Christophe Spaenjers's research while affiliated with HEC Paris and other places
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Publications (55)
We construct a neural network algorithm that generates price predictions for art at auction, relying on both visual and nonvisual object characteristics. We find that higher automated valuations relative to auction house pre‐sale estimates are associated with substantially higher price‐to‐estimate ratios and lower buy‐in rates, pointing to estimate...
Real and private-value assets—defined here as the sum of real estate, infrastructure, collectibles, and noncorporate business equity—compose an investment class worth an estimated $84 trillion in the U.S. alone. Furthermore, private values can affect pricing in many other financial markets, such as that for sustainable investments. This paper intro...
Real estate—housing in particular—is a less profitable investment in the long run than previously thought. We hand-collect property-level financial data for the institutional real estate portfolios of four large Oxbridge colleges over the period 1901–1983. Gross income yields initially fluctuate around 5%, but then trend downward (upward) for agric...
Previous research has shown that nonlocal household investors make suboptimal asset selection and market timing decisions. However, in real estate markets, heterogeneity in returns can exist even with identical ex ante investment (timing) choices, given that transaction prices are the outcome of a complex search-and-bargaining process. Analyzing no...
The risk-return characteristics of art as an asset have been previously studied through aggregate price indexes. By contrast, we examine the long-run buy-and-hold performance of an actual portfolio, namely, the collection of John Maynard Keynes. We find that its performance has substantially exceeded existing estimates of art market returns. Our an...
We present an infinite-horizon model of endogenous trading in the art auction market. Agents make purchase and sale decisions based on the relative magnitude of their private use value in each period. Our model generates endogenous cross-sectional and time-series patterns in investment outcomes. Average returns and buy-in probabilities are negative...
We consider a second-price private-value auction in the presence of an exogenous participation cost and a secret reserve price endogenously set by the seller. We show that, if the entry cost is strictly positive, the only equilibrium outcome is that the seller chooses a reserve price that deters entry and no buyer enters.
What can studying the creation of knowledge tell us about how new technical fields emerge and develop? This paper shows how a knowledge community may be necessary to support the legitimacy of new products that undergo performance evaluation before purchase. Using historical and ethnographic data covering half a century, we review the growth of the...
We talk to three experts in asset prices, who summarise the pros and cons of investing in fine wine
Using historical price records for Bordeaux Premiers Crus, we examine the impact of aging on wine prices and the long-term investment performance of fine wine. In line with the predictions of an illustrative model, young maturing wines from high-quality vintages provide the highest financial returns. Past maturity, famous châteaus deliver growing n...
Aggregate art price patterns mask a lot of underlying variation—both in the time series and in the cross-section. We argue that, to increase our understanding of the market for aesthetics, it is helpful to take a micro perspective on the formation of art prices, and acknowledge that each artwork gives rise to a market for trading in its private-val...
This paper examines how the international demand for luxury consumption affects the real estate market in global hotspots. Using a unique data set of housing transactions in Paris, we find that (i) non-resident foreigners crowd out residents in highly desirable areas of the city, especially in good times; (ii) these non-residents overpay and realiz...
The authors reviewed the long-term investment performance of collectibles and found that these so-called emotional assets have outperformed government bonds, Treasury bills, and gold over the long run. However, the costs of trading in these markets are high and an investor faces many dangers and pitfalls. Emotional assets are particularly attractiv...
We hypothesize the existence of a slow-moving fad component in art prices. Using unique panel survey data on art market participants’ confidence levels in the outlook for a set of artists, we find that sentiment indeed predicts short-term returns.
Works of art are neither easily tradable across borders, nor evaluated according to globally identical standards. We examine geographical segmentation and its effects on price formation and returns in the international art auction market. We find (i) a close connection between the country of sale and the type (e.g., nationality) of artworks sold; (...
We present a model of trading in the art auction market. Agents make purchase and sale decisions based on the relative magnitude of their private use value. This generates an endogenous negative relation between holding periods and financial returns. In economic expansions consignment volume goes up, while reserve prices become less restrictive. Ou...
How does underlying knowledge support market development? Our research shows how a knowledge community may be necessary to support the emergence of new categories in markets where products are evaluated before purchase. Using epistemic cultures to frame field growth, we review the development of artwork as a recognizable financial investment catego...
Using data from a U.S. household survey, we examine the empirical relation between subjective life horizon (i.e., the self-reported expectation of remaining life span) and portfolio choice. We find that equity portfolio shares are higher for investors with longer horizons, ceteris paribus, in line with theoretical predictions. This result is robust...
We assess the long-term financial returns from high-quality collectible real assets, and review the unique risks that are associated with such investments. Over the period 1900-2012, art, stamps, and musical instruments (violins) have appreciated at an average annual rate of 6.4%-6.9% in nominal terms, or 2.4%-2.8% in real terms. Despite the simila...
