Chris T. Bauch's research while affiliated with University of Waterloo and other places
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Publications (34)
In the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, it became clear that pandemic waves and population responses were locked in a mutual feedback loop. The initial lull following strict interventions in the first wave often led to a second wave, as restrictions were relaxed. We test the ability of new hybrid machine learning techniques, namely universal...
We investigate how representations of Syrian refugees (2011-2021) differ across US partisan news outlets. We analyze 47,388 articles from the online US media about Syrian refugees to detail differences in reporting between left- and right-leaning media. We use various NLP techniques to understand these differences. Our polarization and question ans...
Background
The duration and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic depends in a large part on individual and societal actions which is influenced by the quality and salience of the information to which they are exposed. Unfortunately, COVID-19 misinformation has proliferated. To date, no systematic efforts have been made to evaluate interventions that mit...
Stochasticity is often associated with negative consequences for population dynamics since a population may die out due to random chance during periods when population size is very low (stochastic fade-out). Here we develop a coupled social-ecological model based on stochastic differential equations that includes natural expansion and harvesting of...
Background
Open online forums like Reddit provide an opportunity to quantitatively examine COVID-19 vaccine perceptions early in the vaccine timeline. We examine COVID-19 misinformation on Reddit following vaccine scientific announcements, in the initial phases of the vaccine timeline.
Methods
We collected all posts on Reddit (reddit.com) from Jan...
In this paper, we establish a three-layer coupled network model to analyze the co-evolution of negative vaccine-related information, vaccination behavior, and epidemic spread. The three layers are used to represent negative vaccine-related information dissemination, vaccination behavior diffusion and epidemic propagation, respectively. The comprehe...
The duration and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic depends largely on individual and societal actions which are influenced by the quality and salience of the information to which they are exposed. Unfortunately, COVID-19 misinformation has proliferated. Despite growing attempts to mitigate COVID-19 misinformation, there is still uncertainty regarding...
Background: Open online forums like Reddit provide an opportunity to quantitatively examine COVID-19 vaccine perceptions early in the vaccine timeline. We examine COVID-19 misinformation on Reddit following vaccine scientific announcements, in the initial phases of the vaccine timeline.
Methods: We collected all posts on Reddit from January 1 2020...
Decision-making about pandemic mitigation often relies upon simulation modelling. Models of disease transmission through networks of contacts–between individuals or between population centres–are increasingly used for these purposes. Real-world contact networks are rich in structural features that influence infection transmission, such as tightly-k...
Overfishing has the potential to severely disrupt coral reef ecosystems worldwide, while harvesting at more sustainable levels instead can boost fish yield without damaging reefs. The dispersal abilities of reef species mean that coral reefs form highly connected environments, and the viability of reef fish populations depends on spatially explicit...
Objective:
The analysis estimates projected population outcomes resulting from the introduction of a plant-derived influenza vaccine formulated as quadrivalent virus-like particles (QVLP) in Canada.
Methods:
Using Monte Carlo simulations, the number of influenza cases, general practitioner visits, inpatient admissions, intensive care unit (ICU)...
Objectives:
As COVID-19 vaccinations accelerate in many countries, narratives skeptical of vaccination have also spread through social media. Open online forums like Reddit provide an opportunity to quantitatively examine COVID-19 vaccine perceptions over time. We examine COVID-19 misinformation on Reddit following vaccine scientific announcements....
Background: The duration and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic depends in a large part on individual and societal actions which is influenced by the quality and salience of the information to which they are exposed. Unfortunately, COVID-19 misinformation has proliferated. To date, no systematic efforts have been made to evaluate interventions that mi...
Many natural systems exhibit regime shifts where slowly changing environmental conditions suddenly shift the system to a new and sometimes very different state. As the tipping point is approached, the dynamics of complex and varied systems all simplify down to a small number of possible 'normal forms' that determine how the new regime will look. In...
