October 2024
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Importance: Given the rising prevalence of anxiety, depression, and eating disorders among college students, optimizing population treatment outcomes for the college population is needed. Objective: To validate a machine learning model using baseline sociodemographic and clinical information to predict which college students would show long-term benefits from transdiagnostic guided self-help (GSH).Design: Full populations of college students were screened, and those over 18 and with or at risk for anxiety, depression, or eating disorders were randomized to GSH or control. In a secondary analysis, we used baseline variables to predict those who did (n=1,380 students) or did not (n=1,723) remit from any anxiety, depression, and eating disorder at two-year follow-up following GSH. Setting: The trial was conducted across 26 U.S. colleges and universities between October 2019 and December 2023.Participants: Those with or at risk of a DSM-5 diagnosis of panic disorder (PD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), social anxiety disorder (SAD), depression, and/or eating disorders (EDs) (excluding anorexia nervosa) were enrolled. Intervention(s): Participants received transdiagnostic cognitive-behavioral GSH via SilverCloud Health. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s): Discriminatory accuracy of a Super Learner algorithm trained for the binary classification of prevention and remission of all (GAD, SAD, PD, depression, and EDs) disorders at a 2-year follow-up based on baseline features.Results: Of 3,103 participants within GSH (Mage = 20.2; SD ± 4.0), 70.4% identified as female and 64.6% as white. A Super Learner algorithm achieved acceptable discriminatory accuracy with an AUC of .77 (95% CI = .74-.79) to distinguish the probability of 2-year prevention and remission from depression, anxiety, and eating disorders (threshold, .485; accuracy, .72, sensitivity, .71; specificity, .72; PPV, .68; NPV, .75). Higher baseline severity in depression, anxiety, and binge eating were associated with an increased probability of non-remission, whereas those who identified as male and with better mental health quality of life were associated with an increased probability of prevention and remission. Conclusion and relevance: Routinely collected pre-treatment data may identify 2-year outcome variability from GSH, thereby potentially facilitating population-level mental health care delivery on college campuses.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04162847