Burton G. Malkiel’s research while affiliated with Princeton University and other places

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Publications (87)


Tastings at Tea Time: The Princeton Wine Group
  • Article
  • Full-text available

February 2024

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50 Reads

Journal of Wine Economics

Burton G. Malkiel

This is the story of the Princeton Wine Group, a group whose membership has been relatively constant for almost 40 years. This group has enjoyed 244 blind tastings involving 1,708 different wines. A statistical analysis was performed at each tasting examining whether participants ranked the quality of wines similarly and whether the preferences of the group were correlated with several variables including professional wine ratings and the prices of the wine. The article concludes with a discussion of lessons learned from a lifetime of wine tastings.

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Actual and predicted VIX index: 1998–April 2018
Has the VIX index been manipulated?

February 2019

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207 Reads

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16 Citations

Journal of Asset Management

Recently, an influential academic study and many lawsuits have claimed that the VIX index has been manipulated since 2008. In this paper, we construct a regression model with explanatory variables that are exogenous to the index and examine the model prediction errors. We find that the movements in the daily levels of the VIX index are explained by market fundamentals and not by manipulation. We also specifically examine the VIX futures expiration days and demonstrate that the VIX closing values and VIX futures settlements prices on those days are consistent normal market forces and are not artificial.



Option Writing: Using VIX to Improve Returns

December 2018

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341 Reads

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4 Citations

The Journal of Derivatives

Buy-write and put-write strategies have been shown to match market returns with lower volatility, resulting in higher risk-adjusted performance. The strategies benefit from the fact that the implied volatility of options is generally higher than actual realized volatility. In this article, we show that this premium is higher at elevated levels of implied volatility (as represented by the VIX index level). Based on this finding, we propose a simple conditional strategy in which one sells options at elevated levels of the VIX. Using data from 1990 through 2018, we find that this conditional strategy outperforms both the market and continuous option-selling strategies on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis.


Citations (70)


... Corporate idiosyncratic risk, which is characterized by the idiosyncratic volatility of a stock price, depends on the volatility of the company's future cash flows and discount rate, as well as their covariance (Campbell et al., 2022). It is influenced by the company's internal governance and the external environment (Habib & Hasan, 2017). ...

Reference:

Make it Right: Regulatory Intervention in Managers’ Misconduct and Corporate Risk
Idiosyncratic Equity Risk Two Decades Later
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... In other words, the EMH postulates that asset prices should be based on all available information. A growing literature has critically examined the EMH (Malkiel 2003) and some recent research has shown that early signs of unpredictable news may be obtained from social media in order to forecast changes in many economic and financial indicators (Schumaker and Chen 2009). If it is true that the news affects stock market prices, the social mood also plays an equally important role. ...

Response : The Efficient Market Hypothesis
  • Citing Article
  • June 1989

Science

... The taxation of nominal capital gains at disposition creates a potential lock-in effect in real estate and other asset markets (Feldstein et al., 1980;Klein, 1999;Malkiel & Kane, 1963). Rather than disposing of an asset with a lower expected before-tax return and reinvesting the proceeds in a more productive (higher return asset), investors with accrued capital gains may choose to continue to hold the less productive asset to avoid realizing taxable gains. ...

U. S. TAX LAW AND THE LOCKED-IN EFFECT
  • Citing Article
  • December 1963

National Tax Journal

... Ammann and Verhofen (2006) examined fund performance in regimes based on returns, volatilities, and correlations and suggested that investors alter their portfolio style over time depending on the prevailing regime to generate attractive returns. Malkiel and Saha (2020) examined funds based on factors of lowest expense ratio, lowest turnover, and Sharpe ratio and found no difference between the absolute returns from the Large-Cap or Mid-Cap returns. Joop and Verbeek (2009) suggested fund performance suffered from systematic biases due to miscalculation of factor premiums. ...

Mutual Fund Returns and Their Characteristics: A Simple Approach to Selecting Better Performing Actively-Managed Funds
  • Citing Article
  • February 2020

The Journal of Investing

... Andersen et al. (2015) highlight that deviations in the VIX index from actual market volatility may occur due to the inclusion of illiquid options. Similarly, Saha et al. (2019) demonstrate that variations in daily VIX levels are predominantly driven by market fundamentals. Under the framework of perception alignment, the expectations of traders regarding future prices shape the future price density. ...

Has the VIX index been manipulated?

Journal of Asset Management

... Today, portfolio managers who wish to employ options can review these authors' separate comments and descriptions with considerable benefit. Missing fron both '!u!,t!, !'*!'3:l: ll *' yf!_ig,t q!:y_t,fir:ti?! *i1! 1. Footnotes appear at the end of article Ronald Sliaka is Vice Presidott of Morgan Guaranty Trust Company of Nant York. ...

Strategies and Rational Decisions in the Securities Options Market.
  • Citing Article
  • September 1970

The Journal of Finance

... Unit root tests and variance ratio tests are widely used in literature to test for stock market efficiency in the econometric and financial literature. The notion of efficiency is typically interpreted as that stock prices would move unpredictably (Malkiel, 2003(Malkiel, , 2004(Malkiel, , 2005. The logic behind this random walk idea is that if the flow of information is unimpeded and information is immediately reflected in stock prices, tomorrow's price changes will reflect only tomorrow's news and will be independent of price changes today. ...

Can predictable patterns in market returns be exploited using real money?
  • Citing Article
  • September 2004

The Journal of Portfolio Management

... Financial markets are "informationally efficient," according to EMH, which implies that asset prices accurately reflect all available information at any given moment. Initially formally introduced by Eugene Fama (Fama, 1970) and subsequently popularised by (Malkiel, 1989), the EMH posits that it is impossible to consistently achieve higher returns than the overall market through stock selection or market timing, except by coincidence. There are three forms of market efficiency: ...

Efficient Market Hypothesis
  • Citing Article
  • January 1989