Clark Gray's research while affiliated with University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and other places

Publications (55)

Preprint
The potential effects of climate change on human migration have received widespread attention, driven in part by concerns about possible large-scale population displacements. Recent studies demonstrate that climate-migration linkages are often more complex than commonly assumed, and climatic variability may increase, decrease, or have null effects...
Article
The literature on climate exposures and human migration has focused largely on assessing short‐term responses to temperature and precipitation shocks. In this paper, we suggest that this common coping strategies model can be extended to account for mechanisms that link environmental conditions to migration behavior over longer periods of time. We a...
Preprint
The existing literature on climate change and migration has focused largely on assessing short-term responses to temperature and precipitation shocks. In this paper, we suggest that this common “coping strategies” model can be extended to account for mechanisms that link environmental conditions to migration behavior over longer periods of time. We...
Article
One of the major unresolved questions in the study of vulnerability to climate change is how human migration will respond in low and middle-income countries. The present study directly addresses this lacuna by using census data on migration from 4 million individuals from three middle-income African countries over a 22-year period. We link these in...
Article
In the Amazon basin and other tropical forest regions, many forested landscapes are inhabited by indigenous peoples who are increasingly exposed to infrastructure expansion, large-scale natural resource extraction, and development programs. How indigenous land use evolves in this context will be a critical determinant of the future of these forests...
Article
This paper examines the relationship between weather conditions and child nutrition in Ethiopia. We link data from four rounds of the Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey to high-resolution climate data to measure exposure to rainfall and temperature in utero and during early life. We then estimate a set of multivariate regression models to under...
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Full-text available
Globally, rural livelihoods are increasingly challenged by the dual threats of land degradation and climate change. These issues are of particular concern in sub-Saharan Africa, where land degradation is believed to be severe and where climate change will bring higher temperatures and shifts in rainfall. To date, however, we know little about the r...
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A persistent concern about the social consequences of climate change is that large, vulnerable populations will be involuntarily displaced. Existing evidence suggests that changes in precipitation and temperature can increase migration in particular contexts, but the potential for this relationship to evolve over time alongside processes of adaptat...
Preprint
Global climate change has the potential to disrupt agricultural systems, undermine household socioeconomic status, and shape the prevalence and distribution of diseases. Each of these changes is expected to influence children’s nutritional status, which is sensitive to food availability, access, and utilization and which may have lasting consequenc...
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Research shows that environmental shocks can influence migration. However, studies vary widely in the shocks and type of migration measured, the context, and the strength and direction of environmental effects. In addition, existing theories provide opposing predictions for this relationship. There is a clear need for further theoretical developmen...
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Africa is likely to experience warming and increased climate variability by the late 21st century. Climate extremes have been linked to adverse economic outcomes. Hence, adaptation is a key component of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreements and development assistance. Effective climate adaptation policy requires an un...
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Indigenous populations in Latin America are central to regional and global efforts toward achieving socially and environmentally sustainable development. However, existing demographic research on indigenous forest peoples (IFPs) has many limitations, including a lack of comparable cross-national evidence. We address this gap by linking representati...
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La Amazonía ecuatoriana es una de las zonas bióticas más ricas de la tierra y con pluralidad de poblaciones indígenas. Este estudio pretende reconocer la situación de estas poblaciones, analizando sus tendencias en el tiempo mediante un estudio longitudinal sobre su situación demográfica y socioeconómica en la primera década del siglo XXI. Se obser...
Article
We examine how migration is influenced by temperature and precipitation variability, and the extent to which the receipt of a cash transfer affects the use of migration as an adaptation strategy. Climate data is merged with georeferenced panel data (2010–2014) on individual migration collected from the Zambian Child Grant Program (CGP) sites. We us...
Article
Climate change is likely to induce a large range of household- and individual-level responses, including changes in human fertility behaviors and outcomes. These responses may have important implications for human and economic development and women's empowerment. Drawing on the literature linking climate conditions to rice cultivation in Indonesia,...
