Charles Perrings's research while affiliated with Arizona State University and other places
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Publications (212)
Defending against novel, repeated, or unpredictable attacks, while avoiding attacks on the 'self', are the central problems of both mammalian immune systems and computer systems. Both systems have been studied in great detail, but with little exchange of information across the different disciplines. Here, we present a conceptual framework for struc...
Although 30 years have passed since the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) was adopted in 1992, few attempts have been made to evaluate its impact on protected areas. This study investigates the relationship between participation in the CBD and conservation effort in member countries, using an original dataset of 169 countries from 1992 to 20...
Land conversion and the resulting contact between domesticated and wild species has arguably been the single largest contributor to the emergence of novel epizootic and zoonotic diseases in the past century. An unintended consequence of these interactions is zoonotic or epizootic disease spillovers from wild species to humans and their domesticates...
This study models the impact of environmental factors on upward social mobility, where the educational environment is measured by the proportion of college-educated individuals, and social mobility is measured by a change in proportion of people in different income classes. The dynamics of the educational environment is modeled using a modified ver...
Land conversion and the resulting contact between domesticated and wild species has arguably been the single largest contributor to the emergence of novel epizootic and zoonotic diseases in the past century. An unintended consequence of these interactions is zoonotic or epizootic disease spillovers from wild species to humans and their domesticates...
Significance
Why are so many postwar experiments in international governance now being challenged? We consider how polarization of political parties and stakeholders on the issues addressed by international environment agreements affects commitment to those agreements. We also consider how changes in national obligations under agreements affect pol...
We explore the commonalities between methods for assuring the security of computer systems (cybersecurity) and the mechanisms that have evolved through natural selection to protect vertebrates against pathogens, and how insights derived from studying the evolution of natural defenses can inform the design of more effective cybersecurity systems. Mo...
This book explores the process by which people decide to conserve or convert natural resources. Building on a seminal study by Harold Hotelling that connects conservation to expected changes in the value of resources, the authors develop the general principles involved in conservation science. The focus of the book is the resources of the natural e...
Biological and social systems are both characterized by the existence of edges. These include, for example, boundaries between biomes, or ecological communities. In coupled human-natural systems they include anthropogenically determined boundaries between managed and natural systems. Such edges may move due to exogenous changes in environmental con...
The overexploitation of common pool resources is frequently associated with open access regimes in which each resource user operates independently of all other resource users. The outcome is a Nash equilibrium of the prisoner’s dilemma. Restricted access regimes of the sort identified by Ostrom and colleagues typically ensure that individual resour...
A recent study on the impact of mobility controls on the final size of epidemics by Espinoza, Castillo-Chavez, and Perrings (2020) found that mobility restrictions between areas experiencing different levels of disease risk and with different public health infrastructures do not always reduce the final epidemic size. Indeed, restrictions on the mob...
Background
Mobility restrictions—trade and travel bans, border closures and, in extreme cases, area quarantines or cordons sanitaires—are among the most widely used measures to control infectious diseases. Restrictions of this kind were important in the response to epidemics of SARS (2003), H1N1 influenza (2009), Ebola (2014) and, currently in the...
The underprovision of new drugs for Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) affecting more than two billion people is of major concern. Despite the advantages conferred by the 2005 Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, development of new drugs targeting NTDs and their launch in developing countries is slow. We consider the...
We consider the effect of emission charges on market structure, output, and emissions
in Cournot competition. Assuming myopic decision making and a partial adjustment
process, we analyze the impact of emission charges on the stability of duopoly/monopoly
and on the level of emissions. We show that where marginal emission charges are
increasing in t...
The National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration aims to increase the use of native seeds in rehabilitation and restoration projects. This requires the development of a native seed supply industry. This paper examines the challenge of developing native seed supply for Bureau of Land Management (BLM) land holdings in the Colorado Platea...
