Charlie Wilson's research while affiliated with University of Oxford and other places
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Publications (75)
To aid diffusion of low carbon digital products and services…overcoming discontinuance is crucial! Experience of an innovation and its attributes are important determinants of post-adoption decisions. Notably, we found discontinuance of services more likely than products, highlighting the vulnerability of service-based innovation providers and the...
Digital consumer innovations offer low-carbon alternatives to mainstream consumption practices. Examples include smart home technologies for controlling heating, lighting and appliances and domestic electricity generation with storage for co-ordinating personal consumption and peak demand.
Whilst innovation literature predominantly focuses on proc...
Digital consumer innovations exist which offer low carbon alternatives to mainstream consumption practices. We contribute new insights on the importance of social influence in the uptake of low carbon digital consumer innovations across domains: mobility, food, homes, energy. Using the well established Diffusion of Innovations theory as a framework...
Countries’ emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement have significant implications for lifestyles. National planning to meet emission targets is based on modelling and analysis specific to individual countries, whereas global integrated assessment models provide scenario projections in a consistent framework but with less granular ou...
The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand re...
A synthesis report from the SILCI project which was funded for 4.5 years by the European Research Council (#678799) to investigate the role of social influence on low-carbon
consumer innovations. We collected data using surveys, market studies, interviews, focus
groups, workshops, choice experiments, historical archives, and systematic literature r...
Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive syn...
The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. However, how a post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here, we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the demand-side effect on final energy and GHG emissions. Our pathways p...
Consumer-facing digital innovations with the potential to reduce carbon emissions often exist in small market niches and their impact has been limited thus far. Using the established Diffusion of innovations theory which considers interpersonal communication amongst social networks to be a vital mechanism for exchanging information, we conducted an...
Digitalization has opened up a wealth of new goods and services with strong consumer appeal alongside potential emission-reduction benefits. Examples range from shared, on-demand electric mobility and peer-to-peer trading of electricity, food, and cars to grid-responsive smart appliances and heating systems. In this review, we identify an illustrat...
Novel consumer goods and services in mobility, food, homes and energy domains are needed to help mitigate climate change. Appealing attributes of low carbon innovations accelerate their diffusion out of early-adopting segments into the mass market [1,2][1], [2]. In this paper we synthesise insights on the attributes of low carbon consumer innovatio...
Scenarios are the primary tool for examining how current decisions shape the future, but the future is affected as much by out-of-ordinary extremes as by generally expected trends. Energy modellers can study extremes both by incorporating them directly within models and by using complementary off-model analyses.
In the framework of the Paris Agreement, the European Union (EU) will have to firmly set decarbonization targets to 2050. However, the viability on these targets is an ongoing discussion. The European Commission has made several propositions for energy and climate “roadmaps”. In this regard, this paper contributes by analyzing alternative pathways...
The concept of experience curves is normally applied to analyze cost or price developments of technologies, but studies have shown that the concept can also be extended to other applications and fields. In this chapter, we show the application of experience curves to analyze energy use in industrial processes, energy demand of household appliances...
A systemic perspective on energy innovation is required to design effective portfolios of directed innovation activity. We contribute a standardised set of technology-specific indicators which describe processes throughout the energy technology innovation system, ranging from patents and publications to policy mixes, collaborative activity, and mar...
We develop a novel approach for quantitatively analysing future storylines of change by combining econometric analysis and Monte Carlo simulation for four different storylines of change in the EU's energy innovation system. We explore impacts on three key innovation outcomes: patenting (innovation), co-invention (collaboration), and technology cost...
A report compiled within the H2020 project SET-Nav (work package 9, deliverable D9.5) www.set-nav.eu. Project Coordinator: Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien) Work Package Coordinator: NTNU
Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuels and industry increased by 2.2% per year on average between 2005 and 2015¹. Global emissions need to peak and decline rapidly to limit climate change to well below 2 °C of warming2,3, which is one of the goals of the Paris Agreement⁴. Untangling the reasons underlying recent changes in emiss...
This paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5 °C. First, we show that global integrated assessment models which characterise transformation pathways consistent with 1.5 °C mitigation are limited in their ability to analyse the emergence of novelty in energy end-us...
Smart homes are a priority area of strategic energy planning and national policy. The market adoption of smart home technologies (SHTs) relies on prospective users perceiving clear benefits with acceptable levels of risk. This paper characterises the perceived benefits and risks of SHTs from multiple perspectives. A representative national survey o...
The transition to electric vehicles is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars. Modelling future pathways helps identify critical drivers and uncertainties. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been used extensively to analyse climate mitigation policy. IAMs emphasise technological change processes...
Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and autom...
Implementing the Paris agreement to prevent dangerous climate change requires energy system transformation and rapid diffusion of low-carbon innovations. In this paper we investigate both the temporal and spatial dynamics of formative phases by which energy technologies prepare for growth. Drawing on a review of diverse literatures, we offer a defi...
Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in t...
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are computer-based instruments used to assess the implications of human activity on the human and earth system. They are simultaneously also used to explore possible response strategies to climate change. As IAMs operate simplified representations of real-world processes within their model structures, they have b...
National domestic energy-efficiency policies are unlikely to be implemented in a geographically uniform manner. This paper demonstrates the importance of socioeconomic, contextual, and local policy conditions in shaping the spatially heterogeneous response to a national policy. Through an assessment of the geographical and temporal variation in dom...
Understanding homeowners' renovation decisions is essential for policy and business activity to improve the efficiency of owner-occupied housing stock. This paper develops, validates and applies a novel modelling framework for explaining renovation decisions, with an emphasis on energy efficiency measures. The framework is tested using quantitative...
This perspective article considers the potential for disruptive innovations to transform the market for energy-related goods and services in line with emission reductions required for stringent mitigation. Its rationale is that consumers are a neglected constituency in societal efforts to meet climate policy objectives. First, I review Christensen'...
In this chapter we focus on a specific theme that is central to research on SHTs: control. The potential benefits of SHTs are dependent on householders having more and finer-grained control over their appliances, homes and even their everyday lives and routines. Diving deeper into the qualitative interview material introduced in Chap. 5, we interro...
Through a systematic analysis of peer-reviewed literature, this chapter takes stock of the dominant research themes on smart homes and their users, and the linkages and disconnects between these themes. Key findings within each of nine themes are analysed in three groups: (1) views of the smart home—functional, instrumental, socio-technical; (2) us...
This chapter draws on in-depth qualitative data to explore how 10 households domesticated smart home technologies (SHTs) over a nine month period as part of the SHT field trial described in Chap. 1. The analysis is situated within the socio-technical view of smart homes and their users in our analytical framework (Table 2.1). We explore the co-evol...
In this chapter we synthesise the main findings from the four empirical chapters and summarise the arguments and themes developed throughout the book. These illustrate the importance of research that integrates across functional, instrumental and socio-technical views of smart homes and their users. These cross-cutting themes have important implica...
The instrumental view of smart homes and their users is premised on active management of energy demand contributing to energy system objectives. In this chapter we explore a novel way of using data from smart home technologies (SHTs) to link energy consumption in homes to daily activities. We use activities as a descriptive term for the common ways...
This chapter introduces the book, its rationale and objectives, and the new data sources on which much of the analysis is based. Smart home technologies (SHTs) are now commercially available amid the promise of a smart home future. But there is a dearth of informed research on the users and use of SHTs in real domestic settings. This book is one of...
This chapter characterises the perceived benefits and risks of smart home technologies (SHTs) from multiple perspectives. A representative national survey of over a thousand UK homeowners finds prospective users have positive perceptions of the multiple functionality of SHTs including energy management. Ceding autonomy and independence in the home...
