C.J.L. Murray’s research while affiliated with University of Washington and other places

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Publications (87)


Maternal Mortality Ratios in 2852 Chinese Counties, 1996-2015, and Achievement of Millennium Development Goal 5 in China: A Subnational Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2016
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September 2019

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34 Reads

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52 Citations

Obstetric Anesthesia Digest

J. Liang

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C. Kang

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H. Wang

( Lancet . 2019;393:241–252) Mortality for both mother and child have been falling at impressive rates in China over the past 2 decades. Nationwide, maternal mortality dropped from 111.0 per 100,000 livebirths in 1990 to 21.8 per 100,000 livebirths in 2015. However, child mortality has varied substantially among counties and maternal mortality might also vary widely among counties. Identifying counties experiencing less progress could help guide the Chinese government in allocating extra resources as needed to meet the Millennium Development Goal 5 (MDG 5) of decreasing the maternal mortality rate by 75% between 1990 and 2015. This study aimed to estimate the maternal mortality ratio in 2852 counties in China between 1996 and 2015 and determine the effects of key factors such as economic development and maternal education on maternal mortality.


Figure 1. Average Annual Percentage Change in Age-Standardized Incidence Rate in Both Sexes for All Cancers From 2007 to 2017
Figure 2. Average Annual Percentage Change in Age-Standardized Mortality Rate in Both Sexes for All Cancers From 2007 to 2017
Figure 3. Cancers Ranked by Absolute Years of Life Lost (YLLs) Among Both Sexes Between 2007 and 2017 a
Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017. JAMA Oncology.
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August 2019

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119 Reads

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3 Citations

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Figure 2: Development assistance for health by channel and health focus area, 1990-2017 Development assistance for health annual estimates and annualised growth rates, disaggregated by channel (A, B) and health focus area (C, D). Estimates are shown from 1990 to 2017, in billions of 2017 US$. Growth rates are shown for 2000-10, and 2010-17. Gavi channel annualised growth rates were excluded from panel B because of high annualised growth rates between 2000 and 2010, resulting from large increases in funding from the organisation's inception (in 2000) to 2010. World Bank includes the International Development Association and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; and regional development banks include the Inter-American Development Bank, the African Development Bank, and the Asian Development Bank. NGOs=non-governmental organisations. Global Fund=The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Gavi=Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. UNFPA=United Nations Population Fund. UNAIDS=Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. PAHO=Pan American Health Organization. SWAP/HSS=sector-wide approaches/health system strengthening. *Data for 2017 are preliminary estimates based on budget data and estimation. 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 *
Figure 4: HIV/AIDS spending, 2000-15 HIV/AIDS spending by (A) income group, (B) source, (C) function, and (D) prevalence group. Spending is reported in 2017 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars. Income groups are based on 2017 World Bank income groups. Income group specifies where the resources were spent, not the source of the funds. HIV/AIDS prevalence data are from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. 21
Figure 5: Annualised rate of change of HIV/AIDS spending per prevalent case, 2000-10 (A), and 2010-15 (B), by source and prevalence group Annualised rate of change of government and out-of-pocket spending on HIV/AIDS, and development assistance for HIV/AIDS. Number of prevalent cases date to 2015 and are sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. 21 Error bars represent 95% uncertainty intervals.
Figure 6: Domestic HIV/AIDS spending, development assistance for HIV/AIDS, and number of people living with HIV/AIDS, 2015 The size of each pie represents the number of people living with HIV/AIDS in 2015, in each specified Global Burden of Disease super-region. Domestic spending includes out-of-pocket, government, and prepaid private spending. Number of prevalent cases date to 2015, and are sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. 21
Figure 7: Spending, population size, and disability-adjusted life-years overall and for HIV/AIDS, by income group, 2015 Income groups are 2017 World Bank income groups.
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (The Lancet (2017) 390(10100) (1423–1459)

October 2017

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458 Reads

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7 Citations

The Lancet

GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.


Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

September 2017

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385 Reads

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31 Citations

The Lancet

GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390: 1423–59—In figure 8B of this Article (published Online First on Sept 12, 2017), the number of indicator targets has been changed from 1 to 9 for Turkmenistan, from 0 to 1 for Afghanistan, and from 1 to 2 for Yemen. Ettore Beghi, Neeraj Bhala, Hélène Carabin, Raimundas Lunevicius, Donald H Silberberg, and Caitlyn Steiner have been added to the list of GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Their affiliations, along with the affiliation of Soumya Swaminathan, have been added to the Affiliations section. These corrections have been made to the online version as of Sept 18, 2017, and the printed Article is correct.