Using historical price records for Premiers Crus Bordeaux, we examine the impact of aging on wine prices and the long-term investment performance of fine wine. In line with the predictions of an illustrative model, young maturing wines from high-quality vintages provide the highest financial returns. Past maturity, famous châteaus deliver growing n...
Individuals' economic attitudes are frequently observed to vary in a systematic manner with religious affiliation or religiosity. As a consequence, religion is also correlated with a range of financial-economic outcomes. Research has established the importance of religion at the macro-economic level, and has shown that the religious environment may...
This note examines the investment performance of diamonds and other gems (sapphires, rubies, and emeralds) over the period 1999-2010, using a novel data set of auction transactions. Over our time frame, the annualized real USD returns for white and colored diamonds equaled 6.4% and 2.9%, respectively. Since 2003, the average returns have been 10.0%...
This paper investigates the price determinants and investment performance of art. We apply a hedonic regression analysis to a new data set of more than one million auction transactions of paintings and works on paper. Based on the resulting price index, we conclude that art has appreciated in value by a moderate 3.97% per year, in real U.S. dollar...
We investigate the differences in economic attitudes and financial decisions between religious and non-religious households. Using Dutch survey data, we find that religious households consider themselves more trusting, and have a stronger bequest motive and a longer planning horizon. Furthermore, Catholics attach more importance to thrift and are m...
This paper examines the investment performance of diamonds and other gems (sapphires, rubies, and emeralds) over the period 1999–2010, using a novel data set of auction transactions. Between 1999 and 2010, the annualized real USD returns for white and colored diamonds equaled 6.4% and 2.9%, respectively. Since 2003, the returns were 10.0%, 5.5%, an...
This paper uses stamp catalogue prices to investigate the returns on British collectible postage stamps over the period 1900–2008. We find an annualized return on stamps of 7.0% in nominal terms, or 2.9% in real terms. These returns are higher than those on bonds but below those on equities. The volatility of stamp prices approaches that of equitie...
This paper investigates the impact of equity markets and top incomes on art prices. Using a newly constructed art market index, we demonstrate that equity market returns have had a significant impact on the price level in the art market over the last two centuries. We also find evidence that an increase in income inequality may lead to higher price...
This note briefly describes three performance measures that can be used in business failure prediction models: the unweighted error rate (UER), D-max and the Gini-coefficient. The use of these measures (and the mathematical relationship between them) is illustrated with numerical examples. We hope that this note may help the reader to better unders...
This paper investigates the prices and the returns in the market for modern Russian art, a prime example of an ‘emerging art market’, over the last four decades. After applying a hedonic regression model on an extensive dataset containing 52,154 sales by 410 Russian artists, we show that the reputation of the artist, the strength of the attribu...
In the United States, religious attendance rises sharply with education across individuals, but religious attendance declines sharply with education across denominations. This puzzle is explained if education both increases the returns to social connection and reduces the extent of religious belief, and if beliefs are closely linked to denomination...
When-issued trading concerns transactions in securities that have not yet been issued. This paper investigates the Dutch “grey
market” for when-issued shares prior to stock splits, using a unique hand-collected data set. Market makers are more likely
to set up a when-issued market when the underlying firm is larger, the relative trading volume of t...
This note briefly describes some important performance measures that can be used in failure prediction research. We do not only give an overview of the measures, but also clarify the connections between them and illustrate their use with numerical examples.
We give an overview of the shortcomings of the most frequently used statistical techniques in failure prediction modelling. The statistical procedures that underpin the selection of variables and the determination of coefficients often lead to ‘overfitting’. We also see that the ‘expected signs’ of variables are sometimes neglected and that an unde...
Deze studie heeft als primaire doel de evolutie van de financiële gezondheid van de Belgische ondernemingen over een periode van 10 jaar in kaart te brengen. Het is de voortzetting van de jaarlijkse uitgave “De financiële toestand van de Belgische ondernemingen” (laatste editie: Ooghe, Spaenjers en Vandermoere, 2005). De studie loopt over het tijds...
Inleiding Sinds het einde van de jaren '60 is falingspredictie een van de belangrijkste onderzoeksdomeinen binnen de corporate finance. Bijna veertig jaar geleden legden Beaver (1967) en Altman (1968) met enkele papers inzake het gebruik van financiële ratio's de basis van een vernieuwde interesse in deze ietwat bijzondere tak binnen de bedrijfseco...
This paper documents that international market segmentation a¤ects the price formation of luxury assets. Using data from more than one million auction sales, I construct art price indices spanning from the early 1970s to 2007 for 13 di¤erent countries. The variation across countries in annualized returns is substantial. I …nd that art prices are im...
The seminal work of J.B. Jefferys highlighted two unusual features of the Victorian equity market, namely high share denomination and uncalled capital. This paper examines the extent to which publicly-traded company stocks had these features. It also analyses the effect of these features on stock returns using monthly data for the London stock mark...
