Christopher JL Murray's research while affiliated with University of Washington Seattle and other places
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Publications (296)
Stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide. The burden of disability after a stroke is also large, and is increasing at a faster pace in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Alarmingly, the incidence of stroke is increasing in young and middle-aged people (ie, age <55 years) globally. Should these trends...
Aim:
To deliver the most wide-ranging set of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) burden estimates for Croatia to date.
Methods:
A complex modeling approach with five broad modeling components was used to estimate the disease burden for 12 main infectious syndromes and one residual group, 23 pathogenic bacteria, and 88 bug-drug combinations. This was...
Background
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent global health challenge and a critical threat to modern health care. Quantifying its burden in the WHO Region of the Americas has been elusive—despite the region’s long history of resistance surveillance. This study provides comprehensive estimates of AMR burden in the Americas to assess this g...
Background
There are large and persistent disparities in life expectancy among racial–ethnic groups in the USA, but the extent to which these patterns vary geographically on a local scale is not well understood. This analysis estimated life expectancy for five racial–ethnic groups, in 3110 US counties over 20 years, to describe spatial–temporal var...
Importance
While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID.
Objective
To estimate by countr...
Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for publ...
Venomous snakebite is an important cause of preventable death. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a goal to halve snakebite mortality by 2030. We used verbal autopsy and vital registration data to model the proportion of venomous animal deaths due to snakes by location, age, year, and sex, and applied these proportions to venomous animal conta...
Importance
In-hospital mortality rates from COVID-19 are high but appear to be decreasing for selected locations in the United States. It is not known whether this is because of changes in the characteristics of patients being admitted.
Objective
To describe changing in-hospital mortality rates over time after accounting for individual patient cha...
Objective
To estimate health care systems' value in treating major illnesses for each US state and identify system characteristics associated with value.
Data sources
Annual condition-specific death and incidence estimates for each US state from the Global Burden Disease 2019 Study and annual health care spending per person for each state from the...
The world made remarkable progress in reducing extreme poverty over the last twenty years. Recent progress has slowed, however, and the economic damage wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic imperils progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of eradicating extreme poverty and alleviating inequality by the year 2030. To track pro...
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countr...
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disea...
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disea...
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disea...
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disea...
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of
global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden,
including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the
Global Burden of Disea...
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disea...
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disea...
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disea...
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disea...
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countr...
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countr...
Background Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardise...
Background
In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publi...
To make the best decisions to improve health, policymakers need reliable, up-to-date information on the major challenges facing their country. The Global Burden of Disease study facilitates this by providing comprehensive and scientifically rigorous estimates of the causes of death and illness across the globe. It examines a total of 79 risk factor...
Neurological disorders are the leading cause of disability and the second leading cause of death worldwide. In the past 30 years, the absolute numbers of deaths and people with disabilities owing to neurological diseases have risen substantially, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, and further increases are expected globally as...
EVIDENCE REVIEW We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fer...
Background:
Plasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax, national malaria programmes-particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies-req...
Background And Purpose
The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is experiencing a demographic shift towards rapid ageing at a time of political unrest. We aimed to estimate the burden of neurodegenerative disorders, and its relationship with sociodemographic indicators (SDI) in the EMR countries from 1990 to 2016.
Methods
Using data from the Global...
Supplement to: GBD 2016 Brain and Other CNS Cancer Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of brain and other CNS cancer, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet Neurol 2019; published online
Feb 20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1474-4422(18)30468-X.
Background:
Brain and CNS cancers (collectively referred to as CNS cancers) are a source of mortality and morbidity for which diagnosis and treatment require extensive resource allocation and sophisticated diagnostic and therapeutic technology. Previous epidemiological studies are limited to specific geographical regions or time periods, making th...
Background The number of individuals living with dementia is increasing, negatively affecting families, communities, and health-care systems around the world. A successful response to these challenges requires an accurate understanding of the dementia disease burden. We aimed to present the first detailed analysis of the global prevalence, mortalit...
BACKGROUND:The burden of diabetes is increasing rapidly in India but a systematic understanding of its distribution and time trends is not available for every state of India. We present a comprehensive analysis of the time trends and heterogeneity in the distribution of diabetes burden across all states of India between 1990 and 2016. METHODS:We an...