Figure 1. Global age patterns of prevalence and incidence of untreated caries in deciduous teeth, untreated caries in permanent teeth, severe periodontitis, and total tooth loss in 2015 for both sexes combined. 
Figure 2. World map of age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates (per 1,000 population) for all oral conditions combined in 2015, both sexes. 
Figure 3. World map of disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for all oral conditions combined in 2015, both sexes. 
Global, Regional, and National Prevalence, Incidence, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for Oral Conditions for 195 Countries, 1990–2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors

April 2017

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3,623 Reads

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1,584 Citations

Journal of Dental Research

The Global Burden of Disease 2015 study aims to use all available data of sufficient quality to generate reliable and valid prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) estimates of oral conditions for the period of 1990 to 2015. Since death as a direct result of oral diseases is rare, DALY estimates were based on years lived with disability, which are estimated only on those persons with unmet need for dental care. We used our data to assess progress toward the Federation Dental International, World Health Organization, and International Association for Dental Research’s oral health goals of reducing the level of oral diseases and minimizing their impact by 2020. Oral health has not improved in the last 25 y, and oral conditions remained a major public health challenge all over the world in 2015. Due to demographic changes, including population growth and aging, the cumulative burden of oral conditions dramatically increased between 1990 and 2015. The number of people with untreated oral conditions rose from 2.5 billion in 1990 to 3.5 billion in 2015, with a 64% increase in DALYs due to oral conditions throughout the world. Clearly, oral diseases are highly prevalent in the globe, posing a very serious public health challenge to policy makers. Greater efforts and potentially different approaches are needed if the oral health goal of reducing the level of oral diseases and minimizing their impact is to be achieved by 2020. Despite some challenges with current measurement methodologies for oral diseases, measurable specific oral health goals should be developed to advance global public health.



Erratum: Correction to Lancet HIV ((2016) 3 (e361–87)(S235230181630087X)(10.1016/S2352-3018(16)30087-X)

September 2016

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253 Reads

The Lancet HIV

GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet HIV 2016; 3: e361–87—In this Article, Kerrie E Doyle and David M Pereira have been added to the list of collaborators and Claudia C Pereira has been removed. These corrections have been made as of Aug 22, 2016.


Global Burden of Untreated Caries

March 2015

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1,363 Reads

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1,302 Citations

Journal of Dental Research

We aimed to consolidate all epidemiologic data about untreated caries and subsequently generate internally consistent prevalence and incidence estimates for all countries, 20 age groups, and both sexes for 1990 and 2010. The systematic search of the literature yielded 18,311 unique citations. After screening titles and abstracts, we excluded 10,461 citations as clearly irrelevant to this systematic review, leaving 1,682 for full-text review. Furthermore, 1,373 publications were excluded following the validity assessment. Overall, 192 studies of 1,502,260 children aged 1 to 14 y in 74 countries and 186 studies of 3,265,546 individuals aged 5 y or older in 67 countries were included in separate metaregressions for untreated caries in deciduous and permanent teeth, respectively, using modeling resources from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study. In 2010, untreated caries in permanent teeth was the most prevalent condition worldwide, affecting 2.4 billion people, and untreated caries in deciduous teeth was the 10th-most prevalent condition, affecting 621 million children worldwide. The global age-standardized prevalence and incidence of untreated caries remained static between 1990 and 2010. There is evidence that the burden of untreated caries is shifting from children to adults, with 3 peaks in prevalence at ages 6, 25, and 70 y. Also, there were considerable variations in prevalence and incidence between regions and countries. Policy makers need to be aware of a predictable increasing burden of untreated caries due to population growth and longevity and a significant decrease in the prevalence of total tooth loss throughout the world from 1990 to 2010. © International & American Associations for Dental Research 2015.


Citations (76)


... The trend may be linked to the shift in more frequent causes of maternal death towards factors that are difficult to detect and avoid, for example cardiovascular and other noncommunicable diseases 12,46 . Studies have found that a low level of education and health literacy, as well as the limited availability of MCH resources may also trigger a higher MMR in rural areas 47,48 . These firmly entrenched factors make it difficult to reduce the MMR further. ...

Reference:

Trends in maternal and child health in China and its urban and rural areas from 1991 to 2020: a joinpoint regression model
Maternal Mortality Ratios in 2852 Chinese Counties, 1996-2015, and Achievement of Millennium Development Goal 5 in China: A Subnational Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2016
  • Citing Article
  • September 2019

Obstetric Anesthesia Digest

... Previous studies on child nutrition trends and SDG attainment projections have buttressed our findings on the potential overall reduction in wasting prevalence when these selected SDG-related indicators improvement targets are met [21,26,27]. Childhood wasting is associated with low maternal education, poor household wealth, maternal unemployment, poor sanitation, unimproved water sources, and limited access to healthcare [12,[28][29][30][31][32][33]. ...