Simulation models from the early COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the urgency of applying non-pharmacetical interventions (NPIs), but had limited empirical data to use. Here we use data from 2020-2021 to retrospectively model the impact of NPIs. Our model represents age groups and census division in Ontario, Canada, and is parameterised with epidemiol...
The results of COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials suggest that an end to the pandemic is within reach. However, public health authorities worldwide are faced with the difficult task of prioritizing their allocation. Theory indicates that prioritizing vaccination of individuals with more contacts can be disproportionately effective. However, implement...
After vaccinating health care workers and vulnerable groups against COVID-19, authorities will need to decide how to vaccinate everyone else. Prioritising individuals with more contacts can be disproportionately effective, in theory, but identifying these individuals is difficult. Here we show that the technology underlying Bluetooth exposure notif...
Vaccines and climate change have much in common. In both cases, a scientific consensus contrasts with a divided public opinion. They also exemplify coupled human-environment systems involving common pool resources. Here we used machine learning algorithms to analyze the sentiment of 87 million tweets on climate change and vaccines in order to chara...
Biogeochemistry has an important role to play in many environmental issues of current concern related to global change and air, water, and soil quality. However, reliable predictions and tangible take-up of solutions offered by biogeochemistry will need further integration of disciplines. Here, we emphasize how further developing ties between biolo...
Theory and observation tell us that many complex systems exhibit tipping points—thresholds involving an abrupt and irreversible transition to a contrasting dynamical regime. Such events are commonly referred to as critical transitions. Current research seeks to develop early warning signals (EWS) of critical transitions that could help prevent unde...
Decision-making about pandemic mitigation often relies upon mathematical modelling. Models of contact networks are increasingly used for these purposes, and are often appropriate for infections that spread from person to person. Real-world human contact networks are rich in structural features that influence infection transmission, such as tightly-...
Theoretical models are typically developed through a deductive process where a researcher formulates a system of dynamic equations from hypothesized mechanisms, for instance. However, recent advances in algorithmic methods are designed to discover sparse dynamic models inductively--directly from data--using minimal prior system knowledge. Most prev...
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been shown to be highly effective in reducing the risk of HIV infection in gay and bisexual men who have sex with men (GbMSM). However, PrEP does not protect against other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). In some populations, PrEP has also led to riskier behaviour such as reduced condom usage, with the res...
The emergence and prevalence of cooperative behavior within a group of selfish individuals remains
a puzzle for evolutionary game theory precisely because it conflicts directly with the central idea of
natural selection. Accordingly, in recent years, the search for an understanding of how cooperation
can be stimulated, even when it conflicts with i...
Dynamic transmission models of influenza are sometimes used in decision-making to identify which vaccination strategies might best reduce influenza-associated health burdens. Our goal was to use laboratory confirmed influenza cases to fit model parameters in an age-structured, two-type (influenza A/B) dynamic model of influenza. We compared the fit...
Infectious disease interventions like contact precautions and vaccination have proven effective in disease control and elimination. The priority given to interventions can depend strongly on how virulent the pathogen is, and interventions may also depend partly for their success on social processes that respond adaptively to disease dynamics. Howev...
Infectious disease interventions like contact precautions and vaccination have proven effective in disease control and elimination. The priority given to interventions can depend strongly on how virulent the pathogen is, and interventions may also depend partly for their success on social processes that respond adaptively to disease dynamics. Howev...
Early warning signals of sudden regime shifts are a widely studied phenomenon for their ability to quantify a system's proximity to a tipping point to a new and contrasting dynamical regime. However, this effect has been little studied in the context of the complex interactions between disease dynamics and vaccinating behaviour. Our objective was t...
Scientific publication is immensely important to the scientific endeavour. There is, however, concern that rewarding scientists chiefly on publication creates a perverse incentive, allowing careless and fraudulent conduct to thrive, compounded by the predisposition of top-tier journals towards novel, positive findings rather than investigations con...
