosis and even, d) in the estimation of the longitude and area of the universe, monthly forecast of precipitations and extreme temperatures, e) forecast of meteorological disturbances (cold fronts, and hurricanes, latitude prediction and length of earthquakes) search for information in white noises) modeling of the Equivalent Effective Temperature (TEE) and Atmospheric Pressure ( PA) h) up to the electricity consumption of a municipality or province ), and more recently in the COVID-19 pandemic [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. ...

Reference:

Measurement Of Background Radiation at Oracle Plastics and Sacks Company in Makurdi, Benue State
Methodology of The Objective Regressive Regression In Function of The Prognosis For Deaths, Critical, Severe, Confirmed And New Cases of Covid-19 In Santa Clara Municipality And Cuba

... By establishing the nature of this trend, whether increasing, decreasing, or stable, stakeholders can better understand the aging pattern in each ethnic community in Sarawak. Linear regression attempts to analyze the relationship between two variables by fitting a linear equation to the observed data [21] and [22]. One variable is considered the explanatory (independent) variable, and the other is considered the dependent variable [23] and [24]. ...

How the Chaos Theory is Defeated in the Yabu Meteorological Station, Cuba

Journal of Biomedical Research & Environmental Sciences

... There are a large number of natural and even social phenomena in nature whose occurrence, evolution and final result depend on several independent variables (Fimia et al., 2021;Osés et al., 2021a, b;Arencibia, 2022). Even though all these variables intervene in the phenomenon, some are more important than others and even the interrelation between them plays a very important role (Wynants et al., 2020;Osés et al., 2021a;Monzón et al., 2023). The intervention of several independent variables makes the prediction of the occurrence of a natural phenomenon difficult to quantify (Gupta et Currently, there are several methods to predict the occurrence of some phenomenon or outcome, which are encompassed in predictive analytics (Xu et Rashid et al., 2023). ...

Comparison of Linear ROR Vs Nonlinear Weibull Model for COVID- 19 in Iraq

... It is noteworthy that despite many studies addressing the relationship between infarcted patients and climatological variables [4][5][6][7][8][9][10] , among many others; the opposite is true for addressing the relationship between climate variables with infarcted patients using mathematical modeling [11][12][13][14] . Studies related to the application of mathematical modeling in arboviral and parasitic entities, transmitted by vector organisms, are much more numerous [15][16][17][18][19][21][22][23][24] , as well as recent research on the use of mathematical modeling as a function of COVID-19 [20,[25][26][27][28] . Internationally, research on the incidence of meteorological variables in infarcted patients using mathematical modeling is scarce [14,[29][30][31][32] , something similar happens in Cuba [33][34][35][36][37] . ...

Comparison of Linear ROR Vs Nonlinear Weibull Model for COVID- 19 in Iraq

... ARI is the leading cause of medical consultations and morbidity in both developed and developing countries (Osés et al., 2017;Osés et al., 2018b;Fimia et al., 2023). The presence of ARI in children under five years of age is independent of living conditions and the degree of development of a country. ...

HOW REGRESSIVE OBJECTIVE REGRESSION METHODOLOGY FINDS INFORMATION BEYOND A WHITE NOISE

... linear regression through the origin 4. epidemic modeling is historical and has been refined with the advancement of science and technologies, demonstrating the essential role of mathematics in indicating where the disease may move and giving suggestions on how to decide (guinovart, 2020). COVID-19 disease has been recognized as a global threat, in which predictive models for the epidemiological trend of its prevalence and incidence have been being used worldwide (Osés et al., 2018;Prades, 2020;Osés et al., 2021c). ...

Forecast of New and Deceased Cases of COVID-19 in Cuba with an Advance of 105 Days

... Table 1. This model depends on the number of cases returned in 105 days that corresponds to the National data for Cuba) [13]. The mathematical effect of vaccination is small but 100% significant, this may be due to the fact that the The vaccination data that we were able to obtain correspond to the nation and not to the province, despite this difficulty we decided to include them, the cases of Covid-19 depend on the Atmospheric Pressure in the Yabú station as it increases, the cases of Covid increase , with an increase of 1000 hPa the cases can increase by 184 cases, we know that the increase in cases depends on contagion, which does not mean that the virus may be affected by atmospheric pressure and favor or not its incidence in people. ...

Forecast of New and Deceased Cases of COVID-19 in Cuba with an Advance of 105 Days

Acta Scientific Veterinary Sciences

... Application of the ROR methodology to the modeling of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, both in the Santa Clara municipality and the Villa Clara province and for Cuba, which allowed us to make short, medium and long forecasts deadline depending on COVID-19. Making forecasts for deaths and new cases with an advance of 105 days in Cuba, as well as forecasts for deaths, critical, severe, confirmed cases and new cases of COVID-19 in the Santa Clara municipality and at the country level; in addition to the application of said methodology based on vaccination against COVID-19 in Cuba, and the comparison of the ROR methodology as a linear model with the non-linear Weibull model for COVID-19 [36][37][38]. ...

Reference:

ARTICLE HISTORY
Age Prediction for COVID-19 Suspects and Contacts in Villa Clara Province

... El pronóstico se realizó con el uso de la metodología de Regresión Objetiva Regresiva (ROR) que ha sido implementada en diferentes variables como los virus y bacterias que circulan en la provincia Villa Clara [22][23][24][25] . ...

MODELACIÓN MATEMÁTICA DEL CÓLERA POR MEDIO DE LA REGRESIÓN OBJETIVA REGRESIVA Y SU RELACIÓN CON LAS VARIABLES CLIMÁTICAS. CAIBARIÉN, VILLA CLARA, CUBA