Biodiversity is declining worldwide, and the costs of biodiversity losses are increasingly being recognized by economists. In this article, we first review the multiple meanings of biodiversity, moving from species richness and simple abundance-weighted species counts to more complex measures that take account of taxonomic distance and functionalit...
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has led to the death or destruction of millions of domesticated and wild birds and caused hundreds of human deaths worldwide. As with other HPAIs, H5N1 outbreaks among poultry have generally been caused by contact with infected migratory waterfowl at the interface of wildlands and human-dominated landsc...
Mobility restrictions - travel advisories, trade and travel bans, border closures and, in extreme cases, area quarantines or cordons sanitaires - are among the most widely used measures to control infectious diseases. Restrictions of this kind were important in the response to epidemics of SARS (2003), H1N1 influenza (2009), and Ebola (2014). Howev...
The production of natural resource based commodities is frequently affected by environmental uncertainty, and the strategic response of producers to uncertainty. We ask when uncertainty induces cooperation. Using a model of Cournot competition under
environmentally-induced price uncertainty, we consider the conditions under which cooperation is fav...
Predicting the impact of natural disasters such as hurricanes on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases poses significant challenges. In this paper, we put forward a simple modelling framework to investigate the impact of heavy rainfall events (HREs) on mosquito-borne disease transmission in temperate areas of the world such as the southe...
Detailed information on data sources.
The public sources of the data used in this study, and how they were acquired, are described.
(DOCX)
In the past two decades, avian influenzas have posed an increasing international threat to human and livestock health. In particular, highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe, leading to the deaths of millions of poultry and hundreds of people. The two main means of international spread are through migratory...
The concept of the Anthropocene is based on the idea that human impacts are now the primary drivers of changes in the earth's systems, including ecological systems. In many cases, the behavior that causes ecosystem change is itself triggered by ecological factors. Yet most ecological models still treat human impacts as given, and frequently as cons...
One effect of the Green Revolution has been the displacement of landraces and traditional livestock strains. Although humankind has historically cultivated more than 7000 species, 15 crops now provide 90% of the world’s food energy intake. The shift from traditional to modern production systems has led to genetic erosion of many crop species, and t...
Chapter 4 "Economic Growth, Human Development, and Welfare" of the 2018 Report of the International Panel on Social Progress (IPSP).
Mission of the IPSP: The International Panel on Social Progress (IPSP) will harness the competence of hundreds of experts about social issues and will deliver a report addressed to all social actors, movements, organ...
The 2001 UK foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic marked a change in global FMD management, focusing less on trade isolation than on biosecurity within countries where FMD is endemic. Post 2001 policy calls for the isolation of disease-free zones in FMD-endemic countries, while increasing the opportunities for trade. The impact of the change on dis...
Near real-time epidemic forecasting approaches are needed to respond to the increasing number of infectious disease outbreaks. In this paper, we retrospectively assess the performance of simple phenomenological models that incorporate early sub-exponential growth dynamics to generate short-term forecasts of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic...
A common external effect of aquaculture is the transmission of infectious diseases to wild fish stocks. A frequently cited example of this is the infection of wild salmon by sea lice from salmon farms. Management of the disease risk to wild salmon populations requires an understanding both of the disease transmission mechanisms and the control ince...
The term tragedy of the commons is widely used to describe
the overexploitation of open access common pool resources.
Open access allows potential resource users to continue to
enter the resource up to the point where rents are exhausted.
The resulting level of resource use is higher than the socially
optimal level. In extreme cases, unlimited entr...
There is growing evidence that wildlife conservation measures have mixed effects on the emergence and spread of zoonotic disease. Wildlife conservation has been found to have both positive (dilution) and negative (contagion) effects. In the case of avian influenza H5N1 in China, the focus has been on negative effects. Lakes and wetlands attracting...
A "cap and trade" style system for managing whale harvests represents a potentially useful approach to resolve the current gridlock in international whale management. The establishment of whale permit markets, open to both whalers and conservationists, could reveal the strength of conservation demand. However, while much is known about demand for w...
