C.J.L. Murray's research while affiliated with University of Washington Seattle and other places

Publications (87)

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(Lancet. 2019;393:241–252) Mortality for both mother and child have been falling at impressive rates in China over the past 2 decades. Nationwide, maternal mortality dropped from 111.0 per 100,000 livebirths in 1990 to 21.8 per 100,000 livebirths in 2015. However, child mortality has varied substantially among counties and maternal mortality might...
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GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
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GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390: 1423–59—In figure 8B of this Article (published Online First on Sept 12, 2017), the number of indicator...
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The Global Burden of Disease 2015 study aims to use all available data of sufficient quality to generate reliable and valid prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) estimates of oral conditions for the period of 1990 to 2015. Since death as a direct result of oral diseases is rare, DALY estimates were based on years lived wit...
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GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet HIV 2016; 3: e361–87—In this Article, Kerrie E Doyle and David M Pereira have been added to the list of collaborators and Claudia C Pereira has been removed. These correction...
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We aimed to consolidate all epidemiologic data about untreated caries and subsequently generate internally consistent prevalence and incidence estimates for all countries, 20 age groups, and both sexes for 1990 and 2010. The systematic search of the literature yielded 18,311 unique citations. After screening titles and abstracts, we excluded 10,461...
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We aimed to consolidate all epidemiologic data about severe periodontitis (SP) and, subsequently, to generate internally consistent prevalence and incidence estimates for all countries, 20 age groups, and both sexes for 1990 and 2010. The systematic search of the literature yielded 6,394 unique citations. After screening titles and abstracts, we ex...
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The goal of the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study has been to systematically produce comparable estimates of the burden of 291 diseases and injuries and their associated 1,160 sequelae from 1990 to 2010. We aimed to report here internally consistent prevalence and incidence estimates of severe tooth loss for all countries, 20 age groups, and both...
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The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 Study produced comparable estimates of the burden of 291 diseases and injuries in 1990, 2005, and 2010. This article reports on the global burden of untreated caries, severe periodontitis, and severe tooth loss in 2010 and compares those figures with new estimates for 1990. We used disability-adjusted life-ye...
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Measuring the health state of individuals is important for the evaluation of health interventions, monitoring individual health progress, and as a critical step in measuring the health of populations. Over the past three decades, there has been great progress in developing instruments to measure the multiple domains of health that are reliable and
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The objective of this study is to determine whether existing data sources from household interview based surveys conducted in a large number of countries may be used towards estimating the distribution and levels of severity of non-fatal health at the population level. Operationally, this objective addresses two main questions: 1. Is there informat...
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Measuring the health state of individuals is important for the evaluation of health interventions, monitoring individual health progress, and as a critical step in measuring the health of populations. Self-report responses in household survey data are widely used for assessing the non-fatal health status of populations. These data typically take th...
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Household surveys in developing countries often lack modules on income and ex- penditure. Even in cases where they may be included, the resulting estimates show substantial measurement error and are subject to systematic reporting biases. In order to overcome these problems, some analysts have constructed indices based on factor or principal compon...
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We used data from various sources to triangulate to a national snapshot of the incidence of fatal and non-fatal road traffic injuries in Mexico in 2005. Data sources used include national death registration data, national hospital discharge data and a nationally representative health survey. We estimate that in 2005, 19,389 people died due to injur...
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To use a range of existing information sources to develop a national snapshot of the burden of road traffic injuries in one developing country-Iran. The distribution of deaths was estimated by using data from the national death registration system, hospital admissions and outpatient visits from a time-limited hospital registry in 12 of 30 provinces...
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This paper investigates the effects of health indicators such as adult survival rates (ASR) on GDP growth rates at 5-year intervals in several countries. Panel data were analyzed on GDP series based on purchasing power adjustments and on exchange rates. First, we developed a framework for modeling the inter-relationships between GDP growth rates an...
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The initial Global Burden of Disease study found that depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden, accounting for 3.7% of total disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in the world in 1990. To present the new estimates of depression burden for the year 2000. DALYs for depressive disorders in each world region were calculated, based on...
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Objetivo. Estimación el impacto poblacional en términos de salud y costes que tendría la reducción del riesgo asociado con la hipercolesterolemia y la hipertensión en diferentes regiones del mundo Diseño. Estudio de coste-efectividad Emplazamiento. Catorce subregiones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), centrándose particularmente en tres...
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Background: Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been in the context of individual risk factors, Often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability. Our aim was to estimate the contributions of selec...
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This paper investigates the effects of health indicators such as adult survival rates (ASR) on GDP growth rates at 5-year intervals in several countries. Panel data were analyzed on GDP series based on purchasing power adjustments and on exchange rates. First, we developed a framework for modeling the inter-relationships between GDP growth rates an...
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One overall challenge for public health and medicine in the future is to allocate available resources effectively to reduce major causes of disease burden globally and to decrease health disparities between poor and affluent populations. The major risk factors for death and disability worldwide are malnutrition; poor water supply, sanitation, and p...