Agri-food trade networks are increasingly vital to human well-being in a globalising world. Models can help us gain insights into trade network dynamics and predict how they might respond to future disturbances such as extreme weather events. Here we develop a preferential attachment (PA) network model of the global wheat trade network. We find tha...
The scientific endeavor pivots on the accurate reporting of experimental and theoretical findings, and consequently scientific publication is immensely important. As the number of active scientists continues to increase, there is concern that rewarding scientists chiefly on publication creates a perverse incentive where careless and fraudulent rese...
Citations
... As a result, research communities devote a great deal of attention to the study of news bias [5,6,7]. However, the first step in conducting such a study is to identify it [8,9]. Although the task may appear trivial, it is in fact challenging as bias can manifest itself at different levels in complex ways [10]. ...
... We will exclude non-English studies as previous studies have shown that it had a minimal effect on the overall conclusions [12,13]. Correspondences, commentaries, editorials, and case reports will be excluded. ...
... Our model uses simplifying assumptions and is just a first step toward a more sophisticated eco-evolutionary model [29,30]. Still, we strongly believe that our results provide valuable insights in designing control mechanisms. ...
Reference: Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics of Bimatrix Games
... During the COVID-19 pandemic and Monkeypox outbreak, Reddit 2 has been used as one of the vital sources of public discourse analysis [16][17] [18]. The proposed study uses Reddit comments to respond and add knowledge to our understanding of the global measles outbreak. ...
... Ye et al. [42] proposed a heterogeneous epidemic-behavior-information transmission model, focusing on the impact of risk perception and behavioral changes on epidemic transmission. Yin et al. [43] constructed an information-behavior-epidemic three-layer network model that discussed the influence of negative vaccine-related information, vaccination behavior on epidemic transmission, and their results showed that this three-layer network structure could better describe the heterogeneity of real networks, and that factors related to vaccination behavior greatly influenced the epidemic transmission. ...
... Other theories or perspectives to understand misinformation include systematic review and bibliometric [2,[31][32][33][34][35]. ...
... Yang et al. [20] propose a flow-based edge betweenness measure to minimize the p-norm of the flow between communities in the network. They show that the bridge-based methods are superior to degree-based intervention methods. ...
... The VLPs mimic virus morphology but lack infectious genomic material [23], and their small size and the repetitive epitope patterns on their surfaces trigger a strong immune response [24]. These qualities make VLPs strong candidates for vaccine development, and it has been shown that a plant-based quadrivalent VLP influenza vaccine provides better protection than egg-based vaccines in humans [25]. A wide range of plant-based VLPs (including hepatitis B virus, influenza virus, human-and bovine-papillomavirus, bluetongue virus, norovirus, and cowpea mosaic virus) have been shown to elicit protective immune responses in animal models, and have been evaluated as vaccine candidates or for novel delivery systems [26]. ...
... For this, we took a random sample of 300 time series of length 2000 time steps taken backwards from a distance of 10 timesteps before the CT from the considered simulated systems and labelled them with a '1' as undergoing a CT. These time series were analysed with a rolling window of size 100 in respect to the EWS-indicators autocorrelation-at-lag-1 (AC-1), standard deviation (STD), and the peak in the power spectrum (Smax) (see for the same procedure (Bury et al., 2021)) and in respect to the LSTM-certainty (that is, its indication for the probability of seeing the highest α-category). To assess the indication of an imminent CT, the Kendall τ value, which serves as a measure of increasing or decreasing trend (Chen et al., 2020), was computed over the resulting indicator curves. ...
... For a quantitative sense of how β responds to mobility, we evaluated each trained network at the baseline value of mobility to determine the value of β, and hence R 0 (= β/γ), the basic reproduction number of the virus at the baseline value of mobility. We also applied Newton's method to the trained neural network to find the value of mobility (M crit ) at which R 0 drops below 1, the value below which the infection will die out [56]. Results for the biased model can be found in table Section 2.4 Table 2. ...