BACKGROUND:The burden of cardiovascular diseases is increasing in India, but a systematic understanding of its distribution and time trends across all the states is not readily available. In this report, we present a detailed analysis of how the patterns of cardiovascular diseases and major risk factors have changed across the states of India betwe...
Background
Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. He...
Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantif...
Suicide is a major public health issue in India. We assessed the trends in age-standardised suicide rate at sub-national level and by socio-demographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2016 for India. We estimated age-standardised suicide mortality per 1 00 000 population as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016, utilising all available dat...
Background:
Alcohol and drug use can have negative consequences on the health, economy, productivity, and social aspects of communities. We aimed to use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 to calculate global and regional estimates of the prevalence of alcohol, amphetamine, cannabis, cocaine, and op...
Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016,...
Background:
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies in 1990-2016 and assesses how the burden of diarrhoea has changed in people of all ages.
Methods:
We modelled diarrhoea mortality wi...
Background:
Human capital is recognised as the level of education and health in a population and is considered an important determinant of economic growth. The World Bank has called for measurement and annual reporting of human capital to track and motivate investments in health and education and enhance productivity. We aim to provide a new compr...
Background Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016,...
Background:
Few data are available on the supply and consumption of nutrients at the country level. To address this data gap, we aimed to create a database that provides information on availability (ie, supply) of 156 nutrients across 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2013.
Methods:
We matched 394 food and agricultural commodities from...
Supplement to: GBD 2016 Healthcare Access and Quality Collaborators. Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2018; published online May 23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)...
OBJECTIVES:We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study results to explore the burden of high body mass index (BMI) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). METHODS:We estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children (2-19 years) and adults (≥20 years) in 1980 and 2015. The burden of disease related to high BMI was calcu...
OBJECTIVES:We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015. METHODS:Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by p...
OBJECTIVES:Mental disorders are among the leading causes of nonfatal burden of disease globally. METHODS:We used the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study 2015 to examine the burden of mental disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR). We defined mental disorders according to criteria proposed in the diagnostic and st...
OBJECTIVES:Diarrheal diseases (DD) are an important cause of disease burden, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact children's potential livelihood through growth faltering, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. METHODS:As part of the Global Burden of Disease study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable...
OBJECTIVES:Transport injuries (TI) are ranked as one of the leading causes of death, disability, and property loss worldwide. This paper provides an overview of the burden of TI in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by age and sex from 1990 to 2015. METHODS:Transport injuries mortality in the EMR was estimated using the Global Burden of Disease...
OBJECTIVES:Assessing the burden of maternal mortality is important for tracking progress and identifying public health gaps. This paper provides an overview of the burden of maternal mortality in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. METHODS:We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 stu...
OBJECTIVES:The Eastern Mediterranean Region faces several health challenges at a difficult time with wars, unrest, and economic change. METHODS:We used the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the Eastern Mediterranean Region from 1990 to 2015. RESULTS:Ischemic heart disease was the le...
OBJECTIVES:Although substantial reductions in under-5 mortality have been observed during the past 35 years, progress in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) has been uneven. This paper provides an overview of child mortality and morbidity in the EMR based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. METHODS:We used GBD 2015 study results to expl...
OBJECTIVES:To report the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) during 1990-2015. METHODS:We used the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study for estimates of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of different CVD in 22 countries of EMR. RESULTS:A total of 1.4 million CVD deaths (95% UI: 1.3-1.5...
OBJECTIVES:We used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study (GBD) to calculate the burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) in the 22 countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2015. METHODS:We conducted a systematic analysis of mortality and morbidity data for LRI and its specific etiologic factors, including pn...
Objectives:
Diarrheal diseases (DD) are an important cause of disease burden, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact children's potential livelihood through growth faltering, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae.
Methods:
As part of the Global Burden of Disease study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attribut...
OBJECTIVES:We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to update our previous publication on the burden of diabetes and chronic kidney disease due to diabetes (CKD-DM) during 1990-2015. METHODS:We extracted GBD 2015 estimates for prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of diabetes (including burden of low...
This is the supplement for DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30703-X
Background: An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories.
Methods:...
