Christoph Strasser’s research while affiliated with BIOENERGY 2020+ GmbH and other places

Empirical analyses of interlinkages and price dependencies in the forest-based sector support the forecast of market developments and the design of efficient utilization pathways. This article aims at analysing price cointegration between roundwood (sawlogs, pulpwood), sawmill by-products (sawdust, wood chips) and wood products (pellets, particle board) in the forest-based sector in Austria. Monthly price data for the period 2005–2019 were used for the following statistical tests: (1) The Augmented-Dickey-Fuller and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests were conducted to investigate stationarity of the data; (2) The Johansen Cointegration test was pairwise applied to price time series; (3) The Granger Causality test was used for cointegrated time series to examine which one is price leading. Furthermore, sawmill by-product prices were modelled as Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to analyse their common behaviour. The dataset was divided to a training (2005–2017) and test (2018–2019) subset to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The training data were used to estimate a VAR model as basis for forecasts, which were compared to the test data. Results show that sawdust prices are cointegrated and thus modelled with pellet and particle board prices. In contrast, wood chips are used for several applications and thus prices are cointegrated and modelled with prices of sawlogs, pulpwood, pellets and particle board. The comparison with the test data showed that forecasts were able to predict data from 2018 to 2019 well. However, a decrease in prices, starting in 2019 and intensified by the Covid-19 pandemic, could not be fully captured by these forecasts.

A transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is provoked in European and national policies. Sustainable energy provision has to be aligned with other environmental, social and economic targets, such as air quality or energy security policies, as well. Hence, transition pathways have to be assessed on a broad basis. One potential measure to contribute to EU 2030 targets could be a replacement of heating oil boilers by pellet boilers. In the case of Austria, more than 700,000 heating oil boilers were installed in 2014, from which nearly 50% were older than 20 years. The aim of this analysis is to assess such potential replacements until 2030 and respective environmental impacts. An econometric market model of pellet demand, supply and installed pellet boiler capacity is used to forecast boiler replacements and respective fuel demand. The environmental impacts are assessed by comparing the replacements by either pellet boilers or oil-fired condensing boilers. The results show that 41,350-116,021 old heating oil boilers could be replaced by pellet boilers until 2030, depending on market developments considered in the different forecast scenarios. The reductions of Greenhouse Gas emissions and fossil fuel demand range from 3 Mt to 5.7 Mt CO2-equivalent and from 37.4 PJ to 72 PJ until 2030, respectively. Other environmental impacts such as Tropospheric Ozone Precursor Potential and Human Toxicity increase clearly, while the Acidification Potential increases slightly. Trade-offs between different environmental EU policies, i.e. the EU 2030 targets and the EU Air Policy, may arise by a transition towards wood pellet heating fuels. Austria's energy dependence from countries outside the EU could be reduced due to less fuel imports as well.

In the Austrian project UseCO2 – Utilisation of CO2 from industry experts from research institutes, universities, iron and steel industry and energy sector developed novel concepts for CO2 utilisation. For the conversion of CO2 to value added products a large number of different thermochemical and biotechnological pathways exist. The project identified interesting value chains for the utilisation of CO2 from industry and evaluated pathways with regard to scalability, possible products, technology readiness, economics and potential international markets.

Background andObjectives •Involvement of Stakeholders •BIOGRACE II Tool -Purposeof Tool -Feature of thecompletetool -UsingtheExcel GHG calculationtool -Standard values -Resultsof thecalculation -Status of GHG calculations •Project „Assessment of Sustainability in Biomass Energy Systems”

EU bioenergy policies and oil price hikes have resulted in a significant increase of installed pellet boilers for residential heating. Hence, European demand for wood pellets has been growing faster and more steadily than supply leading to rising market prices in recent years. This article presents an econometric analysis of demand and supply of wood pellets in the residential heating sector in Austria, one of the most dynamic markets for residential pellets. Annual and monthly time series data between 2000 and 2014 are used in a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) regression to estimate supply and demand elasticities of wood pellets. In all model specifications, pellets demand is found to be inelastic (from −0.66 to −0.76) and pellets supply unit-elastic (from 1.03 to 1.18). Thus, consumers are highly exposed to price changes resulting from supply shocks. Policies which support investments in pellet boilers will shift the demand of wood pellets and likely leading to higher prices for consumers.

The growing demand in wood pellets has driven up market prices and has accelerated market dynamics in recent years. This article presents an econometric analysis of factors influencing demand and supply of wood pellets in the residential heating sector in Austria. Time series data on prices, quantities, imports and exports between 2000 and 2014 are used in a two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression. Pellets demand is found to be inelastic (−0.67) and pellets supply unit-elastic (1.16). Thus, consumers are highly exposed to price changes resulting from supply shocks.