Citations
... Namun dalam pelaksanaan transaksi jual beli seperti BBA terdapat risiko yang dapat menyebabkan terjadinya kerugian seperti adanya wanprestasi atau penundaan pembayaran [7] [8] [9]. Hal tersebut tidak sejalan dengan hukum Islam (syariah) yang dimana tidak ada satu pihak yang dapat mengalami kerugian baik pemberi pembiaayan maupun penerimanya [10] [11] [12]. ...
... In addition to the literature summarized above, much of the quantitative financial art literature treats artist reputation in a static way, approximating it simply through artist fixed effects (Aubry et al., 2023;Chanel & Gérard-Varet, 1996;de la Barre, Docclo, & Ginsburgh, 1994;Etro & Pagani, 2013;Ma, Noussair, & Renneboog, 2022;Marinelli & Palombo, 2011;Renneboog & Spaenjers, 2011;Sproule & Valsan, 2006). Artist fixed effects, however, capture all uncontrolled price-influencing factors that are constant and artist dependent. ...
... Second, we advance the literature on real assets (see Goetzmann et al., 2021). This includes the valuation of collectables (Dimson et al., 2023;Dimson & Spaenjers, 2011;Korteweg et al., 2016;Masset & Henderson, 2010;Renneboog & Spaenjers, 2013), real estate (Giglio et al., 2015), and on auction markets (Aubry et al., 2023;Lovo & Spaenjers, 2018). ...
... Thus, from an intergenerational perspective we view these are reinforcing or complementary markers of (dis)advantage. Whilst major homeownership and education expansion took place in different time periods (the former in the 1930s, 1950s and 1960s, and the latter starting in the 1960s), for most of the 20th and 21st century homeowners have experienced positive returns to housing wealth (Chambers et al., 2021). The expansion of tertiary education beginning in the 1960s was predominantly taken up by individuals from relatively affluent backgrounds and has been partly attributable for the wage polarisation observed in the U.K. in the 1970s and 1980s but not after this period (Machin, 2011;Blundell et al., 2022), allowing graduates to purchase housing in relatively more desirable areas, often major cities where highpaying jobs are located. ...
... There is scope for much more work in this area, in particular as new empirical work documents the variation in preferences (Cvijanović, Milcheva, and van de Minne 2020) or in transaction prices (Spaenjers and Steiner 2020) across different investor types in the commercial real estate space. ...
Reference: Real and Private-Value Assets
... Asymmetric information Miller et al. (1988); Lambson et al. (2004) Bargaining Ihlanfeldt and Mayock (2012); Cvijanović and Spaenjers (2021) but also movements in the yen-dollar exchange rate. Using a sample of relatively homogeneous residential properties from a large development in Chengdu, China to mitigate omitted variable bias, Zhou et al. (2015) find support for both the information asymmetry and anchoring hypotheses. ...
... The research here connects to a growing literature interested generally in returns to assets over time, e.g. Jordà et al. (2019), as well as work specifically on housing and real estate prices over the long run; see, for example, Chambers et al. (2019), Eichholtz et al. (2019), Eichholtz et al. (2020) and Offer (2014) for specific examples, as well as Knoll et al. (2017) for a discussion of sale prices globally since the mid-nineteenth century. It is also related to work on housing returns and user cost, such as Eisfeldt and Demers (2015), who examine total returns for single-family housing in the US in the 2010s, and Himmelberg et al. (2005), who incorporate user cost to reassess the performance of housing prices across U.S. cities in the decade to 2005. ...
... Our study adds to the growing literature on the China shock to global housing markets, drawing inferences from the primary destination of mainland China's capital outflow, Hong Kong (Gorback and Keys, 2020;Li et al., 2021;Pavlov and Somerville, 2020). Our evidence shows that migrant buyers residing in the host country/region, as opposed to outof-town investors (Badarinza and Ramadorai, 2018;Cvijanovi c and Spaenjers, 2021), also display strong hedging motives, which contributes to their price premiums in the Hong Kong housing market. We acknowledge the data limitation on identifying the exact types of mainland buyers (migrant or out-of-town investors) and leave it for future studies. ...
... The graph shows strong price rises since the late 1950s. The figure also shows the timing of transactions that set a new world record price (in nominal GBP) for art at auction, based on Spaenjers et al. (2015). We see many more of these record-breaking transactions in recent decades. ...
... Second, we advance the literature on real assets (see Goetzmann et al., 2021). This includes the valuation of collectables (Dimson et al., 2023;Dimson & Spaenjers, 2011;Korteweg et al., 2016;Masset & Henderson, 2010;Renneboog & Spaenjers, 2013), real estate (Giglio et al., 2015), and on auction markets (Aubry et al., 2023;Lovo & Spaenjers, 2018). To the best of our knowledge, we run the first cross-sectional study of real asset returns. ...