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the consistency of directed innovation activity in the EU with the priority areas set out in the SET Plan. We apply the Energy Technology Innovation System framework to evaluate the distribution of directed innovation efforts between the SET Plan priority areas in 2015. First, we review relevant literature on in...
Perceived status can affect the diffusion of pro-environmental behaviors and sustainable consumption. However, the status of different forms of sustainable consumption has not been adequately explored. Previous studies suggest that curtailment behaviors are associated with low or neutral status, while efficiency behaviors are associated with high s...
Smart homes are a priority area of strategic energy planning and national policy. The market adoption of smart home technologies (SHTs) relies on prospective users perceiving clear benefits with acceptable levels of risk. This paper characterises the perceived benefits and risks of SHTs from multiple perspectives. A representative national survey o...
Smart homes promise to significantly enhance domestic comfort, convenience, security and leisure whilst simultaneously reducing energy use through optimized home energy management. Their ability to achieve these multiple aims rests fundamentally on how they are used by householders, yet very little is currently known about this topic. The few studi...
Smart home technologies promise to transform domestic comfort, convenience, security and leisure while also reducing energy use. But delivering on these potentially conflicting promises depends on how they are adopted and used in homes.
This book starts by developing a new analytical framework for understanding smart homes and their users. Drawing...
Benjamin Sovacool (2016) has provided interesting food for thought in asking “how long will it take?” for the unfolding of energy transitions. Historical evidence of “grand” or global energy system transitions taking decades to centuries to unfold contrasted with highly selective recent and rapid examples of mostly incremental technological change...
Innovation processes during the early period of a technology’s development establish the conditions for widespread commercialization. For comparative analysis of innovation processes across technologies, a common operational definition of the formative phase is needed. This paper develops a set of indicators to measure the start and end points of f...
This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment
models aiming for the 2 �C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can
provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The
analysis focuses specifically on the rates of c...
Reducing old-housing-stock gas emissions is of importance given their major contribution to global warming. For instance, old housing stock generates >40% of the UK’s total gas emissions. Homeowner decisions to reduce energy consumption through home renovations are thus at the heart of success for such sustainability. In this paper we examine the d...
Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover pattern...
Published research on smart homes and their users is growing exponentially, yet a clear understanding of who these users are and how they might use smart home technologies is missing from a field being overwhelmingly pushed by technology developers. Through a systematic analysis of peer-reviewed literature on smart homes and their users, this paper...
Introduction The aim of the present endeavor is to experiment regarding the further advancement of integrated discrete choice and latent variable (ICVL) models using alternative factorial structures' conceptualizations and do so at both Single Level (Level 0) but also Multilevel (ML-ICVL). In doing, specific independent variables were selected that...
The latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of
emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay
below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate
significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on
net negative emissions in the longer term.
Mitigating climate change requires directed innovation efforts to
develop and deploy energy technologies. Innovation activities are
directed towards the outcome of climate protection by public
institutions, policies and resources that in turn shape market
behaviour. We analyse diverse indicators of activity throughout the
innovation system to asses...
The 20th century has witnessed wholesale transformation in the energy system marked by the pervasive diffusion of both energy supply and end-use technologies. Just as whole industries have grown, so too have unit sizes or capacities. Analysed in combination, these unit level and industry level growth patterns reveal some consistencies across very d...
This article reviews the concept of an energy technology innovation system (ETIS). The ETIS is a systemic perspective on innovation comprising all aspects of energy transformations (supply and demand); all stages of the technology development cycle; and all the major innovation processes, feedbacks, actors, institutions, and networks. We use it as...
This paper provides a synthesis of current knowledge on the patterns, drivers, and characteristics of historical energy technology transitions. This historical evidence is then compared to the treatment of energy system dynamics in the scenario analysis on climate mitigation. The paper concludes with a discussion of generic implications for clean e...
Recent national trends in investments in global energy research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) are inconsistent around the world. Public RD&D investments in energy are the metric most commonly used in international comparative assessments of energy-technology innovation, and the metric employed in this article. Overall, the data indicate th...