This paper investigates the impact of change in sectoral water supply on employment, value-added output, and indirect business tax, in Maricopa County, Arizona using input–output model. We developed extended modified input–output approach that incorporates each source of water as a separate sector, and that allows for substitution between water sou...
Three interrelated world trends may be exacerbating emerging zoonotic risks: income growth, urbanization, and globalization. Income growth is associated with rising animal protein consumption in developing countries, which increases the conversion of wild lands to livestock production, and hence the probability of zoonotic emergence. Urbanization i...
More than two-thirds of all wild capture marine fish stocks are currently being exploited at or beyond the maximum sustainable yield. Many coastal systems, including the mangrove forests and coral reefs that serve as fish nurseries, have been severely depleted through coastal habitat conversion and land-based emissions. Nutrient runoff is responsib...
Infectious animal and plant diseases introduced through international trade in goods and services are a classic example of market externality. The potential harm they do is visited on people other than those engaged in their export or import, and is not taken into account in reaching export or import decisions. The use of economic instruments to in...
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment identified habitat loss due to the extensive growth of agriculture as the primary driver of biodiversity loss. One implication of this is that agricultural intensification has the potential to reduce threats to wild species. In this paper we consider the evidence for differences in the threat to biodiversity pose...
A current concern in the economics of natural resources is the role of adaptation in moderating the economic impact of exogenous changes in the resilience of natural resource systems. We develop a bioeconomic model of the exploitation of a renewable resource that can exist in multiple states. We then use this to consider the value of adaptive over...
Does society benefit from private measures to mitigate infectious disease risks? Since mitigation reduces both peak prevalence and the number of people who fall ill, the answer might appear to be yes. But mitigation also prolongs epidemics and therefore the time susceptible people engage in activities to avoid infection. These avoidance activities...
Economic growth in Central Arizona, as in other semiarid systems characterized by low and variable rainfall, has historically depended on the effectiveness of strategies to manage water supply risks. Traditionally, the management of supply risks includes three elements: hard infrastructures, landscape management within the watershed, and a supporti...
Economic growth in Central Arizona, as in other semiarid systems characterized by low and variable rainfall, has historically depended on the effectiveness of strategies to manage water supply risks. Traditionally, the management of supply risks includes three elements: hard infrastructures, landscape management within the watershed, and a supporti...
In this paper, we develop a multi-group epidemic framework via virtual
dispersal where the risk of infection is a function of the residence time and
local environmental risk. This novel approach eliminates the need to define and
measure contact rates that are used in the traditional multi-group epidemic
models with heterogeneous mixing. We apply th...
Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individ...
An age-old conflict around a seemingly simple question has resurfaced: why do we conserve nature? Contention around this issue has come and gone many times, but in the past several years we believe that it has reappeared as an increasingly acrimonious debate between, in essence, those who argue that nature should be protected for its own sake (intr...
The personal choices affecting the transmission of infectious diseases include the number of contacts an individual makes, and the risk-characteristics of those contacts. We consider whether these different choices have distinct implications for the course of an epidemic. We also consider whether choosing contact mitigation (how much to mix) and af...
Accelerating rates of biodiversity loss have led ecologists to explore the effects of species richness on ecosystem functioning and the flow of ecosystem services. One explanation of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning lies in the spatial insurance hypothesis, which centers on the idea that productivity and stability inc...
This paper reviews the evolution of the field of environment and development over the last two decades. I argue that a central concern of the field has been the relation between natural resource use, income and growth, under the institutional and market conditions that prevail in developing countries. Particular attention is paid to the demographic...
Changes in water availability, and hence price, are expected to be amongst the most disruptive effects of climate change in
many parts of the world. Understanding the capacity of society or consumers to adapt to such changes requires understanding
the responsiveness of water demand to price changes. We estimate the price elasticity of residential w...