Article
Climate change may negatively impact education among children via exposure to extreme temperature and precipitation conditions. We link census data from 29 countries across the global tropics to high-resolution gridded climate data to understand how climatic conditions experienced in utero and during early childhood affect educational attainment at...
Article
Recent research suggests that sub-Saharan Africa will be among the regions most affected by the negative social and biophysical ramifications of climate change. Smallholders are anticipated to respond to rising temperatures and precipitation anomalies through on-farm management strategies and diversification into off-farm activities. Few studies ha...
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Full-text available
Given projected increases in the frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes in China, we examine the extent adults may be vulnerable to climate anomalies. We link nutrition, health, and economic data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1989–2011) to gridded climate data to identify which socioeconomic outcomes are particularly susc...
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Background Climate change is likely to induce a large range of household-level responses, including changes in human fertility behaviours and outcomes. These responses might have important implications for human and economic development, women's empowerment, and environmental sustainability. However, to date, few studies have explored the associati...
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Full-text available
We examine the effect of anomalous temperatures, rainfall levels, and monsoon timing on migration outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey and high-resolution climate data, we assess whether intra- and inter-province moves are used as a response to climatic shocks. We evaluate the relative importance of tempera...
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Full-text available
We examine the effect of anomalous temperatures, rainfall levels, and monsoon timing on migration outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey and high-resolution climate data, we assess whether intra- and inter-province moves are used as a response to climatic shocks. We evaluate the relative importance of tempera...
Article
Mass migration is one of the most concerning potential outcomes of global climate change. Recent research into environmentally induced migration suggests that relationship is much more complicated than originally posited by the ‘environmental refugee’ hypothesis. Climate change is likely to increase migration in some cases and reduce it in others,...
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Environmental factors such as climate variability can place significant constraints on demographic behavior in a range of settings. However, few studies investigate the relationships between demography and climate in historical contexts. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and cli...
Article
Tropical deforestation and forest degradation are among the top global threats to biodiversity, carbon storage and rural livelihoods, but the social processes underlying these changes remain difficult to observe across large spatial scales and in data-poor contexts such as tropical Africa. We link longitudinal survey data from agricultural househol...
Article
Amazonian indigenous populations are approaching a critical stage in their history in which increasing education and market integration, rapid population growth and degradation of natural resources threaten the survival of their traditions and livelihoods. A topic that has hardly been touched upon in this context is migration and population mobilit...
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This paper examines the effects of climate variability on schooling outcomes in rural Ethiopia. Investments in education serve as an important pathway out of poverty, yet reduced agricultural productivity due to droughts or temperature shocks may affect educational attainment if children receive poorer nutrition during early childhood, are required...
Article
We examine the effect of climate variability on human migration in South America. Our analyses draw on over 21 million observations of adults aged 15–40 from 25 censuses conducted in eight South American countries. Addressing limitations associated with methodological diversity among prior studies, we apply a common analytic approach and uniform de...
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Full-text available
Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided...
Article
Globally, the extraction of minerals and fossil fuels is increasingly penetrating into isolated regions inhabited by indigenous peoples, potentially undermining their livelihoods and well-being. To provide new insight to this issue, we draw on a unique longitudinal dataset collected in the Ecuadorian Amazon over an 11-year period from 484 indigenou...
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Communities indigenous to the Amazon are among the few remaining worldwide still practicing near-natural fertility, without the use of modern contraceptives. Given the large proportion of women desiring no more births, information on the challenges women there face in limiting fertility would be useful. Samples of women of reproductive age from fiv...
Article
Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique...
Article
In recent years, the empirical literature linking environmental factors and human migration has grown rapidly and gained increasing visibility among scholars and the policy community. Still, this body of research uses a wide range of methodological approaches for assessing environment–migration relationships. Without comparable data and measures ac...
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Understanding of human vulnerability to environmental change has advanced in recent years, but measuring vulnerability and interpreting mobility across many sites differentially affected by change remains a significant challenge. Drawing on longitudinal data collected on the same respondents who were living in coastal areas of Indonesia before the...
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Human migration is frequently cited as a potential social outcome of climate change and variability, and these effects are often assumed to be stronger in the past when economies were less developed and markets more localized. Yet, few studies have used historical data to test the relationship between climate and migration directly. In addition, th...