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Several guidelines on cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) already exist. There are two reasons for producing another set. The first is that traditional or incremental CEA ignores the question of whether the current mix of interventions represents an efficient use of resources. Secondly, the resources required to evaluate the large number of intervent...
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In the above commentary, Braveman et al. criticize our papers (1, 2) for taking health inequalities across individuals as the starting point for efforts to standardize and promote the comparable measurement of inequality in health across populations. They interpret our approach as an attempt to "discredit research on social inequalities in health"...
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Both health inequalities and social group health differences are important aspects of measuring population health. Despite widespread recognition of their magnitude in many high- and low-income countries, there is considerable debate about the meaning and measurement of health inequalities, social group health differences and inequities. The lack o...
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The WHO Advisory Committee on Health Research (ACHR), through its DALY Review Group, has recently criticized the use of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). To suggest that the use of DALYs should be discouraged as an aid in health resource allocation may, however, be premature, since it enhances informed debate on the social values that influen...
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This paper describes in broad terms the first national assessment of the burden of disease using Disability Adjusted Life Years, which formed part of an overall study of health system reform in Mexico. The overall project, ‘Health and the Economy: proposals for improving the Health System in Mexico’, is one of the first experiences of applying the...
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Detailed assumptions used in constructing a new indicator of the burden of disease, the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), are presented. Four key social choices in any indicator of the burden of disease are carefully reviewed. First, the advantages and disadvantages of various methods of calculating the duration of life lost due to a death at e...
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As part of the background research to the World development report 1993: investing in health, an effort was made to estimate public, private and total expenditures on health for all countries of the world. Estimates could be found for public spending for most countries, but for private expenditure in many fewer countries. Regressions were used to p...
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Conventional methods for collecting, analysing and disseminating data and information on disability in populations have relied on cross-sectional censuses and surveys which measure prevalence in a given period. While this may be relevant for defining the extent and demographic pattern of disabilities in a population, and thus indicating the need fo...
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Demographic estimation techniques suggest that worldwide about 50 million deaths occur each year, of which about 39 million are in the developing countries. In countries with adequate registration of vital statistics, the age at death and the cause can be reliably determined. Only about 30-35% of all deaths are captured by vital registration (exclu...
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The role of health systems infrastructure in studies of cost-effectiveness analysis and health resource allocation is discussed, and previous health sector cost-effectiveness analyses are cited. Two substantial difficulties concerning the nature of health system costs and the policy choices are presented. First, the issue of health system infrastru...
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This study, which was conducted for the World Bank's World development report 1993: investing in health, provides an objective analysis of the external assistance to the health sector by quantifying in detail the sources and recipients of such assistance in 1990, by analysing time trends for external assistance to the health sector over the last tw...
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A basic requirement for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of health interventions is a comprehensive assessment of the amount of ill health (premature death and disability) attributable to specific diseases and injuries. A new indicator, the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), was developed to assess the burden of disease and injury i...
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Detailed assumptions used in constructing a new indicator of the burden of disease, the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), are presented. Four key social choices in any indicator of the burden of disease are carefully reviewed. First, the advantages and disadvantages of various methods of calculating the duration of life lost due to a death at e...
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Adults, defined here as people between 15 and 59 years of age, in developing countries have a high risk of premature death and suffer from frequent morbidity and high rates of chronic impairment. Their ill health imposes a major burden on health services and large negative consequences on families, communities, and societies. This paper describes t...
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Social, economic and operational research has already contributed to the growing global awareness of the neglected burden of tuberculosis on individuals, families and communities. These studies have also illustrated that short-course chemotherapy for smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis is a highly cost-effective tool for combatting tuberculosis....
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If every disease caused morbidity in known proportion to the mortality it causes, then mortality rates would be an adequate proxy both for the overall burden of adult ill-health and for the contribution to that burden of each specific disease or cause. Consequently, adult mortality rates capture only a portion of the burden of illness, and cause-sp...
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The value of programmes to control pulmonary tuberculosis in developing countries remains the subject of debate. We have examined the cost-effectiveness of chemotherapy programmes for the control of pulmonary sputum-smear-positive tuberculosis in Malawi, Mozambique, and Tanzania. Effective cure rates of 86-90% were achieved with short-course chemot...
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The Commission on Health Research for Development is an independent, international commission composed of 12 leaders from the fields of health research, social science research and development policy. Chaired by John Evans, the other Commissioners are Gelia Castillo, vice-chair, F. H. Abed, Sune Bergstrom, Doris Calloway, Esmat Ezzat, Demissie Habt...
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This paper addresses the issue of cross-population comparability of economic status indices estimated from household-level indicator variables on consumer durables using latent variable statistical models. The problem is similar to the one faced in estimation of PPPs. The same basket of consumer durables need not imply the same level of economic st...