One of the most important services provided by forests is the control of erosion. We investigated the value of forest cover in protecting water quality in five urban lakes around Prescott, AZ. We first estimated the role of forest cover in regulating sediment loadings into each lake via a sediment delivery model. We then used 8301 single-family res...
Sustainable development requires that per capita inclusive wealth-produced, human, and natural capital-does not decline over time. We investigate the impact of changes in nitrogen on inclusive wealth. There are two sides to the nitrogen problem. Excess use of nitrogen in some places gives rise to N-pollution, which can cause environmental damage. I...
Any assessment of the value of biodiversity should begin with an account of why one needs to value it and the reasons market values would not be expected to suffice for the purpose. This article discusses this in the context of the ecosystem services that biodiversity supports, along with the market and government failures that encourage resource u...
Agrobiodiversity refers to the variety and variability of living organisms that contribute to food and agriculture in the broadest sense, and that are associated with cultivating crops and rearing animals within ecological complexes. It is further expanded in some contexts to include all the organisms present in an agricultural landscape. Examples...
Ogden and Stallard (1) argue that our estimates of the effect of reforestation on runoff in the Panama Canal watershed (2) are invalid because we use a particular phenomenological runoff model: the US Department of Agriculture–Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (CN) model. The authors claim that the CN model, originally developed t...
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are quite diverse in terms of various development metrics, but are uniformly vulnerable both to macroeconomic shocks and to changes in the biodiversity that supports fisheries and tourism. This special section assembles a set of papers that analyze international demand for the natural resources associated with...
This paper estimates the value of water rights in a rapidly urbanizing semi-arid area: Phoenix, Arizona. To do this we use hedonic pricing to explore the impact of water rights on property values in 151 agricultural land transactions that occurred between 2001 and 2005. We test two main hypotheses: (1) that the marginal willingness to pay for water...
Land cover change in watersheds affects the supply of a number of ecosystem services, including water supply, the production of timber and nontimber forest products, the provision of habitat for forest species, and climate regulation through carbon sequestration. The Panama Canal watershed is currently being reforested to protect the dry-season flo...
Watershed functions are among the ecosystem services thought to be most at risk from deforestation, but they are not the only functions affected. Deforestation also affects carbon emissions, the production of timber and non-timber forest products, and habitat for forest species. Understanding the trade-offs and synergies between distinct services i...
This chapter discusses how more effective multilateral biodiversity agreements might be built post-2010, including creating targets that are likely to have more impact, and enhancing the links between science and policy. The chapter talks about three sets of biodiversity targets. First one is ‘red’ targets to address changes in biodiversity that ha...
In the arid metropolitan area of Phoenix, AZ, water resources play a vital role in maintaining and enhancing the urban ecosystem. There are several examples of “luxury” uses of water to create amenities not common to desert ecosystems: reduced temperatures, artificial lakes, golf courses, and abundant vegetation. In this study our goal was to appra...
The reliability of electrical power supply is amongst the conditions that inform house purchase decisions in all urban areas. Reliability depends in part on the conditions of the power generation and distribution infrastructures involved, and in part on environmental conditions. Its value to homeowners may be capitalised into the value of the house...
International trade increasingly brings previously separated geographical regions into contact with one another and increases the frequency of those contacts. These trends bring many benefits to the trading partners involved, but increasing international trade also facilitates the spread of pathogens and increases disease risks. The rapid growth of...
The Convention on Biological Diversity’s (2010) target to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss was achieved by very few countries. Why? We use the theory of conservation implicit in the Hotelling model of non-renewable resource pricing to analyze the problem, distinguishing between the benefits to countries where conservation takes place, and to ot...
The most unique feature of Earth is the existence of life, and the most extraordinary feature of life is its diversity. Approximately 9 million types of plants, animals, protists and fungi inhabit the Earth. So, too, do 7 billion people. Two decades ago, at the first Earth Summit, the vast majority of the world's nations declared that human actions...