Rationale for a Case Study Approach. Our evolving understanding of energy technology innovation and its systemic nature highlights the importance of contextual factors and the specific characteristics of technologies’ relative advantages, of influential actors and institutions, and of the public policies that support the mobilisation of resources....
A Systemic Perspective on Energy Technology Innovation. Throughout this book, we argue the case for a systemic perspective on energy technology innovation. We set out an analytical framework with all the key elements of the energy technology innovation system. We show how a wide range of historical innovation case studies all validate this innovati...
Guidelines for Innovation Policy. Most of the case studies examined in this book explicitly discuss the role public policy has played in their respective innovation histories. The editors’ guides in each case study distil key lessons learnt for policies to support innovation systems. In this final chapter, these lessons are drawn together and summa...
Authors’ Summary. This case study provides a quantitative overview of the financial resources mobilised globally as fundamental inputs into the energy technology innovation system. Available data from a diverse range of sources are compiled and summarised throughout the innovation life cycle from research and development (R$D) through market format...
Synthesising the Case Studies. The twenty case studies examined in this volume cover a wide range of innovation histories for both energy supply and energy end-use technologies of markedly different characteristics and vintages. The market and policy contexts in which these innovation histories unfold also differ hugely. Yet as the editors’ guides...
Authors’ Summary. Investments in end-use technologies are integral to energy system objectives including climate change mitigation. Across a wide range of future scenarios, reducing energy intensity by improving the efficiency of end-use technologies and supporting their widespread diffusion is a lower-cost and nearer-term complement to decarbonisi...
Citations
... Rwanda's national strategy for green growth and climate resilience reflects a sustainability science approach at the core of its design. Working alongside the knowledge action network on decarbonized societies pursued by Future Earth (Wilson, 2017), Rwanda has not only developed a sound green growth framework but also complemented it with a specially dedicated fund. This approach has been successfully tested through a pilot project on Operationalizing Green Economy Transition in Africa under the UN Environment Programme and GIZ-Germany. ...
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... Climate change is fundamentally related to greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and has become a major global issue [1,2]. Energy consumption is considered to be the major contributor to CO 2 emissions [3]. ...
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... The mitigation potential of lifestyle changes and the related costs (including those of the supporting infrastructure) can also be assessed and compared with those of alternative mitigation strategies and options (addressing Challenges 1 and 2, as mentioned in the previous section). Moreover, lifestyle-led pathways can also account for the potential trade-off between the positive and negative effects that may occur through sustained behavioral changes in the post-COVID world [43,103,104] (e.g., increased teleworking and a lower demand for business trips, reducing transport emissions, counterbalanced by a reduced shift to public transport due to safety concerns). Finally, the results from bottom-up energy-system models relating to shifting consumption patterns in end-use and energy-supply sectors can be integrated to macro-economic general-equilibrium models to assess the effects of lifestyle-induced structural changes on socio-economic variables, such as employment, industrial production, GDP, and trade (addressing Challenge 3 from the previous section). ...
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... For example, Geels et al. (2020) developed socio-technical scenarios based on technological substitution or broader system transformation in which included various interactions between models and multi-level perspectives. Another example is shown in Gambhir et al. (2021), who link technology innovation system analysis to technology costs projections. An extension of the systems thinking field is the introduction of transition dynamics in IAMs, to be able to identify intervention points (Meadows, 2008) that can set off self-reinforcing feedback loops and provide more insight into those factors that balance the system and include lock-in and path dependency that lead to inertia and stable regimes (Geels, 2002;Köhler et al., 2019). ...
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... These tests aid in the detection of faults that are exclusive to a single model or that may necessitate a broad theoretical modification. In experiments, "near-term" trends over a 10-to 30-year time frame and "long-term" patterns over a 100-year time horizon are examined [6]. The IPCC's most recent report employed an ensemble of fifty-five distinct climate models from the fifth phase of the CMIP, or CMIP5. ...
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... Time at home has increased c