Brock R Matthews’s scientific contributions

A comparative study was performed that included the analysis of demographic and competitive rating data for boys’ and girls’ interscholastic high school ice hockey teams located in North America. A composite rating profile was generated using SportsoftTM windows-based software (least-squares method) that reduced the raw game scores of over 114,000 unique games played by 8,635 boys’ and girls’ teams in both United States and Canada between the ages of 13 to 21. The least-square adjustment results in 105,430 degrees of freedom (DOFs). Individual male and female rating profiles for each United States state high school league were extracted, tabulated, trend lines plotted and analyzed. State rating profiles were grouped by region and comparative graphs were plotted. Rating profiles were generated for Girls’ HS leagues and compared to both corresponding boys’ HS varsity teams and boys’ Bantam feeder teams where applicable. It was determined that on average the boys’ Bantam (ages 13 & 14 years old) teams had a 4.8 goal advantage over their corresponding girls varsity HS (ages 15 to 18 years old) teams, and the boys’ varsity HS (ages 15 to 18 years old) teams had a 13.4 goal advantage over the girls varsity team. The predicted increase of 8.6 goals per game, ie. the approximate predicted winning margins from 5 to 13 goals, equates to a 160% advantage increase that the teams composed of genetic males who have undergone puberty have over comparably aged genetic female teams.

A preliminary study was performed to test the feasibility of using a least-squares model to predict the outcome of boy's high school hockey games. A ratings profile was generated for the boys 2022-2023 Minnesota State High School League (MSHSL) using the results of the completed regular season games. This profile was subsequently using to predict (win/lose) game outcomes and score differentials for the post-season play-off games leading up to the Minnesota State High School Ice Hockey Tournament. The least-squares model was better than the human based seeding process by 6 percentage points (91% vs. 85%). In addition, other statistical outcomes are discussed.

2020-2021 Metro Network Boys HS hockey

A comparative study was performed that included the analysis of demographic and competitive rating data for boys' interscholastic high school ice hockey teams located in the North America. A composite rating profile was generated using Sportsoft TM windows-based software (least-squares method) that reduced the raw game scores of over 146,000 games played by 5,479 boys' teams in both United States and Canada between the ages of 15 to 18. Individual rating profiles for each state high school league were extracted, tabulated, trend lines plotted and analysed. State rating profiles were grouped by region and comparative graphs were plotted using the state of Minnesota as a common benchmark.

SPORTSOFT is a windows-based rating/ranking software designed to rate sports teams and leagues based on in-season game results data. It is free to download, and its free demo mode defaults to a maximum of 10 teams within a league/and/or network of teams.

The demographics of women's ice hockey played in North America can be explored in many ways by categorizing several of its attributes that describe who plays hockey, where they play it and how many people are involved. Hand in hand with these questions is the analysis of game score data that uses the science and mathematics of rating systems to create ranking profiles of teams contained in these leagues. This study performed a North American-wide adjustment of women's and girls competitive hockey teams ranging from professionals, university varsity and college clubs, juniors and tiered clubs (CAN/AM 20U, 19U, 17U and 16U), hockey academies, prep schools, and secondary high schools in both Canada and the United States. In total, there were 2,104 teams included in the network that accounted for more than 29,000 games which had scores published on various league web sites. To examine the various levels of hockey across North America trend lines of the rating values were plotted which in essence captures the competitive gradient from top to bottom within any particular league of interest. The real significance and power behind this data set is that it gives the governing bodies of hockey a snapshot in time with respect to how their particular leagues rate against their peers and competitors. The same analyses performed on a yearly basis provides a time-series perspective which could indicate whether or not organizational objectives and goals are being met over the long term.

The use of running time protocol affected 18.3% of the hockey games played by the Girls Minnesota State High School League (MSHSL) and Wisconsin Interscholastic Athletic Association (WIAA) during the 2017-18 season. For the purposes of determining an accurate least squares rating profile of the teams in these two leagues, a correction term is derived, and applied to the raw game score to account for this known systematic error caused by running time clock management. During the analysis of league game data, it was found that the net effect of running time protocol varied with the magnitude of the final game score differential, and the time distribution of when goals were scored during each individual hockey game, i.e. the rate of scoring prior to the start of running time. Overall, it was observed that in 51.3% of these games that reached running time, the final raw game score differential was completely unaffected by the protocol, while in the remaining 48.7% of these games, the mean magnitude of the correction term was 1.052 goals per game. Averaging over all running time games, the average score correction is approximately one-half of a goal. Recommendations are made with respect to the justification of continuing the usage of running time in lop-sided high school level contests compared to the incremental increase in cost to these sporting events caused by running time.