Article
In rural Ecuador and elsewhere in Latin America, the departure of migrants and the receipt of migrant remittances have led to declining rural populations and increasing cash incomes. It is commonly assumed that these processes will lead to agricultural abandonment and the regrowth of native vegetation, thus undermining traditional livelihoods and p...
Conference Paper
Background/Question/Methods The increasing national and international emigration from rural areas is changing agricultural land management. The impact of Ecuadorian emigration on small and medium scales agriculture is analyzed through a statistical assessment of tho central highland region in 2008. The research question declared was: What are t...
Article
The question of whether environmental conditions influence human migration has recently gained considerable attention, driven by claims that global environmental change will displace large populations. Despite this high level of interest, few quantitative studies have investigated the potential effects of environmental factors on migration, particu...
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Full-text available
The consequences of environmental change for human migration have gained increasing attention in the context of climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as yet relatively few large-scale and quantitative studies have addressed this issue. We investigate the consequences of climate-related natural disasters for long-term populati...
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Significant attention has focused on the possibility that climate change will displace large populations in the developing world, but few multivariate studies have investigated climate-induced migration. We use event history methods and a unique longitudinal dataset from the rural Ethiopian highlands to investigate the effects of drought on populat...
Article
Soil degradation is widely considered to be a key factor undermining agricultural livelihoods in the developing world and contributing to rural out-migration. To date, however, few quantitative studies have examined the effects of soil characteristics on human migration or other social outcomes for potentially vulnerable households. This study take...
Article
This paper investigates the roles of gender and natural capital (defined as land and associated environmental services) in out-migration from a rural study area in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Drawing on original household survey data, I construct and compare multivariate event history models of individual-level, household-level, and community-le...
Article
To examine differences in land use and environmental impacts between colonist and indigenous populations in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon, we combined data from household surveys and remotely sensed imagery that was collected from 778 colonist households in 64 colonization sectors, and 499 households from five indigenous groups in 36 communities....
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Full-text available
In the rat, some phthalates alter sexual differentiation at relatively low dosage levels by altering fetal Leydig cell development and hormone synthesis, thereby inducing abnormalities of the testis, gubernacular ligaments, epididymis, and other androgen-dependent tissues. In order to define the dose-response relationship between di(2-ethylhexyl) p...
Article
This study investigates the consequences of out-migration and migrant remittances for smallholder agriculture in a rural and environmentally marginal study area in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Migration and remittances have the potential for transformative impacts on agriculture in origin areas of migration due to consequent declines in labor ava...
Article
Summary Out-migration, environmental degradation, and changes in land distribution are all key processes of rural transformation in the developing world, but few quantitative studies have investigated their interactions in migrant origin areas. This study uses survey data from the southern Ecuadorian Andes and an event history model to investigate...
Article
Full-text available
Among the remaining tropical forests of lowland Latin America, many are inhabited by indigenous peoples, and the sustainability of their land uses is a point of heated debate in the conservation community. Numerous small-scale studies have documented changes in indigenous land use in individual communities in the context of expanding frontier settl...
Article
Profound social, economic, and environmental changes that include new land management practices are often associated with advancing agricultural frontiers. We argue that existing approaches to case studies do not allow for clear generalization or the systematic testing of hypotheses. As an alternative, our study uses Mill's method of agreement appr...
Article
The Indian Ocean tsunami of December, 2004 was one of the most severe natural disasters in human history and resulted in extensive relocation by people living in damaged areas. We describe post-tsunami geographic mobility in the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra in Indonesia, the area worst-affected by the tsunami. Data from a unique longitudinal...

Citations

... 3 The following two studies illustrate each frame. First, for an Environmental-Drivers example, Mueller, Gray, and Hopping (2020) examine the effects of temperature and precipitation on migration in three countries in Eastern and Southern Africa, holding the spatial (district) and temporal (census year) context, constant. The authors find that higher temperature correlates with a decrease in migration in Botswana, while higher precipitation increases migration in Botswana and Kenya, but decreases migration in Zambia. ...