This paper presents a model of the problem on floodplain development, exploring the conditions that are both necessary and sufficient for development to be optimal. The model is calibrated for a particular catchment, the Ouse catchment in the United Kingdom, and is used both to estimate the expected impact of floodplain development and to explore t...
24 DIVERSITAS, the international programme on biodiversity science, is releasing a strategic vision presenting scientific challenges for the next decade of research on biodiversity and ecosystem services: ''Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Science for a Sustainable Planet''. This new vision is a response of the biodiversity and ecosystem service...
Of all the expected impacts of climate change, the most significant is likely to be the change in the availability of freshwater associated with changing precipitation. The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report notes that all regions of the world are expected to experience a net negative impact on water resources and f...
The sustainability of power infrastructures depends on their reliability. One test of the reliability of an infrastructure is its ability to function reliably in extreme environmental conditions. Effective planning for reliable electrical systems requires knowledge of unscheduled outage sources, including environmental and social factors. Despite m...
One measure of the resilience of any dynamical system is the speed of return to equilibrium following perturbation. In electrical power distribution systems this may be approximated by the duration of unscheduled outages due to failure of the distribution system (i.e., excluding outages due to failure of the generation or transmission systems). We...
Response CURL MAKES A VALID POINT ABOUT THE BEHAVior of carbonate minerals on multimillion-year time scales. Our interest, though, is in the much shorter time scales of decades to centuries. Considering remaining uncertainties in measuring some aspects of the global carbon cycle and the relatively rapid environmental changes under way in the atmosp...
The precautionary principle is a mandate to tread cautiously when managing novel threats to the environment or human health. A major obstacle when applying the principle at the international level is disagreement about how precautionary efforts should be constrained to ensure that policy costs are proportional to the attained level of protection. P...
Highlights
► Human well-being depends on multiple ecosystem services, many of them being underpinned by biodiversity. ► Biodiversity continues to be lost at an unprecedented rate. ► Decision-makers and policy-makers require sound scientific foundation to secure the planet's biodiversity and ecosystem services, while contributing to human well-being...
After the collective failure to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity’s (CBD’s) 2010 target to substantially reduce biodiversity losses, the CBD adopted a plan composed of five strategic goals and 20 “SMART” (Specific, Measurable, Ambitious, Realistic, and Time-bound) targets, to be achieved by 2020. Here, an interdisciplinary group of sci...
Supply of international environmental public goods must meet certain conditions to be socially efficient, and several reasons explain why they are currently undersupplied. Diagnosis of the public goods failure associated with particular ecosystem services is critical to the development of the appropriate international response. There are two catego...
The optimal mix of biodiversity in semi-arid rangelands depends on the relative value of directly exploited species. Demand for directly exploited species then gives rise to derived demand for habitat. The paper seeks to model the decision problem that lies behind the optimal mix of species, including discrete irregular decisions that may involve s...
Biodiversity conservation has traditionally been seen as problem of protecting genetic diversity. It has had two dimensions: ex situ germ plasm preservation in zoos, aquaria and arboreta (and by extension, seed banks, tissue cultures and genomic libraries), and in situ species preservation in refugia, especially in megadiversity areas involving hig...
The science and management of infectious disease are entering a new stage. Increasingly public policy to manage epidemics focuses on motivating people, through social distancing policies, to alter their behavior to reduce contacts and reduce public disease risk. Person-to-person contacts drive human disease dynamics. People value such contacts and...
The reliability of electrical power supply is amongst the ambient conditions that inform house purchase decisions in all major cities. Where there is sufficient variation in outages and infrastructural conditions across an urban system it is possible to use hedonic price functions to estimate people's willingness to pay for more reliability in powe...
The regulating services provided by ecosystems are amongst the most important for the sustainability of resource use, and yet they are also amongst the least understood. This paper considers one set of regulating mechanisms - the buffering functions of wetlands - and considers the information needed to identify both the value of the services offere...
Assessments must provide conditional predictions of specific policy outcomes, at well-defined spatial and temporal scales.