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The Lancet

... Interpersonal trust was significantly correlated with epidemic control efficiency indicators, including overall control speed (worldwide: r Table S5), which is an indicator of epidemic severity. Considering that personal health-care access and quality in a country may influence the relationship, to eliminate confusion about medical competence, we ran a partial correlation between institutional trust and CFR controlling for the countries' Healthy Access and Quality Index (Fullman et al., 2017). When the personal income per US state and Gini index were controlled, the negative association remained marginally significant (worldwide: r(41) = -.270, ...

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (The Lancet (2017) 390(10100) (1423–1459)

The Lancet

... They analyzed the mortality of children under age 2, using what would be described here as a latent frailty model based on a beta-binomial model for survival. Their approach was used by the World Health Organization and led to a series of spirited arguments about the proper attention to pay to between-group and within-group variation (Braveman, Krieger, and Lynch 2000;Murray, Gakidou, and Frenk 2000). ...

Response to P. Braveman et al.
  • Citing Article
  • January 2000

Bulletin of the World Health Organization

... Dental caries is the most common oral disease in the world, affecting both adults and children. According to statistics presented on the most important dental event, World Oral Health Day (WOHD), it is estimated that despite treatment and continuous improvement in prevention, as many as 2.4 billion people have caries of permanent teeth, and 530 million children suffer from caries of deciduous teeth [1,2]. In conservative dentistry, the treatment of tooth decay involves removing the infected dentin and restoring the structure and function of the tooth using an appropriate material. ...

Global, Regional, and National Prevalence, Incidence, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for Oral Conditions for 195 Countries, 1990–2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors

Journal of Dental Research

... For example, non-smoking medical doctors who engage in regular physical activity and have good nutritional habits and a healthy body composition are more likely to prescribe lifestyle behavioural changes and are perceived as more credible by their patients in general [1][2][3][4][5][6]. A healthy lifestyle behaviour has been repeatedly mentioned as the most important countermeasure in order to prevent non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and for that reason, it is crucial to have medical doctors on board, as they are considered as the representatives of 'health' by their direct environment [7][8][9]. NCDs are the leading cause of death and morbidity globally, being responsible for approximately 70% of all deaths [7][8][9]. While the World Health Organisation (WHO) has attributed 51% of South African deaths to NCDs, it is clear that people of all age groups, regions and countries are vulnerable to the risk factors contributing to NCDs. ...

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015 - Supplementary Information 1

... The risk of bias was assessed at the level of each primary outcome, using the RoB-2 Excel tool algorithm [45], study outcomes were considered as low risk of bias if all domains scored as "low risk"; some concerns when at least one domain was labelled as "some concerns" and high risk when at least one domain scored as "high risk of bias". Based on previous literature, to assess the comparative response to iron supplementation an effect size of 1 g/dL for hemoglobin was considered clinically signi cant [46,47]. ...

Comparative quantification of health risks: global and regional burden of disease attributable to selected major risk factors
  • Citing Article
  • January 2004

... Different economic activities were hit by the worsening of the pandemic situation (Papava, 2020). Numerous studies have shown that the health of the population has an impact on economic well-being and economic growth (Bhargava et al., 2006). Based on several studies, the impact of the coronavirus is expected to negatively affect food supply, inequality, democracy, human rights and development, pollution, education, urban and rural development, gender equality, poverty, trade activities, and globalization (Czech et al., 2020). ...

Modeling the effects of health on economic growth

... Si bien la referencia para esta medición son los indicadores objetivos, como los exámenes de gabinete, físicos, de laboratorio, etc., el elevado costo que representa recolectar este tipo de información ha hecho imperativo que se propongan evaluaciones alternativas que, a menor costo, ofrezcan datos confiables. [1][2][3] Se ha propuesto una gran cantidad de métodos como alternativa a las mediciones objetivas; algunos combinan la mortalidad, la morbilidad y otros aspectos relacionados con el estado de salud no fatal como fuente de información. [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] En tiempos recientes, las metodologías basadas en la autopercepción de salud han cobrado gran importancia debido a su bajo costo y a la relativa facilidad que representa su implementación en encuestas nacionales. ...

Summary measures of population health in the context of the WHO framework for health system performance assessment. En: Murray CJL, Salomon A, Mathers C, Lopez A (comp)
  • Citing Article
  • January 2002