... Third, early exposure to climatic variability may alter developmental processes central to human capital formation, which may affect migration rates given the correlations between human capital, socioeconomic outcomes, and geographic mobility (Gray 2009;Mberu 2005;Ramírez-Luzuriaga et al. 2021;Williams 2009). Prenatal and early childhood exposure to climatic variability has been linked to fluctuations in birth weight and the prevalence of malnutrition and related illnesses during childhood (Bakhtsiyarava, Grace, and Nawrotzki 2018;Bandyopadhyay, Kanji, and Wang 2012;Davenport et al. 2017;Grace et al. 2012Grace et al. , 2015Hoddinott and Kinsey 2001;Randell, Gray, and Grace 2020;Thiede and Gray 2020). These conditions are known to cause substantial and sometimes irreversible changes in cognitive development, health, and socioeconomic attainment over the life course (Almond and Currie 2011;Hayward and Gorman 2004;Maccini and Yang 2009;Randell and Gray 2019;Torche and Conley 2015). ...
... The main drivers of agricultural expansion in the Amazon region are global market demand and the pursuit of wealth (Byerlee et al., 2014;Gray and Bilsborrow, 2020;Xu et al., 2021). Given that food security is fully guaranteed, economic pursuit is also an important factor leading to the expansion of farmland in SNP and SJP from the farmers to the local government. ...
... The existing studies revealed that environmental changes and the local natural environment had significant impacts on the loss of rural population [53]. However, specific factors have been found to vary in different areas, such as the dry and hot climate in central Australia, and drought in Ethiopia [27,32]. ...
... Moreover, in a situation where climate shocks affect agricultural productivity, and farmers have limited alternate livelihoods in the rural areas, farmers tend to out-migrate (Mueller et al. 2020). In some cases, farmers shift to other local coping strategies. ...
... Rather, the historical, social and political factors underpinning and facilitating non-migration merit greater attention, beyond the simple absence of the facilitation of mobility (Pemberton et al., 2021). In a longitudinal study in China, migrants returned home after years to participate in resilient livelihood activities, indicating how climate migration might decline over time, outpacing mounting climate change effects through successful in situ adaptation (Gray et al., 2020). Further studies on whether adaptation strategies have influenced the trajectory of environmental migration scenarios may prove instructive. ...
... Las comunidades están cada vez más integradas a la economía globalizada, no obstante sus indicadores de salud, nutrición, educación e ingresos, están por lo general considerablemente por debajo de los promedios nacionales (e.g Pan et al., 2010;Thiede & Gray, 2020). Por lo tanto, su búsqueda por mejorar su estándar de vida es constante. ...
... However, a significant amount of variation persists in the migration patterns of people affected by the same climate event (e.g., Black et al., 2011Black et al., , 2013Field et al., 2012;Cattaneo et al., 2019;Bohra-Mishra et al., 2014, 2017Thiede & Gray, 2017;Gray & Wise, 2016;Thiede et al., 2016;Koubi et al., 2016aKoubi et al., , 2016bWilliams & Gray, 2020). While there is some evidence that migration results from a dynamic range of interactions between climate events and individual or household-level characteristics such as wealth or education (Bohra-Mishra et al., 2017;Logan et al., 2016;Warner & Afifi, 2014;Warner et al., 2012), the corresponding findings stem mostly from single-country analyses. ...
... These activities are completely linked to the global market, and also imply an increased use of chemicals and fertilizers, given the low quality of Amazonian soils and the quantity of pests. Therefore, modifications are occurring and even more intensely due to the presence of other actors, such as extractive companies and the State (Vasco et al., 2015;Salinas Castro et al., 2020). ...
... We draw on the baseline data and follow-up surveys conducted in 2013, 2014, and 2017. Importantly, so as not to confound our results with the operation of the CGP itself (Chakrabarti, 2019;Mueller et al., 2020), we restrict our analysis to the 1085 households which were randomized to the control group and which had data from all four waves of data collection. 3 We focus on the use of fuel for cooking, which is the primary use of household energy in our study setting. ...